Republicans in Congress are incredibly unpopular. And many of the party's Senate nominees across the country are too. Yet the party is still headed for a big election year. The reason? About 20% of the country is unhappy with both sides- and they're leaning strongly toward the GOP.
Our last national poll found that 19% of voters both disapproved of Barack Obama's job performance and disapproved of the Republicans in Congress. Those folks are planning to vote Republican for Congress by a 76-6 margin this fall. They may not be happy with either side but when it comes to deciding how to vote in November their feelings against Obama are a much more decisive factor than their feelings against Republicans in general.
It's a similar story when we look at Senate races across the country. Voters in Illinois who dislike both Obama and Mark Kirk plan to vote for a Kirk by a 47-9 margin. In California Carly Fiorina's up 69-13 with folks who don't like her or the President. Kelly Ayotte's advantage in New Hampshire is 56-19 with voters who mutually dislike her and Obama. And in older polls we found Sharron Angle up 40-32 in July and Ken Buck up 61-17 in August with voters who meet that description.
Pretty much across the board voters' ill will toward Obama outweighs their ill will toward the Republican Senate candidates. But there is one exception- in Delaware Chris Coons leads Christine O'Donnell 51-21 with folks who don't like her or Obama- I guess there's only so far some voters are willing to go.
The voters who hate everything and everyone are a key part of the electorate this year- and their support of the GOP is a big part of why the party's headed for a big victory.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
NC down on mosque ad
North Carolina isn't exactly a bastion of liberalism but even there a majority of voters think it's off base for candidates to exploit the proposed 'Ground Zero mosque' as a campaign issue. 51% label doing so as 'inappropriate' to just 37% who consider it to be an acceptable tactic.
This is particularly pertinent in the Triangle where Renee Ellmers, challenging long time Democratic Congressman Bob Etheridge, has run television ads about the mosque. Voters in that part of the state are particularly strong in their views that it's inappropriate with 56% expressing that sentiment.
Invoking the mosque is seen as acceptable by the Republican base, with 60% of GOP voters saying they think it's appropriate to only 29% who object. But for Ellmers to win she's going to have to take an overwhelming share of independents and also capture a healthy level of Democratic support. With those key groups exploiting the mosque is seen as particularly inappropriate- 68% of Democrats and 50% of independents share that feeling.
The mosque ad may end up hurting the GOP's long shot chances of knocking off Bob Etheridge but the overall picture for Republicans in the state when it comes to the House looks somewhat encouraging. North Carolina voters prefer a generic Republican for Congress over a Democrat 51-42. That's because of an overwhelming advantage for the GOP with independents, 53-27, and because 17% of Democrats are leaning toward voting Republican while only 2% are planning to cross party lines in the other direction.
The reality though is that North Carolina's potentially vulnerable members of Congress- Etheridge, Mike McIntyre, Larry Kissell, and Health Shuler- have always run well ahead of overall Democratic performance in their districts. So the GOP might be ahead of a generic Democrat in those places but the actual Democrats holding the seats in those districts are going to be harder to defeat.
Full results here
This is particularly pertinent in the Triangle where Renee Ellmers, challenging long time Democratic Congressman Bob Etheridge, has run television ads about the mosque. Voters in that part of the state are particularly strong in their views that it's inappropriate with 56% expressing that sentiment.
Invoking the mosque is seen as acceptable by the Republican base, with 60% of GOP voters saying they think it's appropriate to only 29% who object. But for Ellmers to win she's going to have to take an overwhelming share of independents and also capture a healthy level of Democratic support. With those key groups exploiting the mosque is seen as particularly inappropriate- 68% of Democrats and 50% of independents share that feeling.
The mosque ad may end up hurting the GOP's long shot chances of knocking off Bob Etheridge but the overall picture for Republicans in the state when it comes to the House looks somewhat encouraging. North Carolina voters prefer a generic Republican for Congress over a Democrat 51-42. That's because of an overwhelming advantage for the GOP with independents, 53-27, and because 17% of Democrats are leaning toward voting Republican while only 2% are planning to cross party lines in the other direction.
The reality though is that North Carolina's potentially vulnerable members of Congress- Etheridge, Mike McIntyre, Larry Kissell, and Health Shuler- have always run well ahead of overall Democratic performance in their districts. So the GOP might be ahead of a generic Democrat in those places but the actual Democrats holding the seats in those districts are going to be harder to defeat.
Full results here
Why things could get better for Dems
You can put me in the column of folks who don't think things have gotten better for Democrats in September. Yes, things have gotten better in some individual races (California Senate, Washington Senate, Ohio Governor come to mind.) But they've also gotten worse in some individual races (West Virginia Senate, Ohio Senate, Wisconsin Senate come to mind.) And looking at the national indicators I just don't see a whole lot of progress.
