One of the interesting things to come out of last week's Civitas poll was that after just a couple months in office Kay Hagan appears to have much higher name recognition than Richard Burr.
47% of North Carolinians have a favorable opinion of Hagan according to their poll with 22% holding a negative view. For Burr the numbers are 37/12.
Now obviously Hagan just came off a statewide campaign. Still, it's amazing that 20% more of the population holds an opinion about her than Burr. Has North Carolina just gotten so big that it's impossible for a senator to hold up significant statewide name recognition over the course of a six year term or is it just Burr's fault for not being visible enough?
It would be pretty outside the box but if I was Hagan I would almost consider doing a significant ad buy two or three times a year to remind North Carolinians what I was up to. It would certainly be an unusual allocation of resources but it could make things a lot easier come 2014 if she doesn't have quite as much work to do to remind people who she is. Wonder if donors would be willing to put up the money for that...
Where should we poll next week?
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Virginia Governor still close
Four weeks ago when PPP polled the Virginia Democratic primary for Governor 46% of voters were undecided. Another month's worth of campaigning later that figure is still at 45%. A combination of possible voter fatigue following the 2008 election cycle and the fact that the candidates have not really started heavy spending on advertising yet has the outcome of this race still very much up in the air 10 weeks out from election day.
Brian Moran has moved into a slight lead at 22%, with Terry McAuliffe at 18%, and Creigh Deeds at 15%. Compared to a month ago all of the movement is within the margin of error, with Moran going from 19 to 22%, McAuliffe going from 21 to 18%, and Deeds going from 14 to 15%.
The candidates all now have roughly equal swaths of the Democratic primary electorate who hold a favorable opinion of them- 34% for Moran, 32% for McAuliffie, and 31% for Deeds. McAuliffe's negatives, at 29%, are almost twice as high as the other two candidates. 15% have an unfavorable opinion of Moran and 12% say the same about Deeds.
There is a little more separation in the contest for Lieutenant Governor this month. Jody Wagner is now leading with 21% with all three of her opponents- Jon Bowerbank, Pat Edmonson, and Michael Signer- lagging at 4%.
Full results here
Brian Moran has moved into a slight lead at 22%, with Terry McAuliffe at 18%, and Creigh Deeds at 15%. Compared to a month ago all of the movement is within the margin of error, with Moran going from 19 to 22%, McAuliffe going from 21 to 18%, and Deeds going from 14 to 15%.
The candidates all now have roughly equal swaths of the Democratic primary electorate who hold a favorable opinion of them- 34% for Moran, 32% for McAuliffie, and 31% for Deeds. McAuliffe's negatives, at 29%, are almost twice as high as the other two candidates. 15% have an unfavorable opinion of Moran and 12% say the same about Deeds.
There is a little more separation in the contest for Lieutenant Governor this month. Jody Wagner is now leading with 21% with all three of her opponents- Jon Bowerbank, Pat Edmonson, and Michael Signer- lagging at 4%.
Full results here
How is Burr doing with African Americans?
Congressional Quarterly has a story looking at Richard Burr's outreach to African Americans. Is it paying off?
Our data gives mixed messages. Only 16% of black voters expressed approval for his job performance on our last poll. In April 2007 we found Elizabeth Dole getting good reviews from 28% of blacks in the state . Despite that decent standing for a Republican, exit polls last fall showed Dole receiving only 1% of the black vote against Kay Hagan. So that respect she had earned from some African American voters after the first four years of her team did not end up translating into much of any support at the polls.
Our last poll found Burr getting 8% of the black vote against a generic Democratic candidate, a more standard level of support for a Republican candidate. But against Elaine Marshall he gets 17% of the black vote, against Cal Cunningham he gets 23%, against Jim Neal he gets 17%, and against Roy Cooper he gets 12%. The fact that all the potential Democratic candidates are under performing with African Americans relative to the generic ballot speaks to the fact that the eventual nominee will have to do at least some work to reach out to black voters and not just take their support for granted.
Taking everything together I don't really see any indication that Burr's current standing with black voters is strong enough to keep his Democratic opponent next year from earning 90% or more of the African American vote like most Democratic candidates do but I guess we'll see.
Our data gives mixed messages. Only 16% of black voters expressed approval for his job performance on our last poll. In April 2007 we found Elizabeth Dole getting good reviews from 28% of blacks in the state . Despite that decent standing for a Republican, exit polls last fall showed Dole receiving only 1% of the black vote against Kay Hagan. So that respect she had earned from some African American voters after the first four years of her team did not end up translating into much of any support at the polls.
Our last poll found Burr getting 8% of the black vote against a generic Democratic candidate, a more standard level of support for a Republican candidate. But against Elaine Marshall he gets 17% of the black vote, against Cal Cunningham he gets 23%, against Jim Neal he gets 17%, and against Roy Cooper he gets 12%. The fact that all the potential Democratic candidates are under performing with African Americans relative to the generic ballot speaks to the fact that the eventual nominee will have to do at least some work to reach out to black voters and not just take their support for granted.
Taking everything together I don't really see any indication that Burr's current standing with black voters is strong enough to keep his Democratic opponent next year from earning 90% or more of the African American vote like most Democratic candidates do but I guess we'll see.
Monday, March 30, 2009
The AAPOR Primaries Report
AAPOR has its report out today on what went wrong with the polling in some of the early primary states last year. Most of the attention is being given to the findings in New Hampshire, where we didn't poll, but there's also some discussion about Wisconsin and South Carolina where we did.
We were actually the most accurate pollster for the Democratic primary in both of those states but we still underestimated Barack Obama's support. For us I'm pretty sure the culprit was poor weighting. We were using a turnout model predicated too much on past elections, not sufficiently taking into account the effect Obama's unique candidacy was having on the demography of the electorate. That led to us substantially undersampling the Obama friendly group of voters under 30 in both Wisconsin and South Carolina, and in South Carolina it also led to us underestimating the African American share of the electorate.
We made adjustments on those counts for the rest of the primary season that worked pretty well in all but one of the final six contests we polled.
Last year was a unique election cycle and I think pollsters who were able to adapt to changing realities over the course of the contest and not just fall into the trap of doing what they were accustomed to in the past ended up being pretty accurate by the end.
We were actually the most accurate pollster for the Democratic primary in both of those states but we still underestimated Barack Obama's support. For us I'm pretty sure the culprit was poor weighting. We were using a turnout model predicated too much on past elections, not sufficiently taking into account the effect Obama's unique candidacy was having on the demography of the electorate. That led to us substantially undersampling the Obama friendly group of voters under 30 in both Wisconsin and South Carolina, and in South Carolina it also led to us underestimating the African American share of the electorate.
We made adjustments on those counts for the rest of the primary season that worked pretty well in all but one of the final six contests we polled.
Last year was a unique election cycle and I think pollsters who were able to adapt to changing realities over the course of the contest and not just fall into the trap of doing what they were accustomed to in the past ended up being pretty accurate by the end.
