Very few things drive me much more crazy than the media picking up some far fetched narrative and beating it to death whether there's any evidence it's really true or not. That's what's happening with this whole 'Michigan State is playing for the whole state of Michigan' bunk this week.
If I had known it was going to be played up this much I would have run a poll on it last week to see just how important MSU winning the national championship is to average citizens of the state, and how much they thought a victory would enhance their lives in these troubled times for the whole state. I bet the answers are a) a majority of the state either doesn't care or hopes MSU loses because they're Michigan fans and b) for most of those who do care, beyond the folks who are hard core Sparties, it won't be on their mind much past Wednesday.
I'm not just saying this because I went to UNC, because I grew up in Michigan, and everyone I've heard from who still lives in the state I've heard from since Saturday night has said they're rooting for UNC because they hate MSU. Since the whole 'MSU is bearing the burden of Michigan's wounds' is completely made up and based on anecdotal evidence, I could just as easily push a story line that the UNC basketball team is bearing the burden of the suffering city of Ann Arbor because the hated MSU winning the national championship would just be more salt in the wound of a struggling city that just lost its daily newspaper and largest private employer. That would be a crock, but so is the narrative that is getting pushed.
As far as MSU playing for the city of Detroit itself, I remember seeing some data the Free Press published ten years ago showing that Democrats in the state were much more likely to be Michigan fans than Republicans, and since Detroit is overwhelmingly Democratic I kind of doubt residents of the city who have fallen on hard times are avidly pulling for the Spartans to bring them happiness.
I guess if the Detroit papers can't afford seven day delivery they can't afford to do any survey research to see if the story they're pushing has any actual basis in fact but I think it's a bunch of bunk to keep journalists amused when they know the national championship game may not be all that competitive.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Friday, April 3, 2009
Next Week...
We're in the field in Kentucky right now. Jim Bunning has had lots more drama since Kos polled the race in February so we were interested to see the state of it now. One thing I can tell you unequivocally based on the numbers I've seen so far- there's no doubt the GOP would be better off with Trey Grayson as its nominee and that's not because of what will happen to Bunning's numbers after the Democrats spend millions attacking him, that's because of how poor his numbers already are.
We're going in the field in North Carolina next week. I'm happy to entertain suggestions for who we should poll hypothetically against Richard Burr. We'll keep on testing make believe candidates until we have some real ones. We'll probably also take another look at Roy Cooper vs. Burr since we haven't done it since December. It would just be interesting to see if there are any new storylines within those numbers.
Any other ideas for NC poll questions are welcome as well.
I'm off to the Final Four after work today. I grew up in metro Detroit so the prospect of sleeping in my own bed to see the Tar Heels win the national championship is a pretty good one. When I was home in December I saw UNC crush MSU at Ford Field and then saw Michigan beat Dook in Ann Arbor three days later so I have good karma for basketball games I've gone to in the state so far this year...blogging may be light at the start of the week...Go Heels!
We're going in the field in North Carolina next week. I'm happy to entertain suggestions for who we should poll hypothetically against Richard Burr. We'll keep on testing make believe candidates until we have some real ones. We'll probably also take another look at Roy Cooper vs. Burr since we haven't done it since December. It would just be interesting to see if there are any new storylines within those numbers.
Any other ideas for NC poll questions are welcome as well.
I'm off to the Final Four after work today. I grew up in metro Detroit so the prospect of sleeping in my own bed to see the Tar Heels win the national championship is a pretty good one. When I was home in December I saw UNC crush MSU at Ford Field and then saw Michigan beat Dook in Ann Arbor three days later so I have good karma for basketball games I've gone to in the state so far this year...blogging may be light at the start of the week...Go Heels!
Independents could hurt McAuliffe
Some of the most powerful voters this year in the Democratic primary for Governor of Virginia might not be Democrats.
With no contest for Governor on the Republican side, it seems likely that a high percentage of independents who bother to vote in the primary will choose the Democratic ballot. Voters who don't identify with either party have accounted for 16% of the likely electorate in each of our last two polls.
That's bad news for Terry McAuliffe because he is not popular at this point with that swath of the electorate. He has had a net negative favorability rating with independents on each of our last two polls. The one this week showed 34% viewing him negatively and only 21% positively, and four weeks before that the numbers were 31% unfavorable and just 21% favorable.
Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran both have strong ratings among the independents who have formed an opinion of them.
McAuliffe is also in the basement when it comes to the horse race with that group. In the most recent poll Deeds led with 21% compared to 19% for Moran and 12% for McAuliffe. Prior to that it was Deeds with 20%, Moran with 18%, and McAuliffe with 11%.
