Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Voting Time

Thanks for all your nominations, here are the finalists for where we poll this week:

-Alabama. There's been little public polling of the Governor's race but when we looked at it back in June it was pretty competitive. Is that still the case or have things turned against the Democrats there as they have in other places across the country?

-Connecticut. One word: Blumenthal. Time for public polling on whether this seat is one retirement away from going back into the safe category for Democrats.

-Florida. Disparate numbers on two recent Marco Rubio-Charlie Crist polls so it would be interesting to see another opinion.

-Illinois. Rasmussen showed Republican front runner Jim Ryan leading Democratic Governor Pat Quinn last week so I'm interested in some confirmation or non confirmation on that in addition of course to the Senate race.

-Massachusetts. There may or may not be anything to see here when it comes to the special election but we'd be interested to find out one way or another- and the Governor's race is looking competitive if nothing else.

Voting will be open until Monday morning and we'll go in the field Monday night with results starting to be released Wednesday or more likely Thursday.

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Massachusetts, followed closely by Alabama. Florida's being over-polled right now.

Timothy said...

Massachusetts. It's the more "urgent" race.

estuartj said...

No love for Colorado and Ohio?

Anonymous said...

I vote for Connecticut.

Is very interesting know numbers for Blumenthal, but i think would be very interesting too know numbers for CT-Gov race without Rell

Armchair Editorialist said...

Why are people voting for Massachusetts? The governor's race could maybe heat up, and the senate race is a done deal. Florida, on the other hand, has competitive races for both the governor's seat and senate, with high-profile candidates like Crist and an interesting primary.

Anonymous said...

I think we may be in for a surprise in MA-Sen.

Christian Liberty said...

why do people pretend that the MA race is settled? MA has a history of electing republicans statewide, especially in special elections. Republicans outperform Dems in low-turnout elections, anyway. With strong opposition to Obamacare, conservatives will be amply motivated to elect Brown, while rank-and-file Dems show little interest in electing Coakley.

Anonymous said...

The Massachusetts race is not a done deal. Go read the Real Clear Politics article on this race.

It reports based on the Virginia and New Jersey governor races last fall that Coakley leads 51% to Brown's 49%. Now obvously we don't have any hard data, but I assure you that is race is far from done.

Brown has a real good shot to win this race and anyone who doesn't believe that is not informed...

Anonymous said...

Armchair... the reason is because in MA Obama's Agenda screeches to a halt if Scott is elected. Reid cannot get his 60th vote.

It is clearly the most 'urgent' race.

Anonymous said...

Why vote for Alabama? Snoozefest

Brandon K said...

The votes for Alabama look like the anti-Massachusetts vote. It also looks like someone is VERY interested in making sure there is no public poll of the MA senate race. Sorry, but I doubt that many people actually want to see a poll of Alabama. Hopefully, you will still poll the MA race regardless.

Anonymous said...

I agree, even if the Massachusetts senate race is ultimately uncompetitive, recent polls have shown the gubernatorial race to be competitive. There is only a little over two weeks left to poll the Massachusetts race, while there is 10 months to poll the Alabama race. If they poll Alabama, I hope they poll the democratic primary.

Mark said...

Note: The people voting for Connecticut are looking for a SENATE poll to see how Peter Schiff matches up to McMahon and Simmons

Anonymous said...

Something is awfully suspicious about the voting this week. First Massachusetts has a clear lead than Alabama spikes up and then
Connecticutt spikes up more than 300 votes in like 3 hours, something is strange here and I think that this poll has been hacked.

Chris said...

Connecticut. While Blumenthal's numbers would be interesting, the real story in the state is the Republican challenge to US Senator Chris Dodd. There are 3 big-name candidates that are vying for the Republican nomination this year:

Rob Simmons - Former US Congressman with the most party insider support
Linda McMahon - WWE Wrestling CEO pleding to spend up to $50 million of her own money in the campaign
Peter Schiff - Economist and CEO of the brokerage Euro Pacific Capital who predicted the financial crisis and the government's response as early as 2005.

Dodd's Senate seat is extremely important for Democrats to hold onto, as he has held the position for over 30 years and chairs the powerful Senate Banking Committee. However, he is seen as very vulnerable due to mortgage scandals, blocking caps on Wall Street bonuses in TARP legislation, and stating that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were not in financial trouble before and even during the initial phase of the credit crunch. Although passing Health Care reform will likely improve his polling numbers, Dodd's low approval rate has brought out an unusually qualified mix of challengers against such a powerful incumbent.

Other good CT stories would be the home-state's view of "Independent" Joe Lieberman in light of his recent political maneuvers over Health Care Reform, and of course the CT Gubernatorial race which has put considerable pressure on Gov. Rell and Republicans wishing to keep their grip on the executive that they have held in Hartford since 1991.

Anonymous said...

People don't want to see a poll of Alabama? Convince Sparks he should move over to AL-05 instead of stay in the governor's race? See if Davis is winning?