Reviewing our 2010 Polling
Here's a summary of all of our polling on 2010 Senate races involving folks who have not explicitly ruled out running (to my knowledge) ranked in order of the seat's likelihood to change hands based on initial horse race numbers from the hypothetical contests:
| State | Democrat | Republican | Margin for Incumbent Party |
| | Robin Carnahan | Sarah Steelman | -11 |
| | Beau Biden | Mike Castle | -8 |
| | Roy Cooper | Richard Burr | -5 |
| | Paul Hodes | Charlie Bass | -3 |
| | Michael Bennet | Bill Owens | -3 |
| | John Sharp | | -3 |
| | Paul Hodes | John Sununu | -2 |
| | Robin Carnahan | Roy Blunt | -1 |
| | Bill White | | +1 |
| | Lee Fisher | Rob Portman | +2 |
| | Bill White | David Dewhurst | +5 |
| | Bill White | Greg Abbott | +6 |
| | Thurbert Baker | Johnny Isakson | +6 |
| | John Sharp | David Dewhurst | +6 |
| | Elaine Marshall | Richard Burr | +8 |
| | John Sharp | Greg Abbott | +8 |
| | Jennifer Brunner | Rob Portman | +8 |
| | Jim Marshall | Johnny Isakson | +9 |
| | Blanche Lincoln | Tim Griffin | +9 |
| | Michael Bennet | Tom Tancredo | +9 |
| | Blanche Lincoln | Gilbert Baker | +11 |
| | Jim Neal | Richard Burr | +14 |
| | Cal Cunningham | Richard Burr | +19 |
Friday, March 27, 2009
Next Week...
-We're going to have our monthly look at the Democratic contest in Virginia. I kind of thought Terry McAuliffe would be pulling away by now because of his resources advantage, so I guess we'll see if there's any truth to that or not.
-Thinking a week ahead, any thoughts on what we should poll next weekend for release the first week of April? Nothing is totally jumping out so your suggestions are welcome.
-Thinking a week ahead, any thoughts on what we should poll next weekend for release the first week of April? Nothing is totally jumping out so your suggestions are welcome.
McClatchy Papers Popular with the Public
There hasn't been much other than bad news at the state's two biggest papers over the last few months so here's a little good news for the folks at the Raleigh News&Observer and Charlotte Observer- they're more popular within their coverage areas than just about any politician in the state.
Statewide 31% of voters have a favorable opinion of the News&Observer with 15% viewing it negatively. But in the Triangle the numbers are much better, with 63% of respondents having a positive take compared to 16% dissenting.
There is a pretty significant party divide in those numbers, with 72% of Democrats but only 51% of Republicans across the region giving the paper good reviews. 67% of independents are positive as well. Somewhat surprisingly older voters, the most reliable paper readers, give the N&O its lowest marks at 56/22, although that could simply be a reflection of folks over 65 being more conservative.
The Charlotte Observer's overall numbers are 25/16, but within the greater Charlotte region they're 47/33.
There is actually much less of a political divide for the Observer than there is for the N&O. 50% of Democrats and 51% of Republicans alike have a positive opinion of the paper. Across ideological lines 50% of liberals and 46% of moderates and conservatives give the paper good reviews.
Barack Obama's getting the best statewide approval ratings of any of the major politicians in North Carolina right now with a net review of +13. At +47 for the N&O and +14 for the Observer, they're both beating that. The newspaper industry may be having a hard time but it looks like voters may still have more universally warm feelings for their papers than their politicians.
Full results here.
Statewide 31% of voters have a favorable opinion of the News&Observer with 15% viewing it negatively. But in the Triangle the numbers are much better, with 63% of respondents having a positive take compared to 16% dissenting.
There is a pretty significant party divide in those numbers, with 72% of Democrats but only 51% of Republicans across the region giving the paper good reviews. 67% of independents are positive as well. Somewhat surprisingly older voters, the most reliable paper readers, give the N&O its lowest marks at 56/22, although that could simply be a reflection of folks over 65 being more conservative.
The Charlotte Observer's overall numbers are 25/16, but within the greater Charlotte region they're 47/33.
There is actually much less of a political divide for the Observer than there is for the N&O. 50% of Democrats and 51% of Republicans alike have a positive opinion of the paper. Across ideological lines 50% of liberals and 46% of moderates and conservatives give the paper good reviews.
Barack Obama's getting the best statewide approval ratings of any of the major politicians in North Carolina right now with a net review of +13. At +47 for the N&O and +14 for the Observer, they're both beating that. The newspaper industry may be having a hard time but it looks like voters may still have more universally warm feelings for their papers than their politicians.
Full results here.
Impact of Newspaper Endorsements limited in NC
Last year when Pat McCrory was endorsed by many North Carolina newspapers that usually endorse Democrats for Governor, his campaign put a lot of resources into running television ads and otherwise bringing attention to them. But PPP's newest survey finds that most voters don't care.
69% of folks in the state say that who newspapers recommend has minimal or no effect on their voting choices. 20% say they have a moderate impact and just 11% say their influence is significant.
Perhaps not surprisingly given that many of the major papers in the state are often accused of liberal bias, conservatives put the least stock in newspaper endorsements, with 75% saying they have minimal or no impact on their votes. For moderates it's 66% and liberals it's 58%.
The numbers are pretty steady across every region of North Carolina, giving no indication that any particular papers are more or less influential within their coverage areas than others.
Political candidates certainly would always rather have the major newspaper endorsements than not...but it would appear their effect on the outcome of contests is limited.
Full results here.
69% of folks in the state say that who newspapers recommend has minimal or no effect on their voting choices. 20% say they have a moderate impact and just 11% say their influence is significant.
Perhaps not surprisingly given that many of the major papers in the state are often accused of liberal bias, conservatives put the least stock in newspaper endorsements, with 75% saying they have minimal or no impact on their votes. For moderates it's 66% and liberals it's 58%.
The numbers are pretty steady across every region of North Carolina, giving no indication that any particular papers are more or less influential within their coverage areas than others.
Political candidates certainly would always rather have the major newspaper endorsements than not...but it would appear their effect on the outcome of contests is limited.
Full results here.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Who Lincoln needs to win over
Yesterday we showed approval ratings for Blanche Lincoln that left a little bit to be desired.
One thing holding her back right now is that interestingly, 26% of the people in the state who approve of Barack Obama's job performance either disapprove of Lincoln's or have no opinion about it. You wouldn't necessarily expect that in a place where the President fared poorly last fall and Lincoln has twice been elected to statewide office. That group of voters is 34% African American- more than twice the black percentage of the population- so that may be a constituency she needs to shore up her support with a little bit.
Another group she could use some help with is the 11% of voters who have a positive opinion of both Mike Beebe and Mark Pryor but not of her. That group is overwhelmingly white and disproportionately over 65. It is pretty diverse politically, with 37% of them identifying as Democrats, 32% as Republicans, and 31% as independents. Beebe will certainly be a strong vote getter at the top of the ticket next year and the more Lincoln can align herself with him the better off she's going to be.
I think Lincoln as a Senator is going to end up being like Mary Landrieu next door- someone who the Republicans think they have a chance of taking out every cycle, but who manages to just keep on surviving.
One thing holding her back right now is that interestingly, 26% of the people in the state who approve of Barack Obama's job performance either disapprove of Lincoln's or have no opinion about it. You wouldn't necessarily expect that in a place where the President fared poorly last fall and Lincoln has twice been elected to statewide office. That group of voters is 34% African American- more than twice the black percentage of the population- so that may be a constituency she needs to shore up her support with a little bit.
