With the news today that Sarah Palin is resigning, possibly to focus on a 2012 Presidential bid, what are her chances?
For the Republican nomination, at least at this early point, pretty good. For the general election, not so much.
Monthly national PPP surveys looking at the 2012 contest for President have consistently found Palin as the most popular of the likely Republican candidates with Republican voters. Around 75% of them have a positive opinion of her, ranking her above Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich every time we've polled it.
When it comes to the general election though, she does the worst of the GOP contenders against Barack Obama. Our four surveys on it so far have shown her trailing the President by an average of 16 points nationally, an outcome that would likely give Obama well over 400 electoral votes.
Candidates can certainly grow a lot from polling conducted three years before an election- Obama himself did. The problem for Palin is that most voters have already formed an opinion about her. On average our polls have shown that only 9% of the electorate doesn't know enough about the former Vice Presidential candidate to view her either positively or negatively. That doesn't give her a lot of room to define herself as a fresh face to any meaningful swath of voters.
For her to get elected in 2012 she would have to change the minds of a significant number of independent and Democratic votes about her- and it's a lot easier to make a positive first impression than it is to change a negative one once it's already been formed.
It's going to give Republican voters some interesting choices- they like Palin the most, but many may also realize that nominating her is a general election death wish. More than usual this will set up a choice between likability and electability, as Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and even Newt Gingrich fare better against Obama in our polling.
My guess is that Palin never holds elected office again.
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5 comments:
"For her to get elected in 2012 she would have to change the minds of a significant number of independent and Democratic votes about her- and it's a lot easier to make a positive first impression than it is to change a negative one once it's already been formed."
--That's a fair enough take on it, especially coming from an admittedly left-leaning analysis based polling blog. But don't you sort of have to admit that it's such a crazy move, perhaps there could be something to it?
As you just said, Palin has lots of minds to change if she's going to be a serious contender for the presidency - how was she going to do this as the governor of Alaska, logistically speaking? She's kind of staying "true to form" in shocking everyone and stepping down before a lame duck session, sure to be plagued w/ 20 more ethical investigations (and if recent history is any indication, nearly all of these will be frivolous, partisan accusations). She's staying true to form by avoiding 'politics as usual,' stepping down, and making her way to the lower 48. Who knows? Maybe she'll even engage in a bit of a make-over......one thing's for sure, now that she's leaving at the end of the month: she's got lots of time to "change minds." That may have been her intent all along.
It's an incredibly risky move, and I must admit, I think there's a good 60-70% chance of it backfiring. But then again, it's just so crazy - so crazy it could work.
Political speculation is fun.
I can assure you its not Democrats going after Palin its her fellow Republicans.
If you will remember it was supposed insider Republicans who dropped bombs on her after the election to try and sink her future campaigns.
It is now Republicans like Ed Rollins launching blistering attacks on Palin.
Palin is the black widow of the Republican party she is an attractive candidate to the rural and Southern base of the party. But she will kill any chance of them winning a general election.
Republicans know it and Democrats know it.
Take a guess on who wants to torpedo her campaign it isnt the Democrats.
"Palin is the black widow of the Republican party she is an attractive candidate to the rural and Southern base of the party. But she will kill any chance of them winning a general election."
Just to play devil's advocate, exactly how is a politician with a net positive approval rating (albeit a close one) in every poll I've seen as of late, a "black widow" with no appeal outside of the South? A Pew research poll just found Palin with a 45/44% approval rating, w/ 12% undecided. The last I checked, the South does not comprise 45% of the total population. I understand that simply "approving" of someone doesn't mean you'll vote for them, but I think there's enough evidence out there to suggest that Palin isn't as "fringe" as many would like to think. A 45% approval rating doesn't strike me as your standard approval rating for your standard "fringe-looney."
And to be fair, I think it's nothing short of amazing that she still has a net positive approval rating, given the beating she's taken in the national media.
I just don't get the whole "fringe" argument. Clearly, she's not viewed as such by all, and not even by a majority OR plurality, according to recent polls.
Brandon,
Palin's favorables/unfavorables were at 46/43 in the last CNN Opinion Research poll as well:
http://thepage.time.com/more-from-cnnopinion-research-poll/
Palin has the ability to change the opinions of alot of independents. She is a superstar with charisma. Nixon,Reagan and Clinton came back for 2nd acts in politics to win the White House.
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