Of course Coakley is going to win. And why waste time polling a race in Massachusetts recently polled with Patrick leading by a moderate margin?

And that was certainly interesting in CT...looks like someone voted 300 times to bring it out of last place and into first place

Andrew said...

If CT wins the poll, please examine the Senate race between Peter Schiff, Linda McMahon, and Rob Simmons.

Hmz said...

Please cover the Senate race in CT. There are three Republican candidates polling higher than Dodd.

Darren said...

MA-Sen will not be close. Coakley will win with at least 55% of the vote. A republican has not won since 2002, and that was when he (Mitt Romney) ran as a pro-choice moderate and squeaked out a plurality win. The state is too overwhelmingly democratic for a republican to have a chance. If you don't believe me, just look at the turnout in the primary; over 4 times as many democrats voted as republicans. While if this were any other state, you would have a point, MA at least at the moment isn't the highest priority.

Anonymous said...

What is going on? Connecticut comes from last place to take both Alabama and Mass.?

In a poll from right winging Rasmussen and Suffolk in the last two months, Paterson has had leads of 12%, 12%, 11%, and 11%.

Anonymous said...

This poll is for the Governor's race, so all the Peter "4%" Schiff spammers who took Connecticut from fourth to first in hours have massively wasted their time.

raquel said...

this is the next big race why would you poll races that aren't going to happen for months....

RightKlik said...

The Massachusetts Senate race is the most important. Health care reform (Ted's big cause) and Obama's whole agenda hinge on that race. We can assume it won't be close a election, but we really don't know.

If the poll results show that the race is shaping up to be closer than expected, it will be huge news.

Anonymous said...

I agree. It kinda soes look like something is wrong with the vote numbers. But I want to comment on why MA should be chosen. I will be very brief - Republicans will be more energized to come out.

-Pat

Anonymous said...

Can't you all see that the Massachusetts race is in 16 days? (Jan 19th) Elections for CT, AL, and all the rest, are held much later in the year. The MA election COULD have a direct impact on the health care bill, as Scott Brown could be the 41st vote to kill it! Wake up, people!

Marston said...

There is only one race of any importance right now. That is the Massachusetts Special Election on 1/19.

Anonymous said...

The most recent massachusetts gubernatorial race shows Patrick with only a 5 point lead and showed the potential for Cahill to win.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/massachusetts/election_2010_massachusetts_governor

Also we need at least one poll before the special election, why not just poll it and either confirm what we already know or possibly surprise us.

Anonymous said...

Wouldn't it be best to wait a few weeks to poll Alabama after the health care vote? How Davis votes will impact his poll numbers in both the primary and general election, so you should wait until after the vote.

R. George Dunn said...

Go Peter Schiff!

The MA Senate race is in January, Illinois Primary is in Fedruary and Texas right behind them.

Anonymous said...

Do you still plan to do a Kissell poll?

Marston said...

Right now it is all about Massachusetts. It is Jan 19. Please all you Ron Paul bots change your vote to MA from CT and actually do something good for the country?

Mr. P said...

hey, please poll peter schiff in CT for United States Senate. He raised over 1.3 million in the 3rd and 4th quarters and has a serious campaign. schiffforsenate.com
please poll him!

Anonymous said...

Massachusetts is the most important race at present.

Anonymous said...

naassachusettes

Zechariah said...

I'd say poll Connecticut or Alabama.
Thank you

Anonymous said...

Massachusetts, please.

As a stereotypical progressive liberal bottomfeeder who would make Ded Ted proud, Ms. Coakley distinguishes herself by having the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) use state computers and state e-mail addresses to direct state employees to volunteer for her campaign. She also found her way around the state’s campaign finance laws to get a head start on padding her coffers, as well as made a point to hand out community grants to the tune of some $1.5 million at the end of December.

Senator Scott Brown is a fiscal conservative with many years of service in the Massachusetts National Guard, and he was awarded the Army Commendation Medal for meritorious service in homeland security following 9/11. Unlike Coakley, Brown feels that:

Government is too big and that the federal stimulus bill made government bigger instead of creating jobs

Taxes are too high and are going higher if Congress continues with its out-of-control spending

The historic amount of debt we are passing on to our children and grandchildren is immoral

Power concentrated in the hands of one political party, as it is here in Massachusetts, leads to bad government and poor decisions

A strong military and vigorous homeland defense will protect our interests and security around the world and at home

All Americans deserve health care, but we shouldn’t have to create a new government insurance program to provide it

It would be interesting to see if the good people of Taxachusetts might finally be outgrowing Barney.

Jean said...

Mass. is the most critical race.. this race can be the "power of 1" to stop our government takeover..

Anonymous said...

Massachusetts is the most important race at this point by far.

Anonymous said...

We need Mass. out of the handes of the Democrats and Brown sounds like the MAN. VOTE FOR BROWN

 
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