Monday, April 20, 2009

Previewing Colorado

We'll start rolling out our Colorado poll tomorrow with a look at Barack Obama and Mark Udall's approval ratings, followed by Michael Bennet's standing Wednesday, and Bill Ritter's standing Thursday.

One thing folks might not know about Colorado, especially given how Democratic it has voted in the last couple elections, is that it is actually not a state with a large Democratic identification advantage. Its exit poll showed a GOP +1 party breakdown, as did our January survey of the state. The one we'll be releasing this week come out at GOP +2.

The reason Obama and Udall were able to win by such significant margins last fall was very strong performances with independent voters. Each of our last three polls showed both of them winning that group by more than 20 points, Obama by an average of 24 and Udall by an average of 27.

For Obama and Udall to keep up that strong standing...and for Democrats like Bennet and Ritter to keep winning, they have to keep up that solid performance with independent voters. Stay tuned this week to see how they're doing on that front at this point in time.

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