Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Is Romney weak with conservatives?

Mitt Romney has had some great polling news lately- he was tied with Barack Obama nationally in a Rasmussen survey on Monday and a Gallup poll last week showed him with an early lead for the 2012 GOP nomination.

Our last two national polls are starting to show a trend that wouldn't bode too well for his chances of surviving the Republican primary contest though: he lags the other hopefuls in his popularity among conservative party voters.

Our poll this month showed 81% of conservative Republicans with a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin with 73% having a positive one about Mike Huckabee and 72% doing the same for Newt Gingrich. But for Romney the figure is just 58%.

That fits the same general trend as our June survey. Then 83% viewed Palin favorably to 79% for Huckabee, 77% for Gingrich, and 69% for Romney.

It's just two polls and we'll have to follow the trend to see if it continues, but Romney is well behind his fellow contenders in popularity among conservative Republicans, and obviously those are the voters who dominate GOP primary electorates.


Anonymous said...

Conservatives? What about moderates?

Am I correct that he has no advantage in favorability among moderate Republicans?

You could conceivably make up for a deficit among conservative Republicans if you were extremely popular among moderate Republicans but that does not appear to be the case with Romney.

Anonymous said...

All things being equal, I'd like to be in Romney's position right now.

He's the ideas leader for the Republican Party, with serious, sober and thoughtful proposals on the main issues of the day.

He comes from a swing state so he can get crossover votes.

He's got a national fundraising base.

He's run for president before.

No one - and I mean, no one - can match his record of success, as a business leader, as the leader of the Olympics, as the governor of a state.

Anonymous said...

What swing state? Massachusetts? Utah? Michigan?

Anonymous said...

Nevada? Mexico?

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