Monday, November 1, 2010

California tightens

The contests for Senate and Governor in California have tightened over the final week of the campaign, although the Democratic candidates still retain the lead in both races. Barbara Boxer is up 50-46 on Carly Fiorina for the Senate, while Jerry Brown is ahead of Meg Whitman by a 51-46 margin for Governor.

Boxer leads despite posting atrocious approval numbers in this final poll at 40% of voters happy with her job performance and 50% displeased. Fortunately for her Californians aren't real enamored with Fiorina either- only 42% rate her favorably to 44% with a negative opinion. Boxer's position right now might be a lot more perilous if she had drawn a stronger opponent.

The formula for winning as a Republican in a deep blue state is to get about 20% of the Democratic vote to cross over and to rack up a large advantage with independents. Fiorina is winning only 12% of Democrats and actually trails Boxer by a 50-46 margin with independents. She'll have to outperform her poll numbers on both of those measures Tuesday to have a chance at winning.

The story is pretty similar in the race for Governor. Meg Whitman is winning only 13% of the Democratic vote and trails Jerry Brown by the same 50-46 margin with independents that Fiorina has against Boxer. Despite her profligate spending California voters never warmed up to Whitman- 50% of them express an unfavorable opinion about her to just 38% who say that they like her.

Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in California, appears to be headed for defeat. 51% of voters say they will oppose it to only 44% who plan to cast a yes vote. Polls showed support for the measure over the summer but its popularity has faded as the election has moved closer.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Hedging your bets across the board, I see.

Anonymous said...


As a reader, thanks for this and staying up. Hope you'll get some sleep after Tues and that the biz is doing well. cheers~

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