Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Snyder quickly falls out of favor

Over the last few weeks we've found that voters in Ohio and Wisconsin have quickly soured on their new Republican Governors, John Kasich and Scott Walker respectively. But Michigan's Rick Snyder wasn't like Kasich and Walker. He campaigned as a moderate and won by 18 points in a state bluer than either Ohio or Wisconsin while his counterparts were just squeaking by in their races. You would think that even if Snyder's popularity has fallen after two months in office it hasn't fallen as far as Kasich and Walker's.

Think again. Snyder actually now has the worst numbers of this new trio of GOP Governors, with only 33% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. And despite his overwhelming victory last fall voters now say that if they could do it over they'd pick Virg Bernero over Snyder by a 47-45 margin. Snyder's current status is definitely emblematic of the adage that the higher you climb the farther you fall.

What's happened to Snyder? What made him such a formidable candidate last fall was incredibly strong support from independents and an unusual amount of crossover appeal to Democrats. Neither of those things has lasted. His approval with independents is now just 32% with more of them at 44% disapproving. That's a remarkable drop given that our final poll of the race last fall found him leading by 40 points with those voters. He's also down to just a 10% approval with Democratic voters. If there's any silver lining in his numbers it's that he does maintain strong support within his own party- 68% of Republicans approve of him to 13% disapproving.

Snyder's ability to win big in a blue state was due to his successfully presenting himself to the voters as a centrist but he's lost that image with a lot of folks over the last few months. In September we found 46% of voters in the state thought Snyder was 'about right' ideologically to only 26% who thought he was 'too conservative.' Now those numbers are basically tied with 37% judging him about right and 36% too conservative.

A few specific things are causing Snyder these problems. His signature Emergency Financial Act has been a giant thud with voters in the state. Only 32% of voters support it to 50% in opposition. Democrats are a lot more convinced that it's a bad thing (71%) than Republicans are that it's a good thing (53%), and independents split against it by a 45/36 margin as well.

Snyder's also earned the ire of the voters because of the perception that he's targeting collective bargaining rights. 59% of folks in Michigan think that public employees should have the right to collective bargaining while only 32% are opposed, and 49% of voters even favor a state constitutional amendment to guarantee collective bargaining rights while 37% are opposed to such a measure. While union households are obviously the most supportive of collective bargaining, nonunion households support it by a 53/39 margin as well so the voters Snyder is antagonizing on this issue go beyond who you might expect.

The one good piece of news for Snyder in this poll is that as far as his stock has fallen, voters don't want to recall him. Only 38% go so far as to say they would support that move, while 49% are opposed. In Wisconsin earlier this month we found voters in the state evenly divided on recalling Walker even though his approval spread of 46/52 was much better than Snyder's. That suggests that even though Snyder has fewer voters standing with him than Walker, the ones unhappy with him aren't as unhappy. That leaves more room for his numbers to recover once things calm down. It's been one rocky start though.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

So the percentage of Republicans dropped from 37% to 28% in a couple of months?

Anonymous said...

Pretty awful numbers for Snyder, especially given that Bernero was not very popular.

Debbie said...

How could he possibly have that big of an approval percentage,
33%. The man doesn't live in the real world like most of us, oh that's right he's a REPUBLICAN! they live in some fantasy world, where they get all the tax breaks, make ALL the money and the rest of us hard working Americans, just work until we die. to quote Snyder directly, from the Times Herald, in Port Huron, "The goal here isn't to punish people," he said. "But let's gid rid of the impediments we've had for far too long." he wants to get rid of more working people, erase bounderies and employ fewer people at less cost. Who does he think is going to shoulder all the taxes he wants us to pay? because the less people the GREATER our tax burden becomes. The man should be RECALLED, before he does anymore damage. All hail Comrade Snyder :-(

Anonymous said...

Snyder MUST be recalled! I will work 24 hours a day, seven days a week beginning June 1st to ensure that he IS recalled. Power to the people!

Miles said...

So typical of the fickle midwestern voters...

Dustin Ingalls said...

"So the percentage of Republicans dropped from 37% to 28% in a couple of months?"

It was 35% in December. It's not necessarily a raw-number drop--it's proportional. With Democrats more fired up than last fall, even if Republican interest stays the same, their % of the electorate drops.

Tim Kramer said...

www.firerick snyder. org

Anonymous said...

Snyder won because, he sold out gateway to the Asian's and cashed in his $14m dollar stock options and had more money than Bernero to spend on the campaign - he has only ever scmoozed with the already well to do - rubbing elbows with Detroit's affluent at the DAC - he sold out Michigan's workforce ust like he sold out gateway - to the highest bidder.

Smooth Jazz said...

"So the percentage of Republicans dropped from 37% to 28% in a couple of months?"

