Sometimes it seems like Richard Moore and Bev Perdue are so consumed with blasting each other that they're not focused on the big picture- actually taking the Governor's office by defeating a Republican in the fall.
If the GOP nominates Fred Smith that's fine. Dennis Kucinich could be at the top of the Democratic ticket and I still think Moore or Perdue would beat him by double digits.
But if they nominate Pat McCrory it's a whole other story. His message is actually pretty strong: the Democrats in Raleigh have been aware of issues like gangs, DOT spending that's not fair to the city's urban areas, etc. for years and haven't done anything about it. Someone needs to come in from outside of the state government culture and fix things up.
Doubtless Moore or Perdue will roll out plans to address the issues McCrory is trying to make hay with. But his response will be to ask why they haven't accomplished what they say they want to during the many years each of them has already been in Raleigh.
I think the Democratic contenders need to nip that in the bud. It's completely over shadowed by the campaign season, but the legislature will be in session in a couple months. It's a great opportunity for Moore and Perdue to work with their allies in the legislature to get bills passed addressing some of the things McCrory is accusing the Democratic power structure of failing to get done over the last few years. Don't just roll out a proposal as part of your campaign- work to see some of these things enacted before the fall.
That way when McCrory starts railing about things Raleigh hasn't accomplished in debates this fall, Moore or Perdue can point to what they have done on the issues and not just what they will do. If McCrory doesn't have that card to play, he doesn't have much left since the slate is pretty blank when it comes to his statewide accomplishments.
Moore and Perdue should use the relationships they've built in statewide office and the bully pulpit they have to nip a big part of McCrory's campaign in the bud sooner than later.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Independents and the Republican contest for Governor
Several North Carolina media folks commented this weekend that Pat McCrory could be hurt by the Democratic primary for President mattering in the state. The theory is that more unaffiliated voters who might be inclined toward the moderate McCrory will vote insead in the Democratic primary.
Our numbers back that up to some extent. When we did the February Republican tracking poll before it looked like the Democratic contest might come to the state 15% of respondents said they were unaffiliated. In the March poll, after a month of speculation and attention brought to the fact that our primary could count, the percentage of folks identifying themselves as unaffiliated in the GOP poll went down to 12%.
It is also true that McCrory does better among unaffiliated voters than he does with registered Republicans. In our March poll he led Fred Smith 27-24 with Republicans but had a lead twice as large, 23-17, with unaffiliateds.
Our February poll showed an even bigger difference. McCrory led by just two points, 24-22, among voters who identified themselves as Republicans. But his 27-12 advantage with unaffiliated voters doubled his overall lead in the poll to four points.
McCrory is still consistently leading Smith, Bill Graham, and Bob Orr with Republicans- but those unaffiliated voters give him a little extra cushion.
Our numbers back that up to some extent. When we did the February Republican tracking poll before it looked like the Democratic contest might come to the state 15% of respondents said they were unaffiliated. In the March poll, after a month of speculation and attention brought to the fact that our primary could count, the percentage of folks identifying themselves as unaffiliated in the GOP poll went down to 12%.
It is also true that McCrory does better among unaffiliated voters than he does with registered Republicans. In our March poll he led Fred Smith 27-24 with Republicans but had a lead twice as large, 23-17, with unaffiliateds.
Our February poll showed an even bigger difference. McCrory led by just two points, 24-22, among voters who identified themselves as Republicans. But his 27-12 advantage with unaffiliated voters doubled his overall lead in the poll to four points.
McCrory is still consistently leading Smith, Bill Graham, and Bob Orr with Republicans- but those unaffiliated voters give him a little extra cushion.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Congressional races
Last night Democrat Bill Foster won a special election to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert in Congress. It's a district that would never really have been thought winnable for Democrats.
I think it's pretty much a given that Larry Kissell has an even chance of knocking off Robin Hayes. But when Democrats take victories like this it's also an indication that in this political climate Daniel Johnson really could knock off Patrick McHenry if things swung the right way, and whoever emerges from the Democratic primary in the 5th District could have a shot at Virginia Foxx as well.
PPP showed back in December that McHenry was surprisingly vulnerable.
I think it's pretty much a given that Larry Kissell has an even chance of knocking off Robin Hayes. But when Democrats take victories like this it's also an indication that in this political climate Daniel Johnson really could knock off Patrick McHenry if things swung the right way, and whoever emerges from the Democratic primary in the 5th District could have a shot at Virginia Foxx as well.
