Mike Huckabee 27
John McCain 26
Mitt Romney 15
Fred Thompson 11
Rudy Giuliani 9
Ron Paul 4
There's only one real winner in this poll and that's John McCain. McCain went from just 8% in December's poll to a very close second place.
Huckabee, Thompson, and Giuliani all go in the loser category. Huckabee's lead dropped from 16 points last month to 1 this time around. Thompson, after leading the GOP field for most of the year in North Carolina, is down to fourth. And Giuliani fell from 17% and 2nd place to 9% and 5th place.
If Mike Huckabee is counting on running to the nomination by putting together strong victories in the south this isn't a good sign. John McCain's momentum after winning New Hampshire is clearly going a lot further than what Huckabee derived out of his success in Iowa.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
January Democratic Tracking Poll: the Other Stuff
US Senate:
Kay Hagan 19
Jim Neal 7
John Ross Hendrix 4
Duskin Lassiter 4
There continues to be very little movement in the race. Jim Neal barely out polls fringe candidates John Ross Hendrix and Duskin Lassiter. Hagan expands her lead over Neal from 9 points last month to 12 this month, but actually has her standing drop from 22 to 19. I'm going to be writing a longer post about our Senate candidates later this week or early next week.
Lieutenant Governor:
Pat Smathers 9
Walter Dalton 9
Dan Besse 8
Hampton Dellinger 7
Same old, same old except there are even more undecideds this month than there had been recently.
Treasurer:
Janet Cowell 14
David Young 13
Michael Weisel 6
Cowell and Young have been closely matched with Weisel further behind in all the polling we've done on this race.
Superintendent of Public Instruction:
June Atkinson 38
Eddie Davis 12
Atkinson has increased her lead every month since we started polling on this race in October.
Full results here.
Kay Hagan 19
Jim Neal 7
John Ross Hendrix 4
Duskin Lassiter 4
There continues to be very little movement in the race. Jim Neal barely out polls fringe candidates John Ross Hendrix and Duskin Lassiter. Hagan expands her lead over Neal from 9 points last month to 12 this month, but actually has her standing drop from 22 to 19. I'm going to be writing a longer post about our Senate candidates later this week or early next week.
Lieutenant Governor:
Pat Smathers 9
Walter Dalton 9
Dan Besse 8
Hampton Dellinger 7
Same old, same old except there are even more undecideds this month than there had been recently.
Treasurer:
Janet Cowell 14
David Young 13
Michael Weisel 6
Cowell and Young have been closely matched with Weisel further behind in all the polling we've done on this race.
Superintendent of Public Instruction:
June Atkinson 38
Eddie Davis 12
Atkinson has increased her lead every month since we started polling on this race in October.
Full results here.
January Democratic Tracking Poll: Governor
Bev Perdue 41
Richard Moore 25
Dennis Nielsen 2
Perdue matches the biggest lead she's had in any publicly released polling that's been conducted since she entered the race. What's interesting about the results is that while Perdue is at the same 41% figure she was last month, Moore dropped from 32 to 25.
What that indicates is that her attacks on Richard Moore are working. They're not increasing her level of support, but they are creating doubt in the electorate's mind about Moore. I think tying Moore to the Randy Parton Roanoke Rapids fiasco was effective because it's an issue that resonates with the public at large more than the other salvos they've been lobbing at each other. Everyone knows that Parton got fired because he got drunk and wasted a lot of taxpayer money. I doubt that many voters actually understand what the connection between Moore and the incident is, but that's not necessarily the Perdue campaign's objective. The objective is to get voters to think Richard Moore when they think Randy Parton, and this shift in the numbers over the last five weeks is an indication that may be working.
Full results here.
Richard Moore 25
Dennis Nielsen 2
Perdue matches the biggest lead she's had in any publicly released polling that's been conducted since she entered the race. What's interesting about the results is that while Perdue is at the same 41% figure she was last month, Moore dropped from 32 to 25.
What that indicates is that her attacks on Richard Moore are working. They're not increasing her level of support, but they are creating doubt in the electorate's mind about Moore. I think tying Moore to the Randy Parton Roanoke Rapids fiasco was effective because it's an issue that resonates with the public at large more than the other salvos they've been lobbing at each other. Everyone knows that Parton got fired because he got drunk and wasted a lot of taxpayer money. I doubt that many voters actually understand what the connection between Moore and the incident is, but that's not necessarily the Perdue campaign's objective. The objective is to get voters to think Richard Moore when they think Randy Parton, and this shift in the numbers over the last five weeks is an indication that may be working.
Full results here.
January Democratic Tracking Poll: President
Clinton 31
Obama 29
Edwards 27
It looks like Barack Obama got the greatest amount of momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire in North Carolina. This is his strongest performance ever in the state. Some speculated that Obama's support among African American voters would increase after he showed he could win in Iowa and this poll lends some credence to that theory. He received over 60% of the support of black voters in this survey. Obama also leads the Democratic primary field among independent voters.
