Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Michigan President/Senate

Barack Obama 46
John McCain 43

The race has tightened in Michigan since PPP's last poll, with Barack Obama losing support from Republicans and white voters.

PPP's June Michigan poll showed 19% of self identified Republican voters crossing over to support Obama, but that figure has now been reduced to 9%. Obama also now trails 50-40 among white voters after holding a two point lead with them last month.

With Michigan almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans this is one state where the race could really come down to the choices of independent voters. While only 8% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans are undecided, 20% of those who don't identify with either party are.

Who are these independent voters? Compared to the general population they are disproportionately female, 46-65, and white. They support Obama by a small (42-38) margin in this survey, but also support Democrat Carl Levin for Senate and possible 2010 gubernatorial candidate Dennis Archer for Governor at a much higher rate than the rest of the population. These could be former Hillary supporters who aren't ready to jump to John McCain but are ambivalent about Obama. Maybe Obama and the Clintons need to spend more time campaigning in Michigan together.

Overall Levin continues to hold a dominating lead over Jack Hoogendyk, 54-35.

Full results here.

No comments:

Web Statistics