Wednesday, August 17, 2011

This week's poll choices

We're due up for our national poll this week, which I'm pretty excited about given all the recent changes in the GOP race. We're also going to do one individual state poll. Here are the choices:

-Connecticut. With a lot of ground to defend next year this is definitely one Senate seat Democrats could live with not having to worry about- would a Chris Shays candidacy put it in play for the GOP?

-Kentucky. It's now less than three months until the general election for Governor there and we haven't polled the race a single time this year. In addition to that I'm very interested to see how Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell's approval numbers are holding up.

-Iowa. Obviously it'll be interesting to see what the Republican numbers look like in a post-Pawlenty exit, post-Perry entrance landscape. And beyond that the general election numbers in this difficult period for Barack Obama would be interesting to see as well.

-South Carolina. Seeing the numbers post-Perry entrance is the most interesting thing here as well and one reason you could argue for polling South Carolina over Iowa is that there will probably be a lot of Iowa polls in the next few weeks but we seem to be about the only company looking at SC with any sort of regularity.

-West Virginia. The general election for this Gubernatorial race is now less than two months away and it's probably going to be closer than the one in Kentucky. Also good to get the regular refresh on how Joe Manchin is holding up.

Voting will be open until 5 PM today.


Anonymous said...

IA and SC will be polled by many companies in the next months, including PPP.

Connecticut will be polled by Quinnipiac.

PPP will poll West Virginia before the election.

The only state that makes sense right now is Kentucky, which hasn't been polled since last November. There are also no presidential numbers out so far.

Anonymous said...

We must poll South Carolina. This is a critical state for the GOP primary. Kentucky is fine as seconds because of the gubernatorial contest there right now.

Anonymous said...

Please vote WV, for rest of the options we have a rough idea of where those contests stand. If you do poll Kentucky, will you poll the competitive down the ballot races (Secretary of state, Auditor, Agricultural Commissioner).

wt said...

Iowa is the only swing state of the bunch, and we should probably find out where Bachmann and Perry stand now that Pawlenty is out, and Perry is in.

Also, I'd like to see some numbers on Ames. Does it matter to people, have they heard about the winner, does it affect their opinion of the candidates, etc. There's an opportunity for several relevant polls here.

Statistikhengst said...

Iowa and South Carolina. If Obama is still in single digits in SC, then this is good news. I bet anything he is FAR ahead of Perry in IA.

jpmassar said...

California needs polling!

The Interesting Times said...

I voted for West Virginia, which hasn't been polled since Huckabee was winning the state. Kentucky would be a good state to poll for the same reason.

South Carolina is also a good choice, since historically it's actually been a better indicator of the GOP's final nominee than any other state (with a track record of 83% accuracy since the Republicans adopted its modern nomination method in 1976, versus Iowa's 50% accuracy in that same time period).

Anything but Iowa, which has already been polled a zillion times, and will only tell us what we already knew anyway (namely, Iowa loves Bachmann).

Anonymous said...

I voted for West Virginia. In addition to Governor, I'd like to see West Virginia polling on a marriage amendment (as in your other state polls).

West Virginia does not currently have a marriage amendment and polling there may provide some context to various NC polling on the same topic.

Anonymous said...

I vote for IA, but with at least some focus on IA state issues, not just the caucuses. In particular:

- Gov. Branstad approval rating - There have been some polls showing that his popularity has been dropping following his solid win in 2010. Also, he has displeased some of the social conservatives in the GOP base, so it will be interesting to see where that support level stands.

- State legislative voter preferences in 2012 - In 2010, the GOP trounced the Dems, taking the IA House and coming within a couple of seats of taking the IA Senate. The Senate is the last bastion of the Dems, who prior to 2010 held the entire state government.

- Judicial retention - One IA Supreme Court Justice is up for retention in 2012 and the social conservatives have declared that they intend to continue their effort to use the ballot to punish all the justices who recognized gay marriage. In the 2010 GOP wave election, 3 justices were removed by a 54-46% vote, so it will be interesting to see where IA voters stand on this. The issue goes far beyond the marriage question and concerns the independence of state judiciaries.

If you decide to do KY, I would ask some questions about voter attitudes toward Mitch McConnell's use of earmarks, his stance on increasing taxation on the wealthy, and his approach to the debt ceiling "crisis".

Pat H said...

I support West Virginia. The governor's race is in less then two months (in october), and that is important.

Anonymous said...

For the "miscellaneous" section of the poll, regardless of which state you choose: It would be fun, interesting and original to include a short Financial Crisis 101 quiz. People are wondering why there are protests and riots from Greece to Ireland to India to Tunisia, while in the US there is little more than complacency and the occasional jibe from Jay Leno. I suspect it is because the public is abjectly ignorant about even the basic facts and concepts relating to the financial crisis. A few possible questions:

Who is Timothy Geithner?

Have you heard of the Federal Reserve discount window?

What does TARP stand for?

Are you familiar with the recent financial reform legislation referred to as the "Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act"?

True or false: As part of the bailout of the financial industry, no taxpayer money was given to foreign banks.

Anonymous said...

Please poll WV. I live there & am very curious about the special election for Governor, especially since the airing of the CNN documentary on strip mining (MTR). I'm wondering if that gave a bounce to the Mountain Party candidate.

Anonymous said...

Poll IA and WV. WV deserves to be polled too!

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