Tracking Bev Perdue vs. Richard Moore

Here is the tracking graph for the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary race. In the last 3 months Lt. Governor Bev Perdue's numbers have been very consistent, but Richard Moore's have been somewhat volatile. It's most important to remember that a plurality in all these polls are undecided, so there is a lot of room for movement.


This graph is a combination of all polls on this race including PPP and Civitas polls.

Using just PPP data the race looks a bit more fluid.

Combining Polls March-May

Last month I discussed the idea of combining polls. That is, adding results from identical polls together in order to get larger sample sizes for the benefit of better crosstabs. So I tried it by combining the results of the last three months of the Democratic primary tracking polls. In the end we have a survey with 1699 respondents. Let’s look at some of the crosstabs…

Gender

Edwards leads Clinton among women and has a strong lead amongst men. In the Governor's race, not surprisingly Bev Perdue has a big lead among women, and also has a slight lead with men.


Race

Obama has a big lead in the black community, but not a majority. Bev Perdue has a 22 point lead among blacks—probably the reason she has a distinct lead over Richard Moore. She leads by only 4 points among whites.


Age

Hillary Clinton leads among younger voters, but the other age categories are roughly even with Edwards on top. Richard Moore leads among the youngest voters.

Region

Clinton does the best in the Charlotte area (704 area code) and Edwards is strongest in the west (828). Perdue has a distinct advantage in every region except the Triangle, where the two gubernatorial candidates are tied.


Update: When reading these charts be careful of the Base number. That represents the percentage over all three surveys, but it is only partially weighted. So it does not reflect the correct gender, race and age proportions.

Where did Thompson's support come from?

First, it is important to note that these survey results were taken before the Republican Presidential Debate on Thursday, so none of the debate’s impact (small as it may be) is reflected here.

My instant analysis is that there is a segment of Republican primary electorate, roughly a quarter to a third of the likely primary voters in North Carolina, which is unhappy with the top three candidates (Giuliani, McCain and Romney). Thompson is filling in as their alternative candidate right now.

We had Newt Gingrich in the poll in January, February and March and he was placing a strong second then, similar to how Thompson performs this month. Gingrich was the alternative then, as Thompson is now. In the April tracking poll, without Thompson or Gingrich, you can see below that the “someone else” and undecided categories were extremely high.

As you can see most of Thompson’s support came from the “someone else” and undecided categories. McCain did lose 3% and Romney lost 1%, but Giuliani gained 2%.

Candidate ---- May ---- April Results

Giuliani ------ 32% ----- 30%
Thompson --- 25% ----- n/a
McCain ------ 16% ----- 19%
Romney ------ 13% ---- 14%
Someone else - 13% ---- 25%
Undecided ---- 3% ----- 13%

Fred Thompson makes a splash in NC primary poll

According to our latest survey prospective Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson would make a good showing in the North Carolina Republican primary. We included Thompson for the first time in our monthly primary tracking poll. Click here for complete results. Continue reading for the shorthand version:

Republican President

Giuliani 32%
Thompson 25%
McCain 16%
Romney 13%
Different candidate 13%

Democratic President

Edwards 33%
Clinton 27%
Obama 20%

I also found it interesting that now 48% of Democratic primary voters in North Carolina pick the War in Iraq as the most important issue. That’s up from 41% last month. More results:

Democratic Governor

Perdue 35%
Moore 29%

Republican Governor

Graham 21%
Orr 13%
Smith 9%

Democratic Lt. Governor

Dalton 10%
Smathers 10%
Besse 9%
Dellinger 9%

Bush approval at an all-time low

According to the latest Newsweek poll President Bush’s approval rating has fallen to 28%, the lowest score for a president since Jimmy Carter in 1979. That is the second poll I’ve seen lately with Bush’s approval under 30%. I’m really interested in seeing Bush approval in North Carolina right now. Has he fallen to an all-time North Carolina low too? We’ll have to wait for the Civitas poll and maybe PPP will do a similar poll this month too.

Wake County Schools: Bond in 2007?

In light of yesterday’s ruling by Superior Court Judge Howard Manning against mandatory year-round schools in Wake County I thought I would remind everyone of a poll we took back in January (PDF).

If Wake County cannot ease its school overcrowding problems with year-round schools the School Board and County Commissioners might be pressured to put another bond referendum on the ballot this year. Wake County approved a $970 million bond just last year.

In January we asked Wake County voters if they would be willing to vote for another billion dollar school bond in 2007. The results show that such a bond would fail miserably, 26%-68%. Of course, that was less than 3 months after the last bond referendum, and in response to Judge Manning’s decision the school crisis might make people more willing to support another bond this.

The conclusion from our January poll was that voters wanted to wait until at least 2008 for another bond.

Rudy Giuliani won?

According to a Survey USA poll of California voters last night only 13% of respondents watched the Republican Presidential debate. Among those respondents 30% thought Rudy Giuliani won the debate. The next closest candidate was Mitt Romney with 12%. This survey was not just of Republicans but all California voters who watched the debate.

