Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Perry doing better with Texas Republicans

Although Rick Perry's general election poll standing in Texas is less than impressive Republican primary voters in the state have warmed up to him over the first six months of the year and he's now the clear favorite in the state.

31% of Republicans say Perry would be their first choice as nominee next year compared to 15% for Mitt Romney, 11% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Ron Paul and Sarah Palin, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 6% for Herman Cain, and 2% for Tim Pawlenty.

Perry's strength with GOP voters in his home state is a new development. When PPP looked at Texas in January only 9% of Republicans said Perry was their top choice, putting him in 6th place overall and well behind Mike Huckabee's 24%. But Perry's shown a lot more interest in a bid since then, Huckabee's out of the picture, and Gingrich who was in second place at 17% in January has tanked. Perry has likely picked up a lot of the lost support of his fellow southern candidates in the race.

If Perry ends up not running there's basically a three way tie at the top in the state with Romney getting 17% to 16% for Bachmann, 14% for Palin, 11% for Gingrich, 10% for Paul, 8% for Cain, and 5% for Jon Huntsman. Those numbers show what's becoming a pretty common pattern- Bachmann leads Romney 22-15 with the 'very conservative' voters who constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate. But Romney's strength in the middle- leading Bachmann 19-9 with moderates and 21-13 with 'somewhat conservative' voters gives him the overall advantage.

One thing very clear in the Texas numbers- Republicans there don't care for Ron Paul. Just 37% hold a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. It's pretty much a given that Paul's chances at the nomination are close to zero but the fact that his fellow GOP voters don't even like him takes Paul's troubles to a different level.

If David Dewhurst enters the Republican Senate field this month, as expected, he will start out as a pretty strong favorite. 40% of primary voters say he would be their top choice to 11% each for Ted Cruz and Dan Patrick, 5% for Tom Leppert, and 3% for Elizabeth Ames Jones. Although there's been a lot of speculation about Dewhurst perhaps becoming a Tea Party target he starts out very strong with the far right, getting 42% of the 'very conservative' vote. That's higher than his overall level of support. Maybe he'll have trouble with those voters down the road but it's not something that starts out as a problem for him.

If by some chance Dewhurst doesn't end up running the field is about as wide open as it could possibly be. Cruz would lead with 16% to 13% for Patrick, 12% for Leppert, and 11% for Jones.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Did you poll the new hampshire house races????

Texas Poll Junkie said...

This is stupid. And it's still stupid. Perry has not announced. Earlier in the year, he was pretty adamant that he wasn't running. He still has not announced. When he actually announces, get back to us with some of your famously flawed Texas data. You also say Democrats could win KBH's Senate seat in 2012 and that KBH was up by 25 on Perry in 2009, and that Bill White was tied with Rick Perry in the gubernatorial race, even though every other poll showed Perry up by 10 (he won by 12 or 13). Your polls are a joke in Texas.

Pauly said...

What are you talking about?!?
Ron Paul wins hands down according
to this poll:

Paul way ahead in Texas!

Pat H said...

I believe PPP. Ron Paul has zero chance of winning. He has a few nutty supporters. I am a Republican who would vote for Obama over Paul. He is nuts!

Now about the Senate race, who is Addison? 4% is high for someone who has just come out of no where. Am I wrong?

Kreationz said...

Being Johnson was our neighboring Governor for 8 years, why was he excluded this time?

Todd Dugdale said...

Not very good news for Paul. He has underwater approvals in his home State, and he comes up behind "Someone Else/Not Sure" when considering candidates that are actually running. This is a 43% "very conservative" sample, and Paul only rates 7% with those voters.

Texas secessionists seem to really love Palin (77%). Old people love her, and young people really don't like her much, at least as far as the TX primary electorate goes.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, Texas Republicans hate Ron Paul so much they've only elected him to Congress twelve times.

Anonymous said...


case closed

NRH said...

Republicans in Ron Paul's own district have elected him. Republicans in the rest of Texas have a far lower opinion of him. I bet that 3:50 AM anon kook loves him, though.

Anonymous said...

But Texas has open primaries, so why did you only poll GOP? That majorly impacts Ron Paul's numbers, since he dominates with independents.

The Interesting Times said...

Ron Paul's own district may not even reelect him in 2012--the Texas legislature's redistricting proposal gives him a much less Republican-leaning district this time.

Anonymous said...

awful article...Texas is more socially conservative than most states, which is why Ron Paul isnt uber popular there (among Republicans) I dont exactly understand why this damns him when he would fair much better in other, more liberal states...not to mention that you are NOT taking into account independents or democrats in your poll...just a bad evaluation of the numbers if you ask me

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