Monday, February 14, 2011

Republican Poll Preview

We're going to have our newest national Republican President poll out in full tomorrow but here are some of the highlights:

-Want to know just how unrepresentative of the GOP base CPAC straw poll voters are? Among actual Republican primary voters only 30% have a favorable opinion of Ron Paul to 37% who view him in a negative light. Outside of his passionate but small following most Republicans actually dislike Paul (and I imagine wish he would go away.)

-Donald Trump for President? Well he'll have to overcome the fact that a majority of Republicans dislike him. Only 29% rate Trump favorably to 56% who have a negative opinion. Trump certainly has name recognition- 85% with an opinion of him is greater than the 81% for Newt Gingrich, 80% for Mitt Romney, and 73% for Mike Huckabee and trails behind only Palin's 90%. But his name recognition is a curse- it's not as if Trump's poll numbers could rise as voters get to know him better- they already know him and dislike him.

-We've written a lot about how Republicans love Sarah Palin but she does poorly in Presidential preference polls because even if folks like her they don't exactly think she's White House material. We asked GOP primary voters on this poll whether they thought Palin was more qualified to be President or Vice President- only 29% said she was most qualified for the Chief Executive job while 46% said she was more suited to be #2. I doubt she's going to run but if she does that sort of mentality within her own party base is going to be difficult to overcome.

We'll have a little more from the poll later this afternoon, and the full thing will be out tomorrow.


Jonny V said...

I wonder if all of the usual suspects are still going to be saying your polls are biased now that Fox News has a new poll out that has Obama beating all of the GOP candidates by huge margins?

The right wing commenters on this site need to deal with the reality that while Obama's popularity isn't that high - the opinion of most Americans on the leading Republicans is exceedingly low.

Anonymous said...

How do you know that Democrats wouldn't have answered the same way when asked about Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama around 2007?

The question is weird. Just because people feel she's better suited for the VP position doesn't mean they wouldn't vote her for the Presidential position if the alternatives in the primary are hacks (and I think a fair case can be made that the rest of the field stinks). Was the same question posed about the others?

Tom Jensen said...

Yes. She was the only person it came out nearly that bad for.

Anonymous said...

But it sounds like none of them came off that well on that question.

Look, people who support Gingrich, Romney, and Huckabee have every incentive to say that she's more suited for the vice presidency than the presidency.

If you supported Romney, you aren't going to vote for her anyway in the primaries. Of course you are going to choose the VP option.

vp said...

They obviously think that Sarah would do such a great job of breaking ties in the Senate that she would be wasted in the Oval Office!

Anonymous said...

The main reason I like Palin is because those with political views I detest just go crazy when they have to deal with her. That doesn't mean I'll vote for her, just that I like watching the meltdown.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Why couldn't you go ahead and release the full results today?

Anonymous said...

Sounds to me that the person writing this doesn't really like Trump. Who cares if you like him. why do we want politicians to keep running this country. Lets get a business man. Trump may have failed at some things in the past...but has been much more successful than failing. Dont only use facts to support one side of something....lets have some real non-bias reviews on this Trump guy. The fact is....he is ruthless....knows the Chinese...our greatest economic and military threat...and is up front with his vies in interviews....unlike other politicians who are asked the same things...(social views, economic views, etc).

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Why couldn't you go ahead and release the full results today?"

Because we never do that. We poll on a lot of issues and races, and spread out the releases over an entire week so we can focus on each topic individually.

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