I do, however, think Democrats could end up doing better in November than the polls suggest right now for two big reasons- 1) most races right now have a lot more Democratic undecideds than Republicans and 2) the enthusiasm gap isn't going to do anything but shrink.
First a look at the undecideds. We have polled 14 Senate or Gubernatorial races since Labor Day. In 12 of them there are more undecided Democrats than Republicans and it's usually by a wide margin- the average across those 14 contests is 17% more undecided Democrats than Republicans.
GOP voters are incredibly unified this year and most Republican candidates don't have much room to grow with their base over the final month of the campaign. There's no guarantee that the undecided Democrats will end up coming home but more than likely they will. Last year's New Jersey Governor's race is a good example of this.
Comparing our poll in mid-September to our final poll of the race Jon Corzine gained 8 points with Democrats while Chris Christie saw just a 3 point increase with Republicans. Obviously it wasn't enough in the end for Corzine to win but he gained a lot of ground and if the same thing happens for Dems who are down by 5 points right now rather than double digits it could put them over the top.
Here's the party breakdown of the undecideds in races we've polled since Labor Day:
And now a look at the enthusiasm gap. Republicans have been extremely excited about voting in this election all the way since the summer of 2009. GOP voters really can't get any more enthused about voting this year than they already are. Democrats have been significantly lagging on this front for most of the cycle but there are indications it's getting better. For instance our July national poll found 51% of Democrats 'very excited' about voting this fall. In September that figure had increased to 59%.
We also saw in our polling of the New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial races as well as the Massachusetts Senate contest that the electorate started looking more Democratic as the election got closer- the party's voters who weren't interested in the election 1 or 2 months out started getting more engaged in the final weeks. It wasn't enough (largely because the party had weak candidates in all 3 of those races) but again it could be in a race with different circumstances.
It's going to be a bad election cycle for Democrats- there's no doubt about that. But as Democratic interest in the election increases and the party's undecided voters come home it might not be quite as bad as it looks today.
I do, however, think Democrats could end up doing better in November than the polls suggest right now for two big reasons- 1) most races right now have a lot more Democratic undecideds than Republicans and 2) the enthusiasm gap isn't going to do anything but shrink.
First a look at the undecideds. We have polled 14 Senate or Gubernatorial races since Labor Day. In 12 of them there are more undecided Democrats than Republicans and it's usually by a wide margin- the average across those 14 contests is 17% more undecided Democrats than Republicans.
GOP voters are incredibly unified this year and most Republican candidates don't have much room to grow with their base over the final month of the campaign. There's no guarantee that the undecided Democrats will end up coming home but more than likely they will. Last year's New Jersey Governor's race is a good example of this.
Comparing our poll in mid-September to our final poll of the race Jon Corzine gained 8 points with Democrats while Chris Christie saw just a 3 point increase with Republicans. Obviously it wasn't enough in the end for Corzine to win but he gained a lot of ground and if the same thing happens for Dems who are down by 5 points right now rather than double digits it could put them over the top.
Here's the party breakdown of the undecideds in races we've polled since Labor Day:
| Contest | % of undecideds who are Dems | % of undecideds who are GOP |
| Illinois Senate | 46 | 27 |
| Illinois Governor | 58 | 14 |
| North Carolina Senate | 57 | 21 |
| New Mexico Governor | 62 | 24 |
| Michigan Governor | 37 | 25 |
| Wisconsin Senate | 40 | 16 |
| Wisconsin Governor | 35 | 11 |
| West Virginia Senate | 46 | 39 |
| California Senate | 51 | 20 |
| California Governor | 51 | 21 |
| Delaware Senate | 45 | 34 |
| Kentucky Senate | 46 | 36 |
| New Hampshire Senate | 25 | 37 |
| New Hampshire Governor | 11 | 47 |
And now a look at the enthusiasm gap. Republicans have been extremely excited about voting in this election all the way since the summer of 2009. GOP voters really can't get any more enthused about voting this year than they already are. Democrats have been significantly lagging on this front for most of the cycle but there are indications it's getting better. For instance our July national poll found 51% of Democrats 'very excited' about voting this fall. In September that figure had increased to 59%.
We also saw in our polling of the New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial races as well as the Massachusetts Senate contest that the electorate started looking more Democratic as the election got closer- the party's voters who weren't interested in the election 1 or 2 months out started getting more engaged in the final weeks. It wasn't enough (largely because the party had weak candidates in all 3 of those races) but again it could be in a race with different circumstances.
It's going to be a bad election cycle for Democrats- there's no doubt about that. But as Democratic interest in the election increases and the party's undecided voters come home it might not be quite as bad as it looks today.