Well Duh, What you expect from DailyKOS/PPP?? They're on a roll lately. Anything and anybody Repub is sinking while Dems everywhere are blowing everybody away. Yeah Right!!!

It is obvious now that the election is over, they are "fudging" their samples to get outcomes desirables to their benefactors. They know the next election is 1.5 years away, so they can spin anything they want since they know they will not be called to account via other, more credible & balanced polls. Their polls on Gov Palin are particularly hokey & rigged.

Nice jobs guys; Keep up the good work. The KOS kids are in heaven.

DarkHorseSki said...

I recall Engler having the same issue and he was re-elected multiple times because he got results. Rick will do the same. He was elected to do what he is doing. The same people who don't like it are the same people who don't like the idea of cutting the federal entitlements despite all the facts proving that will be absolutely necessary. When Michigan is BOOMING in a few years he will be re-elected by an even larger margin than he was elected by this time, and that will be in great part because he has been so honest and has done what he said he would do and it will work.

Seth9 said...

Please explain to me how on Earth you found that 49% voted for Snyder and 43% voted for Bernero? Snyder won the election 58%-40%. And 15% of Bernero voters think Snyder is too liberal?!

Monica said...

For Michigan voters to be at 38% for recalling the Governor, that it self is understated by this poll. First, Michigan has NEVER RECALLED a elected official, ever. For 38% of the voting public considering the possibly in their mind, says something is not quite right in the water surrounding Michigan.

Next worrying (or it should be) number for Snyder is the Independents....seriously. Your research state that 32% Independents approve of Snyder's Governing style. This is not the union hotbed of Southeastern Michigan which is majority Democratic. Instead this is other areas...known as purple country like the Central and Upper Regions of the state.

As soon as these voters that might not YET be ready to recall Snyder, are informed with the reasons why this man is dangerous to our state....expect for the 38% number for the recall, will jump between 10 to 12 points....and that is 'this close' to a majority.

Governor Snyder would be wise to listen to Michigan voters and not corporate donors, at this point. If not, he could easily see himself out of office come this time, next year.

Learn about the recall process in Michigan here:


AG said...

Shame you didn't poll on support for a constitutional amendment repealing Snyder's Emergency Financial Manager bill, or support for repealing the ban on progressive taxation.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Please explain to me how on Earth you found that 49% voted for Snyder and 43% voted for Bernero?"

Because Republicans actually outnumbered Democrats in the November election, but now Republicans, at 28%, are even less numerous than independents (31%), and far less than Democrats (41%). The story of the shift from 2004 to 2006 to 2008 to 2010 to now is all a matter of turnout (and independents shifting in the wind--they're returning to Democrats' side now as well).

Seth9 said...

"Because Republicans actually outnumbered Democrats in the November election, but now Republicans, at 28%, are even less numerous than independents (31%), and far less than Democrats (41%)."

Alright, then please explain how you guys managed to find that Michigan's ideological identification is now 28% liberal, as opposed to the levels of slightly less than 20% in previous surveys. Ideological ID is, to my understanding, generally more stable than party ID and you show a clear reduction in both the proportions of conservatives and moderates and a clear uptick in the proportion of liberals in the state.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Alright, then please explain how you guys managed to find that Michigan's ideological identification is now 28% liberal, as opposed to the levels of slightly less than 20% in previous surveys."

1.) We haven't shown a reduction in conservatives in MI or really anywhere else. It was 38% in December and 37% now.

2.) As I've said in other comment sections, we recently switched to breaking ideology down by "very" and "somewhat" distinctions, whereas we always used to just ask lib/mod/con--3 options. Now there are five, and we've noticed that everywhere a lot of former moderates who didn't want to attach the dirty "liberal" label to themselves are now at least willing to admit they're somewhat liberal. That's brought liberals up and moderates down pretty much everywhere. In some cases, we've also seen some former moderates go "somewhat conservative," actually bringing conservatives up a little.

3.) Obviously if the proportion of Democrats surges, liberals are going to be more numerous.

Pretty simple.

Anonymous said...

I've got two words to describe people who want to recall Snyder....SORE LOSERS!! I think that John Engler was at the same approval rating in the early part of his first year, and he ended up getting re-elected TWICE! Rick Snyder hasn't even been governor a year, and people already want to recall him because they don't ...agree with him? I've got news for them....he was ELECTED by the people of Michigan. If you don't believe he's doing a good job, vote him out in the next election! I didn't vote for Granholm, Whitmer, or Obama, but I don't remember anyone screaming for THEM to be recalled.

Anonymous said...

2 years is too long, He's had 2 full months and look what he did.
-cut higher education by 22%
-began to tax retiree's pensions
-gave corporations 1.8 million in cuts while
-raising taxes for Elderly and Working poor.

For someone to have campaigned on bringing jobs, it looks like he is, for his Corporate buddies, not the Michigan Middle Class.

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