Thursday, July 5, 2007

Edwards slipping in home state?

Here are some selections from our analysis of the latest primary tracking poll. The bold parts sum up my thoughts on Edwards slipping into a tie with Clinton and Obama.
The Democratic Presidential race is tightening up, with this month’s poll showing a tie among the top three Democratic candidates. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both garner 27% support, while John Edwards has 26%. John Edwards’ support has continued to slide in North Carolina since a strong showing in April following the announcement of the recurrence of his wife’s cancer. The Edwards’ campaign has had a few media missteps in the last three months (his home, haircuts and hedge fund). Those problems coupled with Clinton and Obama winning the fundraising battle, could explain his drift and their growth in the poll.

Perhaps more importantly, Democratic Party demographics are against him. Women and African-Americans make up a significant majority of Democratic primary voters. Yet Edwards performs best among men and whites.

Not surprisingly Hillary Clinton leads among women and in the last month Obama has seen a surge in African American support. In July he received the support of 59% of blacks polled, fourteen percentage points higher than last month. Obama’s support from blacks has continued to rise over the seven months we have been tracking...

...It is important to note that Edwards performs much better in North Carolina than in national polls, where the latest poll averages have him in the low teens. His strength in North Carolina has waned mirroring national polling trends, fundraising, and punditry analysis. His success in North Carolina may depend upon his national success. If he remains a viable top-tier candidate, North Carolina will likely continue to support its native son. However, if his nomination becomes improbable his Tar Heel State supporters might drift to Clinton or Obama.


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