Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Perry leads nationally

In PPP's first national poll since Rick Perry's official entry into the Presidential race he's jumped out to a double digit advantage. Perry's at 33% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Michele Bachmann, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 6% for Herman Cain and Ron Paul, 4% for Rick Santorum, and 3% for Jon Huntsman.

Conservative voters have been looking for a candidate that they can rally around and Perry's filling that role. Romney continues to lead with the small portion of voters describing themselves as moderates at 27% to 20% for Bachmann and 15% for Perry. But Perry gets stronger and stronger as you move across the ideological spectrum. With 'somewhat conservative' voters Perry leads by 15 points with 38% to Romney's 23% and Bachmann's 11%. And with 'very conservative' voters the advantage expands to 22 points with him at 40% to 18% for Bachmann and 14% for Romney.

Perry was at only 12% five weeks ago, so he's climbed 21 points since entering the race. The biggest losers with his entry have been Bachmann and Cain, who've each lost 5 points of support, and Paul, who's lost 3 points of support. Romney and Huntsman are both unchanged from a month ago while Gingrich has actually gained a point of support.

There's some thought that this may eventually come down to a 2 or 3 person race and Perry would be favored in both of those instances as well. In a 3 way Perry would get 41% to 29% for Romney and 19% for Bachmann. There was some thought that Perry's entry would actually help Romney because it would lead to a split in the conservative vote between Perry and Bachmann but Perry is now winning those voters by such a wide margin that it doesn't even matter.

Perry also leads head to heads with both Romney (52-36) and Bachmann (56-26). In the match up with Romney Perry picks up Bachmann supporters (47-37), Cain supporters (61-29), Paul supporters (43-28), and Santorum supporters (68-21). Romney gets Gingrich supporters (51-35) and Huntsman supporters (76-24).

In the match up with Bachmann Perry wins Cain supporters (49-38), Gingrich supporters (52-32), Paul supporters (44-28), and Romney supporters (53-20). Huntsman supporters (24-21 for Bachmann) and Santorum supporters (44-43 for Perry) split pretty evenly.

In the event of the race coming down to Bachmann and Romney, Romney would lead 49-40. Somewhat surprisingly he narrowly wins Perry voters (48-42). He also gets Huntsman backers (88-6) and Gingrich ones (59-29). Paul voters split evenly at 42 while Cain voters (64-29) and Santorum voters (65-27) go to Bachmann.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Something tells me that moderates are overvaluing Perry at the moment. I have a feeling he'll start to crumble the more he talks about his wingnut views.

Mel said...

Is PPP is deliberately trying to sink Ron Paul?

Just asking. Why are your numbers so different than Gallup every time.

Anonymous said...

Obama's 2nd term, here we come!

Anonymous said...

romney was such a weak front-runner that i know when perry get in, it would be over for romney.

micah said...

How does Romney survive Romneycare in a GOP primary with the Supreme court likely to be hearing arguments on it next year? GOP voters are now starting to tune in. The 2012 GOP electorate has moved further right than it was in 2008 when they settled on McCain because of his military record. Bachmann, Cain, Santorum would mostly likely drop out resulting in a two-person race between Perry and Romney down the stretch. Palin has never really liked Romney, which makes her endorsement of Perry more likely.

This time the conservative candidate will win the GOP primary race because of the strong Tea Party influence.

micah said...

Anonymous 1:39 PM

The problem with your analysis is that the GOP base doesn't care much for moderates, nor do moderates have much of an influence in deciding who wins in a GOP primary race. The GOP base has moved to the far right since the 2008 when 'moderate' McCain lost to Obama.

Anonymous said...

Funny, but no one i know or talk to, people whom are totally opposite of my personal political opinion, all want Ron Paul.
Not one person has mentioned the other canidates except in a neg
The hype is just that HYPE
Don't even look at the polls
They are lies!
They are trying to convince us that we only have the canidates they approve
We the PEOPLE, want Ron Paul and he better be on the ballot in 2012

I Am Iron Man said...

As an Obama supporter I just said "holy balls! this is awesome!" ... Perry is a terrible general election candidate. Romney is the only Republican who can beat Obama (well Huntsman could too but he has no chance of winning the nomination) so having Perry so easily beating Romney so quickly is great news for Obama.

It seems to me that most of Bachmann's support will go to Perry too (which she inevitably drops out...)

The only thing that might save Romney at this point is Palin entering the race and taking some of Perry's crazy vote.

But it seems clear that the crazy vote makes up just too much of the GOP electorate for any reasonable nominee to make it through...

NRH said...

"Nobody I know wants anybody but Ron Paul!"

It's called selection bias. Nobody but Paultards is willing to hang around with other Paultards, so the only people they talk to all agree.

Anonymous said...

Really? You folks at "Public Policy Polling" (PPP) are actually publishing these blatantly slanted results this early in the campaign? REALLY?

You just lost ALL credibility as pollsters! (big loss...)

Hooray! If any of the current slate of Republican buffoons (excepting Ron Paul) runs against Obama, we can all look forward to Obama's next regime:
More "Wars for Wall Street Barons!"
More "Corrupt currency handouts for the top 1%!"
More "Cameras and privacy invasions to track our every move!"
More "Secret Federal prisons to keep dissenters in check!"

I keep hearing that country song in my head... "I'm proud to be an American, where at least I know I'm free..."

Anonymous said...

Give me a friggin break! Rick Perry is the epitome of an establishment candidate! If anyone were to continue these distructive policies we've had to endure for the last few decades, it's Rick "Gardasil" "NAFTA" "New World Order" "Bilderberg Group" Perry! He's TOTALLY going to simply continue right where all these establishment/corporatist presidents left off, as if they never skipped a beat! However, I bet a million bucks he's going to be even worse! If you know anything about history repeating itself, you'd better be voting Ron Paul 2012!

678 Media Group said...

PPP .. it's time you ban these Spamming Paultards. They are like cockroaches ... once there is an article about Ron Paul/an article they find should include Ron Paul they pop up. These Paultards have even infested Huffington Post.

Anonymous said...

Rick Perry is not leading in the polls. Besides, come the general election, they will bring up the fact that many young girls in Texas were KILLED from his MANDATORY HPV vaccinations. It’s illegal to mandate vaccinations, even if you’re Governor of a backwards state that will let you get away with it. Not to mention he owned a quarter of the company, which made the vaccines. Rick Perry is a scumbag. ONLY MORONS WILL VOTE FOR RICK PERRY. Rick Perry is leading the bottom of the barrel. Rick Perry is not a candidate that can beat Obama, and this year, that should be fairly easy to do.

princeliberty said...

Remember PPP is a democrat polling company.

So their agenda is to help the person who Obama could have the best chance of defeating.

They know that's Perry and that Obama would be dead in the water against Paul.

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