Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Where should we poll this week?

We were due for our national poll this week but there are so many places where it's worth doing a state poll that we're going to do a couple of those this week and hold off on the national poll. Here are your choices:

-Iowa. It would be worthwhile to have a 'real poll' in the field this weekend as a reality check on over interpretation of whatever happens in Ames. Plus we haven't polled Iowa since Rick Perry got in the picture and I think that has the potential to be a major game changer there. Also worth looking at Obama in the state- that's one it would be really nice for him not to have to worry about too much.

-Kentucky. The Governor's race seems to pretty much be in Democratic hands but we haven't taken a look at it since last October and it never hurts to have an extra set of eyes, especially on a race that's actually occurring this year. I'm also quite eager to take our first look at Rand Paul's approval numbers, and to see where Mitch McConnell is standing these days.

-Ohio. It's been almost three months now since we last polled the state and Ohio is definitely one that deserves to be polled at least quarterly. It's not a state Obama needs to win but it's one that if he does win pretty much puts the election away. So it would be good to get a look at where he is post-debt deal. Senate race is worth a look too and you can expect some Jim Tressel polling along the lines of what we put out on Butch Davis today if the state wins as well.

-South Carolina. I'm just going to lay it out there- based on what we released in Virginia last week and what we'll release in North Carolina later this week I think Perry is probably leading in South Carolina now. But that's why you do the polls is to actually know these things instead of making guesses about them. South Carolina gets a lot less polling than the other early states of Iowa and New Hampshire so definitely worth a look.

-West Virginia. In a year devoid of exciting statewide races the West Virginia Gubernatorial contest might be the most competitive one there's going to be. We haven't done anything there since before the primary and the election's in early October so it's time for a check up. And it's always good to keep an eye on Joe Manchin and see if he's still holding Shelley Moore Capito at bay in a hypothetical head to head.

-Wisconsin. Dems didn't get everything they wanted in this week's recall elections but there's a bigger prize ahead and that's Scott Walker. Worth taking a fresh look at how voters feel about removing him from office as well as what voters statewide thought about the outcome of this week's races. We would certainly poll the Senate and Presidential races as well.

Voting's open until 5 PM this afternoon, please don't rig it!


The Interesting Times said...

I would wait a bit on a Wisconsin poll. People will need time to hear about and process the results of tonight's election.

Anonymous said...

Will y'all be polling WI SD-12 for Kos this weekend?

Anonymous said...

I doubt WI still wants a recall, Democrats are demoralized after losing the state senate today and people probably want to move on.

Anonymous said...


Good job on the recall races in Wisconsin. You got only one race wrong, but well within the MoE.

As for the poll:

I`d like to see South Carolina and Kentucky polled.

I think you will poll WV anyway before the general election.

IA will be polled a lot in November/December.

And OH and WI will be polled a lot next year.

Anonymous said...

Oh man you need to poll Feingold v. Walker for Wisconsin Governor!

Don't forget gay marriage too! :3

Mad Joy said...

I really want to see Iowa, Wisconsin, AND Ohio this week! Oh well - guess I'll just have to wait a week for at least one of them :)

Anonymous said...

wherever you poll please put gary johnson as an option. best candidate IMO

Anonymous said...

IA, KY. Iowa hasn't had solid polling in a month. KY for gov and Senate delegation approvals. (Does the Tea Party vs. GOP establishment contrast get any better than in KY?)

Don Surber said...

Joe ain't running against Shelley and vice versa.

Anonymous said...

Iowa! Or at least a state that has Iowa in its name.

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