Thursday, September 24, 2009

Obama leads 2012 foes

If Barack Obama had to stand for reelection today he'd win by as much as he did last year, if not more.

He leads Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Sarah Palin by anywhere from 7-15 points in hypothetical 2012 contests.

Huckabee comes the closest, trailing Obama 48-41. In the six months PPP has run this poll he has been the most competitive Republican every time. Obama's lead has increased from 47-44 over the former Arkansas Governor a month ago.

Mitt Romney does next best, down 48-39. In some ways he looks like a stronger general candidate than a primary one though. He has the best favorability of the GOP quartet with Democrats and independents, but only 50% of Republicans have a positive opinion of him compared to 70% for Mike Huckabee and 69% for Sarah Palin. Will he be able to connect well enough with the GOP base to snag the nomination?

It's safe to say that the country is not ready for another Bush. Only 22% of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Jeb, with 45% saying it was unfavorable. Even Palin's numbers are better with Democrats and independents than his. He trails Obama 50-37 in a potential contest. It'll be interesting to see if the Bush brand is permanently damaged or if the family can make a comeback in the future, but it seems safe to say that won't be likely in the next few years.

And finally Sarah Palin polls the worst against Obama, and her numbers have been getting progressively worse over the last couple months. Her favorability peaked in our polling at 47/45 in the middle of July, then dropped to 40/49 in August, and now 37/55 in September. Hard to say why she's seeing so much droppage during a period when she's been mostly out of the public eye but it all adds up to her trailing Obama 53-38.

Looking at these numbers it's safe to say that rumors of Barack Obama's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Which is not to say that 2010 won't be a tough election year for Democrats. But that's because Republican voters are more fired up than Democrats and more likely to turn out in a non-Presidential year, not because the electorate as a whole has decided it thinks Republicans would do a better job of running the country.

Full results here

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

thanks for the poll, i hope jeb bush runs, i think he can beat obama, if you go back im sure obama was low on numbers to before he started to campaign, if jeb runs i believe he wins florida would you do a poll with obama and jeb regarding florida, if so all jeb would have to do is win ohio and virgina and colorado and he wins the whitehouse.

Anonymous said...

Tom,

Aren't the undecideds comprised mainly of people who disapprove of Obama or have no opinion on his performance by an overwhelming margin?

If so, I'd imagine that these margins would decline significantly once they were forced to vote. That said, Obama would still win but the very fact that we're even having this discussion eight months into his term is stunning.

Anonymous said...

How did MSNBC go this morning? What was the topic of conversation?

Anonymous said...

It's just that the GOP field is so weak. Huckabee will surely keep America polarized enough to ensure an Obama victory. Huckabee might do better in the South than did McCain, only to lose badly outside the South. Romney might reduce the polarity some in the North only to throw the Clinton coalition to Obama and set up an Eisenhower-scale landslide in electoral votes.

Palin has become a political disaster -- a provincial hack likely to throw away any moderate vote. Jeb Bush? Not until the political gangrene of his brother vanishes from the political scene. Either looks to set up a Reagan-scale landslide.

Anonymous said...

If obama continues to stab progessives in the back, his base, the ones that worked to get him in, he will not have them to work for him and he will have to get his workers from his conservatives and blue dog peeps who didnt vote for him but are the only one he listens too. He may have the poll now, but not the workers to make it happen..We hear a progressive campaign obama but see the actions of a bush presidentcy. That is not who we voted for.

Gary Sartori said...

I really don't like Obama, but the Republicans as of right now don't have anyone who I would consider voting for. All of them are so rabidly right wing, that they don't appeal to me at all.

I voted Hillary in my primary, and so wish she were POTUS!!!

Anonymous said...

Palin tanking is easy to explain:

Nobody likes a quitter.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:31 -
Your electoral math is way off. If you take the results of the 2008 election and give the GOP Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado - and those are huge concessions, Obama won VA by 7, CO by 9, OH by 5 - he would still have 296 of the 270 votes needed to win.

Both sides have issues, certainly. Obama's had to spend his administration slowly cleaning up what he was given rather than being a truly progressive President - contingent on what the results of health care are. Many left-leaning folks are pretty disappointed there.

On the other side, the Republican party lost significant membership over the last decade, and has taken many large steps to the right, which has been a huge turn-off to independents. Baring some colossal problems with the current administration, I don't think the GOP has a chance - their candidates can't appeal to both the base AND swing voters.