Another group she could use some help with is the 11% of voters who have a positive opinion of both Mike Beebe and Mark Pryor but not of her. That group is overwhelmingly white and disproportionately over 65. It is pretty diverse politically, with 37% of them identifying as Democrats, 32% as Republicans, and 31% as independents. Beebe will certainly be a strong vote getter at the top of the ticket next year and the more Lincoln can align herself with him the better off she's going to be.
I think Lincoln as a Senator is going to end up being like Mary Landrieu next door- someone who the Republicans think they have a chance of taking out every cycle, but who manages to just keep on surviving.
Burr's issues with a couple key voter blocs
PPP and Civitas have now both shown Richard Burr trailing in a hypothetical contest against Roy Cooper.
Burr is struggling with a couple of key demographics that he must perform well with if he's going to get reelected.
The first is conservative Democrats, the sort of folks who throughout the years elected Democratic Governors and legislators while also consistently voting for Republican Presidential candidates and Jesse Helms. With the state's significant Democratic registration advantage, Burr will need to win over a lot of those voters to get reelected. However, his approval rating with that group right now is only 30% in our latest poll. By comparison 67% of them like the job Barack Obama's doing, even though it's likely many of them crossed over to vote for John McCain last fall. That standing is not going to be good enough to get Burr reelected, particularly if Roy Cooper is the nominee. Our polling back in December found that Cooper would likely pull in more of the white Democratic vote in the state than either Obama, Bev Perdue, or Kay Hagan did in 2008.
The second group Burr is struggling to gain the level of support he needs from is moderate Republicans. His approval rating with them is 49%. Burr can't even start to think about pulling over moderate Democrats until he gets the ones within his own party in line, and for now it appears he has some work to do with a majority of those voters. Burr's overall approval from moderates across the party spectrum is just 26%, and given that those folks more often than not are going to hold the balance of power in North Carolina elections he'll have to improve that standing a lot.
It's a little more than 19 months until November 2010 and certainly Burr's position could be solidified by then. But right now he looks to be one of the two or three most vulnerable incumbents in the country.
Burr is struggling with a couple of key demographics that he must perform well with if he's going to get reelected.
The first is conservative Democrats, the sort of folks who throughout the years elected Democratic Governors and legislators while also consistently voting for Republican Presidential candidates and Jesse Helms. With the state's significant Democratic registration advantage, Burr will need to win over a lot of those voters to get reelected. However, his approval rating with that group right now is only 30% in our latest poll. By comparison 67% of them like the job Barack Obama's doing, even though it's likely many of them crossed over to vote for John McCain last fall. That standing is not going to be good enough to get Burr reelected, particularly if Roy Cooper is the nominee. Our polling back in December found that Cooper would likely pull in more of the white Democratic vote in the state than either Obama, Bev Perdue, or Kay Hagan did in 2008.
The second group Burr is struggling to gain the level of support he needs from is moderate Republicans. His approval rating with them is 49%. Burr can't even start to think about pulling over moderate Democrats until he gets the ones within his own party in line, and for now it appears he has some work to do with a majority of those voters. Burr's overall approval from moderates across the party spectrum is just 26%, and given that those folks more often than not are going to hold the balance of power in North Carolina elections he'll have to improve that standing a lot.
It's a little more than 19 months until November 2010 and certainly Burr's position could be solidified by then. But right now he looks to be one of the two or three most vulnerable incumbents in the country.
From the Mailbag...
A couple gems for you today.
The first is one of the best e-mails we've ever gotten. We're accused of being on the take for Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, but also of being 'partisan hacks' in the same e-mail. Doesn't it have to be one or the other?
Interestingly this came during business hours from the state e-mail address of someone in Georgia. Sonny Perdue, if you need any help finding under productive positions to cut in tough budget times this might be one of them. The e-mail:
The second one comes from a North Carolinian and I post it here as a reminder of who Republican politicians have to pander to during primaries in this state, and why it makes it harder for them to win general elections:
The first is one of the best e-mails we've ever gotten. We're accused of being on the take for Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, but also of being 'partisan hacks' in the same e-mail. Doesn't it have to be one or the other?
Interestingly this came during business hours from the state e-mail address of someone in Georgia. Sonny Perdue, if you need any help finding under productive positions to cut in tough budget times this might be one of them. The e-mail:
From: Rhondre Hall [mailto:Rhondre.Hall@DOR.GA.GOV]
Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2009 4:26 PM
To: Jensen, Tom
Subject: The Obama vs Palin Poll
I find your study biased against Governor Palin. First, of all it is too early to be doing a poll for the 2012 presidential contest and you are obviously working for either Romney or Huckabee. The poll is garbage unless you also do a comparison of other potential nominees. Mr. Romney recently won the CPAC straw poll so I would be interested to see a poll done with a Obama vs Romney hypothetical matchup and a Obama vs Huckabee. McCain was right not to pick Romney for VP. I watched the primaries and he is such a fake and you can see right through him. Also, it would be wise to ask potential 2012 voters the question whether or not they would vote for a Mormon for President. I would be interested to see that number. Until, you can be an objective force in politics and not a partisan hack, please go away Mr. Jensen.
Thanks,
Rhondre Hall
The second one comes from a North Carolinian and I post it here as a reminder of who Republican politicians have to pander to during primaries in this state, and why it makes it harder for them to win general elections:
From: jmcdowell [mailto:jmcdowell4@triad.rr.com]
Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2009 6:59 PM
To: PPP Information
Subject: Polling
What a gathering of lying, liberal, and misleading sons of bitches. I love your polling against Rush Limbaugh. Rush could probably have a bowel movement smarter than all of you ragheaded, muslim, chicago thug loving bastards at this phony group. Rush scares you socialist assholes to the core. I noticed how many dems were polled. If Rush has the so called disapproval ratings, why does he have so many listeners in NC? Why has he been on WPTF 680, WSJS 600, and many others in NC since about 1988?
You lying bastards, you can poll just the libs in chapel hill and raliegh and come up with anything you want. I love what you lying scumbags are doing. carville, begalla, and greenberg thought they had a great idea last fall and would take on the Gorilla of talk radio. I see they called off the dogs after they learned the audience grew to unprecedented numbers for EL Rushbo. Please keep up the lying because you are growing his audience.
This phony group of pathetic imbeciles proves the gene pool needs and enema.
Have a nice day and screw all of you assholes.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Civitas Cooper-Burr Poll
Civitas took a gander at the Roy Cooper-Richard Burr contest and found very similar results to what we got in December. We had Cooper up 39-34 while they have him up 41-38.
There are some pretty bad signs for Burr within the Civitas numbers. For instance 21% of Democrats are undecided in the hypothetical contest while only 14% of Republicans are. Most of those folks would end up supporting Cooper.
Democrats have a large advantage in North Carolina when it comes to both party registration and identification. That means for a Republican to win statewide he needs to get considerably more crossover support than his opponent and win the independents. But in this poll Cooper has a narrow advantage with unaffiliated voters and the two get almost equal levels of crossover support with 13% of Democrats going for Burr and 10% of Republicans supporting Cooper.
Cooper should get in the race. He will never have this clear an opportunity to move up. He could wait to run for Governor in 2016 but it's likely there would be a much more contentious path to the Democratic nomination. The Senate nod, on the other hand, appears to be his for the taking. And Burr's numbers are so weak there's no doubt he's about as beatable an incumbent as you're ever going to find who has no serious ethics issues.
