Monday, September 21, 2009

Odds and Ends

-The big question on our Arizona poll tomorrow is whether Barack Obama is set up to win the state in 2012, and the answer as of today is no. He is winning 9-10% of the 2008 McCain vote against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin but that's not quite enough.

-Two positive points for Obama from the poll though: only 3% of his 2008 voters disapprove of the job he's doing and independents are split 45-45 on his health care plan. That's the first poll we've done where indies weren't opposed. And he certainly doesn't seem to have a base problem in Arizona.

-Ty Harrell's resignation yesterday is good news for Democrats. With the problems he was having reelection next year looked close to impossible. It's still going to be a tough hold but if the right person gets appointed to take his place and they do a good job of making the best of their incumbency over the next year it will increase the chances of keeping it in Democratic hands. All other Democrats in swing districts with ethical clouds over their heads should take one for the team and go ahead and resign as well.

-Rush Limbaugh called me a 'huge liberal Democrat' on his show Friday. I'll take it as a compliment.


Anonymous said...

Tom, I think you need to repoll Colorado, to see if Jane Norton's candidacy has a major affect on that race.

Anonymous said...


You see the latest Daily Kos/Research 2K poll?

Obama's favorables are 3, 5, 6, and 8 points worse than his winning percentage on NOvember 4th in Congressional districts held by Mike Ross, Bart Stupak, John Barrow, and Henry Cuellar.,-MI-01,-GA-12,-TX-28:-These-Blue-Dog-districts-support-public-option,-even-if-tepid-on-Obama

It's tough to reconcile these numbers with any theory other than Obama is not viewed as favorably as he was on NOvember 4th and even by a fairly significant margin.

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