On our national poll last week 19% of moderate Republicans said they voted for Barack Obama against John McCain last fall.
When we asked them to look toward 2012 34% said they'd vote for Obama against Sarah Palin, 31% against Jeb Bush, 21% against Mike Huckabee, and 20% against Mitt Romney.
It's safe to say there's no way a GOP President is going to be elected in 2012 if moderate Republicans are even more supportive of Obama than they were last year.
So it seems like the current crop of leading GOP contenders is not going to cut it with the swath of the party that is mainstream enough to consider voting Democratic.
More moderate alternatives may emerge- Tim Pawlenty? But it's going to be a challenge for any more mainstream candidate to make it to the general when 70% of Republican voters are conservatives. We certainly saw that last year with the fate of Rudy Giuliani's campaign (not that he didn't cause a lot of his own problems.)
I think the GOP's worst enemy in 2012 may be itself.