PPP showed back in December that McHenry was surprisingly vulnerable.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Obama and white men
When we did our first Texas poll, we showed Barack Obama leading the white male vote by 21 points and the state tied. When we did our last one we showed Hillary Clinton leading with that group and with a six point lead overall. The contest ended with a four point Clinton victory and a split white male vote.
White women tend to support Hillary Clinton. Blacks voters support Barack Obama. That's made white men the swing demographic in this election. And it's a group Obama needs to do better with in North Carolina.
Our poll this week showed Clinton leading 54-38 with white men in the state. Last month she had a similar 48-31 advantage. For the most part Obama is not winning primaries where he has that big a deficit.
If black voters turn out in record numbers Obama might be able to win North Carolina without faring better with white men. But his top goal as he opens up a campaign in the state should be improving his status with that demopgraphic.
White women tend to support Hillary Clinton. Blacks voters support Barack Obama. That's made white men the swing demographic in this election. And it's a group Obama needs to do better with in North Carolina.
Our poll this week showed Clinton leading 54-38 with white men in the state. Last month she had a similar 48-31 advantage. For the most part Obama is not winning primaries where he has that big a deficit.
If black voters turn out in record numbers Obama might be able to win North Carolina without faring better with white men. But his top goal as he opens up a campaign in the state should be improving his status with that demopgraphic.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Survey USA: North Carolina General Election
John McCain 49
Hillary Clinton 41
John McCain 47
Barack Obama 45
SurveyUSA, somewhat remarkably, did Presidential general election polls for every state in the country last night.
Barack Obama does better than Hillary Clinton in North Carolina. The key areas where he does better than her mirror trends we've seen in our general election polling:
-He trails by 61 points among Republican voters, but she trails by 72 points. There's more room for cross over support.
-He leads by seven points with independents, she trails by 23. He does much better getting those all important votes in the middle.
But the poll also shows the main thing holding him back in the state:
-She leads by 61 points among Democrats, he leads by only 50. Some Democrats are holding back on him. I believe this is the same phenomenon that caused Ralph Campbell some trouble in his runs for state Auditor.
Still, a Democrat trailing by only two points for President in North Carolina is quite remarkable, and it would be one heck of a Democratic year right on down the ballot were that the case.
Hillary Clinton 41
John McCain 47
Barack Obama 45
SurveyUSA, somewhat remarkably, did Presidential general election polls for every state in the country last night.
Barack Obama does better than Hillary Clinton in North Carolina. The key areas where he does better than her mirror trends we've seen in our general election polling:
-He trails by 61 points among Republican voters, but she trails by 72 points. There's more room for cross over support.
-He leads by seven points with independents, she trails by 23. He does much better getting those all important votes in the middle.
But the poll also shows the main thing holding him back in the state:
-She leads by 61 points among Democrats, he leads by only 50. Some Democrats are holding back on him. I believe this is the same phenomenon that caused Ralph Campbell some trouble in his runs for state Auditor.
Still, a Democrat trailing by only two points for President in North Carolina is quite remarkable, and it would be one heck of a Democratic year right on down the ballot were that the case.
Presidential Impact on North Carolina
For now when PPP does its tracking poll, it only talks to folks who have a record of voting in primary elections.
We're likely to change that now since it appears our Presidential primary will have an impact on the Democratic contest for President.
That will bring out a lot of new voters, and the conventional wisdom is that the new folks are tending to support Barack Obama. What impact would that have on the Democratic races for Governor and Senate?
In the Governor's race it looks like it would benefit Bev Perdue over Richard Moore. She leads 55-21 among Obama supporters and by a smaller 51-29 margin with Clinton supporters. New voters coming out for Obama could help her.
In the Senate race Kay Hagan is doing better with Clinton supporters than she is with Obama supporters. She leads Jim Neal 27-9 with Clinton folks and 22-10 with people inclined to support Obama.
We're likely to change that now since it appears our Presidential primary will have an impact on the Democratic contest for President.
That will bring out a lot of new voters, and the conventional wisdom is that the new folks are tending to support Barack Obama. What impact would that have on the Democratic races for Governor and Senate?
