Thursday, October 14, 2010

Sandoval up 9

There's good news and bad news for Rory Reid in the Nevada Gubernatorial race. The good news is that he's gaining, up to 43% after being at 38% in our July poll of the state. The bad news is that Brian Sandoval is standing solid at the same 52% he had in our July poll. So although it is now a single digit race that's just a reflection of Reid picking up undecideds rather than winning over Sandoval supporters, and with Sandoval polling consistently over 50% the path to victory for Reid continues to look exceedingly difficult.

This race ultimately comes down to the independents. Both candidates have their party bases pretty well locked up with Sandoval taking 88% of Republicans and Reid 82% of Democrats. But Sandoval's winning independents by a 62-33 margin and that's what's fueling his overall lead. To put his 29 point advantage with them in perspective, Sharron Angle's lead with them in the Senate race is only 8 points.

Sandoval is proving to be one of the most attractive Republican Gubernatorial candidates in the country. 52% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to only 32% who see him negatively. Even moderates see him positively by a 46/38 spread and that's exceedingly rare for Republicans this year- the only other GOP candidates we've seen on positive ground with moderates are Scott Brown on the Senate side and Michigan's Rick Snyder, Hawaii's Duke Aiona, and Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett on the Gubernatorial side. Much of Rory Reid's trouble has been blamed on the family brand but that sells Sandoval short- he's one of the better candidates the GOP has anywhere this year.

It's overwhelmingly the case across the country this year that in states with an unpopular outgoing Governor the office is going to change parties but Nevada is bucking that trend. Republican Jim Gibbons is one of the least popular folks holding his position in the whole country with a 25% approval rating and 61% of voters disapproving of him but it doesn't seem to be rubbing off on Sandoval.

Perhaps in a different political climate or against a weaker opponent (like his dad's) Rory Reid could have been elected Governor of Nevada but there's going to have to be a big game changer in the final three weeks for Sandoval not win this one.

Full results here

6 comments:

NRH said...

Basically, Sandoval managed to not be the newsmaker this cycle. With Sue Lowden and then Sharron Angle sharing the crazy on a constant basis, there just hasn't been any media attention for Sandoval. He gets to be 'Generic Republican' and use Angle as a foil; as long as he doesn't go into the same realms of crazy as her, he can present himself as moderate and not turn off the electorate. He also hasn't made any major gaffes and has campaigned well from a technical perspective. In a year with an awful lot of terrible Republican candidates, Sandoval shines for being 'normal.'

Anonymous said...

PPP now has one of two polls all year that show Sandoval leading by only single digits. 538 projects a result of 57-41 for this race while Pollster.com has 54.0 - 39.5.

More evidence that your Nevada sample (also showing Reid leading) is too liberal/Democrat.

broc said...

Can you guys poll Georgia? Roy Barnes was up/down in 1998 poll, and won. Roy was up in 2002 by a good margin, lost by a good margin.

I think recent polls here are underestimating his support.

Jay said...

I just received a phone call (poll) and advised that I will vote Republican in this election.

Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Biden, Boxer, Kerry and the rest of the liberals based the entire 2008 campaign on lies.

We need to replace the lying liberals and take our country back.

Anonymous said...

Jay said...
I just received a phone call (poll) and advised that I will vote Republican in this election.

Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Biden, Boxer, Kerry and the rest of the liberals based the entire 2008 campaign on lies.

We need to replace the lying liberals and take our country back...

Yep, lets go back to the good old days of the Bush/Cheney years! The republicans talk about the Dems as spenders! Bush inherited a huge surplus and look what they did with it. When Obama took over the country was on its way into a depression and it's now been stabilized. It's going to take more than a year and 9 months to dig the country out of the mess that the Republicans left it in.

Anonymous said...

mm I was waiting results about Ensign

 
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