Besides, if Cooper goes up to Washington and hates it he could still run for Governor in 2016 and that would likely be a field clearer on the Democratic side after a term in the Senate. Jon Corzine made that transition four years ago without even finishing his six years.
There's no doubt a Cooper candidacy is the best thing that could happen for the Democrats...and politically I don't think there's a lot of doubt it's the best thing for Cooper. Can't speak for family considerations, etc.
There are some pretty bad signs for Burr within the Civitas numbers. For instance 21% of Democrats are undecided in the hypothetical contest while only 14% of Republicans are. Most of those folks would end up supporting Cooper.
Democrats have a large advantage in North Carolina when it comes to both party registration and identification. That means for a Republican to win statewide he needs to get considerably more crossover support than his opponent and win the independents. But in this poll Cooper has a narrow advantage with unaffiliated voters and the two get almost equal levels of crossover support with 13% of Democrats going for Burr and 10% of Republicans supporting Cooper.
Cooper should get in the race. He will never have this clear an opportunity to move up. He could wait to run for Governor in 2016 but it's likely there would be a much more contentious path to the Democratic nomination. The Senate nod, on the other hand, appears to be his for the taking. And Burr's numbers are so weak there's no doubt he's about as beatable an incumbent as you're ever going to find who has no serious ethics issues.
Besides, if Cooper goes up to Washington and hates it he could still run for Governor in 2016 and that would likely be a field clearer on the Democratic side after a term in the Senate. Jon Corzine made that transition four years ago without even finishing his six years.
There's no doubt a Cooper candidacy is the best thing that could happen for the Democrats...and politically I don't think there's a lot of doubt it's the best thing for Cooper. Can't speak for family considerations, etc.
Perspective on Transit Polling
As I pointed out yesterday, a new survey from the Regional Transportation Alliance found 58% support for a quarter cent sales tax for transit projects in the Triangle.
If such a referendum ever actually gets on the ballot, I think support will be even greater than that.
In May 2007 a poll on the Mecklenburg transit sales tax repeal showed 57% of respondents in support of keeping the tax. Another poll in August showed 52% support. But when they actually had the vote in November a much larger swath of the population, 70%, voted to continue the tax.
Why is that? Transit funding is an unusual instance where the interests of the growth lobby and progressives are generally in line. That means there are a lot of resources, both monetary and grassroots, available to support referendums on transit funding. The opposition is generally less organized, less well funded, and less able to put together the sort of coalition they would need to defeat the funding. And when the pro-transit side is able to run a stronger campaign you see the sort of balloon support from preliminary polling to election day that you saw in Charlotte two years ago.
Barring some unforeseen circumstances, I expect you would see the same thing happen in the Triangle.
If such a referendum ever actually gets on the ballot, I think support will be even greater than that.
In May 2007 a poll on the Mecklenburg transit sales tax repeal showed 57% of respondents in support of keeping the tax. Another poll in August showed 52% support. But when they actually had the vote in November a much larger swath of the population, 70%, voted to continue the tax.
Why is that? Transit funding is an unusual instance where the interests of the growth lobby and progressives are generally in line. That means there are a lot of resources, both monetary and grassroots, available to support referendums on transit funding. The opposition is generally less organized, less well funded, and less able to put together the sort of coalition they would need to defeat the funding. And when the pro-transit side is able to run a stronger campaign you see the sort of balloon support from preliminary polling to election day that you saw in Charlotte two years ago.
Barring some unforeseen circumstances, I expect you would see the same thing happen in the Triangle.
Where NC gets its news...and the implications for campaigns
Katherine's poll earlier this week showed that for 56% of North Carolinians television is their main source for news, as opposed to newspapers or the internet.
That's just another reminder why you need to have the resources to run a serious media campaign if you're going to win a race for statewide office. Showing up in Podunk, NC and getting a story about yourself in the local paper just isn't going to reach the folks in the way you need it to, nor are letters to the editor, or any other sort of earned print media that lesser funded candidates often hope to be able to use to effectively get their message out.
The preference for TV news is particularly strong among Republicans with 63% of them saying that's where they go. Fred Smith may have learned that lesson the hard way in the primary against Pat McCrory last year.
There are also indications within the poll that point to the unfortunate possibility of a newspaperless society further down the road...while 45% of senior citizens get their news from a paper that drops gradually with every age group, all the way down to 20% for those polled under the age of 30.
A newspaperless society is also likely to be a dumber society, since most television news coverage does not have nearly the depth and level of understanding that newspapers provide.
But the world moves on...
That's just another reminder why you need to have the resources to run a serious media campaign if you're going to win a race for statewide office. Showing up in Podunk, NC and getting a story about yourself in the local paper just isn't going to reach the folks in the way you need it to, nor are letters to the editor, or any other sort of earned print media that lesser funded candidates often hope to be able to use to effectively get their message out.
The preference for TV news is particularly strong among Republicans with 63% of them saying that's where they go. Fred Smith may have learned that lesson the hard way in the primary against Pat McCrory last year.
There are also indications within the poll that point to the unfortunate possibility of a newspaperless society further down the road...while 45% of senior citizens get their news from a paper that drops gradually with every age group, all the way down to 20% for those polled under the age of 30.
A newspaperless society is also likely to be a dumber society, since most television news coverage does not have nearly the depth and level of understanding that newspapers provide.
But the world moves on...
Lincoln's numbers: good but not great
PPP's newest survey finds Blanche Lincoln not necessarily in danger of losing reelection next year, but certainly not unbeatable either.
45% of voters in the state approve of her job performance, with 40% dissenting. Those numbers place her at about the median of the Senators whose approval ratings PPP has gauged since last summer.
Lincoln is struggling with independent voters in the state, 50% of whom say they disapprove of her work compared to only 31% approving. Her numbers are about as polarized along party lines as you would expect, with 73% of Democrats but only 22% of Republicans giving her good marks.
In hypothetical contests with former US Attorney Tim Griffin and state senator Gilbert Baker, Lincoln leads 46-38 and 48-37 respectively. Griffin and Baker each function basically as the generic Republican candidate, since neither of them has very much statewide name recognition. 58% of voters have no opinion about Griffin and 55% say the same about Baker.
Allocate the undecideds proportionately in those contests and you find Lincoln getting 54-56% of the vote, very much in line with what she earned in both 1998 and 2004. That would seem to be an indication that Lincoln hasn't reached an entrenched/unbeatable sort of status after a couple of terms that Mark Pryor would seem to have, but she isn't necessarily in grave danger either.
Whether this becomes a top tier race or not next year may come down to a matter of resources. Republicans will have to spend a lot of money to keep open seats in New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Florida and possibly Pennsylvania if Arlen Specter loses in the primary. They also need to play a fair amount of defense in North Carolina and Kentucky. So that's a lot of seats they have to hold on to before they start going on the offensive. Arkansas would certainly seem to be at the top of the list along with Connecticut and Nevada as states where Republicans would have at least some semblance of a chance to take out a Democratic incumbent but whether they decide to make that investment or not remains to be seen. If they don't Lincoln's numbers are solid enough that she should get reelected fairly easily.
Full results here
45% of voters in the state approve of her job performance, with 40% dissenting. Those numbers place her at about the median of the Senators whose approval ratings PPP has gauged since last summer.
