Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Governor

Bev Perdue 42
Pat McCrory 41
Michael Munger 5

The race for Governor continues to be extremely close. All three surveys PPP has conducted since the primary have shown the race within the margin of error. There is not likely to be much movement in this race one way or the other until the candidates start advertising later in the summer- everything going on right now is largely for show and having little impact on voter perceptions of the candidates.

Perdue continues to have a problem holding onto Democratic voters at quite the rate she needs to. She has a 68-19 lead with folks in her own party, while Pat McCrory has a 75-10 edge with Republican voters. Most of the fall off with Democrats for Perdue is in the greater Charlotte area. One of her biggest challenges this fall will be to convince voters there that even if McCrory's views on municipal issues were consistent with theirs, his views on some social and economic issues that he will confront as Governor are out of touch with Democratic values.

Michael Munger is having an impact on the race, pulling 13% of independents with McCrory and Perdue splitting them at 33%. In the polls before Munger got on the ballot McCrory was leading among independents, so it would seem that he is pulling voters away from him. Munger also gets 5% of the Republican vote compared to 3% of the Democratic vote.

The only people happier than the Libertarians about them getting back on the ballot have to be the Democrats.

Full results here.

2 comments:

Matt Douglas said...

I thought Pat McCrory would do well in the 828 area code. The Charlotte media market includes some of this area code. Also Republicans have typically done well here.

I thought Bev Perdue would do well in the 252 area code. This area code includes her residence and typically Democrats have done well here.

Why do you think McCrory and Perdue are not leading and showing substantial leads in the area codes mentioned? Also the poll for every crosstab except Native/Non-native and Issues has Perdue leading McCrory 42-41 percent with Mike Munger with 5 percent and Undecided with 12 percent. The two crosstabs I mentioned have Perdue and McCrory tied at 42 percent with the numbers for Munger and Undecided the same as previously mentioned. These exceptions add up to over 100 percent.

Tom Jensen said...

Most of our polling does show Perdue doing much better in 252 and McCrory doing much better in 828. The subsamples for each region are pretty small and I would say the results for those places this time are anomalies rather than real trends.

The second issue is just a rounding thing.

 
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