In a race that appears close enough right now that anything could tip the scales, McAuliffe's lack of popularity with independents could be a liability for him come election day.
With no contest for Governor on the Republican side, it seems likely that a high percentage of independents who bother to vote in the primary will choose the Democratic ballot. Voters who don't identify with either party have accounted for 16% of the likely electorate in each of our last two polls.
That's bad news for Terry McAuliffe because he is not popular at this point with that swath of the electorate. He has had a net negative favorability rating with independents on each of our last two polls. The one this week showed 34% viewing him negatively and only 21% positively, and four weeks before that the numbers were 31% unfavorable and just 21% favorable.
Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran both have strong ratings among the independents who have formed an opinion of them.
McAuliffe is also in the basement when it comes to the horse race with that group. In the most recent poll Deeds led with 21% compared to 19% for Moran and 12% for McAuliffe. Prior to that it was Deeds with 20%, Moran with 18%, and McAuliffe with 11%.
In a race that appears close enough right now that anything could tip the scales, McAuliffe's lack of popularity with independents could be a liability for him come election day.
The importance of the Triangle to Obama's victory
How important is the Triangle to continued Democratic gains in federal elections in North Carolina?
It was the only media market made up mostly of North Carolina counties to vote for Barack Obama last fall.
Obama took the region 56-43, racking up a plurality of 186,000 votes.
His next best performances were in the Triad and greater Charlotte, each of which he lost 52-47. In the Triad his deficit was 43,000 votes and in Charlotte it was 66,000.
He lost 53-46 in Asheville, Greenville, and Wilmington. In Asheville it was a deficit of 22k votes, in Greenville 25, and in Wilmington 16k.
Add up those losses in all of the other state's media markets and it comes to 172k, allowing that 186k margin in the Triangle to make up for losing everywhere else.
There's not much doubt what region's growth is contributing the most to North Carolina's increased competitiveness in Presidential politics.
It was the only media market made up mostly of North Carolina counties to vote for Barack Obama last fall.
Obama took the region 56-43, racking up a plurality of 186,000 votes.
His next best performances were in the Triad and greater Charlotte, each of which he lost 52-47. In the Triad his deficit was 43,000 votes and in Charlotte it was 66,000.
He lost 53-46 in Asheville, Greenville, and Wilmington. In Asheville it was a deficit of 22k votes, in Greenville 25, and in Wilmington 16k.
Add up those losses in all of the other state's media markets and it comes to 172k, allowing that 186k margin in the Triangle to make up for losing everywhere else.
There's not much doubt what region's growth is contributing the most to North Carolina's increased competitiveness in Presidential politics.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
The Smoking Ban and Public Opinion
A couple interesting notes on today's smoking ban vote in the NC House:
-Although it was largely a party line vote with Democrats in favor and Republicans opposed, almost a quarter of the votes did not fit that trend with 18 Republicans voting in favor of the bill and 11 Democrats voting against it. That unusual level of non-party unity may be a reflection of the fact that public opinion about the smoking ban is actually not particularly polarized along party lines. When we polled it in February 68% of Democratic voters and 62% of Republicans expressed support for it, not a particularly large disparity. This was not an issue where GOP representatives needed to vote against it to keep the base happy.
-Most of the Democrats voting against the bill represent districts in the tobacco growing country of eastern North Carolina, but our survey actually found a level of support for the smoking ban in that region equal to the statewide support of the bill. 64% of North Carolinians overall expressed approval for the proposal and so did 64% in the east. The place where we found voters much less supportive than overall was the Triad where it earned just 52% favorability.
-Although it was largely a party line vote with Democrats in favor and Republicans opposed, almost a quarter of the votes did not fit that trend with 18 Republicans voting in favor of the bill and 11 Democrats voting against it. That unusual level of non-party unity may be a reflection of the fact that public opinion about the smoking ban is actually not particularly polarized along party lines. When we polled it in February 68% of Democratic voters and 62% of Republicans expressed support for it, not a particularly large disparity. This was not an issue where GOP representatives needed to vote against it to keep the base happy.
-Most of the Democrats voting against the bill represent districts in the tobacco growing country of eastern North Carolina, but our survey actually found a level of support for the smoking ban in that region equal to the statewide support of the bill. 64% of North Carolinians overall expressed approval for the proposal and so did 64% in the east. The place where we found voters much less supportive than overall was the Triad where it earned just 52% favorability.
