Thursday, September 24, 2009

Quick Odds and Ends

-Democrats are mostly going to be playing defense on the Senate front in 2012 because they pretty much won all competitive seats in 2006. That makes Jon Kyl's middling 43/40 approval rating on our Arizona poll today very interesting. Among independents 53% disapprove of the job he's doing to just 32% approving. With their recent successes in Congressional elections Democrats in the state are building a strong bench, and of course Janet Napolitano might be ready to return to the electoral fray by then. There's a very good chance Arizona is the top pick up opportunity for Democrats that cycle, especially since you know the Obama team will be putting everything it has into flipping that state.

-We're going to ask some other questions about the thesis on our Virginia poll this weekend but this question, which doesn't even mention the thesis, I think has the best chance of truly gaging its impact:
Have you changed your mind about who to vote for Governor in the last month? If no, press 1. If you were undecided but now plan to vote for Creigh Deeds, press 2. If you were undecided but now plan to vote for Bob McDonnell, press 3. If you were planning to vote for Creigh Deeds but are now undecided, press 4. If you were planning to vote for Bob McDonnell but are now undecided, press 5. If you were planning to vote for Creigh Deeds but now plan to vote for Bob McDonnell, press 6. If you were planning to vote for Bob McDonnell but now plan to vote for Creigh Deeds, press 7.

2 comments:

Brandon K said...

Not to demean American people, but the question seems a bit cumbersome and long, and people might get confused in the middle and forget what button to hit(especially the elderly).

Rasmus said...

I'd think that you will see more movement in that question than has actually occured- because of real-life trolls.
Leftists will say they shifted from McDonnell to Deeds, wing-nuts that they went from Deeds to McDonnell- to create the sense that their candidate is gaining momentum.

This is the reason why some people also say that they view someone 'very unfavorably' even if they haven't heard anything from him at all except that he is from the opposing party.

 
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