Brady leads but Quinn closing
Bill Brady continues to lead the Illinois Governor's race but Pat Quinn's pulling a little closer, trailing 42-35 in PPP's newest survey of the race. Independent Scott Lee Cohen gets 6%, Green Party candidate Rich Whitney is at 4%, and Libertarian Lex Green is at 2%.
Quinn's doing better than he was in an August PPP poll, when he trailed by 9, largely because of an improved standing with independents. He continues to trail Brady 39-27 with them, but that's a significant improvement from his 25 point deficit in the last poll. Quinn is incredibly unpopular with independent voters, at an 18/67 approval spread. But those voters don't like Brady either, viewing him negatively 32/38.
It's amazing that Quinn's still in this given his continuing incredible unpopularity. 60% of voters in the state now disapprove of the job he's doing to only 24% who are happy with it. In addition to those dreadful numbers with independents only 6% of Republicans think he's doing a good job and even with Democrats he's at just a 42/38 spread. But he's fortunate that GOP voters nominated a very weak candidate themselves. Only 36% of folks in Illinois see Brady in a favorable light while 44% have a negative opinion of him.
The two biggest things to watch in this race over the final five weeks are the undecideds and the 10% of voters currently leaning either toward Cohen or Whitney.
The undecideds are an overwhelmingly Democratic bunch. 67% voted for Barack Obama while only 20% supported John McCain. They're planning to vote Democratic for Congress by a 44-17 margin this fall. They're supporting Alexi Giannoulias by a 21 point margin over Mark Kirk. But they don't like Pat Quinn- only 14% of them approve of him with 42% disapproving. Whether their Democratic loyalties outweigh their dislike of Quinn in the end may determine whether he can still pull out this race despite his very poor personal numbers.
The folks supporting Cohen or Whitney right now are also a Democratic leaning bunch. 52% voted for Obama to only 32% who supported McCain. They're planning to vote Democratic for Congress by a 43-28 margin. But they really hate Quinn- 4% approve of him and 83% disapprove of him.
If you allocate all of the undecideds who voted for Obama to Quinn and the ones who voted for McCain to Brady, the Brady lead shrinks to 44-43. My guess is that most of the undecideds will indeed end up in the Quinn camp and make this a much closer race. Quinn's path with the Whitney and Cohen voters is tougher though and he needs to hope those folks' dislike of him isn't so strong that they'll go so far as to vote for Brady to get him out.
This is a pretty fascinating race.
Full results here
Quinn's doing better than he was in an August PPP poll, when he trailed by 9, largely because of an improved standing with independents. He continues to trail Brady 39-27 with them, but that's a significant improvement from his 25 point deficit in the last poll. Quinn is incredibly unpopular with independent voters, at an 18/67 approval spread. But those voters don't like Brady either, viewing him negatively 32/38.
It's amazing that Quinn's still in this given his continuing incredible unpopularity. 60% of voters in the state now disapprove of the job he's doing to only 24% who are happy with it. In addition to those dreadful numbers with independents only 6% of Republicans think he's doing a good job and even with Democrats he's at just a 42/38 spread. But he's fortunate that GOP voters nominated a very weak candidate themselves. Only 36% of folks in Illinois see Brady in a favorable light while 44% have a negative opinion of him.
The two biggest things to watch in this race over the final five weeks are the undecideds and the 10% of voters currently leaning either toward Cohen or Whitney.
The undecideds are an overwhelmingly Democratic bunch. 67% voted for Barack Obama while only 20% supported John McCain. They're planning to vote Democratic for Congress by a 44-17 margin this fall. They're supporting Alexi Giannoulias by a 21 point margin over Mark Kirk. But they don't like Pat Quinn- only 14% of them approve of him with 42% disapproving. Whether their Democratic loyalties outweigh their dislike of Quinn in the end may determine whether he can still pull out this race despite his very poor personal numbers.
The folks supporting Cohen or Whitney right now are also a Democratic leaning bunch. 52% voted for Obama to only 32% who supported McCain. They're planning to vote Democratic for Congress by a 43-28 margin. But they really hate Quinn- 4% approve of him and 83% disapprove of him.
If you allocate all of the undecideds who voted for Obama to Quinn and the ones who voted for McCain to Brady, the Brady lead shrinks to 44-43. My guess is that most of the undecideds will indeed end up in the Quinn camp and make this a much closer race. Quinn's path with the Whitney and Cohen voters is tougher though and he needs to hope those folks' dislike of him isn't so strong that they'll go so far as to vote for Brady to get him out.
This is a pretty fascinating race.
Full results here
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Burr expands lead
Buoyed by an extensive television advertising campaign Richard Burr has opened up a 49-36 lead over Elaine Marshall in North Carolina's US Senate race, with Libertarian Michael Beitler at 4%.
