A deeper analysis of where shifts in his approval are occurring finds that he's not having any trouble with his base. His numbers with conservative Democrats have actually slightly improved over the last two months to a 72% approval rating, an indication that while the health care battle may be making some Congressmen on the right side of his party uneasy it's not affecting Obama's popularity with that group of voters. He's a couple points up with liberal Democrats and three points down with moderates, trends that basically cancel each other out.
His main drop has been with his moderate Republican support. He was doing decently well with that group of voters earlier in his term, sporting a 38% approval rating. That's now been cut in half to 19%. He's also seen some decline with moderate independents. Although he is still at a solid 55%, that's down from 63% in May. Our polling finds that those voters' top concern is overwhelmingly the economy and they'll support whatever party they find making it better. His drop there may be a reflection of growing impatience that the stimulus has not had a more immediately visible impact.
Here's the full data on his shifts over the last two months:
| Group | Obama Approval in May | Obama Approval in July | Change |
| Moderate Republicans | 38 | 19 | -19 |
| Moderate Independents | 63 | 55 | -8 |
| Conservative Republicans | 12 | 6 | -6 |
| Moderate Democrats | 85 | 82 | -3 |
| Conservative Independents | 30 | 28 | -2 |
| Liberal Democrats | 89 | 91 | +2 |
| Conservative Democrats | 67 | 72 | +5 |
9 comments:
Tom,
ARG has Obama at 9/88 approval/disapproval among Republicans.
Rasmussen has Obama at 15% approval among Republicans.
You are getting some back-up on your numbers but the left still thinks you are a joke.
It'll take a drop in Gallup (down to 55/39 today) for them to see that Obama is falling apart.
Tom,
It doesn't matter what Obama's approval ratings are now. It only matters in 2012. Republicans are not going to vote for him anyway. Obama will be judged on jobs and the economy. People vote with their pocketbooks. He got elected because of that.
Doesn't matter what Obamas's ratings are because the republicans are far worse. I wonder why. Could it be that they are for the richest 1% of the nation?
interesting there are no liberal republicans?
Where are liberal Independents? Or heck even liberal Republicans?
Liberal independents and Republicans are both less than 2% of the population, which makes the numbers for those subgroups too small to talk about reliably.
It's interesting that the sharpest declines have been among those identifying themselves as "moderate" -- across party lines. Which just reinforces my suspicion that "moderate" really mean "weak minded, wishy washy, and easily swayed by the corporate media and the conservative propaganda machine."
Can we expect this trend (losing support among moderate republicans and independents) to continue as the Health care debate that has just begun reaches its' zenith?
People vote media coverage.
If the media gives Obama two times more favorable coverage than his challenger in 2012 like they did in 2008, he will be reelected.
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