Sunday, September 13, 2009

And the finalists are...

It's time for another round of 'vote on where we poll.' Thanks for all the great nominations. Voting will be open until Wednesday, then we'll do the survey next weekend and start releasing it a week from Tuesday.

The finalists are:

-Arizona. This is my personal favorite, as it was last month, because I think there's a lot of interesting material here. Number one is the Governor's race- Jan Brewer may be vulnerable both in the primary and in the general election. Number two is Obama's standing- for the most part I'm not into state level 2012 Presidential polling right now but we'd make an exception here because without John McCain at the top of the ticket this might be one of the most flippable states. And I'm also interested in McCain himself- how strong is his primary challenge and does he have any general election vulnerability? We'll test Janet Napolitano against him because nothing's ever impossible, but are there any more realistic people worth testing?

-California. I'm still interested in whether the Rasmussen poll showing Carly Fiorina within four points of Barbara Boxer had any merit to it and obviously the Governor's race is interesting too.

-Georgia. For most of the first half of 2009 I felt this was the Senate pick up possibility for 2010 that Democrats should have been paying attention to but weren't. That's mostly because we found Johnny Isakson with a 30% approval rating last fall and a high level of ambivalence toward him- very Burr like numbers. The downward trend for Democrats nationally has me less bullish on the potential competitiveness there but if things go back in the other direction I want to see if it's still a race worth watching. We'd probably look at some of the candidates in the crowded Democratic field for Governor against Isakson.

-Missouri. We haven't seen any polling on the Robin Carnahan-Roy Blunt match up since the Democratic recession started and I'm curious as to whether she's feeling it like everyone else.

-Ohio. We polled here three months ago and found John Kasich within the margin of error against Ted Strickland. I wouldn't be surprised given the way everything else has shifted since then if the GOP has the lead in that race now. Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher had solid leads over Rob Portman back then, and I wonder if that's changed as well.

Vote at the top of the page by 11 AM Wednesday morning!


Jamie said...

What would be truly wonderful is to work out a way to legitimately poll on line or on cell phones as I feel the current polling misses large pieces of the population due to technology.

Maybe people could self nominate to be available and then be selected for polls based upon their various categories ie age occupation education political affiliation etc.

Anonymous said...

C'mon, North Dakota didn't make the cut?

Jeff said...

Another reason Arizona will be interesting to poll: former Republican Governor Fife Symington is apparently thinking of getting his old job back whether or not Brewer runs. He resigned in 1997 over a fraud conviction that was later dropped. It will be good to know if he will be a factor in the race or whether the dropped conviction isn't enough to redeem him.

ytownMetz said...

If you poll Ohio, consider a question on Jim Traficant.... It will be interesting to see what people think of him.

Although he is a Democrat, he is very conservative and is staunchly against big government. Hell he spoke at a TEA PARTY yesterday.

Tom Jensen said...

In regards to North Dakota, we do all of our polling off voter lists and it's the one state that doesn't have one.

If it really becomes a major battleground in the Senate race next year we'll probably figure out a way to do it but we're not going to worry about it for now.

Anonymous said...

The only declared Democratic candidate in Arizona Senate: Rudy Garcia. He's a no name though.

Reed Shaw said...

We always need Virginia polling! let's see the full effect of McDonnell's thesis and, more comical, his F-bomb slip up.

Anonymous said...

Besides Garcia in Arizona, Rodney Glassman is another (no-name) who is considering running. I'd try maybe polling these c-tier candidates. (We have seen what c-tiers are doing to Reid and Lincoln)

Brandon said...

Would we test Georgia Governor (primary and general) if Georgia wins?

BlueCalico said...

Regarding MO, Roy Blunt v Carnahan is not a given. There's still a primary and Roy Blunt has competition.

As much as Blunt has been blowing his own horn, he's not as favored as he likes to think he is.

Many are very upset that he voted for the bailout.

Jeremy Young said...

In AZ, you might want to poll Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman against McCain. There's a lot of buzz surrounding this potential candidacy. If you're interested in a statewide elected official, an interesting candidate to poll would be newly-elected Corporation Commissioner Paul Newman, though chances are slim to none that he'd actually run this time.

Charles said...

My vote is Georgia.

Anonymous said...

In AZ:
Glossman vs McCain
Garcia vs McCain
Napolitano vs McCain
Phil Gordon vs McCain (wasn't there speculation he would get into the governors or senate race?)

Also for GA:
Isakson vs Thurbert Baker
Isakson vs DuBose Porter
Isakson vs Shirley Franklin (Wikipedia lists her as a potential candidate for governor, why not the senate?)

In California, Chuck Duvore, some Republican in the assembly keeps wanting to be talked about as a candidate.

Anonymous said...

What are the odds that you poll Indiana ?

It has not been polled since 1 year now.

herbstm_jair said...

Giffords vs McCain please

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