Barack Obama's approval rating with likely voters for this fall's election in New Jersey has sunk to just 45%, with 48% of voters disapproving of him. That makes you wonder just how effective tying himself to Obama is really going to be for Jon Corzine this fall.
When PPP looked at New Jersey in late July Obama's approval came down at 53/39. Since then he's steady at an 80% approval rating with Democrats but has seen a decline with Republicans and particularly independents. Where he was at a positive 48/42 with unaffiliated voters then, that's now dropped to 36/56. What's particularly interesting about that is over the same period of time Corzine has seen his deficit to Chris Christie among those voters fall from 28 points to 19. With Republicans what was a 20% approval rating is now just 12%.
New Jersey is the first state where PPP has found more people who voted for Obama saying they disapprove of him than people who voted for John McCain that think he's doing a good job. 11% of Obama voters are now unhappy with him while just 6% of people who didn't support him last fall express approval for the job he's doing.
The health care issue doesn't seem to be doing him any favors in the state. Only 39% of voters say they support his plan while 50% are opposed.
It's important to remember that this poll was conducted of the 2009 electorate, which supported Obama just 48-46 last year. If the survey was reweighted to reflect an electorate that voted for him 57-42, his approval spread would be 51/43. That's certainly better, but nevertheless much weaker than his performance on election day last year.
New Jersey's Senators aren't too popular either. Perhaps most worrisome for Democrats in the state are Robert Menendez's numbers. Only 27% of voters express approval for his job performance while 40% disapprove. Even within his own party just 47% give him good marks. Frank Lautenberg's numbers are somewhat better, coming in at 38% approval to 44% disapproval.
Full results here
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5 comments:
I know New Jersey voters usually "come home" late in the election cycle for democrats, but when you have numbers like this on healthcare...teehee.
"It's important to remember that this poll was conducted of the 2009 electorate, which supported Obama just 48-46 last year. If the survey was reweighted to reflect an electorate that voted for him 57-42, his approval spread would be 51/43. That's certainly better, but nevertheless much weaker than his performance on election day last year."
What the hell does this mean? And why do you keep saying it? The 2009 electorate IS THE ELECTORATE! Do me a favor: how would Obama have performed amongst the 1984 electorate, or the 1936 electorate, etc? What does any of it matter?
The fact of the matter remains that the Nov 2008 electoral climate is NOT the electoral climate of Sep 2009. And who is to say what the electoral climate will be in Nov 2010? Seriously Tom, it really sounds like you're coming up with a sorry excuse for your guys' poor numbers in a fairly blue state.
Tom,
Check out the comments to the pollster thread for your NJ poll:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nj_approval_ratings_ppp_91014.php
It seems that the Kos kids are pretty unhappy with you.
Brandon,
We're finding that about 63% of McCain voters but only 48% of Obama voters are planning to vote for Governor in New Jersey this fall. That's why his approval is so bad with that group. Do you really think his supporters aren't going to come back out and vote for him in 2012? Just because they don't care to vote for Jon Corzine doesn't mean they don't care to vote for him.
I think I am a perfect example Brandon of what Tom is referring to. I am an Obama voter from NJ. I have voted in every election that I could so far, except I'm sitting this one out because the campaign has sickened me. I wouldnt be a likely voter, however, I certainly will vote for Obama come 2012. And I certainly will vote Democratic in 2010.
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