Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Virginia President/Senate

Barack Obama 46
John McCain 44

Barack Obama continues to hold a two point lead in Virginia, the same margin he showed in PPP's June poll of the state.

The contest in Virginia breaks out pretty much as one would expect. Obama has large leads among black voters (77-16) and other non-white voters (50-31) while leading in three out of four age categories. McCain's strength comes from white voters (53-36) and those over 65 (49-38).

Lingering concerns over party unity after the long fight for the nomination between Obama and Hillary Clinton don't appear to be a problem for Democrats in this state. Obama's 83-10 lead among Democrats shows an identical margin to the 84-11 one McCain has with Republicans. Obama has a 42-38 lead with independent voters.

While the polls have been all over the map in some states like Florida and Ohio, they're all showing an almost identical picture in Virginia. It seems safe to say this will be at the top of the list of closely contested states this fall.

Mark Warner 57
Jim Gilmore 32

There's no sign that the race for the state's open Senate seat is getting any closer. Even among Republicans Gilmore only leads 65-25, and Warner leads with pretty much every other subgroup of the survey.

Full results here.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Good news for Obama.

If he gets 31-33% from white voters, he will win Virginia because he will win more than 77% from Black voters(90-95%).

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