Thursday, April 2, 2009

VA: could high undecideds portend low turnout?

With only a little more than two months left to go until the Democratic primary for Governor in Virginia our latest poll found 45% of voters still undecided.

By comparison, two months before the Democratic primary for Governor in North Carolina last year only 19% had yet to make up their mind.

We're using a pretty tight likely voter screen for our Virginia polls, calling only those folks who voted in at least one Democratic primary between 2005 and 2008. Even still I wonder if a lot of those 45% undecided are going to end up staying at home.

People vote when they have a dog in the fight, and right now almost half of the likely primary electorate in Virginia does not. There just doesn't seem to be much voter interest in this election, and even though the campaigns will certainly intensify in the coming weeks, I would expect the primary to see pretty low turnout based on the high level of ambivalence we're finding in our polls.

No comments:

Web Statistics