Monday, October 25, 2010

Hickenlooper lead down to 3

Tom Tancredo continues to surge as Dan Maes' support completely collapses in the Colorado Governor's race and John Hickenlooper now leads the race by only a 47-44 margin with Maes getting 5%.

Hickenlooper's been unable to rise above the 47-48% mark in PPP's polls over the last three months. When Tancredo and Maes were splitting the vote relatively evenly it looked like that would be enough to win but now Hickenlooper really appears to be at risk of losing. Given the trajectory of the race it is not inconceivable that Tancredo could pick up a good chunk of even the small amount of support Maes has remaining and 38% of the undecideds are Republicans to only 23% who are Democrats. Those two data points suggest that Tancredo still has more room to grow.

Hickenlooper remains by far and away the most popular candidate in the race with 51% of voters holding a positive opinion of him to 41% with a negative one. He hasn't been able to translate that majority favorability to a majority of the vote because many of the Republicans who like him on a personal level are not willing to actually vote for him. Tancredo meanwhile has seen voters really warm up to him over the course of the campaign. In early August 50% of voters expressed unfavorable feelings toward him while only 27% rated him positively. Now he's on slightly positive ground with 45% saying they have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one.

Maes is in a class of his own as the most unpopular candidate running for office anywhere in the country this year. A remarkable 75% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 8% who see him in a positive light. He's pretty universally reviled by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.

Hickenlooper's getting 87% of Democrats to 10% for Tancredo and none for Maes. Tancredo has the 73-14 advantage with Republicans with 9% still going to Maes. His path to victory is dependent on that 9% continuing to decline. Tancredo also now has a 46-44 advantage with independents.

Hickenlooper remains the slight favorite but this race looks more and more like it could produce one of the most shocking outcomes in the country on election night.

Full results here

13 comments:

AG said...

Between TABORism and Tancredo, the State of Colorado is on the verge of both economic and cultural collapse. Not since David Duke has there ever been a moment like this.

Zornorph said...

I wouldn't have predicted this two months ago. I'll bet Hickenlooper is now regretting his decision not to run negative adds.

Anonymous said...

Huh. It's kind of hard for me to believe that Hickenlooper is drawing a larger percent of the *Republican* vote than Maes. But if his support is collapsing so much, I guess that could happen.

DBL said...

In four of the five polls taken in the last week Hickenlooper has gotten 44-47% of the vote. He's been consistent. Tancredo's spread has been 35-44. It seems pretty clear that Hickenlooper is going to have a difficult time getting to 50%. If he wins, it'll likely be by 6 points or less. It's just a question of whether Tancredo can pick up the Maes voters and the few undecideds left.

Anonymous said...

I will laff and laff and laff if (when) Tancredo wins.

wt said...

Tancredo can't take a lead though, or people will recoil from the possibility that he actually might win.

He needs to peak at exactly the right time to win.

Still curious if Maes will drop out, and whether he'd endorse Tancredo after such a hard fought campaign.

Marvin said...

It's hard to believe that so many people would vote for a guy as awful as Tom Tancredo.

Of course the hilarious thing here is that the GOP will officially be a minor party through 2014 if Maes can't get 10% (which looks like he almost definitely won't now.)

If the GOP can manage to get Maes under 10% and have Tancredo still lose the Gov. race that would be truly great.

Who knows, maybe the GOP being a minor party on the ballot in 2012 is the difference between President Obama having a 2nd term or not. It is conceivable as Colorado is a definite swing state.

Chuck T said...

I would still say that Hickenlooper is ahead because most polls show him ahead and also Survey USA, which has been tough on dems give Hickenlooper a 10-point lead and there poll came out yesterday. However, it's sure not as comfortable as it once seemed. If the GOP nominee gets less than 10% won't the GOP ballot position in CO change?

pay said...

Go Tancredo! We're pulling out all the stops for you. We don't agree about everything, but we certainly agree that the state needs not to be run by Hickenlooper, the ChickenPooper. What an empty suit! At least we actually know something about Tanc - he's not exactly a retiring wallflower! Go Tom!

ARealSenator said...

It's amazing that Colorado may elect a governor who thinks that every Muslim wants to blow up America whenever they can. I wonder how many Muslims he knows...

Anonymous said...