Lincoln is struggling with independent voters in the state, 50% of whom say they disapprove of her work compared to only 31% approving. Her numbers are about as polarized along party lines as you would expect, with 73% of Democrats but only 22% of Republicans giving her good marks.
In hypothetical contests with former US Attorney Tim Griffin and state senator Gilbert Baker, Lincoln leads 46-38 and 48-37 respectively. Griffin and Baker each function basically as the generic Republican candidate, since neither of them has very much statewide name recognition. 58% of voters have no opinion about Griffin and 55% say the same about Baker.
Allocate the undecideds proportionately in those contests and you find Lincoln getting 54-56% of the vote, very much in line with what she earned in both 1998 and 2004. That would seem to be an indication that Lincoln hasn't reached an entrenched/unbeatable sort of status after a couple of terms that Mark Pryor would seem to have, but she isn't necessarily in grave danger either.
Whether this becomes a top tier race or not next year may come down to a matter of resources. Republicans will have to spend a lot of money to keep open seats in New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Florida and possibly Pennsylvania if Arlen Specter loses in the primary. They also need to play a fair amount of defense in North Carolina and Kentucky. So that's a lot of seats they have to hold on to before they start going on the offensive. Arkansas would certainly seem to be at the top of the list along with Connecticut and Nevada as states where Republicans would have at least some semblance of a chance to take out a Democratic incumbent but whether they decide to make that investment or not remains to be seen. If they don't Lincoln's numbers are solid enough that she should get reelected fairly easily.
Full results here
Voters' Cable News Preferences
By Katherine Rumbaugh, PPP Spring Fellow
This week, we tested the favorability of the big three of cable news networks with North Carolinians: CNN, FOX News, and MSNBC.
CNN: 57/25
FOX News: 52/31
MSNBC: 42/28
We also tested which network voters trust the most for fair and accurate reporting of political news and found that voters are more or less split between conservative-leaning FOX News (42%) and the more moderate CNN (39%). MSNBC, the most liberal-leaning of the three, ranked third at 16%.
Among liberals, 78% have a favorable opinion of CNN, compared to 68% percent for MSNBC. 73% of conservatives view FOX News favorably.
Unsurprisingly, 72% of Republicans trust FOX News for their political coverage, and 54% of Democrats prefer CNN. Independents are about equally split between FOX (39%) and CNN (40%).
For financial news, CNN edges FOX News 34% to 30%. Overall, 19% of voters prefer MSNBC for business news, but among the 18-29 age group, 45% prefer its financial coverage - well over CNN (15%) and FOX (25%).
So overall, CNN is winning among liberals and FOX News gets the conservative viewership. Up til now, MSNBC is lagging behind among North Carolina voters, but if it keeps up with its coverage of the economy and young people keep watching, MSNBC could increase viewership in the state.
Full results here.
This week, we tested the favorability of the big three of cable news networks with North Carolinians: CNN, FOX News, and MSNBC.
CNN: 57/25
FOX News: 52/31
MSNBC: 42/28
We also tested which network voters trust the most for fair and accurate reporting of political news and found that voters are more or less split between conservative-leaning FOX News (42%) and the more moderate CNN (39%). MSNBC, the most liberal-leaning of the three, ranked third at 16%.
Among liberals, 78% have a favorable opinion of CNN, compared to 68% percent for MSNBC. 73% of conservatives view FOX News favorably.
Unsurprisingly, 72% of Republicans trust FOX News for their political coverage, and 54% of Democrats prefer CNN. Independents are about equally split between FOX (39%) and CNN (40%).
For financial news, CNN edges FOX News 34% to 30%. Overall, 19% of voters prefer MSNBC for business news, but among the 18-29 age group, 45% prefer its financial coverage - well over CNN (15%) and FOX (25%).
So overall, CNN is winning among liberals and FOX News gets the conservative viewership. Up til now, MSNBC is lagging behind among North Carolina voters, but if it keeps up with its coverage of the economy and young people keep watching, MSNBC could increase viewership in the state.
Full results here.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
A Letter to Rush Limbaugh
Dear Rush,
I heard you saw our Arkansas and North Carolina polls about you yesterday, and although I know you're putting up a tough facade it's pretty clear your feelings are hurt or you wouldn't be talking about it on the air.
Now as you point out, we are liberals, and because we're liberals we are of course compassionate people. We don't want to hurt people's feelings, Rush. Not even yours.
So here's our offer to you. We know you want us to poll a state, and find out that you're more popular than Obama there and that a majority of the people in it like you. You might have thought Arkansas was that state, given that the President lost it by 20 points last fall, but I guess not. So just pick a state you want us to poll where you think you'll get good numbers and we'll poll it. Just let us know.
Love,
Tom
I heard you saw our Arkansas and North Carolina polls about you yesterday, and although I know you're putting up a tough facade it's pretty clear your feelings are hurt or you wouldn't be talking about it on the air.
Now as you point out, we are liberals, and because we're liberals we are of course compassionate people. We don't want to hurt people's feelings, Rush. Not even yours.
So here's our offer to you. We know you want us to poll a state, and find out that you're more popular than Obama there and that a majority of the people in it like you. You might have thought Arkansas was that state, given that the President lost it by 20 points last fall, but I guess not. So just pick a state you want us to poll where you think you'll get good numbers and we'll poll it. Just let us know.
Love,
Tom
Transit Polling
A new survey out today from the Regional Transportation Alliance finds 58-38 support from Triangle voters for a quarter cent sales tax to fund transit projects. Voters support a half cent increase for the same purpose by the margin of 53-44.
That finding is pretty consistent with polling we did on this issue way back in December of 2007 when we found 55-37 support for a half cent hike that would pay for regional transportation projects. It's interesting to see that hasn't changed too much even with the downturn in the economy.
One thing both polls made clear is that Wake County voters are considerably less supportive of transit than those in Durham, who are considerably less supportive than those in Orange. That could lead to a pretty piecemeal system if some county's voters are willing to pay the bill and others aren't.
That finding is pretty consistent with polling we did on this issue way back in December of 2007 when we found 55-37 support for a half cent hike that would pay for regional transportation projects. It's interesting to see that hasn't changed too much even with the downturn in the economy.
One thing both polls made clear is that Wake County voters are considerably less supportive of transit than those in Durham, who are considerably less supportive than those in Orange. That could lead to a pretty piecemeal system if some county's voters are willing to pay the bill and others aren't.
Arkansas Approval Numbers
Barack Obama is in positive approval territory in Arkansas, but just barely. PPP finds 47% of voters in the state expressing support for his work so far with 45% disapproving.
Like in most states there's strong polarization along party lines when it comes to Obama's job performance with 80% of Democrats but only 18% of Republicans approving. Obama also gets poor reviews from independents, with 54% disapproving and just 32% in approval. Those weak numbers with unaffiliated voters have become a trend in PPP's polls, including a national survey last week that showed his numbers with that group at 41/50.
Women and African Americans approve of Obama's work, while he gets negative numbers from whites and men.
One politician whose popularity is unambiguously high is Governor Mike Beebe. With an approval number of 68% and just 20% disapproving, he has the best ratings of any politician PPP has polled on in the entire country over the last year. Beebe even has a 55% approval rating with Republicans. He should be close to unbeatable for reelection next year.