VA: could high undecideds portend low turnout?
With only a little more than two months left to go until the Democratic primary for Governor in Virginia our latest poll found 45% of voters still undecided.
By comparison, two months before the Democratic primary for Governor in North Carolina last year only 19% had yet to make up their mind.
We're using a pretty tight likely voter screen for our Virginia polls, calling only those folks who voted in at least one Democratic primary between 2005 and 2008. Even still I wonder if a lot of those 45% undecided are going to end up staying at home.
People vote when they have a dog in the fight, and right now almost half of the likely primary electorate in Virginia does not. There just doesn't seem to be much voter interest in this election, and even though the campaigns will certainly intensify in the coming weeks, I would expect the primary to see pretty low turnout based on the high level of ambivalence we're finding in our polls.
By comparison, two months before the Democratic primary for Governor in North Carolina last year only 19% had yet to make up their mind.
We're using a pretty tight likely voter screen for our Virginia polls, calling only those folks who voted in at least one Democratic primary between 2005 and 2008. Even still I wonder if a lot of those 45% undecided are going to end up staying at home.
People vote when they have a dog in the fight, and right now almost half of the likely primary electorate in Virginia does not. There just doesn't seem to be much voter interest in this election, and even though the campaigns will certainly intensify in the coming weeks, I would expect the primary to see pretty low turnout based on the high level of ambivalence we're finding in our polls.
Going both ways on IVR
Republican pollster David Hill pointed out yesterday in The Hill that one of the findings of the AAPOR report on the polling in the early primaries last year was that there was no difference in accuracy between the surveys conducted by live operators and those done with IVR.
Most folks willing to take a dispassionate look at the actual track records of the two types of polls in terms of their accuracy at calling elections have already come to that conclusion, but Hill points out that it's particularly surprising to see AAPOR, many of the members of which have been quite critical of automated polling, grant that fact.
Some folks are apparently stuck in the 90s though. I guess Blanche Lincoln didn't like our poll results last week because in an interview with Politico, she 'dismissed the survey’s automated format of questioning likely voters.'
I think someone's giving Senator Lincoln bad advice because the much better way to spin the poll numbers, which weren't that bad for her, would have been to say that the poll showed no one has ever heard of any of the Republicans thinking about running and she's in solid position to be reelected.
Instead she decided to criticize us with a tired and increasingly obsolete line of attack. By doing so she essentially acknowledged the numbers were bad for her when there was plenty of positive data within the poll she could have used to emphasize instead.
My overall take on Lincoln is that most voters in that small state already know what they think of her one way or the other, and that while she's not as popular as a Mike Beebe or Mark Pryor, the balance of favorability is enough that she should get reelected with something in the 55% range she received in both 1998 or 2004 unless either Mike Huckabee runs or the Republicans end up not even trying.
Most folks willing to take a dispassionate look at the actual track records of the two types of polls in terms of their accuracy at calling elections have already come to that conclusion, but Hill points out that it's particularly surprising to see AAPOR, many of the members of which have been quite critical of automated polling, grant that fact.
Some folks are apparently stuck in the 90s though. I guess Blanche Lincoln didn't like our poll results last week because in an interview with Politico, she 'dismissed the survey’s automated format of questioning likely voters.'
I think someone's giving Senator Lincoln bad advice because the much better way to spin the poll numbers, which weren't that bad for her, would have been to say that the poll showed no one has ever heard of any of the Republicans thinking about running and she's in solid position to be reelected.
Instead she decided to criticize us with a tired and increasingly obsolete line of attack. By doing so she essentially acknowledged the numbers were bad for her when there was plenty of positive data within the poll she could have used to emphasize instead.
My overall take on Lincoln is that most voters in that small state already know what they think of her one way or the other, and that while she's not as popular as a Mike Beebe or Mark Pryor, the balance of favorability is enough that she should get reelected with something in the 55% range she received in both 1998 or 2004 unless either Mike Huckabee runs or the Republicans end up not even trying.
Weak ABC crowd in North Carolina
We've known for years that there are basketball fans across North Carolina who wear the 'ABC' label proudly- 'Anyone But Carolina.' This week, for what we believe to be the first time, Public Policy Polling has conducted a scientific statewide poll to figure out just how many of those folks there are and the answer is that it's not a very significant segment of the population. 13% of residents in the state say they are explicitly rooting against UNC to win the national championship this weekend in Detroit, while 67% say they hope the Tar Heels pull it through and 21% don't care.