The main thing Burr's done over the last four weeks is consolidate the Republican base. He now has an 88-1 lead with voters in his own party compared to just 75-9 in late August. He's also increased his lead with independents from 20 points to 25 points and pushed his Democratic support from 16% to 20%.
Burr had posted net negative approval numbers in every PPP poll from February through August but in the wake of this recent blitz he's now pushed them into positive territory at 47% approving and 38% disapproving. Burr has broken the previous record for his highest approval number in PPP's polling by a wide margin- the previous best was 42% in December of 2009.
Marshall continues to be plagued by comparatively low name recognition. It's worth noting that among respondents who have an opinion of Marshall, whether it's positive or negative, she actually leads Burr 47-45. Those numbers suggest that if she was competitive with Burr resources wise this would be a toss up race.
Of course the main reason Burr's lead has expanded over the last month is that at this point the candidates' resources are not comparable. Asked who they feel has been running the more visible campaign 54% of respondents say Burr to only 19% who say Marshall. The reality is that Burr's money is allowing him to have almost complete control of the information flow to voters so even though Marshall is one of the more well liked Senate candidates Democrats have across the country she's still having trouble keeping up.
On another note despite Libertarian Beitler's limited support 56% of voters think that he should be included in all of the debates to 22% who think he should not and 22% who are unsure. Support for Beitler's inclusion comes from slight majorities of Democrats (54%) and Republicans (51%) and an overwhelming portion of independents (71%).
The race will likely tighten again once Marshall is able to start running ads to combat Burr's but for now he finds himself in his strongest position of the entire cycle.
Full results here
The main thing Burr's done over the last four weeks is consolidate the Republican base. He now has an 88-1 lead with voters in his own party compared to just 75-9 in late August. He's also increased his lead with independents from 20 points to 25 points and pushed his Democratic support from 16% to 20%.
Burr had posted net negative approval numbers in every PPP poll from February through August but in the wake of this recent blitz he's now pushed them into positive territory at 47% approving and 38% disapproving. Burr has broken the previous record for his highest approval number in PPP's polling by a wide margin- the previous best was 42% in December of 2009.
Marshall continues to be plagued by comparatively low name recognition. It's worth noting that among respondents who have an opinion of Marshall, whether it's positive or negative, she actually leads Burr 47-45. Those numbers suggest that if she was competitive with Burr resources wise this would be a toss up race.
Of course the main reason Burr's lead has expanded over the last month is that at this point the candidates' resources are not comparable. Asked who they feel has been running the more visible campaign 54% of respondents say Burr to only 19% who say Marshall. The reality is that Burr's money is allowing him to have almost complete control of the information flow to voters so even though Marshall is one of the more well liked Senate candidates Democrats have across the country she's still having trouble keeping up.
On another note despite Libertarian Beitler's limited support 56% of voters think that he should be included in all of the debates to 22% who think he should not and 22% who are unsure. Support for Beitler's inclusion comes from slight majorities of Democrats (54%) and Republicans (51%) and an overwhelming portion of independents (71%).
The race will likely tighten again once Marshall is able to start running ads to combat Burr's but for now he finds himself in his strongest position of the entire cycle.
Full results here
Illinois remains close
The Illinois Senate race continues to be very close, but because Mark Kirk is doing a better job of consolidating his base than Alexi Giannoulias is he's taken a small lead after trailing by 2 points on PPP's previous two polls of the race. Kirk is ahead 40-36 with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones at 8% and Libertarian Mike Labno geting 3%.
Our August poll found Kirk winning 74% of Republicans and Giannoulias getting 72% of Democrats. Now Kirk has expanded his support from his own party to 79% while Giannoulias' support from his has declined to 68%. Kirk is getting 9% of the Democratic vote while only 2% of Republicans are planning to vote for Giannoulias. Kirk's double digit lead with independents persists at 41-27.
This continues to be a race between two deeply unpopular candidates. Giannoulias' favorability is 33/48 and Kirk's isn't much better at 33/47. 16% of voters have a negative opinion of both candidates and Kirk leads Giannoulias 35-16 with them, accounting for most of his overall lead. For many swing voters this is going to come down to choosing who they see as the lesser of two evils and right now Kirk is winning that vote.
A big factor to watch moving forward is whether Jones, the Green Party candidate, can maintain his support in the final 5 weeks as it becomes more clear that votes for him could push this race into the Republican column. On one hand Jones' voters strongly dislike Giannoulias- 56% see him unfavorably to only 21% with a positive opinion. On the other hand they are a strongly Democratic leaning lot with 65% of them having voted for Barack Obama to only 28% who were McCain voters. If Jones fades Giannoulias will gain but if his support remains steady that's going to be a big plus for Kirk.