Mark Pryor also benefits from solid numbers with 54% of voters in the state expressing support for his job performacne and 30% dissenting.
We'll release numbers looking at Blanche Lincoln's standing tomorrow.
Full results here.
Like in most states there's strong polarization along party lines when it comes to Obama's job performance with 80% of Democrats but only 18% of Republicans approving. Obama also gets poor reviews from independents, with 54% disapproving and just 32% in approval. Those weak numbers with unaffiliated voters have become a trend in PPP's polls, including a national survey last week that showed his numbers with that group at 41/50.
Women and African Americans approve of Obama's work, while he gets negative numbers from whites and men.
One politician whose popularity is unambiguously high is Governor Mike Beebe. With an approval number of 68% and just 20% disapproving, he has the best ratings of any politician PPP has polled on in the entire country over the last year. Beebe even has a 55% approval rating with Republicans. He should be close to unbeatable for reelection next year.
Mark Pryor also benefits from solid numbers with 54% of voters in the state expressing support for his job performacne and 30% dissenting.
We'll release numbers looking at Blanche Lincoln's standing tomorrow.
Full results here.
Limbaugh gets poor numbers in North Carolina and Arkansas
New PPP surveys looking at the popularity of Rush Limbaugh in North Carolina and Arkansas find remarkably similar results, with only 31% of North Carolinians and 32% of folks in Arkansas holding a favorable opinion of the controversial talk radio host.
In North Carolina 27% of voters in the state believe that Limbaugh is the leading voice of the Republican Party. Interestingly the number of folks who think that is relatively equal along party lines- 30% of Democrats, 25% of Republicans, and 24% of independents hold that belief.
In some sense that speaks to the internal struggle Republicans have in North Carolina of finding the direction they should move the party in to overcome their recent losing streak in the state. The party needs to moderate its image to win, but a quarter of the party faithful see their voice as someone who's viewed dimly by 67% of self described moderates. How to keep that far right base happy while also trying to appeal more to voters in the center is a conundrum the party will have to figure out how to deal with to reach greater levels of success.
Other than Republicans (61%) and conservatives (56%) every demographic group that PPP tracks by ideology, party, region, gender, race, and age has a net negative opinion of Limbaugh. Only 26% of independents view him favorably, and even among conservatives 20% say they don't care for him.
In Arkansas 24% of the state's voters believe Limbaugh to be the voice of the party, and that view is held by 31% of respondents identifying as Republicans.
Full North Carolina Limbaugh numbers here.
In North Carolina 27% of voters in the state believe that Limbaugh is the leading voice of the Republican Party. Interestingly the number of folks who think that is relatively equal along party lines- 30% of Democrats, 25% of Republicans, and 24% of independents hold that belief.
In some sense that speaks to the internal struggle Republicans have in North Carolina of finding the direction they should move the party in to overcome their recent losing streak in the state. The party needs to moderate its image to win, but a quarter of the party faithful see their voice as someone who's viewed dimly by 67% of self described moderates. How to keep that far right base happy while also trying to appeal more to voters in the center is a conundrum the party will have to figure out how to deal with to reach greater levels of success.
Other than Republicans (61%) and conservatives (56%) every demographic group that PPP tracks by ideology, party, region, gender, race, and age has a net negative opinion of Limbaugh. Only 26% of independents view him favorably, and even among conservatives 20% say they don't care for him.
In Arkansas 24% of the state's voters believe Limbaugh to be the voice of the party, and that view is held by 31% of respondents identifying as Republicans.
Full North Carolina Limbaugh numbers here.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Tobacco issue has potential to hurt Burr
A Charlotte Observer story over the weekend points out that Richard Burr ranks second in Congress for receiving tobacco money.
I thought it would be interesting to take a look at our February poll and see how Burr's approval aligns with folks' opinions about the proposed smoking ban in the General Assembly.
The answer? Voters who don't have an opinion about Burr one way or the other- 25% of the electorate- are also the most supportive of banning smoking in public places.
Overall we found 64% of North Carolinians support the ban with 31% in opposition. But with the swath of the electorate that hasn't formed an opinion about Burr the numbers are 69% in favor of the smoking prohibition and just 26% opposed.
With the voters ambivalent about Burr pretty overwhelmingly not sympathetic to the tobacco lobby, it will be interesting to see if this becomes a liability in Burr's reelection campaign.
I thought it would be interesting to take a look at our February poll and see how Burr's approval aligns with folks' opinions about the proposed smoking ban in the General Assembly.
The answer? Voters who don't have an opinion about Burr one way or the other- 25% of the electorate- are also the most supportive of banning smoking in public places.
Overall we found 64% of North Carolinians support the ban with 31% in opposition. But with the swath of the electorate that hasn't formed an opinion about Burr the numbers are 69% in favor of the smoking prohibition and just 26% opposed.
With the voters ambivalent about Burr pretty overwhelmingly not sympathetic to the tobacco lobby, it will be interesting to see if this becomes a liability in Burr's reelection campaign.
Interesting Analysis from SSP
I pointed out in January that even though Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry got reelected by large margins last fall, they actually each under ran John McCain within their districts, something I felt was an indication Daniel Johnson and Roy Carter ran very strong campaigns even in defeat.
The good folks at Swing State Project took this analysis a step further and did it for the whole country, and I'd say the results are pretty interesting.
There were actually only 23 Republican members of the House in the country who did worse than John McCain within their districts. McHenry's performance relative to the party nominee was the sixth worst of any member of the GOP caucus.
That has a lot to do with what what a top notch challenger Johnson was for that district, but I think it also has some serious implications for McHenry's political future. Some have suggested him as a possible challenger to Kay Hagan in 2014 but it's hard to see how he would be a good candidate statewide when he underperforms in the swath of the state he already represents.
All that said the fact that Carter and Johnson were such strong candidates and still got creamed is a pretty clear indication these districts are completely unwinnable for Democrats in their current configuration. I think Democrats have probably maxed out the number of House seats they can win in North Carolina, but if there's another prospect it's Sue Myrick's district, not either of these.
The good folks at Swing State Project took this analysis a step further and did it for the whole country, and I'd say the results are pretty interesting.
There were actually only 23 Republican members of the House in the country who did worse than John McCain within their districts. McHenry's performance relative to the party nominee was the sixth worst of any member of the GOP caucus.
That has a lot to do with what what a top notch challenger Johnson was for that district, but I think it also has some serious implications for McHenry's political future. Some have suggested him as a possible challenger to Kay Hagan in 2014 but it's hard to see how he would be a good candidate statewide when he underperforms in the swath of the state he already represents.
All that said the fact that Carter and Johnson were such strong candidates and still got creamed is a pretty clear indication these districts are completely unwinnable for Democrats in their current configuration. I think Democrats have probably maxed out the number of House seats they can win in North Carolina, but if there's another prospect it's Sue Myrick's district, not either of these.
RIP Ann Arbor News
Exceptionally sad news about my home town paper.
I actually hated the Ann Arbor News, as I think many progressive people in town did, but the thought that a city of 120,000 and home of the University of Michigan would not have a daily newspaper is kind of unfathomable.
Things aren't going very well financially at our newspapers of record here in North Carolina either, but we're going to have some polling numbers later in the week about what the public thinks of the Charlotte Observer and Raleigh News&Observer that should at least warm the hearts of the surviving souls at those places a little bit.