AKReport said...

just wait till palin's book comes out, expect her numbers jump to about 56%-58% favorable.

frsbdg said...

Well, somebody still likes a quitter - check out the conservatives4palin site. It's a safe bet they won't be talking about this poll over there.

Dave said...

Palin/Plumber Joe 2012!!! WOO!

There is no god. Get over it, religitards.

Dave said...

"Anonymous said... "thanks for the poll, i hope jeb bush runs"

Did you eat a bowl of stupid for breakfast? Another Bush will never be president. His grandfather financed the Nazis before the US entered and he was removed from the board of directors for conflict of interest. It's all about the Federal Reserve using fractional banking, they're the ones who call the shots. They had no problem killing millions of jews while they got richer. Read http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/10_09_01_carlyle.html

Graywolf48 said...

Here's a possible scenario that should be considered. If Obama continues to alienate his progressive base because Rahm Emanuel has assured him "they have no where else to go", he may lose to Huckabee. If progressives think Obama will win and are not fired up, they may not go any where else, but they might just stay home. I'm very disappointed in Obama and his failure to deliver on much of what I voted for him to do. I also survived 8 years of Bush and except for Palin could not imagine any GOP candidate worse than GW. So, I might just stay home because I'm tired of being taken for granted and lied to again and again. I think it's time someone is taught a lesson. I know in 2010, I will not vote for any candidate that opposes a strong public option. I also plan to donate to those progressive candidates who might oppose Blue Dogs in primaries. I, for one, have had enough.

Junior said...

"just wait till palin's book comes out, expect her numbers jump to about 56%-58% favorable."

What, are you expecting it to inspire some kind of Stockholm Syndrome? Or are chapter-length run-on sentences more popular than I realize?

Anonymous said...

Ehhh. I voted for Obama and frankly, I wish he would take off the gloves. Trying to play footsee with a bunch of delusional, schizophrenic Republican Strangeloves is not possible. PLEASE step up the game. And, if we elect a Republican ever again, it is only proof that the southern heat kills brain cells.

Anonymous said...

BREAKING NEWS...

Huckabee smokes the competition at the 2012 Value Voters Presidential Poll with a strong decisive win.

AND Huckabee continues to show his popularity with his strong lead over the competition in the 2012 AOL Presidential poll of nearly 200,000 votes.

Check it out for yourself and google: Huckabee Fan Club

Anonymous said...

ABC, CBS, NBC(GE), MSNBC, CNN, NYT, LAT, MTV, Comedy Central, SNL, and every other nutter left wing outlet attacks Sarah Palin with lies, inuendos, false accusations, insults, impuning her character 24/7.

Gee... and we wonder why her negatives are high?

Hmmmmmmm.......

Media bias?

Surely not, tsk tsk... next.

Polls on represent the bias of the media. It represents the tracking of how well their propaganda spewing machine works these days.

Voila... propaganda works.

JollyRoger said...

Polls on represent the bias of the media. It represents the tracking of how well their propaganda spewing machine works these days.


If I said something this stupid, I'd want to remain anonymous as well. The MSM bent over backwards to try to help Caribou Barbie out of the hole she dug for herself, but she shoveled the dirt so fast that even the sympathetic Charlie Gibson could do nothing for her.

Anonymous said...

Obama is not the worst president we have had by a long shot. He just is the wrong president for today. I gave him money and worked on his campaign and I don't regret it. But never again. I will vote third party no matter the outcome.

Babs said...

I don't believe the numbers,it's almost hard to find a positive story on Obama outside liberal blogs. Too much opposition to his policies. Taxes will be increased, inflation,job losses,he is totally screwing up national security and the economy. All his broken promises. Nah..a poll is a poll,just numbers.

getcashmoney said...

8 months in and somehow Obama was supposed to erase 8 years of incompetence and stupidity. Stop being influenced by the phony outrage displayed at these townhall meetings. Looked like the same people at McCain/Palin rallies during last years campaign. A lot can happen in 13 months, be patient.

Sam

Anonymous said...

Babs you're absolutely correct. Obama is an absolute train wreck and it will only get worse in the next couple years. What is amazing is how quickly he was exposed as a puppet of the left-wing hacks of his party. Obama is a callow empty suite and time will only exacerbate this fact.

Anonymous said...

70 Americans voted for President Obama. He beat McCain by almost 10 million votes.

do the math.........

Anonymous said...

Obama Supporters are terrorists lovers

 
Web Statistics