Today Civitas released numbers showing that Pat McCrory would beat Bev Perdue 46-32 in a possible rematch. That's really a no brainer given the Governor's approval ratings, but the bigger takeaway for me from the poll is that McCrory's numbers are pretty underwhelming.
McCrory got 47% of the vote last fall but despite Perdue's remarkable unpopularity he doesn't improve on that at all in this poll. McCrory got good reviews as a candidate last fall but perhaps his stronger than expected performance had more to do with the eventual winner's campaign being underwhelming than anything having to do with himself. I almost think McCrory's standing in this poll is similar to that of a generic Republican- would a Fred Smith, Phil Berger, or Sue Myrick necessarily have polled any worse? I think McCrory's Gubernatorial campaign was pretty overrated.
The overall situation surrounding Perdue reminds me a lot of the Washington Governor's race and Christine Gregoire four years ago. Gregoire just barely snuck into office after a much closer than expected challenge from Republican Dino Rossi. The early part of her term was rocky- in May 2005 her approval rating was just 34%, ranking her 47th out of 50 for popularity in SurveyUSA's tracking for that month.
After Rossi's tight defeat the party automatically went back to him for a second go around in 2008 and despite Gregoire's first year difficulties she dispatched him by a much more lopsided six point margin in the rematch.
I have no doubt Bev Perdue would lose if there was an election today. But there isn't, three and a half years is a lifetime in politics for things to shift back in her direction, and these numbers don't make McCrory look all that impressive either. Folks gleefully declaring Perdue a one term Governor based on her approval rating six months in might be right, but I still think there's a better than even chance they're wrong.
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6 comments:
One way to find out. Test them against Perdue.
An incumbent has NEVER lost a re-election campaign for governor in NC. In fact, none have really been close. Bev will be a tough out for the GOP in 2012, count on it.
No governor has ever had even a CLOSE re-election in NC. Bev will be a tough out for the GOP. Count on it.
Jensen is in the pocket if the Perdue Administration, as evidenced by him replacing Guillory, who is now a key Staffer in the Perdue Administration
46% may not be better than his result in November, but you fail to mention that there is not an "unsure" box to check when you go vote. Almost all of the 22% of people who are undecided in this poll would have to break Perdue's way in order for her to win on election day. McCrory would only have to get 5% at the most in order for him to win the election with 51% of the vote.
There is only one way to resolve this. Poll it.
An incumbent has never been at a 25% approval rating, either. McCrory would be our governor today had it not for the "Obama Effect". I can't envision any way for Perdue to redeem herself in 2012. Even a Katrina like disaster in our state couldn't turn her approval ratings around and as inept as she is to begin with, there is no gaurantee that she would properly handle a disaster of that magnitude. Out of 200 United States senators and governors, she ranks 199, just slightly above Roland Burris. No, sorry, she's toast in 2012.
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