Tuesday, May 8, 2007

Combining Polls March-May

Last month I discussed the idea of combining polls. That is, adding results from identical polls together in order to get larger sample sizes for the benefit of better crosstabs. So I tried it by combining the results of the last three months of the Democratic primary tracking polls. In the end we have a survey with 1699 respondents. Let’s look at some of the crosstabs…


Edwards leads Clinton among women and has a strong lead amongst men. In the Governor's race, not surprisingly Bev Perdue has a big lead among women, and also has a slight lead with men.


Obama has a big lead in the black community, but not a majority. Bev Perdue has a 22 point lead among blacks—probably the reason she has a distinct lead over Richard Moore. She leads by only 4 points among whites.


Hillary Clinton leads among younger voters, but the other age categories are roughly even with Edwards on top. Richard Moore leads among the youngest voters.


Clinton does the best in the Charlotte area (704 area code) and Edwards is strongest in the west (828). Perdue has a distinct advantage in every region except the Triangle, where the two gubernatorial candidates are tied.

Update: When reading these charts be careful of the Base number. That represents the percentage over all three surveys, but it is only partially weighted. So it does not reflect the correct gender, race and age proportions.

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