Monday, October 11, 2010

Previewing Florida Senate

Tomorrow we'll have out Florida Senate numbers looking both at the three way race and head to head contests between Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist and Rubio and Kendrick Meek.

Right now pollster.com has Meek and Crist combining for 50% with Rubio at 44%. A lot of folks have looked at those numbers in the last few weeks and concluded that if one out of Meek and Crist would just drop out their combined support would be enough to defeat Rubio.

One number in the results we'll release tomorrow points to a big problem with that theory: 48% of Floridians want Republicans in charge of the next Senate while only 43% want Democrats in charge.

So let's say Meek did drop out and Crist became the de facto Democratic candidate. Right now Crist is winning 14% of the Republican vote and is getting 23% of the vote from independents who want Republicans to control the Senate. Would he be able to hold onto those GOP leaning voters if he was more or less the Democratic nominee? No way to know for sure but I'm skeptical.

And if by some chance Crist got out, there's no doubt Meek would have trouble winning over his Republican supporters. Only 35% of the GOPers sticking with Crist say they'd choose Meek over Rubio.

Would the odds of someone other than Rubio winning this seat improve dramatically if Crist or Meek was to drop out? Absolutely- but it would not be a slam dunk by any means.

5 comments:

Chuck T said...

FL Senate is going to be retained by the GOP. Crist nor Meek are bowing out. The big question is the Governor's race--when will those numbers be out?

MilesC56 said...

GO CHARLIE!!

Zornorph said...

People have been entertaining this fantasy about Meek dropping out since even before Crist went Indy - it's not going to happen and never was. Crist's path to victory closed when Greene lost in the primary. And the Dem party of FL wants Meek in to drive turnout for the Gov race and the house. Marco Rubio will be the next senator from Florida and anyone who says different is just being silly.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"The big question is the Governor's race--when will those numbers be out?"

Wednesday.

Sarah Rumpf said...

http://www.sunshinestatesarah.com/2010/10/why-kendrick-meek-wont-drop-out-and-why.html

Meek's not dropping out, but even if he did, it won't help Charlie enough to beat Marco.

It's just too darn late. Ballots are already printed, absentee ballots are already getting returned, early voting starts next week. Meek dropping out and endorsing Crist would make it on the news for 48 hours tops. Even with Charlie's pile of cash, he would not be able to reach all the voters and let them know Meek was no longer running.

 
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