In the Governor's race it looks like it would benefit Bev Perdue over Richard Moore. She leads 55-21 among Obama supporters and by a smaller 51-29 margin with Clinton supporters. New voters coming out for Obama could help her.
In the Senate race Kay Hagan is doing better with Clinton supporters than she is with Obama supporters. She leads Jim Neal 27-9 with Clinton folks and 22-10 with people inclined to support Obama.
Duke-UNC poll
PPP recently polled North Carolinians to find out who they pull for in the Duke-UNC basketball game.
The results:
UNC 40
Duke 24
Don't care 36
What was particularly fascinating about the results was their uniformity along racial, gender, and political party lines.
Almost every time PPP does a poll there are major differences in how people respond depending on whether they're male or female, white or black, Democrat or Republican.
That wasn't the case he though. Men prefer UNC by 16 points, women prefer the Tar Heels by 15. Democrats go for Carolina by 16 points, Republicans like them by 14. White folks and black folks want them to win by similar double digit margins as well.
In North Carolina basketball may be the one thing that truly allows us to transcend all of our differences.
Full results here.
The results:
UNC 40
Duke 24
Don't care 36
What was particularly fascinating about the results was their uniformity along racial, gender, and political party lines.
Almost every time PPP does a poll there are major differences in how people respond depending on whether they're male or female, white or black, Democrat or Republican.
That wasn't the case he though. Men prefer UNC by 16 points, women prefer the Tar Heels by 15. Democrats go for Carolina by 16 points, Republicans like them by 14. White folks and black folks want them to win by similar double digit margins as well.
In North Carolina basketball may be the one thing that truly allows us to transcend all of our differences.
Full results here.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Democratic Tracking Poll: the Other Stuff
US Senate:
Kay Hagan 23
Jim Neal 9
Marcus Williams 6
Duskin Lassiter 4
Howard Staley 3
This race has looked pretty much the same three months in a row now when we've polled it. The undecideds are static. As long as Hagan doesn't gain Neal is in pretty good shape because he's running a more active campaign which may start to see its fruits closer to the election. Hagan leads in every region of the state but is particularly buoyed by a 39% performance in her home base of the Triad.
Lieutenant Governor:
Pat Smathers 13
Walter Dalton 11
Hampton Dellinger 8
Dan Besse 7
This is the 14th time we've polled this race now and the percentage of undecideds still hasn't gone below 60%. Dellinger and Dalton are well funded but have been mostly sitting on their money so far. When they start spending it is when people will start to pay more attention and the race will start to see substantive movement. This is the second month in a row Smathers has held a slim lead.
Treasurer:
Janet Cowell 16
David Young 15
Michael Weisel 8
This race has seen the same story all three times we've polled it in 2008. Cowell up a point on Young with Weisel lagging behind. Young always does best in the Mountains where he's from and Cowell always does best in the Triangle where she lives. Same story as the Lieutenant Governor's race- all three candidates have money and when they start spending someone might break 20% in the poll.
Superintendent:
June Atkinson 37
Eddie Davis 14
Auditor:
Beth Wood 24
Fred Aikens 16
Insurance Commissioner:
Wayne Goodwin 19
David Smith 13
Labor Commissioner:
John Brooks 14
Mary Fant Donnan 11
Robin Anderson 9
Ty Richardson 7
Some folks wondered if the entry of Brooks, who previously served four terms in the office, would make him the presumptive front runner. His small lead is an indication though that he has little residual name recognition and that any of the candidates has a decent chance at winning the nomination.
Full results here
Kay Hagan 23
Jim Neal 9
Marcus Williams 6
Duskin Lassiter 4
Howard Staley 3
This race has looked pretty much the same three months in a row now when we've polled it. The undecideds are static. As long as Hagan doesn't gain Neal is in pretty good shape because he's running a more active campaign which may start to see its fruits closer to the election. Hagan leads in every region of the state but is particularly buoyed by a 39% performance in her home base of the Triad.
Lieutenant Governor:
Pat Smathers 13
Walter Dalton 11
Hampton Dellinger 8
Dan Besse 7
This is the 14th time we've polled this race now and the percentage of undecideds still hasn't gone below 60%. Dellinger and Dalton are well funded but have been mostly sitting on their money so far. When they start spending it is when people will start to pay more attention and the race will start to see substantive movement. This is the second month in a row Smathers has held a slim lead.
