Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Michigan: President and Senate

Barack Obama 48
John McCain 39

Barack Obama begins the general election in Michigan with a nine point lead. There are strong indications within the poll that party unity is close to full strength in the state. This is the first state where PPP has found Obama doing a better job of holding Democratic voters within the party (78-12) than McCain has of nailing down the Republican vote (74-19). Obama also has a 40-36 lead with independent voters, which Michigan has a lot of.

Obama's going to win any state where he's leading the white vote, and he has a 44-42 lead with it at this point. His 76-18 lead with black voters is likely to end up being larger on election day- pre-election polls frequently under estimate the percentage of the African American vote that Democratic candidates end up garnering.

The gender gap in Michigan is not particularly large. Obama leads by 11 points with women and 7 points with men.

Michigan had been thought to be a state where McCain could play offense, but this initial poll shows he has a lot of ground to make up.

Carl Levin 54
Jack Hoogendyk 32

Levin is likely to win another dominant reelection. Even among Republicans Hoogendyk is polling at just 63%, with Levin pulling 23%. Levin also has a 53-27 advantage with independent voters.

Full results here.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Obama will win in a landslide.
The numbers look already very good for him in every swing states.

And the Obama camp with the liberal groups work hard for registering new voters in FL, GA, VA, NC, MI, OH, PA and others states.

Obama win easy.

p smith said...

Tom

Is there any chance of providing advance notice as to when you will release presidential polls? At the moment political sad cases such as me, have no option but to go to your site, Rasmussen and SurveyUSA in the vain hope that a new poll will appear. I guess that's good for your site hits but it would be nice to know that a particular poll is on its way.

One other question. Do you intend to poll any other states. So far you have polled, NC, VA, OH and MI. If I had to choose a few more states to poll I think that NM, CO, PA, WI and IA are the critical ones.

p smith said...

And Florida, obviously.

In fact the current polls on Florida are so contradictory that this is probably the most interesting state to poll right now given its eclectic mix of Reps, Dems, Cubans, Jews and seniors.

Josh said...

I'm wondering if you're going to run any polls on Connecticut, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, and North Dakota?

The most recent polls in those states had the race in single digits, but it's been quite a while since any of those states have been polled.

 
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