The time between Christmas and New Year's is not so hot for political polling so we won't have any new data out this week but come a week from today we'll be ready to get back in the field...where would you like to see us go for our first state poll of 2010? I'll take nominations for the next few days and put it to a vote starting late Wednesday or Thursday.
Whatever state we do, I'm pretty certain we'll finally get around to doing our Larry Kissell poll next week as well.
Hope everyone is enjoying the holidays. I've been in Michigan for the last five days and will be for another five and it's cold and snowy but it's home. Won't mind getting back to the south on Saturday though!
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31 comments:
How about the Utah Senate race. Make sure you are polling delegates instead of regular voters since the delegates nominate the candidate who goes on in the General Election
I would like to see Pennsylvania polled - or Maine and ask about Snowe/Collins unwilling to support health care
MA Senate Special, NH Senate, CT Senate
Montana, with additional specific questions on all three members of the delegation.
Nobody has yet had a public poll on Baucus trying to make his live-in girlfriend the US Attorney.
For Rehberg, nobody has asked any good questions on his stonewalling the press while his state director was in a coma after a crime when Rehberg was drunk and made his staff ride with a legislator who was more than twice as drunk.
For Tester, ask a question on his wilderness bill which is creating very interesting fissures.
Poll Rep. Peter King vs. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand for NY Senate Race.
>Florida primary and general for the senate
>Indiana Senate
>Illinois Senate
>Colorado Senate
>Pennsylvania Senate and Governor
>Arkansas Senate
>Connecticut Senate and Governor
Nevada!
Michigan,
EPIC-MRA found Obama's approval/disapproval at 44/55 (down from 54/39 in March) and his favorables at 49/45 (down from 67/26 in March).
http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Dec2009_Media_Freq.pdf
Perhaps you'll back them up? Also, we could see if Hoekstra is getting some juice in his primary for going after Obama hard on terror.
There has been 0 polls on the Alabama gubernatorial race and AL-SEN
What is going on in that race -- is Davis beating the Republicans?
And is Shelby that popular heading into a reelection race? Though it seems democrats won't be putting anyone major up against Shelby
Another idea is to poll by congressional district in Alabama. That way you could take an AL-SEN, AL-GOV, AL-05, AL-02, and AL-07 DEM Primary lay of the land.
CT-SEN/GOV with Blumenthal
OR-GOV
I am sure MI will be in play in 2012!
Since you had the chance to visit Michigan, why not a general poll of the approval ratings of Congress, the President, last few governors, etc. We've been in the dumps since the late 70's, and few organizations have done a consistent Obama approval rating poll in the state, which is weird since it has an open gubernatorial race that could lead to at least 3-4 competitive Congressional districts being redistricted out of existence.
There have only been a few polls in NH regarding the GOV and CD races. The Senate polls show Ayotte with a clear advantage but Incumbent Governor John Lynch may not run and even if he is some polls have shown him vulnerable to Former Senator John Sununu. Also, there are been no polling in the 2nd CD and very little in the 1st.
Florida or Michigan
Poll CA-8. Pelosi and the Dem Congress is staggeringly unpopular (at least nationally) and John Dennis has strong grassroots support from tea parties.
Also poll MA special senate race. Obama's support in MA was only as strong as his tally in NJ, where Christie won a majority of the vote count in a three way race (despite being outspent by a wide margin). MA may be closer than people would suspect. If Brown upsets Coakley, Obamacare is DOA.
I'll renominate Texas Governor for the general election. Good to see if Bill White starts out with good numbers or if Texas is just too red for him. Also will be good to see if there's a significant difference between Perry and Hutchinson's performance.
I think that Montana seems interesting, with Baucus' high-profile healthcare post and very close McCain margin, and Alaska has been surprisingly ignored. If you want a more mainstream choice, you can't go wrong with Ohio, a traditional swing state with close races for both the senate and governor's seat, with a pickup opportunity for both the Dems and the GOP.
Heath Shuler vs. "Bev" Perdue for democrat primary for NC governor. She's doing so poorly (as expected), I think she'll be primaried.
Montana IS interesting, but I'm biased anyway as an intern for the Democratic congressional campaign of Tyler Gernant ;)
Rehberg's favorability ratings aren't as high as they used to be even before the boat crash, DKos' last poll in March there showed that (46/45 favs).
I wouldn't be surprised if Baucus was also in the trasher, but he's not up for reelection soon anyway... and when you're at the point where your electorate mostly simply calls you 'Max', you don't have much to worry about.
Tester should be fine, but you could test a 2012 challenge by Rehberg.
Is Reid any safer after his healthcare bill passed? He has been the subject of some good news reports for passing something others haven't
NV-SEN
No one has polled New Mexico yet; with an open gubernatorial race and the current governor in the midst of numerous scandals, it would be an interesting look.
Also, two of the three congressional districts in the state have potential to be competitive.
Minnesota Democratic and Republican primaries and ask for likely caucusers. Also, don't poll Norm Coleman. Everyone in MN knows he isn't going to run.
I'd also be interested in NH Senate.
Missouri.
The US Senate Race hasn't had new public numbers in a while.
The NRCC is targeting Skelton in MO4 - there is a Repub primary there. Emerson in MO8 has a well funded Dem opponent and a Teabagger candidate to contend with.
Getting a pulse on the statewides and Obama would be nice too.
Do a Montana poll. Do a Rehberg vs. Tester 2012 poll, approval ratings, and see how many think Baucus was drunk speaking on the senate floor.
I would say MA special election. No one else seems interested in polling it, and since that election is actually about to happen--rather than in Nov 2010 or 2012--it seems the most relevant.
Please poll the Indiana Senate race between Bayh and Hostettler or Stutzman and Obama's approval there.
This race could be tighter right now than most people think.
A 2012 look at Obama vs. Daniels would be great too.
MA special. Last chance to do it.
Tom,
Are you going to put it up to a vote, or just pick one that seems to have some consensus?
Thanks!!
Do a Michigan 2012 poll. Stabenow may face a strong challenge from Secreatry of State Terri Lynn Land. With that, you could do a 2010 Governor poll, maybe a CD poll, and a Obama poll - all for Michigan.
I know it's too late, but I'd really like to see an OK CD2 (Dan Boren) poll done. Blue Dog Boren may be nigh unbeatable, but he's already drawn four Republican opponents, and may be primaried by a liberal. This would be an interesting district to poll on health care, as well, being the only Democratic district in Oklahoma (only represented by two Republicans since statehood - one around 1920, and Tom Coburn from 1994-2000).
I wish know about Connecticut. CT-Sen with Blumenthal and CT-Gov without Rell.
I wish know too about MN-Gov race with more republican candidates than Norm Coleman in republican side. Not only primaries.
I wish know too about VT-Gov race.
And finally im interested by HI-01 (Abercrombies seat).
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