Thursday, August 23, 2007


Below are four North Carolina primary tracking graphs that include all polls (not just PPP) and trendlines.

Democratic President

Republican President

Democratic Governor

Republican Governor*

*The Republican governor's race graph is slightly skewed at the end because we do not have any data from Civitas for August. Civitas' results have been significantly different than all other polls.


Chris said...


Here's something to ponder...

Everyone knows (or at least I hope they do) that we use General Election voters for our sample which give a less accurate reflection of primary races.

Yet, the only race where there is any significant divergence between our polls is in the GOP Gov's race.

Is that race just drawing so little attention that only the GOP primary voters are aware?

I'm wondering what your thoughts are on that race to explain why our numbers are so different.


Justin Guillory said...


Part of it is your use of titles for the candidates. We just say the three names, while you say lawyer, businessman, etc.

That would have an impact in a race where hardly anyone has ever heard of any of the three candidates.

That is much less of a problem with the three other races.

Chris said...

Ah, good point.

Just shows you the negative connotation that goes with the title "trial lawyer."

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