I actually hated the Ann Arbor News, as I think many progressive people in town did, but the thought that a city of 120,000 and home of the University of Michigan would not have a daily newspaper is kind of unfathomable.
Things aren't going very well financially at our newspapers of record here in North Carolina either, but we're going to have some polling numbers later in the week about what the public thinks of the Charlotte Observer and Raleigh News&Observer that should at least warm the hearts of the surviving souls at those places a little bit.
Elon's Latest...
Elon's surprising poll results on gay marriage are getting a lot of attention. While a lot of focus has been on question wording, I'd be very interested to see the demographic composition of the poll, particularly by party, and crosstabs. I've always been pretty consistent that I think all publicly released polls should include those things. Beyond that I'm not getting into the debate.
I was actually more interested in Elon's release from Friday, which goes a long way toward explaining why Republicans have had trouble in recent elections with getting their message across. 56% of respondents approve of the job the General Assembly is doing with only 23% disapproving. Railing on the corruption of a body that is generally perceived positively by the public isn't a good election strategy. Democrats in the legislature also get reviews (53/26) than their Republican counterparts do (41/37).
Here's the problem for the GOP and the corruption issue, as I see it:
-First, you have to convince the voters that corruption is a problem.
-Then, you have to convince the voters it's the other guy's fault.
Voters know that they care about the economy or education. So when you use those things as major campaign issues half the work is already done. But if it's something- like corruption in Raleigh- that isn't automatically on voters' minds, it gives you twice as much work to do. Republicans need to overhaul and simplify their message about things that voters inherently are concerned about if they're going to have more success at the state level in North Carolina.
I don't really anticipate that happening though.
I was actually more interested in Elon's release from Friday, which goes a long way toward explaining why Republicans have had trouble in recent elections with getting their message across. 56% of respondents approve of the job the General Assembly is doing with only 23% disapproving. Railing on the corruption of a body that is generally perceived positively by the public isn't a good election strategy. Democrats in the legislature also get reviews (53/26) than their Republican counterparts do (41/37).
Here's the problem for the GOP and the corruption issue, as I see it:
-First, you have to convince the voters that corruption is a problem.
-Then, you have to convince the voters it's the other guy's fault.
Voters know that they care about the economy or education. So when you use those things as major campaign issues half the work is already done. But if it's something- like corruption in Raleigh- that isn't automatically on voters' minds, it gives you twice as much work to do. Republicans need to overhaul and simplify their message about things that voters inherently are concerned about if they're going to have more success at the state level in North Carolina.
I don't really anticipate that happening though.
NC voters prefer TV news over newspapers, online news
By Katherine Rumbaugh, PPP Spring Fellow
Even as technology progresses, print newspapers switch over to online versions, and more people turn to blogs and news websites, 56% of people in North Carolina report that the television is their favorite source for news.
This trend is, surprisingly, even stronger among the people who are supposed to be the most tech-savvy, the 18-29 age group; 65% of them report that the TV is their primary news source. Only 20% said they prefer reading an actual newspaper and 15% said they prefer online news.
Democrats are more likely to read a newspaper than Republicans, 63% of whom said they prefer TV news.
So, the idiot box is the most popular news source, and the most popular television news outlets are the ones with (in my opinion) some of the biggest idiots: cable news networks. 42% of respondents said they prefer cable news like CNN, FOX News, and MSNBC over regular broadcast networks (23%) and local TV networks (34%).
Between a national newspaper, like the NYT or WSJ, and a local paper, people overwhelmingly favor their local newspaper, 87% to 13%.
Among online news sources, the most popular are websites affiliated with newspapers, at 43%. That's a good sign for papers that might eventually have to switch to a solely online version. Blogs are only favored among about 6% for online news. That's probably because, at least so far, bloggers mostly comment on existing news rather than produce original reporting. Perhaps we need to step up our game?
Full results here
Even as technology progresses, print newspapers switch over to online versions, and more people turn to blogs and news websites, 56% of people in North Carolina report that the television is their favorite source for news.
This trend is, surprisingly, even stronger among the people who are supposed to be the most tech-savvy, the 18-29 age group; 65% of them report that the TV is their primary news source. Only 20% said they prefer reading an actual newspaper and 15% said they prefer online news.
Democrats are more likely to read a newspaper than Republicans, 63% of whom said they prefer TV news.
So, the idiot box is the most popular news source, and the most popular television news outlets are the ones with (in my opinion) some of the biggest idiots: cable news networks. 42% of respondents said they prefer cable news like CNN, FOX News, and MSNBC over regular broadcast networks (23%) and local TV networks (34%).
Between a national newspaper, like the NYT or WSJ, and a local paper, people overwhelmingly favor their local newspaper, 87% to 13%.
Among online news sources, the most popular are websites affiliated with newspapers, at 43%. That's a good sign for papers that might eventually have to switch to a solely online version. Blogs are only favored among about 6% for online news. That's probably because, at least so far, bloggers mostly comment on existing news rather than produce original reporting. Perhaps we need to step up our game?
Full results here
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Huh?
Some folks on the far right, not surprisingly, are unhappy that our poll this week showed nominating the Republicans nominating Sarah Palin in 2012 would likely lead to the largest landslide in a generation.
But this 'refutation' of the poll is just bizarre:
-The blogger states as authoritative fact that PPP is run by Stan Greenberg. That's one you have to put into the category of 'where do they come up with this stuff?' There is of course no citation for that 'fact,' which must have come out of thin air.
-He also claims the poll is biased because more Democrats were polled than Republicans. Uh, that's because there's a lot more Democrats in the country than Republicans. Republicans don't seem to understand that aspect of polling. Long time readers of the blog may recall Pat McCrory's nephew having similar difficulty last winter.
-The analysis concludes with 'Mr. Greenberg, you're busted.' I'm sure that is quite some news to Mr. Greenberg.
The ironic thing about Republicans being angry with this poll? The approval rating we found for President Obama was one of the lowest in a national survey that anyone's released over the last month. But we don't expect deluded wingers to let a few facts to get in their way.
But this 'refutation' of the poll is just bizarre:
-The blogger states as authoritative fact that PPP is run by Stan Greenberg. That's one you have to put into the category of 'where do they come up with this stuff?' There is of course no citation for that 'fact,' which must have come out of thin air.
-He also claims the poll is biased because more Democrats were polled than Republicans. Uh, that's because there's a lot more Democrats in the country than Republicans. Republicans don't seem to understand that aspect of polling. Long time readers of the blog may recall Pat McCrory's nephew having similar difficulty last winter.
-The analysis concludes with 'Mr. Greenberg, you're busted.' I'm sure that is quite some news to Mr. Greenberg.
The ironic thing about Republicans being angry with this poll? The approval rating we found for President Obama was one of the lowest in a national survey that anyone's released over the last month. But we don't expect deluded wingers to let a few facts to get in their way.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Next Week
-We're going to have an Arkansas poll looking at whether Blanche Lincoln really has anything to worry about or not. This was suggested by a blog commenter- we really do listen to your suggestions! I know I had said I thought we should poll Pennsylvania about Arlen Specter stuff but I believe Quinnipiac will have their monthly look there next week and we're trying to give you something different.
