Monday, July 20, 2009

Obama continues to drop

PPP's monthly national survey shows Barack Obama's approval rating continuing to drop. It's now at 50% with 43% of voters disapproving, continuing a steady decline from 52% in June and 55% in May.

Compared to a month ago his numbers are largely unchanged with Democrats and independents but he continues to lose the little bipartisan appeal he had to begin with. His approval with Republicans is now 12%, down from 18% in June.

While he's continued to maintain a high level of popularity with African Americans and Hispanics, his approval with whites is now at 39%. That's four points below what exit polls showed him earning last November.

Obama continues to lead the top potential GOP hopefuls for 2012. He's up 48-42 on Mike Huckabee, 50-42 on Newt Gingrich, 51-43 on Sarah Palin, and 49-40 on Mitt Romney.

The six point lead over Huckabee is the first time in the four months we've been polling these match ups that Obama has shown an advantage against any of these candidates smaller than his popular vote victory over John McCain. It's also the fourth month in a row that Huckabee has fared the best of the Republicans possibilities.

The numbers from this poll also seem to indicate that Sarah Palin did not do herself any immediate damage with her decision to resign as Governor of Alaska. Her favorability spread of 47/45 is the best PPP has found it over the course of six surveys conducted in the last four months. Also, her eight point deficit against Obama is the first time it's been in single digits over the course of these monthly 2012 polls. She also continues to have easily the highest percentage of GOP voters holding a positive opinion of her.

The Republicans are doing better against Obama in these polls but even as his popularity has dipped nearly below 50% none of them are really within striking range of him. You have to wonder if the GOP's best hope in three years is going to be a fresh face rather than one of these folks who's already been consistently in the national spotlight. PPP numbers from Louisiana out Wednesday will show Bobby Jindal as one of the most popular Governors in the country- he wouldn't be the first person from his part of the country to be elected President after sputtering in his national debut.

Full results here.

15 comments:

Stephen C. Rose said...

This is in line with other polls. It reflects the Obama strategy. When he scores some victories on the big issues, the numbers will follow like little lambs. One yawns.

Anonymous said...

Tom,

Rasmussen has it:

Obama 45
Romney 45

Obama 48
Palin 42

What do you think? The Palin-Obama numbers are similar but the Obama-Romney number seems to be a total outlier.

Jeff said...

I wonder if Palin's sudden resignation made it easier for Jindal to justify running in 2012 after only one term as Governor. Pundits have previously stated that Jindal can either run for reelection in 2011 or President in 2012 but not both, and he may not be viable if he bails the governorship in 2011. But should he and Palin both run in 2012 he wouldn't look like the most inexperienced person there. And Palin's continued popularity with most of the GOP makes it clear that a lack of experience is far from fatal.

Anonymous said...

Considering that Obama only got 52% of the vote, a 50% approval rating is still very good.

And to answer your question:
For some reason, Rasmussen's Democratic sample is always slightly more economically conservative than that from other pollsters. I'm guessing it's a product of their long questionnaire of economic questions... so if you find yourself willing to stay on the phone for all of that, chances are you are more economically educated, and a bit more moderate, if not more conservative, than the more populist Democrats. Hence why Romney does better on the Rasmussen.

Anonymous said...

Tom,

Not looking like Goldwater at all pal. You show the same approval rating for Obama as Rasmussen, so we can discard that meme.

The trend seems pretty clear for Obama from all polling. Downward, downward, downward.

I doubt the economy is going to get better. I hope it won't.

Tom Jensen said...

Well you are a bad person if you want the economy to not get better for three and a half more years so your side can win an election. That doesn't show much compassion for all of the families suffering across the country right now. If there was some sort of guarantee that putting the GOP back in charge would fix the economy I'd support it because our prosperity is more important than partisanship.

Anonymous said...

Tom, Tom,

We'll be glad to have your vote in 2012. If you want those families to stop suffering and for long-term prosperity, you'll vote GOP. There is no chance for the country that we love to recover under Obama.

I respect your polling, so perhaps we shouldn't stray too far from that. The left is trying to dismiss your polling but the trends are apparent everywhere. This man is going down and I hope he does.

What are the moderate Republican/conservative Republican breakdowns?

Tom Jensen said...

Ha! Yes, the economy was so good during the Bush years, I'm sure the country wants to go back to that.

sycodon said...

I'll take an unemployment rate of 4 something percent and the DOW at 14k anytime.

Anonymous said...

Tom,

The economy under Bush was good post 9/11-2006. You seem to forget that those tax cuts Obama is going to take away got us out of the post-9/11 recession.

But good attempt to link any Republican to Bush's economy. Clinton and Obama were two different type of Democrats and yet, you seem to think all Republicans would take the Bush approach to the economy.

Anyway, what are those moderate/conservative Republican numbers.

Brandon said...

STOP THE PRESSES: Obama v. Palin, and it's 51-43%??? But I thought it was supposed to be more like 65-35%? But I thought that the conventional wisdom was that she was 'good-as-Goldwater'? I thought the conventional wisdom was that Sarah is a fringe-looney? But my goodness, you have 2 polls in the same day showing Sarah within striking distance (and certainly, you would not disagree that losing 51-43% and 48-42% puts her in striking distance).

I also just want to add, again, that it's amazing that Palin is holding her own against Obama in both PPP and Rasmussen polling, yet the media and the left would like to have you believe she is the most hated woman in America. Well, if she's losing to Obama by only 6 or 8 points, THREE YEARS out from the election, I think this means you're wrong. That, on top of the fact that at the same time the national media is doing everything they can to destroy Palin, and doing everything they can to lift Obama up.....all of that, and he only beats her by 6-8 points. And you Dems think this bodes well for him? Do explain, please.

Darsh said...

It's far too early to extrapolate any sort of meaningful data from the 2012 matchups, 3.5 years before the actual election. Remember, at this point 4 years ago Hillary Clinton was beating Rudy Giuliani by 4-5 points.

Irish&Proud said...

Tom Jensen...

For anyone from the Democratic left (such as yourself) to point an accusing finger at ANYONE else for wanting economic problems so they can win elections is hypocrisy in the extreme. Where have you been the last 8 years? Firstly the Bush years NEVER saw the kind of economic stagnation that Obama has already produced (and no, you CANNOT say this is still Bush's doing; most of this is now the result of Obama's big spending having its effect), and secondly it was the LEFT wing that WROTE THE BOOK on wishing negative things to happen so they could benefit politcally. They screamed and moaned for the past eight years about everything, all just to harm Bush. They LOVED an economic downturn so they could run on it in '08. They REJOICED when black people died in Katrina, so they could accuse Bush of wanting less of them around (some certifiable kooks actually believed this rot). They all but CELEBRATED when U.S. troops died in Iraq, because they hoped it would make Bush look worse. And if they could, they would FORBID any expression of disagreement with them, or their guy in the White House, or their beliefs (all too often tossing that worn-out 'racist!' charge at anyone who opposes this buffoon). Of course, now that Mr. O's in there, oh -- everything's all smiles and roses, and how dare you disagree! Come on, Tom. It's not working.

livfreeordi said...

These poll results are in line with almost every poll I've seen lately... down for Obama.

Bad news for Obama.

Good news for the country.

Maybe people are waking up?

Anonymous said...

The problem with Obama is that he is extending the massive spending projects of GWB. He is bankrupting the nation.
Tom,
Polls don't matter for Obama right now. It only matters what they say in 2012.

 
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