Hillary Clinton maintains the overall lead, although it is not as large as it was last month.
The big loser, of course, is John Edwards. His third place finish underscores the fact that he is losing his momentum everywhere, including his home state. He'll need to do something surprising in Nevada or South Carolina to turn it around or else his chances are close to zero.
Full results here.
Obama 29
Edwards 27
It looks like Barack Obama got the greatest amount of momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire in North Carolina. This is his strongest performance ever in the state. Some speculated that Obama's support among African American voters would increase after he showed he could win in Iowa and this poll lends some credence to that theory. He received over 60% of the support of black voters in this survey. Obama also leads the Democratic primary field among independent voters.
Hillary Clinton maintains the overall lead, although it is not as large as it was last month.
The big loser, of course, is John Edwards. His third place finish underscores the fact that he is losing his momentum everywhere, including his home state. He'll need to do something surprising in Nevada or South Carolina to turn it around or else his chances are close to zero.
Full results here.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Someone floats a number
I wrote yesterday about how I was surprised no one was touting their year end fundraising totals.
Just got the first one. State Treasurer candidate David Young, a Democratic County Commissioner in Buncombe County, sent out an email saying he raised over 435k. Pretty impressive for a down ballot race. It'll be interesting to see how his main opponent, Wake County senator Janet Cowell, is stacking up in that department.
Just got the first one. State Treasurer candidate David Young, a Democratic County Commissioner in Buncombe County, sent out an email saying he raised over 435k. Pretty impressive for a down ballot race. It'll be interesting to see how his main opponent, Wake County senator Janet Cowell, is stacking up in that department.
Parallels between McCrory and Romney?
Mitt Romney got elected Governor as a Republican in heavily Democratic Massachusetts by running as a moderate.
Then he decided to run for President. The Republican electorate is pretty conservative, especially in key primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
So he decided to make himself into a conservative. Based on the results in those two states it didn't work. The voters didn't buy it.
Pat McCrory has been reelected as Mayor without strong Democratic opposition for years. He's done it by both running and governing as a moderate, making him virtually unbeatable.
If he decides to run for Governor he has a choice. He can run as who he is, a moderate Republican, and see if that's good enough to make it through a primary dominated by conservative voters.
Or he can go the Romney way and try to turn himself into a conservative.
I would guess that he would have about as much success repositioning himself as Romney did. Not much. So his best strategy is probably to be himself and convince primary voters they should choose him as their best shot for ending 16 years of Democratic dominance in the Governor's Mansion.
Then he decided to run for President. The Republican electorate is pretty conservative, especially in key primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
So he decided to make himself into a conservative. Based on the results in those two states it didn't work. The voters didn't buy it.
Pat McCrory has been reelected as Mayor without strong Democratic opposition for years. He's done it by both running and governing as a moderate, making him virtually unbeatable.
If he decides to run for Governor he has a choice. He can run as who he is, a moderate Republican, and see if that's good enough to make it through a primary dominated by conservative voters.
Or he can go the Romney way and try to turn himself into a conservative.
I would guess that he would have about as much success repositioning himself as Romney did. Not much. So his best strategy is probably to be himself and convince primary voters they should choose him as their best shot for ending 16 years of Democratic dominance in the Governor's Mansion.
Update on our polling plans
We're going to go ahead and do the January primary tracking poll for North Carolina. Barring technological malfeasance the polls will be released Thursday and Friday.
One twist for this month's poll is that we are going to include unaffiliated voters in the primary sample for the first time. We have been buying one sample of registered Democrats who are likely primary voters and another sample of registered Republicans who are likely primary voters. That covers most of the primary electorate but was excluding unaffiliated voters who can choose either party's primary. So they will be included for the first time in this month's results and we'll see what impact they have.
One twist for this month's poll is that we are going to include unaffiliated voters in the primary sample for the first time. We have been buying one sample of registered Democrats who are likely primary voters and another sample of registered Republicans who are likely primary voters. That covers most of the primary electorate but was excluding unaffiliated voters who can choose either party's primary. So they will be included for the first time in this month's results and we'll see what impact they have.
Could North Carolina matter?
A reporter from the Mountains called me this morning and asked if I thought our primary could matter in May.
I do, but the only way it could happen is if Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama pretty much alternate winning primaries so much over the next few months that neither can ever really get enough momentum to put the other away. For instance on Super Tuesday, one would have to win New York and the other win California probably. And neither of them could win too many primaries in a row.
This sort of back and forth momentum swing resulted in the last primary contest that was so close that primaries scheduled at the end of the line really mattered. It was the race for the 1976 GOP nomination between Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford.
