Sunday, October 31, 2010

Paul headed for easy victory

Rand Paul has expanded his lead in the Kentucky Senate race even further over the last week and is headed for a blowout win. His margin over Jack Conway is 55-40.

Kentucky is obviously a conservative state. Conway's ability to win was always going to depend on getting a lot of folks who supported John McCain in 2008 to vote Democratic for the Senate this time around. The most amazing finding on this final poll is that Rand Paul is actually picking up more Obama voters (15%) than Conway is McCain voters (9%). That's the formula for a landslide.

Over the last month of the campaign this went from being a relatively competitive race to a not so competitive one. That didn't have a ton to do with Rand Paul- his favorability in early September was 45/40 and now it's 48/43, basically unchanged. The shift is more a reflection of Jack Conway's image with Kentucky voters being shattered in the closing days. Seven weeks ago his favorability split evenly with 36% of voters rating him positively and negatively alike. Now he's very unpopular with only 34% of voters saying they like him and 52% expressing unfavorable opinions toward him.

In the end Rand Paul did not have any trouble reunifying his party after the Republican primary- GOP voters are going for him by an 88-8 margin. Conway meanwhile is bleeding Democratic support. He's getting only 61% of the vote from his own party while a full 34% say they plan to vote for Paul. Paul also has a 48-40 advantage with independents.

Barack Obama's approval rating in Kentucky is 31% with 62% of voters disapproving of him. This race may have been a stretch for Dems even with a perfect campaign and candidate. And in the end they had neither.

Full results here

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

What is the point polling races that have been written off months ago. How about polling Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Washington and Illinois? Those are the races everyone is interested in.

Anonymous said...

On Tuesday in Kentucky there will be a Randslide !

Anonymous said...

That Rand Paul could INCREASE his support after his thugs stomped on a woman's head is positively mind-boggling. And that they'd support a man who would repeal the Civil Rights Act. Shows what a bunch of backwoods rednecks the people of Kentucky must be.

Dustin Ingalls said...

Kentucky was voted on by our blog readers. We are polling all those other states.

Anonymous said...

"A man in Kentucky sure is lucky to live down in Bowling Green."

-The Everyly Brothers

Curtis Morrison said...

Well that's just depressing.

Doug said...

"Shows what a bunch of backwoods rednecks the people of Kentucky must be."

I've been considering leaving California — "fruit and nut land." Fer God's sake, these stupid voters are going to put Jerry Brown back at the helm! 10.3% tax rate isn't high enough for these morons? That's it. I'm outta here!

Kentucky sounds like the place for me. Finally! A place with a ton of common sense!

Angela said...

Hope For America!

Capitalist Infidel said...

If that woman had not assaulted Paul twice maybe he wouldn't be getting the sympathy vote

Anonymous said...

Why waste time polling. Here it is:
off the "close" senate races...

DE: ODonnell loses by razor thin margin, recount kinda margin.

CA: Fiorina
IL: Kirk
WI: Johnson
CT: McMahon (razor thin)
Alaska: Miller by thin margin

House: net R gain of 75 to 80.

Can we go home now?

Anonymous said...

Oh, and Toomey wins by 2-3 pts.

KineticReaction said...

---That Rand Paul could INCREASE his support after his thugs stomped on a woman's head is positively mind-boggling.---

One man, who was later charged, pushed a woman's head down with his foot. The Paul campaigned has completely disassociated itself with him.

On the same night, another man, a Jack supporter, stepped on the foot of a woman supporting Rand Paul who was wearing a surgical boot, causing her stitches to come open. He was also arrested.

Your ridiculous smears against Rand Paul's supporters based on the actions of ONE individual is all too common among die-hard welfarists/Democrats on the internet.

--- And that they'd support a man who would repeal the Civil Rights Act. Shows what a bunch of backwoods rednecks the people of Kentucky must be.---

He never said he would repeal the Civil Rights Act. That is a blatant lie.

It just shows how little reality your political stances are based on.

wt said...

The interview between Chris Matthews, of all people, and Jack Conway, was painful. Sure, Conway needed to shake up the race, but questioning Paul's faith and commitment to faith-based initiatives was a really bad idea.

Hopefully it tars him in voters' minds for the forseeable future.

Anonymous said...

"Shows what a bunch of backwoods rednecks the people of Kentucky must be."

Bigotry is alive and well despite the Civil Rights Act.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

"Shows what a bunch of backwoods rednecks the people of Kentucky must be."

Wow, nice generalization. I can see you really take the time to consider what you write.

In KY, voting for Conway tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Us backwoods, redneck, Kentuckians just act that way for the outside world to see, so that we can keep as many of the left wing nut jobs from wanting to move here as possible.

We never want to be mistaken for Calif. or a "People's Republic" of New England State. We have way too much pride for that to happen.

Just remember: our bluegrass really isn't all that blue; our horses really aren't all that fast;our whiskey really isn't all that good; and our beautiful women really aren't all that beautiful. So please, all you liberal, you really wouldn't like it here.

Anonymous said...

SAW the video of the Profitt guy holding the woman down with his foot. Man trying to control the woman could not do it alone. Profitt has bad back and is unable to bend to that degree. HE DID NOT STOMP the woman's head, and anyone who says she had damages is lying. And don't argue with me...go watch the video. It's just a Dimwit/Libtard smear, as usual...'cept they are not smart enough to realize that their mess doesn't work when there is film or audio. Deeper and deeper, back into their hole they go! And Thank God!

 
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