Thursday, September 17, 2009

Looking closer at Obama in New Jersey

In July we found Barack Obama's approval rating at 53% in New Jersey. Now we have it down at 45%. That means it's time to answer one of our favorite questions: who'd he lose?

The main answer in New Jersey is moderates, regardless of their party affiliations. He went from 78% to 69% with moderate Democrats, 29% to 20% with moderate Republicans, and most damaging 59% to 39% with moderate independents.

The other group he saw a significant drop with was conservative independents, from 20% to 9%.

When we compared his national numbers from April to August we did not find any drop yet among moderate Democrats or moderate Republicans so it will be interesting next week on our forthcoming national poll to see if that's a broader trend or just likely Gubernatorial voters in New Jersey.

One group Obama continues to have no trouble with is liberal Democrats: his approval with them shot from 94% to 98%.

The full data:

Obama Approval in NJ

July

September

Liberal Democrats

94

98

Moderate Democrats

78

69

Conservative Democrats

57

63

Moderate Independents

59

39

Moderate Republicans

29

20

Conservative Independents

20

9

Conservative Republicans

7

4

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

"One group Obama continues to have no trouble with is liberal Democrats: his approval with them shot from 94% to 98%."

it looks like approval among conservative Democrats went up even more !

Anonymous said...

That just looks weird... approval went up among both liberal Democrats and conservative Democrats, but down among moderate Democrats?

 
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