It looked like Ford was going to run away with it. He won New Hampshire narrowly but went on to take Florida and Illinois by good margins. It looked like Reagan was dead, and presumably his political career along with it.
Then the race came to North Carolina, Reagan pulled off a shocking victory, and stopped Ford's momentum. Reagan went on to win a bunch of states with extremely conservative Republican primary electorates while Ford had success in places where the base was Rockefeller Republicans.
It went to the convention and Ford won, but it sure kept Reagan's political career alive. So depending on your perspective you can bless or curse North Carolina for giving us eight years of Reagan in the White House. Probably never would have happened if he hadn't won our primary.
If Clinton or Obama string together enough wins to gain the kind of momentum John Kerry got in 2004, North Carolina will be irrelevant come May. But this just might be the year things are knotted enough that we matter.
I do, but the only way it could happen is if Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama pretty much alternate winning primaries so much over the next few months that neither can ever really get enough momentum to put the other away. For instance on Super Tuesday, one would have to win New York and the other win California probably. And neither of them could win too many primaries in a row.
This sort of back and forth momentum swing resulted in the last primary contest that was so close that primaries scheduled at the end of the line really mattered. It was the race for the 1976 GOP nomination between Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford.
It looked like Ford was going to run away with it. He won New Hampshire narrowly but went on to take Florida and Illinois by good margins. It looked like Reagan was dead, and presumably his political career along with it.
Then the race came to North Carolina, Reagan pulled off a shocking victory, and stopped Ford's momentum. Reagan went on to win a bunch of states with extremely conservative Republican primary electorates while Ford had success in places where the base was Rockefeller Republicans.
It went to the convention and Ford won, but it sure kept Reagan's political career alive. So depending on your perspective you can bless or curse North Carolina for giving us eight years of Reagan in the White House. Probably never would have happened if he hadn't won our primary.
If Clinton or Obama string together enough wins to gain the kind of momentum John Kerry got in 2004, North Carolina will be irrelevant come May. But this just might be the year things are knotted enough that we matter.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
What a difference a month makes
27 days ago we ran a poll of potential general election matchups in North Carolina.
We didn't even include John McCain as one of the possible Republican nominees, he was so far behind.
Tonight he is the winner in New Hampshire.
Eight years ago he won New Hampshire too but saw his progress stilted after being the victim of an incredibly nasty combination of attacks and floated rumors in South Carolina.
Karl Rove isn't working in this race so I expect it will be a different story this year.
One thing's for sure. We'll include him the next time we test possible general election matches.
We didn't even include John McCain as one of the possible Republican nominees, he was so far behind.
Tonight he is the winner in New Hampshire.
Eight years ago he won New Hampshire too but saw his progress stilted after being the victim of an incredibly nasty combination of attacks and floated rumors in South Carolina.
Karl Rove isn't working in this race so I expect it will be a different story this year.
One thing's for sure. We'll include him the next time we test possible general election matches.
Fundraising numbers?
We're a week into 2008 but unless I've missed it I haven't seen a single email from a North Carolina candidate bragging about their Q4 fundraising totals yet.
It could simply be because they aren't due for a few weeks yet, although candidates frequently float their numbers well ahead of the deadline, especially if they're good.
Those numbers will certainly tell some interesting tales. I'm most curious about the US Senate race. Jim Neal and Kay Hagan have both been running pretty low key campaigns. Hagan is a slight favorite right now but if either of them has a significant money advantage I think they would have a leg up in the primary.
Bev Perdue and Richard Moore, two politicians who rarely pass on the opportunity to one up each other, have been silent as well. I'm guessing they're in a prisoners dilemma situation, each waiting to see what the other does first.
In the GOP gubernatorial race there has been a significant cash deficit relative to their Democratic counterparts. Are any of them catching up?
And in the Democratic Lieutenant Governor race, have Hampton Dellinger and Walter Dalton continued to stay neck and neck well on their way to a million?
We'll find out all the answers in the coming weeks I suppose.
It could simply be because they aren't due for a few weeks yet, although candidates frequently float their numbers well ahead of the deadline, especially if they're good.
Those numbers will certainly tell some interesting tales. I'm most curious about the US Senate race. Jim Neal and Kay Hagan have both been running pretty low key campaigns. Hagan is a slight favorite right now but if either of them has a significant money advantage I think they would have a leg up in the primary.
Bev Perdue and Richard Moore, two politicians who rarely pass on the opportunity to one up each other, have been silent as well. I'm guessing they're in a prisoners dilemma situation, each waiting to see what the other does first.
In the GOP gubernatorial race there has been a significant cash deficit relative to their Democratic counterparts. Are any of them catching up?
And in the Democratic Lieutenant Governor race, have Hampton Dellinger and Walter Dalton continued to stay neck and neck well on their way to a million?
We'll find out all the answers in the coming weeks I suppose.
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