Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Republican ID

Taegan Goddard points to a couple recent national polls showing the percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Republicans down around 20%.

I don't think there's much doubt the GOP is a big old mess right now, but I don't think it's that bad either.

We've polled in eight states over the last two months and all of them had at least 28% of voters describe themselves as Republicans. Here's the breakdown:

State

Republican Identification

Texas

44%

Kentucky

39%

Colorado

38%

National

33%

North Carolina

33%

Arkansas

31%

Illinois

30%

Delaware

29%

Minnesota

28%


Illinois, Delaware, and Minnesota are all pretty darn blue so if they're averaging 29% of voters identifying as Republicans the true number still has to be somewhere in the 30s.

Maybe this is some sort of twisted Bradley Effect where Republicans are more willing to share that allegiance in an IVR poll than a live interviewer one.

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