Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Illinois Senate: Dreadful Numbers for Burris

PPP has never found an elected official getting more negative than positive reviews from voters within their own party. Until today.

Only 27% of folks who say they're likely to vote in the Democratic primary next year in Illinois approve of Roland Burris' job performance. 49% disapprove and 24% aren't sure.

Alexi Giannoulias appears to be the strongest candidate at this point unless Lisa Madigan changes her mind and decides to make the race.

Giannoulias leads Burris 49-20 in a head to head contest. When you put Jan Schakowsky into the mix Giannoulias gets 38%, followed by Schakowsky at 26%, and Burris at 16%.

One particularly interesting thing to note here is the black vote. A majority of black Democrats still say they approve of Burris' performance by a margin of 53/28. But they're not necessarily that committed to voting for him. While Burris does lead Giannoulias 48-30 in the two way contest among black voters, when Schakowsky is included Giannoulias actually leads among them with 39% to Burris' 36% and 14% for Schakowsky. Obivously if Burris decided to seek a full term getting near univeral black support would be critical to pretty much any hope of his winning, and right now that would not happen.

Giannoulias is a little better known statewide than Schakowsky, with 53% of likely primary voters holding a positive opinion of him and 37% with no opinion. For Schakowsky 42% have a favorable view of her and 50% don't have a stance one way or the other at this point.

The wild card in this race is whether Lisa Madigan changes her mind about whether she's interested in it. If she does, it appears to be hers for the taking. In a four way contest including Madigan she leads with 44% to 19% for Giannoulias, 13% for Burris, and 11% for Schakowsky. Our early poll numbers indicate she can probably get elected Governor too, but she would start out with a greater advantage for the Senate contest.

We'll release numbers tomorrow looking at how all of these folks match up with possible Republican contender Mark some of the contests it's a little closer than you might expect.

Full results here.

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