Monday, May 7, 2007

Where did Thompson's support come from?

First, it is important to note that these survey results were taken before the Republican Presidential Debate on Thursday, so none of the debate’s impact (small as it may be) is reflected here.

My instant analysis is that there is a segment of Republican primary electorate, roughly a quarter to a third of the likely primary voters in North Carolina, which is unhappy with the top three candidates (Giuliani, McCain and Romney). Thompson is filling in as their alternative candidate right now.

We had Newt Gingrich in the poll in January, February and March and he was placing a strong second then, similar to how Thompson performs this month. Gingrich was the alternative then, as Thompson is now. In the April tracking poll, without Thompson or Gingrich, you can see below that the “someone else” and undecided categories were extremely high.

As you can see most of Thompson’s support came from the “someone else” and undecided categories. McCain did lose 3% and Romney lost 1%, but Giuliani gained 2%.

Candidate ---- May ---- April Results

Giuliani ------ 32% ----- 30%
Thompson --- 25% ----- n/a
McCain ------ 16% ----- 19%
Romney ------ 13% ---- 14%
Someone else - 13% ---- 25%
Undecided ---- 3% ----- 13%

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