We finished the our latest primary tracking polls yesterday, but before the Republican debate began. So our Republican poll numbers will not reflect any changes caused by the debate. But if only 13% of Californians watched, then I doubt the debate will have much impact on North Carolina Republican voters.

Check back to see the results on Monday.

Dorothea Dix Park

In late March, PPP conducted a poll for the Friends of Dorothea Dix Park. The results were released today. Here is the press release:

North Carolinians Support a Destination Park on Dix Campus
05-03-2007

RALEIGH, N.C. – Friends of Dorothea Dix Park announced today that a statewide poll conducted on March 20, 2007 by Public Policy Polling revealed that nearly 60 percent of all North Carolinians polled support a world-class, 306-acre destination park created on the Dorothea Dix campus when the hospital closes.

“This poll reveals exactly what we have been hearing from people all across the state,” said Jay Spain, president of Friends of Dorothea Dix Park. “The majority of North Carolinians want all of the 306 acres on Dix property used for a world-class destination park.”

In a second question, North Carolina respondents were given three choices: preserve all the land for a park, or development and a smaller park; or all development. Fifty-two percent said all park; 26 percent said a smaller park and development, 8 percent said all development, and 14 percent said they don’t know.

These results were similar regardless of gender, race or political affiliation. Other details from the poll include:

• Two polls were conducted on March 20, 2007:

• A statewide poll of 412 registered North Carolina voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.8

• A poll of 410 Wake County registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.9

• In Wake County, the results were even stronger. Sixty-five percent of Wake County voters polled said that they support a world-class, 306-acre destination park for the Dorothea Dix campus.

• In response to the three choices of how to use the land, 57 percent of Wake County respondents said all park; 26 percent said a smaller park and development, 7 percent said all development, and 9 percent said they don’t know.

“The success and constant demand we’ve seen from the DIX306 yard sign campaign mirror these poll results,” said Bill Padgett, member of DIX306. “We would like to add our voices to the voices of the children of tomorrow and thank our fellow North Carolinians from the mountains to the shore for their support of creating this world-class destination park.

The North Carolina General Assembly will ultimately decide the fate of the 306 acres.

Friends of Dorothea Dix Park (FDDP), founded in 2004, is a 501(c)3 organization made up of thousands of individuals and more than 30 member organizations whose mission is to preserve the Dorothea Dix Campus as a world-class destination park. FDDP is dedicated to educating people across North Carolina about the value of preserving the land as a destination park and why it is the right thing to do for our children, our economic stability and our overall quality of life. For more information about FDDP, its people, plans and vision, please visit www.dixpark.org.

Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton and North Carolina

In my last post I hinted at the fact that Hillary Clinton’s polling guru, Mark Penn, liked being in the limelight. I should have noticed the Washington Post profile of Penn printed just the day before!

It’s a pretty fascinating look at a major polling luminary and the Clinton presidential campaign. The profile has created a lot of buzz in Democratic blogging circles here, here, here, here, and here, as well as on pollster.com.

What does this have to do with North Carolina? Not much, except for this quote from Penn describing Hillary Clinton’s prospects in 2008:

"When you look at this thing nationally -- how is she going to win -- I think it's really important to look at what were the two groups that defected from the Democrats in 2004 to give it to Bush," Penn said. "And those were women and Latino voters. And almost all the change in that election from 2000 was among those two groups, and those are her two strongest groups. And I think that's some of the reason you see her doing so well in places like Ohio and Florida -- because I think those are both states that she could take."

And then, he said, "you won't have to go any further on the map.”

As a Democrat in North Carolina that quote disturbs me. Does this mean that Hillary Clinton is going to campaign in only the states John Kerry won, plus Ohio and Florida? That might get her into the White House, but it would do nothing to help Democrats in North Carolina. No wonder lots of Democrats are worried about our 2008 chances if she is the Democratic nominee.

The political winds still seem to be blowing against the Republicans. Democrats are hopeful for 2008 gains. No help from the national nominee might erase those chances.

Pollster Profile: Jan van Lohuizen

Dr. Jan van Lohuizen conducted polling for Senator Elizabeth Dole earlier this year. You may remember our discussion of her approval numbers.

Van Lohuizen is best known as President Bush’s personal pollster. He is based in Houston, Texas and has worked with Bush and Karl Rove since 1991. Van Lohuizen’s polling company, Voter Consumer Research, has worked for numerous Republicans and major corporations such as Wal-Mart, Qwest, Anheuser-Busch, and Microsoft. Van Lohuizen is currently working for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign.

This entry is going to be pretty short because Van Lohuizen is also known for being very low profile. He doesn’t do many interviews, nor does he seek out the limelight like other presidential pollsters. But here is a good article from the Washington Monthly that provides some insight into Van Lohuizen and Bush’s relationship.