Wednesday, August 29, 2007

More on the Durham County survey

I got a copy of the Durham County survey presentation. Click here for the PDF. Here is how some of the questions shook out:

$195 million school bond
For 45.4%
Against 28.8%

$.25 sales tax increase
For 57.7%
Against 24.9%

.4% transfer tax
For 22.6%
Against 60.1%

[Paraphrase] Regardless of how you would vote on these proposals, if you HAD to choose between them which one would you choose: $.25 sales tax increase OR .4% transfer tax.
Sales tax 59.2%
Transfer tax 32%

The survey presentation does not give the exact question wording for most of the questions, but they do provide some information. The sales tax and transfer tax questions were preceded by information about estimated first-year revenue from each and the impact they would have on property taxes for a $200,000 house. That is a fairly good explanation of the situation. However, in the voting booth that information will not be available.

Also of note was the sampling. While the survey was taken of registered voters, they were first screened to see if they were likely to vote in the 2007 elections. If respondents were probably or definitely not voting, they were excluded. That’s not the most accurate way to determine a likely voter (many people will lie to say that they will vote) but it’s better than nothing.

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