I don't "get" democrats and I never will get them. I heard a well-known liberal babbling about how Boulder Colorado used to be a counter culture town, beautiful, uncrowed, etc. Yet these same liberals will vote for the Hickenloopers of Colorado, who don't care about massive immigration whether it's legal or illegal. These leftists are bizarre confused people.

US Constitution States Rights said...

Vote for Tom Tancredo for Colorado Governor !!!

Because:

Hickenlooper would be a leftist-liberal-Democrat, Clintonista-Obamanation-serving-supporting-ally, pro-illegal-alien-amnesty-sanctuary-city-disaster-type-Governor.

Maes poll #'s are low and dropping, Tancredo can win against Hickenlooper if most-all Conservatives decide to back him now-Tuesday.

Lets all do what we can to join with and support Arizona. Tom Tancredo supports Arizona and the SB-1070 law.

Tancredo on Immigration

Tom Tancredo is best known for his opposition to illegal immigration. Tancredo founded the Congressional Immigration Reform Caucus in May 1999. He served as its Chairman until January 2007, when he turned the chairmanship over to Brian Bilbray.

Tancredo has called for halting illegal immigration, and a three-year moratorium on all legal immigration to allow those immigrants already in the country to be assimilated.

Tancredo criticized the Denver Public Library system for purchasing reading materials written in Spanish and for offering space for classes to be held for these library users, on the grounds that putting Spanish-speakers in a 'linguistic ghetto' would delay their integration into American society.

Tancredo sponsored legislation to eliminate H-1B visas for temporary workers in 2005 because the vast majority overstay their Visas

On July 30, 2007, Tancredo "criticized Congressional Democrats for eliminating a requirement that anyone applying for Medicaid and State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) services provide proof of U.S. citizenship". According to Tancredo, "the new Democrat plan would raise taxes and make it easier for illegal aliens to obtain taxpayer-funded medical benefits"

Tancredo was the sponsor of a successful, bi-partisan amendment to a Department of Homeland Security appropriations bill that would withhold federal emergency services funds from 'sanctuary cities'.

Tancredo supports Federal action in what he considers its proper sphere. He has suggested state legislators and 'sanctuary city' mayors should be imprisoned for passing laws contrary to federal immigration law.

Tancredo has made it a point in all of his public speeches to differentiate between those who enter the United States legally and those who come illegally. He frequently attends naturalization ceremonies to support new citizens for "doing it the right way".

US Constitution States Rights said...

In 2006, Tancredo published In Mortal Danger: The Battle for America's Border and Security through Joseph Farah's WND Books in Nashville, Tennessee. The volume focuses on American cultural identity and his proposals to remedy what he conteds to be major flaws in the immigration system.

Tancredo's has staunchly supported tightening immigration requirements from Islamic countries. On September 18, 2008, Tancredo introduced H. R. 6975, the Jihad Prevention Act, which would require aliens to attest that they will not advocate installing a Sharia law system in the United States as a condition for admission, and for other purposes. Aliens failing to make such an attestation would be ineligible for admission. Further, the visa of any alien advocating the installation of a Sharia law system in the United States would be subject to revocation.

The National Taxpayers Union awarded Tancredo a grade of A for each year he has served in Congress. Tancredo was awarded a grade of A for votes he cast in 1999 to 2006 inclusively. Additionally, Tancredo received the National Taxpayers Union's "Taxpayers' Friend Award" in 1999 to 2006 inclusively as well. The award is given by the NTU to those members of Congress that are among "the strongest supporters of responsible tax and spending policies". He is also a strong supporter of the FairTax.

Tancredo on Obama

In a speech given at a campaign event for Colorado Senate candidate Ken Buck on July 8, 2010, Tancredo said of President Barack Obama, "...the greatest threat to the United States today, the greatest threat to our liberty, the greatest threat to the Constitution of the United States, the greatest threat to our way of life; everything we believe in. The greatest threat to the country that our founding fathers put together is the man that's sitting in the White House today."

On July 22, 2010, in an editorial in the Washington Times, Tancredo said that Congress should bring impeachment charges against President Obama.

Lets all do what we can to join with and support Arizona. Tom Tancredo supports Arizona and the SB-1070 law.

Vote against-defeat the; leftist-liberal, Clintonista-Obamanation-serving-supporting-ally, illegal-alien-sanctuary-city-supporting-enabling, Hickenlooper.

Vote for Tom Tancredo for Colorado Governor !!!

 
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