Friday, June 22, 2007

Now, for a look at the Crosstabs...

The Presidential tracking poll we released on Wednesday had lots of numbers and lots of crosstabs. After some analysis, here's what we found:

Not surprisingly, support for President Bush and Senator Dole was split along party lines. Independent support for Bush is only at 32%. Dole has very high marks among Republicans, but she is losing support among Independents, which is not a good sign for her upcoming reelection. Interestingly, disapproval for President Bush is equally dismal throughout every age group. About 60% of each group disapproves of Bush, regardless of party. His approval ratings continue to drop on a monthly basis, and if he keeps heading in the direction he is, especially on immigration, even his base will abandon him.

Among women voters, Dole seems to have higher support than Hillary Clinton, which is surprising considering that Hillary is the Democrat. Her support among women isn't as high as expected considering the high number of female Democratic voters. Even though she garners more female support than any one of her male candidates, she never receives more than 50% of her support from women. Oddly, Dole has the highest approval among young voters. Dole's approval rating is more than 50% among voters between 18 and 45.

In the Presidential matchups, Edwards and Obama have the most support among Independent voters. They receive more Independent support than any of their Republican rivals and more than Clinton. However, Clinton receives the highest portion of black support, even more than Obama. While Obama's support among blacks is around 70%, Clinton has support upwards of 75%. Her high support among blacks is likely due to her high name recognition and the fact that her husband is very highly supported in the black community.

Where Clinton garners support among blacks, though, Obama and Edwards have high support from younger voters. Both Obama and Edwards have the highest percentage of support from young people, with well over 50% of voters between 18 and 29 support either candidate. Interestingly, Fred Thompson also has relatively high support among young voters. More voters between 18 and 29 support Thompson than Clinton, and against Edwards, Thompson has 47% support.

Barack Obama has limited support throughout the state, only really having high support in the 919 area code (the Triangl), which is arguably the most Democratic area of the state. However, name recognition might be a problem since he is a freshman Senator and doesn't have very much support throughout the state.

By Carrie and Mark
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