We wrote last week about how we were finding approval ratings for Barack Obama on a state by state basis that on average were within 1-2 points of the percentage of the vote he received in that state...and that it made sense given that the sampling we were using was the same as for an even year general electorate.
The 53% approval rating we found for Obama in New Jersey over the weekend though is a little off that trend- four points below the 57% he earned at the polls there in November.
The difference may be that in New Jersey the sampling we're using is for an odd year general electorate, since we're polling the Governor's race there. A big part of Obama's strength was his ability to get out new voters or more casual voters to the polls, and those folks would not be reflected in our Gubernatorial polling. That certainly could result in our finding lower numbers for Obama in both New Jersey and Virginia for the rest of the year.
And of course getting those folks who turned out for Obama to come out for him could be key to Jon Corzine's chances at reelection this fall. But history suggests there will be at least a 30% dropoff in turnout from last November to this November.