Monday, October 4, 2010

Blumenthal up 12

The race may be closer than it was six months ago but the truth remains: Richard Blumenthal is one of the strongest Democratic Senate candidates in the country, Linda McMahon is one of the weakest Republican ones, and Blumenthal holds a double digit lead. It's 53-41 in PPP's newest look at the race.

Blumenthal's favorability rating is 53/39, making him the second most popular Democratic Senate candidate in a competitive race behind only Joe Manchin in West Virginia. That would make him a tough opponent in a blue state even for a strong Republican opponent but that McMahon is not.

Her numbers are the exact inverse of Blumenthal's with only 39% of voters seeing her positively and 53% having an unfavorable opinion. The only Republican Senate candidates that our most recent polls found with worse favorability numbers than McMahon were Joe Miller, Sharron Angle, and Christine O'Donnell.

Fewer than half of voters in the state- 47%- think McMahon is fit to hold public office. McMahon would have to make serious in roads with Democrats to have any chance at winning the race but only 13% of them have a favorable view of her.

Blumenthal is confounding the main trends giving Democratic candidates across the country trouble this year. Independents are generally leaning strongly toward the GOP but Blumenthal ties McMahon with them at 45%. For the most part Republican voters this year are much more unified than Democrats but Blumenthal is getting more cross over support than McMahon, taking 15% of Republicans while losing only 11% of Democrats.

Certainly Blumenthal's lead is not as lofty as it once was. But he still looks to be in a pretty solid position going into the last four weeks of the campaign.

Full results here

27 comments:

Mark said...

This is good news. McMahon is loathsome.

Will the numbers on Malloy vs. Foley be out later today? I'm anxious to know the state of that race.

Anonymous said...

This is an outlier. Blumenthal has been fading for weeks, and nothing new can explain why he now supposedly has a 12 point lead.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Will the numbers on Malloy vs. Foley be out later today?"

No, probably Wednesday.

Captain Obvious said...

This is good news that the gap is still shrinking. It was always an uphill battle in a D stronghold, but Mr. "Lied a dozen times about serving in vietnam" Blumenthal is "loathsome."

We'll see what happens now that advertising kicks into high gear for the final stretch

Anonymous said...

It just goes to show that people in the northeast (here Conn.) could care less if they have a lying politician or not. This country is truly doomed. Why don't the people in the northeast just save time and money and just permit one-party elections.

Stephen said...

Blumenthal - another loathsome Democrat that would be a rubber stamp to the Obama marxist confiscate then spread the wealth agenda.

Chuck T said...

Bottom line is that despite everything Blumenthal has also led every poll and been at 50% or more in everyone of them--even the ones showing him leading by just a few points. I've never really seen this state as going red in the senate. Now the one which worries me is still West Virginia. I think that is the one-time "sure thing" dem seat which may not be on November 2.

Anonymous said...

So is it NY-Sen (B) or CO-Sen that's in single digits?

I'm starting to think that we're going back to a 2004-like map, only with a few more Democratic Senators. Blue state stay blue, red states stay red, and the purple states are trending GOP this year.

Mark said...

Wednesday it is, then. Any teasers?

wt said...

I would have predicted a Blumenthal lead between 5 and 10, but this sounds reasonable. Especially since McMahon is taking a hit on minimum wage stuff right now.

I was hoping for a Simmons miracle in the primary, but he probably wouldn't have enough cash to compete anyway.

So the Senate-majority firewall is basically complete, other than Washington, at this point.

Chuck T said...

Anonymous said...
So is it NY-Sen (B) or CO-Sen that's in single digits?

My guess is that it's CO-Senate that is single digits. I think that Sen. Gillibrand is in reasonably good shape.

NRH said...

McMahon has, similar to Whitman in California, saturated the media to the point that people are actively irritated by her ads. She can't shake her shady business practices, including firing 10% of her workforce and a number of dead wrestlers.

Anonymous said...

the new ad running this afternoon and the debate tonight will make these numbers moot. by friday, it will be 48/44 blumey. and the under-represented REP wave will cover the diff. final:
M - 50.8
B - 48.8
just a guess. feel free to call me an idiot.

