Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Interesting Stuff in Virginia

Because we don't want to poll over Memorial Day weekend we put our second to last Virginia primary poll in the field last night, and we'll release it Friday or Saturday.

We decided to look at the race this week in a new way: how are the folks who pretty much always vote in primaries leaning versus the preferences of people who turned out last year for the Presidential primary but did not vote in one of the primaries between 2005 and 2007?

A pretty clear divide is emerging. Among the frequent primary voters Terry McAuliffe, Brian Moran, and Creigh Deeds are basically in a three way statistical tie based on the interviews conducted so far. But among the more casual primary voters who did not find Webb-Miller compelling enough to head to the polls but who are intending to come out this time McAuliffe has a substantial lead.

It looks like it would be in Deeds and Moran's best interests for turnout to be as low as possible because if it does get up over 200,000 or so it appears, at least three weeks out, that McAuliffe would be the beneficiary.

Stay tuned for that later this week, and just a reminder of our schedule for Virginia, we'll be conducting a general election poll next weekend so the candidates' comparative November electability can be assessed and then we'll release one final primary poll the day before folks head to the polls.

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