Another factor that could result in the race tightening further as voters more firmly make up their minds is that 46% of the undecideds are Democrats compared to 27% who are Republicans and 27% who are independents. If those folks end up 'coming home,' that will move Giannoulias even closer.
This continues to be one of the closest- and depressing- Senate races in the country. Only 39% of voters say they're excited about who they're voting for with 45% saying they wish someone else was running. This is one race where you may end up seeing an enthusiasm gap on both sides.
Full results here
Our August poll found Kirk winning 74% of Republicans and Giannoulias getting 72% of Democrats. Now Kirk has expanded his support from his own party to 79% while Giannoulias' support from his has declined to 68%. Kirk is getting 9% of the Democratic vote while only 2% of Republicans are planning to vote for Giannoulias. Kirk's double digit lead with independents persists at 41-27.
This continues to be a race between two deeply unpopular candidates. Giannoulias' favorability is 33/48 and Kirk's isn't much better at 33/47. 16% of voters have a negative opinion of both candidates and Kirk leads Giannoulias 35-16 with them, accounting for most of his overall lead. For many swing voters this is going to come down to choosing who they see as the lesser of two evils and right now Kirk is winning that vote.
A big factor to watch moving forward is whether Jones, the Green Party candidate, can maintain his support in the final 5 weeks as it becomes more clear that votes for him could push this race into the Republican column. On one hand Jones' voters strongly dislike Giannoulias- 56% see him unfavorably to only 21% with a positive opinion. On the other hand they are a strongly Democratic leaning lot with 65% of them having voted for Barack Obama to only 28% who were McCain voters. If Jones fades Giannoulias will gain but if his support remains steady that's going to be a big plus for Kirk.
Another factor that could result in the race tightening further as voters more firmly make up their minds is that 46% of the undecideds are Democrats compared to 27% who are Republicans and 27% who are independents. If those folks end up 'coming home,' that will move Giannoulias even closer.
This continues to be one of the closest- and depressing- Senate races in the country. Only 39% of voters say they're excited about who they're voting for with 45% saying they wish someone else was running. This is one race where you may end up seeing an enthusiasm gap on both sides.
Full results here
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Obama in Illinois
The Illinois poll we'll release this week won't do much to change the conventional wisdom on either the Senate or Gubernatorial race in the state but it does have one pretty surprising finding: Barack Obama's approval numbers have dropped into negative territory even with likely voters in his home state. 44% approve of the job he's doing while 49% say they disapprove.
Obama's home state approval numbers had before avoided some of the trends dragging down his numbers in other states but that's no longer the case. Independents strongly disapprove of him with just 35% feeling he's doing a good job to 57% unhappy. Whatever support he may have maintained with Republicans has now evaporated, with only 3% of them approving of him. And although his 80/12 spread with Democrats is still pretty solid it's not what it had been previously.
Does this mean Obama would lose Illinois if there was an election tomorrow? Of course not. The likely electorate in the state for the midterm is much more conservative than you would see for a Presidential election with voters on this poll having supported Obama by only 15 points in 2008 compared to his actual 25 point victory in the state. Still it's a sign that even on the home front Obama can't be expected to be much of a help this fall.
We'll have Senate numbers tomorrow and Governor numbers on Thursday.
Obama's home state approval numbers had before avoided some of the trends dragging down his numbers in other states but that's no longer the case. Independents strongly disapprove of him with just 35% feeling he's doing a good job to 57% unhappy. Whatever support he may have maintained with Republicans has now evaporated, with only 3% of them approving of him. And although his 80/12 spread with Democrats is still pretty solid it's not what it had been previously.
Does this mean Obama would lose Illinois if there was an election tomorrow? Of course not. The likely electorate in the state for the midterm is much more conservative than you would see for a Presidential election with voters on this poll having supported Obama by only 15 points in 2008 compared to his actual 25 point victory in the state. Still it's a sign that even on the home front Obama can't be expected to be much of a help this fall.
We'll have Senate numbers tomorrow and Governor numbers on Thursday.
Who do you hate more?
We'll have Illinois Senate numbers out tomorrow and has always been the case when we've polled there voters in the state dislike both Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk.
Illinois is just one of quite a few Senate races where we find that voters have a net unfavorable view of both major party candidates. Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire in addition to Illinois are states where our last polls found both candidates quite unpopular. In Alaska and Delaware our last polls found the Democratic candidate with slightly negative favorability numbers and the Republican candidate with very negative numbers. And our last Missouri poll found the Republican slightly unpopular and the Democrat much more so.
It's a sign of how down voters are on politicians of both parties right now that so many of these key races are shaping up as a choice between the lesser of two evils.
The one exception to the rule? West Virginia where voters like John Raese a little bit and Joe Manchin a lot. That's the only Senate race where we currently find both candidates with positive favorability numbers.