Anonymous said...

Yeah,the apathy of ignorance has always run deep here in CT. Too bad the nanny staters drag the rest of us down into their marxist sewer fantasy.

Anonymous said...

This poll is obviously wrong.

The DSCC would not be dumping scarce resources into this race if Blumenthal was up 12.

Timothy said...

Momentum with McMahon...she has a shot, and she did a big ad buy.

Anonymous said...

No I think Blumenthal is up by 152%, does that make you libs feel better? Get the crying towels out, no you better make that a boat cause its 29 days until the tsunami comes.

Anonymous said...

A litle thing Linda said about Min. Wage could be the result of this poll actually

Anonymous said...

Mc Moron makes my skin crawl with her utter creepiness and her voice grates on my nerves like chalk on a blackboard! Clearly, her coming out in favor of lowering the minimum wage only goes to show how totally out of touch with reality she is.

DBL said...

If the breakdown is 41%D/28%R McMahon is doomed. In 2008 it was 43%D/27%R. So this is similar. Even if the turn-out is more favorable to the Republicans, McMahon has to win independents convincingly. PPP's polls have skewed Dem, but they've had Fiorina up by 12, Burr by 25, Kirk by 14, and Raese up 26. In this environment if she's just breaking even on indies, she's a really bad candidate.

Alice said...

Since the candidates for office are Warren Mosler, John Mertens, Linda McMahon, and Richard Blumenthal, the first question is wrong and the poll in inaccurate.

Daniel said...

Thank God!
Linda McMahon is nuts.
How can with wacko think she can buy this election!
Go Dick Blumenthal. Dick has worked hard for the State of Ct. many years and is and was always on top of everything!

Anonymous said...

Not, this is not an outlier. This poll has the same result than the Greenberg poll ten days ago.

They are results for statewide offices in Connecticut. Would be interesting know about the races for Attorney General, Secretary of State and State Comptroller.

Al Pippin said...

Tom,
I'm not questioning the fact that Richard Blumenthal is leading Linda McMahon in the race for the Senate seat in Connecticut. But I am a bit perplexed by the numbers that you/PPP are providing - that seem so out of sync with others that I've seen. While you/PPP have Blumenthal leading McMahon by 12, Rasmussen has him at +5 (with McMahon closing), Quinnipiac at +3 and the New York Times is calling it a tossup. You also have McMahon's approvals at 39/53 (-14), while Rasmussen has it at 56/43 (+13), for a 27% difference. Did I miss something - or what?

Anonymous said...

Richard Blumenthal is one of the finest candidates our State of Connecticut has ever seen. Mrs. McMahon on the other hand should stay out of politics and start up another business -- ideally something involving less sex, drugs, and violence. She and Lowell the "Gov who gave us the income tax" P. Weicker, Jr. (who just happens to be on the WWE board of directors) should put their heads and fat wallets together and create more jobs in the private sector. (If that is truly what she is good at as she claims).

Dustin Ingalls said...

"This is an outlier. Blumenthal has been fading for weeks, and nothing new can explain why he now supposedly has a 12 point lead."

We haven't polled the race in nine months, so there is no trendline for PPP polls. Other pollsters have shown it closer, but our numbers disagree, and we'll stack our track record up against anyone else who has polled this race.

"the new ad running this afternoon and the debate tonight will make these numbers moot. by friday, it will be 48/44 blumey. and the under-represented REP wave will cover the diff."

Republicans can't get any more enthusiastic than they already are. There's nowhere to go but down. If anything, the enthusiasm gap will likely close a bit in some states as Democrats finally realize the importance of voting. A lot of the undecideds in key races are traditional Democratic voting blocs that, if they choose not to stay home, will tip some close races. Also, PPP has a history of OVERrepresenting the GOP vote slightly, not undercounting it.

Anonymous said...

The DSCC is pouring ANOTHER $1.2 million into this race, bringing their total spending to about $2 million.

Seems like they have a serious concern that McMahon has "any chance at winning the race".

Maybe they have unlimited resources and no other competitive races to worry about. Or maybe they disagree that Blumenthal is up by 12.

 
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