That would seem to be an indication that while the more vociferously anti-Carolina supporters of Duke, State, Wake, and other programs in the state may make the most noise a decent segment of their fans are happy to jump on the bandwagon and root for UNC out of state pride. Of course this was just a poll of North Carolinians so we don't know what the Dook fans in Jersey think.
Support for the Tar Heels is pretty steady across race, gender, and regional lines throughout the state but there is actually a relatively strong division along party lines. 75% of Democrats but only 58% of Republicans say they're cheering for UNC. I guess conservative distrust of those liberals up at Chapel Hill may bleed over even to sports.
North Carolinians are also pretty confident that UNC will be bringing home the trophy next Tuesday. 61% think the Heels will win the national championship, while 14% think someone else will win and 25% aren't sure.
Full results here
That would seem to be an indication that while the more vociferously anti-Carolina supporters of Duke, State, Wake, and other programs in the state may make the most noise a decent segment of their fans are happy to jump on the bandwagon and root for UNC out of state pride. Of course this was just a poll of North Carolinians so we don't know what the Dook fans in Jersey think.
Support for the Tar Heels is pretty steady across race, gender, and regional lines throughout the state but there is actually a relatively strong division along party lines. 75% of Democrats but only 58% of Republicans say they're cheering for UNC. I guess conservative distrust of those liberals up at Chapel Hill may bleed over even to sports.
North Carolinians are also pretty confident that UNC will be bringing home the trophy next Tuesday. 61% think the Heels will win the national championship, while 14% think someone else will win and 25% aren't sure.
Full results here
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Top issues across party lines in NC
Not surprisingly it doesn't matter whether you're a Democrat, Republican, or independent in North Carolina- your top issue right now is the economy.
That's true for 60% of Democrats, 55% of independents, and 49% of Republicans in the state on our latest poll.
When it comes to the second or third biggest issues for individual voters though you find a fair amount of variety. For Democrats education is the second biggest thing at 13%, followed by health care at 8%. For Republicans moral and family values take the runner up slot at 23% with taxes in third at 9%. Independents split a traditionally progressive issue and a conservative one in the second and third spots- moral and family values are second while education is third.
It's interesting to note that even among GOP voters only 4% name immigration as their top concern. While our polling certainly still shows North Carolinians are pretty conservative when it comes to issues involving immigration, the intensity about those feelings does not appear to be what it was two years ago.
That's true for 60% of Democrats, 55% of independents, and 49% of Republicans in the state on our latest poll.
When it comes to the second or third biggest issues for individual voters though you find a fair amount of variety. For Democrats education is the second biggest thing at 13%, followed by health care at 8%. For Republicans moral and family values take the runner up slot at 23% with taxes in third at 9%. Independents split a traditionally progressive issue and a conservative one in the second and third spots- moral and family values are second while education is third.
It's interesting to note that even among GOP voters only 4% name immigration as their top concern. While our polling certainly still shows North Carolinians are pretty conservative when it comes to issues involving immigration, the intensity about those feelings does not appear to be what it was two years ago.
Moran/Deeds split could help McAuliffe
Our latest look at the Virginia Democratic contest for Governor yesterday found that there were more voters with a negative opinion of Terry McAuliffe than Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds combined.
The good news for McAuliffe? Those voters are very much divided in their support between his two opponents. 41% of respondents who view the former DNC head unfavorably support Moran and 31% support Deeds.
Because of that phenomenon it is entirely possible that McAuliffe could continue to be the most unpopular candidate with the primary electorate all the way through election day...and still win the Democratic nomination with 35-40% of the vote if the anti vote is split too evenly.
If that's the case it will be interesting to see if Democrats come together as well behind McAuliffe as Clinton supporters eventually did behind Barack Obama last fall, or if McAuliffe's unpopularity with a third of the Democratic electorate bleeds through to the general election, resulting in an easy victory for Bob McDonnell.
The good news for McAuliffe? Those voters are very much divided in their support between his two opponents. 41% of respondents who view the former DNC head unfavorably support Moran and 31% support Deeds.
Because of that phenomenon it is entirely possible that McAuliffe could continue to be the most unpopular candidate with the primary electorate all the way through election day...and still win the Democratic nomination with 35-40% of the vote if the anti vote is split too evenly.
If that's the case it will be interesting to see if Democrats come together as well behind McAuliffe as Clinton supporters eventually did behind Barack Obama last fall, or if McAuliffe's unpopularity with a third of the Democratic electorate bleeds through to the general election, resulting in an easy victory for Bob McDonnell.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