Illinois is just one of quite a few Senate races where we find that voters have a net unfavorable view of both major party candidates. Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire in addition to Illinois are states where our last polls found both candidates quite unpopular. In Alaska and Delaware our last polls found the Democratic candidate with slightly negative favorability numbers and the Republican candidate with very negative numbers. And our last Missouri poll found the Republican slightly unpopular and the Democrat much more so.
It's a sign of how down voters are on politicians of both parties right now that so many of these key races are shaping up as a choice between the lesser of two evils.
The one exception to the rule? West Virginia where voters like John Raese a little bit and Joe Manchin a lot. That's the only Senate race where we currently find both candidates with positive favorability numbers.
Summing it all up
Last week someone asked me what poll data I would use to sum up what's happening in this election in the simplest terms possible. Here it is:
-On our last national poll 49% of respondents said the economy had gotten worse since Barack Obama became President.
-The folks who thought the economy had gotten worse who had already decided how to vote in November are going Republican by a 92-8 margin.
If voters think the economy's gotten worse under a Democratic President they're going to vote Republican. Add in the Democrats' enthusiasm issues and you have the formula for the big GOP victory that's likely on the way.
-On our last national poll 49% of respondents said the economy had gotten worse since Barack Obama became President.
-The folks who thought the economy had gotten worse who had already decided how to vote in November are going Republican by a 92-8 margin.
If voters think the economy's gotten worse under a Democratic President they're going to vote Republican. Add in the Democrats' enthusiasm issues and you have the formula for the big GOP victory that's likely on the way.
Voting Time!
We have Illinois and North Carolina numbers coming this week. Now the choices for next weekend:
-Colorado. We found Michael Bennet ahead the last time we polled it, before the primary. Most numbers since then have shown Ken Buck ahead. We're overdue for another look at Colorado.
-Connecticut. All the sudden this race looks like it could be very interesting. Or if Blumenthal's internals are correct not so much. Either way worth our first look since January.
-Florida. Marco Rubio seems to be pulling away in most polling and I don't really doubt that but always enjoy looking at this fascinating race. Rasmussen suggested Rick Scott might be doing better last week- do we confirm or deny?
-Nevada. Haven't gone there since July and with multitudes of polls coming out in the state every week showing basically the same thing I'm not sure our take is really needed but if you want to see a PPP Nevada poll here's your chance.
-New York. Can't believe this is on the list but after last week's polling roller coaster there I'm interested to see what we would find.
-Washington. Most recent polling has shown Patty Murray pulling away but we haven't been there in a while so I'm interested to see if we would find the same.
Voting is open until Thursday morning, we'll do at least the top 2. And please give your suggestions for questions beyond the obvious in these states.
-Colorado. We found Michael Bennet ahead the last time we polled it, before the primary. Most numbers since then have shown Ken Buck ahead. We're overdue for another look at Colorado.
-Connecticut. All the sudden this race looks like it could be very interesting. Or if Blumenthal's internals are correct not so much. Either way worth our first look since January.
-Florida. Marco Rubio seems to be pulling away in most polling and I don't really doubt that but always enjoy looking at this fascinating race. Rasmussen suggested Rick Scott might be doing better last week- do we confirm or deny?
-Nevada. Haven't gone there since July and with multitudes of polls coming out in the state every week showing basically the same thing I'm not sure our take is really needed but if you want to see a PPP Nevada poll here's your chance.
-New York. Can't believe this is on the list but after last week's polling roller coaster there I'm interested to see what we would find.
-Washington. Most recent polling has shown Patty Murray pulling away but we haven't been there in a while so I'm interested to see if we would find the same.
Voting is open until Thursday morning, we'll do at least the top 2. And please give your suggestions for questions beyond the obvious in these states.
More good numbers for Romney
PPP's looks ahead to the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination fight continue to find good news for Mitt Romney: he leads in the big states of California and Michigan. Mike Huckabee has the edge in West Virginia.
In California Romney's ahead with 24% to 21% for Newt Gingrich, 18% for Sarah Palin, and 17% for Mike Huckabee. His numbers there are reminiscent of what we saw in our most recent national poll: he's able to lead despite running behind with the conservatives who dominate Republican primary electorates because of an overwhelming lead with moderates. Among conservatives Gingrich is the leader with 24% to 21% for Palin and 20% for Romney. But Romney gets 36% with moderates with none of the others exceeding even 14% and that fuels his overall lead.
In Michigan, where Romney has strong family ties, his large lead is no surprise. He's at 30% with the other three top contenders in more or less a three way tie- Palin gets 17%, Gingrich 16%, and Huckabee 14%. Romney leads with both moderates and conservatives there but the margin is only 8% with conservatives while it expands to 22% with moderates. One thing interesting in these numbers is that Palin actually leads Romney 26-21 with voters who consider themselves to be members of the 'Tea Party.' But in Michigan only 27% of Republicans do identify with that label and Romney leads her 34-14 with the ones who don't.