Treasurer:
Janet Cowell 16
David Young 15
Michael Weisel 8
This race has seen the same story all three times we've polled it in 2008. Cowell up a point on Young with Weisel lagging behind. Young always does best in the Mountains where he's from and Cowell always does best in the Triangle where she lives. Same story as the Lieutenant Governor's race- all three candidates have money and when they start spending someone might break 20% in the poll.
Superintendent:
June Atkinson 37
Eddie Davis 14
Auditor:
Beth Wood 24
Fred Aikens 16
Insurance Commissioner:
Wayne Goodwin 19
David Smith 13
Labor Commissioner:
John Brooks 14
Mary Fant Donnan 11
Robin Anderson 9
Ty Richardson 7
Some folks wondered if the entry of Brooks, who previously served four terms in the office, would make him the presumptive front runner. His small lead is an indication though that he has little residual name recognition and that any of the candidates has a decent chance at winning the nomination.
Full results here
Democratic Tracking Poll: Governor
Bev Perdue 52
Richard Moore 25
It may not quite be time to write the obituary on Moore's campaign but it will be soon if he doesn't get it turned around quick. 27 points is awfully hard to make up in two months.
There is no one factor to point to in explaining Perdue's meteoric gain- she has made strong gains in pretty much every demographic group. Her lead among registered Democrats has improved from 15 to 29. With independents she's gone from being down 3 to up 16. With women a 17 point lead is now 33 points. With men a 9 point advantage is now 20. With white votes a 7 point lead is up to 22. Her gain with black voters is small- a five point gain from a 37 point lead to a 42 point lead.
Moore probably got more bad news last night when Hillary Clinton pulled out a couple huge victories because if North Carolina sees the same increases in black and female turnout that its neighboring states did in their primaries that's likely to benefit Perdue as well.
Moore has very good people working for him who doubtless have some tricks up their sleeves, but the climb is starting to look more like getting up Mt. Everest than Mt. Mitchell.
Full results here
Richard Moore 25
It may not quite be time to write the obituary on Moore's campaign but it will be soon if he doesn't get it turned around quick. 27 points is awfully hard to make up in two months.
There is no one factor to point to in explaining Perdue's meteoric gain- she has made strong gains in pretty much every demographic group. Her lead among registered Democrats has improved from 15 to 29. With independents she's gone from being down 3 to up 16. With women a 17 point lead is now 33 points. With men a 9 point advantage is now 20. With white votes a 7 point lead is up to 22. Her gain with black voters is small- a five point gain from a 37 point lead to a 42 point lead.
Moore probably got more bad news last night when Hillary Clinton pulled out a couple huge victories because if North Carolina sees the same increases in black and female turnout that its neighboring states did in their primaries that's likely to benefit Perdue as well.
Moore has very good people working for him who doubtless have some tricks up their sleeves, but the climb is starting to look more like getting up Mt. Everest than Mt. Mitchell.
Full results here
Democratic Tracking Poll: President
Barack Obama 47
Hillary Clinton 43
Most recent polls in North Carolina had shown Obama with a double digit lead. But his standing in the national polls has declined over the last week and it looks like the same trend is occurring in North Carolina.
One interesting thing about North Carolina relative to other states is that Obama is doing almost equally well among men and women- he leads by five points with men and by four points with women.
The standard racial gap does apply though. Obama leads by 63 points with black voters while Clinton has a 23 point edge with white voters.
One thing's for absolute sure. The specter of a contested primary will bring out folks in record numbers to the polls in May. 75% of those surveyed said they were more likely to vote if North Carolina's primary played a role in who receives the Democratic nomination.
Full results here.
Hillary Clinton 43
Most recent polls in North Carolina had shown Obama with a double digit lead. But his standing in the national polls has declined over the last week and it looks like the same trend is occurring in North Carolina.
One interesting thing about North Carolina relative to other states is that Obama is doing almost equally well among men and women- he leads by five points with men and by four points with women.
The standard racial gap does apply though. Obama leads by 63 points with black voters while Clinton has a 23 point edge with white voters.
One thing's for absolute sure. The specter of a contested primary will bring out folks in record numbers to the polls in May. 75% of those surveyed said they were more likely to vote if North Carolina's primary played a role in who receives the Democratic nomination.
Full results here.
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