Charlotte Mayor Republican Primary

The recent Charlotte Observer poll asked a subset of their sample about the Republican mayoral primary. Among the 180 respondents (+/- 7.3% MofE) who are eligible to vote in the September 11 Republican primary, 70% support incumbent Pat McCrory. Only 17% support challenger Ken Gjertsen.

Pollster Profile: Hertzog Research

Durham County hired Hertzog Research in Carrboro to conduct its survey on upcoming bond and tax referenda. Hertzog Research is a fairly new establishment, started in 2003, but it already has an impressive client list of corporations, law firms, non-profits and government agencies. For example, GE, Intel, the Federal Transit Administration, the NEA, and UNC-Chapel Hill. Their website claims that they do candidate polling as well, but don’t list any political clients.

The company’s principal is Mark Hertzog. Before beginning his own company, Hertzog worked with TARP and FGI Research. Both companies have extensive experience in market research, costumer satisfaction surveys and more. Hertzog Research seems to have a similar focus.

Mark Hertzog is also the author of a book, The Lavender Vote: Lesbians, Gay Men, and Bisexuals in American Electoral Politics.

Charlotte views on growth; mostly good, some bad

The Charlotte Observer released more of their recent poll of Mecklenburg County residents. Today's results indicate that a majority think that rapid growth is a good thing. Meanwhile 33% think that growth has been harmful. 9% say both. I can't believe only 9% say both.

From Charlotte Observer

More on the Durham County survey

I got a copy of the Durham County survey presentation. Click here for the PDF. Here is how some of the questions shook out:

$195 million school bond
For 45.4%
Against 28.8%

$.25 sales tax increase
For 57.7%
Against 24.9%

.4% transfer tax
For 22.6%
Against 60.1%

[Paraphrase] Regardless of how you would vote on these proposals, if you HAD to choose between them which one would you choose: $.25 sales tax increase OR .4% transfer tax.
Sales tax 59.2%
Transfer tax 32%

The survey presentation does not give the exact question wording for most of the questions, but they do provide some information. The sales tax and transfer tax questions were preceded by information about estimated first-year revenue from each and the impact they would have on property taxes for a $200,000 house. That is a fairly good explanation of the situation. However, in the voting booth that information will not be available.

Also of note was the sampling. While the survey was taken of registered voters, they were first screened to see if they were likely to vote in the 2007 elections. If respondents were probably or definitely not voting, they were excluded. That’s not the most accurate way to determine a likely voter (many people will lie to say that they will vote) but it’s better than nothing.

Bad news for the transfer tax in Durham County

Durham County, one of a handful of counties prepared to put a transfer tax on the ballot this fall, just released the results of a poll conducted to gauge the opinion of Durham County voters on the transfer tax, sales tax, and other bond referenda. The news is not good for transfer tax proponents.

Only 23% of respondents favor a .4% land transfer tax. Meanwhile 58% are willing to vote for a quarter-cent increase in the sales tax. According to the state budget pass earlier this month a county can choose to have either the transfer tax or the sales tax increase, but not both, and only if it passes a county-wide referendum first.

Durham County also has a $195 million school bond on the ballot this fall. Support for the bond hovered around near 50% in the survey. 45% support the bond without a sales tax increase, and 51% support the bond with the sales tax increase.

The poll was conducted between August 10 and 20 by Hertzog Research. There were 365 respondents for a margin of error of +/- 5.1%.

This information comes from the News and Observer. I am currently attempting to get a complete copy of the results. You’ll get more information on this poll when I see more results.

*Something to think about…this poll was of all Durham County registered voters, not likely voters in an odd-year election. That is a much different electorate, but nevertheless the results don’t look good for the pro-transfer tax crowd.

Pollster Profile: Braun Research

Our latest pollster to profile is Braun Research, which recently conducted a poll of Charlotte area residents for the Charlotte Observer and WCNC. Braun Research was established in 1995 and is located in Princeton, NJ. It is a marketing and public opinion research firm that conducts traditional telephone surveys, as well as, internet and mail surveys and focus groups. Paul Braun is the company’s President.

Before this poll I had never heard of Braun Research and there was very little information about Braun Research to be found by googling or by searching newspaper records. Their website has no client list. The company must focus on marketing research and do little political polling which would get picked up in the newspapers or campaign finance reports.

If anyone knows anymore about Braun Research, please let me know!

NC vs the nation

Just for fun let's compare the trend lines for the Republican presidential race in North Carolina and nationwide side-by-side. The hometown factor for John Edwards renders similar comparisons for the Democrats meaningless.

North Carolina


Nation (from pollster.com)

I tried to match the colors for the candidates' trend lines. The beginning of the NC trend corresponds with the blue vertical line on the nationwide graph that signifies the beginning of 2007.

As you can see, Fred Thompson is doing much better in North Carolina than he is nationally. Also, Rudy Giuliani is dipping nationally and in North Carolina. Same goes for McCain, who is falling off the charts. Nationally, Romney has not quite reached McCain's level, but he has in NC.

Mecklenburg supports transit rax, barely

According to a Charlotte Observer/WCNC Poll 52% of Mecklenburg residents support keeping the county's half-cent sales tax for mass transit projects like buses and light rail. 45% oppose the tax. A vote on the tax, which was initially approved by referendum in 1998, is scheduled for the November ballot.

I don't have the complete crosstabs, but the article linked to above does a job explaining what groups favor or oppose the tax. Interestingly, Republicans support the tax at a higher rate than Democrats. Also, poorer residents said they were less likely to use the mass transit system, while the wealthiest residents were the most likely to ride. That's opposite the conventional wisdom on who would most benefit from mass transit.

We'll keep an eye on this referendum.

Trendlines

Below are four North Carolina primary tracking graphs that include all polls (not just PPP) and trendlines.

Democratic President


Republican President


Democratic Governor


Republican Governor*

*The Republican governor's race graph is slightly skewed at the end because we do not have any data from Civitas for August. Civitas' results have been significantly different than all other polls.

Summer doldrums

Apparently the term “summer doldrums” can refer a lot of things, but it might as well be talking about polling as well. I usually check to see if any new North Carolina polls are out there by googling [poll “north carolina”]. Most of what I get is national, New Hampshire or Iowa polls that mention “former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.” I also get a lot of college sports top 25 polls. But so far this week there has been no new public opinion polls in North Carolina. Raleigh city councilor Tommy Craven has been running a poll in his district. I know because my mom and others have answered it. We’ll wait and see if any of it is publicly released.

So in the meantime I’m just going to post the poll that is most on my mind right now:

AP Top 25

1. Southern California
2. LSU
3. West Virginia
4. Texas
5. Michigan
6. Florida
7. Wisconsin
8. Oklahoma
9. Virginia Tech
10. Louisville
11. Ohio State
12. California
13. Georgia
14. UCLA
15. Tennessee
16. Rutgers
17. Penn State
18. Auburn
19. Florida State
20. Nebraska
21. Arkansas
22. TCU
23. Hawaii
24. Boise State
25. Texas A&M