In West Virginia Huckabee at 27% and Palin at 24% show the highest degree of strength with Gingrich at 16% and Romney at 13% polling further back. Huckabee leads with both moderates and conservatives there.
Full results here
In California Romney's ahead with 24% to 21% for Newt Gingrich, 18% for Sarah Palin, and 17% for Mike Huckabee. His numbers there are reminiscent of what we saw in our most recent national poll: he's able to lead despite running behind with the conservatives who dominate Republican primary electorates because of an overwhelming lead with moderates. Among conservatives Gingrich is the leader with 24% to 21% for Palin and 20% for Romney. But Romney gets 36% with moderates with none of the others exceeding even 14% and that fuels his overall lead.
In Michigan, where Romney has strong family ties, his large lead is no surprise. He's at 30% with the other three top contenders in more or less a three way tie- Palin gets 17%, Gingrich 16%, and Huckabee 14%. Romney leads with both moderates and conservatives there but the margin is only 8% with conservatives while it expands to 22% with moderates. One thing interesting in these numbers is that Palin actually leads Romney 26-21 with voters who consider themselves to be members of the 'Tea Party.' But in Michigan only 27% of Republicans do identify with that label and Romney leads her 34-14 with the ones who don't.
In West Virginia Huckabee at 27% and Palin at 24% show the highest degree of strength with Gingrich at 16% and Romney at 13% polling further back. Huckabee leads with both moderates and conservatives there.
Full results here
Democrats underperforming with black voters
One of the things giving Democratic candidates across the country trouble this year that has perhaps not gotten as much attention as it should is that they are really under polling with black voters. It's a given that black turnout is going to be way down from its 2008 levels this year but more troublesome for Democratic candidates is that they are running well behind Barack Obama's approval numbers with African Americans in almost every key race we've polled over the last six weeks.
There's a couple ways to look at that. One is that polling frequently underestimates Democratic performance with black voters further out from an election and that 90% of them will vote Democratic as they usually do. If that's the case polls right now are underestimating the party's candidates across the board and Democrats won't do as poorly in November as the current conventional wisdom. The other way to look at it is that black voters, like other voters, are less enthused with the Democrats than they are in the average election cycle and will indeed support them at a lower rate than usual.
If I had to guess I'd say Democratic candidates will end up doing a lot better with black voters than they are currently, but that the level of support they receive will not quite be at its usual lofty levels. Democratic support from African Americans may more often this year end up in the 80% plus or minus 5 points range instead of the 90% plus or minus 5 points range.
Here's the data comparing Obama's approval with blacks to the support level of Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial candidates with them in states where the black population is at least 10%:
On average the Democratic nominees are running 21 points behind Obama's approval with black voters. Closing that gap is going to be key to winning these races or in some cases even making them competitive.
There's a couple ways to look at that. One is that polling frequently underestimates Democratic performance with black voters further out from an election and that 90% of them will vote Democratic as they usually do. If that's the case polls right now are underestimating the party's candidates across the board and Democrats won't do as poorly in November as the current conventional wisdom. The other way to look at it is that black voters, like other voters, are less enthused with the Democrats than they are in the average election cycle and will indeed support them at a lower rate than usual.
If I had to guess I'd say Democratic candidates will end up doing a lot better with black voters than they are currently, but that the level of support they receive will not quite be at its usual lofty levels. Democratic support from African Americans may more often this year end up in the 80% plus or minus 5 points range instead of the 90% plus or minus 5 points range.
Here's the data comparing Obama's approval with blacks to the support level of Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial candidates with them in states where the black population is at least 10%:
| Race | Obama Approval w/Blacks | Democrat w/Blacks (Dropoff) |
| Illinois Governor | 88% | Pat Quinn 41% (47) |
| Florida Senate | 79% | Kendrick Meek 48% (31) |
| Texas Governor | 90% | Bill White 62% (28) |
| Pennsylvania Governor | 80% | Dan Onorato 56% (24) |
| North Carolina Senate | 87% | Elaine Marshall 67% (20) |
| Florida Governor | 79% | Alex Sink 60% (19) |
| Illinois Senate | 88% | Alexi Giannoulias 69% (19) |
| Delaware Senate | 82% | Chris Coons 63% (19) |
| Michigan Governor | 74% | Virg Bernero 57% (17) |
| Pennsylvania Senate | 80% | Joe Sestak 64% (16) |
| Ohio Senate | 84% | Lee Fisher 68% (16) |
| Missouri Senate | 78% | Robin Carnahan 67% (11) |
| Ohio Governor | 84% | Ted Strickland 79% (5) |
On average the Democratic nominees are running 21 points behind Obama's approval with black voters. Closing that gap is going to be key to winning these races or in some cases even making them competitive.
Friday, September 24, 2010
The Dems' Bad Midwest
There's little doubt that the Midwest is the Democrats' toughest region this year. If the election was today the party would almost certainly lose the Governorships it holds in Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. It's also more than likely at this point to lose the Senate seats it has in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana, miss out on a once promising pick up opportunity in Ohio, and quite possibly lose their seat in Illinois as well. And there are too many House seats the party could lose in the region to count.
The question then is: what's going on in the Midwest? Here are four of the main reasons:
-Unpopular Democratic Governors.
Our last Ohio poll found Ted Strickland with a 34% approval rating and 52% of voters disapproving of him. That makes him the most popular Democratic Governor in the region:
When voters think the Democrats they have now are doing such a bad job they're not particularly inclined to keep the ones running for reelection or to replace the retiring ones with other Democrats.
-An Unusual Souring on Obama
Nationally we find 88% of the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are still happy with the job he's doing. But significantly larger portions of his voters have become disenchanted throughout the Midwest:
Obviously the more unhappy Obama's voters are the more likely they are to support Republicans this year and that's a trend we're seeing throughout the region.
-The Biggest Enthusiasm Gaps
Democrats are having problems turning out their base everywhere but perhaps because voters in the region are down on Obama and their Democratic Governors that's turning out to be a particularly dramatic problem in the Midwest:
Obama won these states by double digits but the 2010 electorate would make all of them except Illinois into toss ups...and there's a lot more Obama voters choosing Republicans this time than the other way around. There is perilously low interest in the midterm election among Midwestern Democrats.
A Collapse with Independents
Independents are leaning toward the GOP everywhere but the trend is particularly dramatic in the Midwest:
There are more Democrats than Republicans in most of these states but not enough to make up for these kinds of gaps with independents.
The question then is: what's going on in the Midwest? Here are four of the main reasons:
-Unpopular Democratic Governors.
Our last Ohio poll found Ted Strickland with a 34% approval rating and 52% of voters disapproving of him. That makes him the most popular Democratic Governor in the region:
| State | Governor | Approval |
| Ted Strickland | Ohio | 34/52 |
| Jim Doyle | Wisconsin | 29/62 |
| Jennifer Granholm | Michigan | 29/63 |
| Chet Culver | Iowa | 28/56 |
| Ed Rendell | Pennsylvania | 27/63 |
| Pat Quinn | Illinois | 23/53 |
When voters think the Democrats they have now are doing such a bad job they're not particularly inclined to keep the ones running for reelection or to replace the retiring ones with other Democrats.
-An Unusual Souring on Obama
Nationally we find 88% of the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are still happy with the job he's doing. But significantly larger portions of his voters have become disenchanted throughout the Midwest:
| State | % of Obama voters still approving |
| Illinois | 87 |
| Ohio | 82 |
| Iowa | 82 |
| Michigan | 79 |
| Pennsylvania | 78 |
| Wisconsin | 78 |
Obviously the more unhappy Obama's voters are the more likely they are to support Republicans this year and that's a trend we're seeing throughout the region.
-The Biggest Enthusiasm Gaps
Democrats are having problems turning out their base everywhere but perhaps because voters in the region are down on Obama and their Democratic Governors that's turning out to be a particularly dramatic problem in the Midwest:
| State | 2010 Electorate | 2008 Vote | Gap |
| Illinois | Obama +9 | Obama +25 | 16 pts |
| Michigan | Obama +1 | Obama +16 | 15 pts |
| Wisconsin | Even | Obama +14 | 14 pts |
| Pennsylvania | McCain +1 | Obama +10 | 11 pts |
| Iowa | Even | Obama +10 | 10 pts |
| Ohio | McCain +3 | Obama +4 | 7 pts |
Obama won these states by double digits but the 2010 electorate would make all of them except Illinois into toss ups...and there's a lot more Obama voters choosing Republicans this time than the other way around. There is perilously low interest in the midterm election among Midwestern Democrats.
A Collapse with Independents
Independents are leaning toward the GOP everywhere but the trend is particularly dramatic in the Midwest:
| Race | Republican Lead w/Independents |
| Michigan Governor | 40 |
| Pennsylvania Governor | 32 |
| Iowa Senate | 30 |
| Pennsylvania Senate | 27 |
| Illinois Governor | 25 |
| Illinois Senate | 16 |
| Iowa Governor | 16 |
| Ohio Senate | 13 |
| Wisconsin Governor | 12 |
| Ohio Governor | 11 |
| Wisconsin Senate | 11 |
There are more Democrats than Republicans in most of these states but not enough to make up for these kinds of gaps with independents.