-Throughout the week we'll have the interesting results of a poll conducted by our spring fellow Katherine Rumbaugh about the North Carolina media landscape.
-And on Monday we'll have the numbers on how North Carolinians view Rush Limbaugh.
-Throughout the week we'll have the interesting results of a poll conducted by our spring fellow Katherine Rumbaugh about the North Carolina media landscape.
-And on Monday we'll have the numbers on how North Carolinians view Rush Limbaugh.
Hagan in Context
PPP's first look at Kay Hagan's approval rating finds 36% of voters in the state approving and 34% disapproving of her job performance.
Since last summer PPP has looked at approval ratings for 13 Senators across the country. Here's how they stack up:
Hagan's full numbers available here.
Since last summer PPP has looked at approval ratings for 13 Senators across the country. Here's how they stack up:
| Senator | Approval |
| Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) | 58/31 |
| Tom Carper (D-DE) | 57/26 |
| Kit Bond (R-MO) | 57/27 |
| John McCain (R-AZ) | 53/31 |
| Jim Webb (D-VA) | 44/33 |
| Bill Nelson (D-FL) | 42/29 |
| Kay Hagan (D-NC) | 36/34 |
| Ted Kaufman (D-DE) | 35/24 |
| Richard Burr (R-NC) | 35/32 |
| Michael Bennet (D-CO) | 33/21 |
| Johnny Isakson (R-GA) | 30/25 |
| George Voinovich (R-OH) | 30/38 |
| Mel Martinez (R-FL) | 23/37 |
Hagan's full numbers available here.
Obama approval steady in North Carolina
PPP's monthly look at Barack Obama's approval rating in North Carolina finds his numbers pretty much unchanged from a month ago, with 53% of voters expressing support for his work so far and 40% saying they disapprove. The spread in February was 52/41.
The results are strongly polarized along party lines, with 84% of Democrats but only 15% of Republicans approving of his performance. Independents are split right down the middle with 46% approving and 46% disapproving. There is a strong ideological split among unaffiliated voters with 85% who describe themselves as liberals and 55% who identify as moderates giving Obama good marks while only 20% of conservative independents do.
Obama's numbers are in positive territory overall because of his strong numbers with moderates in general, as 65% of them approve with only 26% disapproving. For the most part in North Carolina if you have the support of the centrists you're going to be alright.
The groups that gave Obama the most support at the ballot box in November- women, young people, urban and suburban voters, African Americans, and those in the Triangle- predictably give Obama his best reviews. He's in negative territory with rural voters, whites, folks in the mountains and folks in the Triad.
Full results here
The results are strongly polarized along party lines, with 84% of Democrats but only 15% of Republicans approving of his performance. Independents are split right down the middle with 46% approving and 46% disapproving. There is a strong ideological split among unaffiliated voters with 85% who describe themselves as liberals and 55% who identify as moderates giving Obama good marks while only 20% of conservative independents do.
Obama's numbers are in positive territory overall because of his strong numbers with moderates in general, as 65% of them approve with only 26% disapproving. For the most part in North Carolina if you have the support of the centrists you're going to be alright.
The groups that gave Obama the most support at the ballot box in November- women, young people, urban and suburban voters, African Americans, and those in the Triangle- predictably give Obama his best reviews. He's in negative territory with rural voters, whites, folks in the mountains and folks in the Triad.
Full results here
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Perdue by party and ideology
There was a lot of consternation during the campaign last fall about whether Bev Perdue was giving liberal Democrats a reason to vote for her, and our analysis repeatedly showed that Libertarian opponent Michael Munger was pulling more support from folks also voting for Barack Obama than those voting for John McCain. That, along with his best statewide finish coming in Orange County, is a pretty good indication he was pulling from the left.
But since she took office Perdue is earning her highest level of popularity from liberal Democrats:
If there's a red flag for Perdue in these numbers it's the conservative Democrats. They were integral to the strong performance in eastern North Carolina that put her over the top last fall and she'll need to keep those folks in her corner moving forward. At the same time, only having 42% disapproval from moderate Republicans isn't bad and an indication that she's at least earning some support from the more moderate wing of the opposite party.
But since she took office Perdue is earning her highest level of popularity from liberal Democrats:
| Group | Perdue Approval |
| Liberal Democrats | 72/14 |
| Moderate Democrats | 68/14 |
| Conservative Democrats | 50/30 |
| Moderate Independents | 43/28 |
| Moderate Republicans | 29/42 |
| Conservative Republicans | 13/64 |
If there's a red flag for Perdue in these numbers it's the conservative Democrats. They were integral to the strong performance in eastern North Carolina that put her over the top last fall and she'll need to keep those folks in her corner moving forward. At the same time, only having 42% disapproval from moderate Republicans isn't bad and an indication that she's at least earning some support from the more moderate wing of the opposite party.
More on Obama's Bracket
Nate Silver has some interesting observations on Barack Obama's NCAA tournament bracket and his propensity for picking upsets that seems to have some relation to the electoral map.
Looking at the hard copy of Obama's bracket lends some more credence to the theory. There are seven instances where he picked one team to win a game, then crossed it out and picked another team and in five of those cases the change could conceivably have an electoral calculus to it:
-In the final he initially picked Louisville and then changed to UNC. North Carolina was one of the trio of the closest states last year, Kentucky certainly wasn't.
-In the semifinal he initially picked Pittsburgh and changed to UNC. Same thing as above.
-In a second round match he picked Marquette then changed it to Missouri. Missouri, along with North Carolina and Indiana, was part of the triumvirate of the swingiest states last year.
-In another he picked Xavier then changed it to Florida State. While Ohio and Florida are both swing states, Florida was closer last year and the 'Noles have a considerably larger fan base within their state than the Musketeers have within theirs.
-Another changed second round pick, from Clemson to Oklahoma, would not seem to have any political implications with both states dark red.
-In a first round pick he had UCLA winning, then changed it to Virginia Commonwealth. Virginia is likely to be quite competitive at the Presidential level moving forward while California is solidly Democratic.
-He changed from Oklahoma State to Tennessee, another red to red shift.
Do I actually think Obama's bracket was motivated by politics? No. As a good basketball fan he knows that FSU made the ACC final last weekend while Xavier couldn't make the A-10 final. I picked that upset too. And this Tar Heel alum certainly agrees that we're going to be cutting down the nets on Monday night in Detroit. But the relationship is interesting.
Looking at the hard copy of Obama's bracket lends some more credence to the theory. There are seven instances where he picked one team to win a game, then crossed it out and picked another team and in five of those cases the change could conceivably have an electoral calculus to it:
-In the final he initially picked Louisville and then changed to UNC. North Carolina was one of the trio of the closest states last year, Kentucky certainly wasn't.
-In the semifinal he initially picked Pittsburgh and changed to UNC. Same thing as above.
-In a second round match he picked Marquette then changed it to Missouri. Missouri, along with North Carolina and Indiana, was part of the triumvirate of the swingiest states last year.
-In another he picked Xavier then changed it to Florida State. While Ohio and Florida are both swing states, Florida was closer last year and the 'Noles have a considerably larger fan base within their state than the Musketeers have within theirs.
-Another changed second round pick, from Clemson to Oklahoma, would not seem to have any political implications with both states dark red.
-In a first round pick he had UCLA winning, then changed it to Virginia Commonwealth. Virginia is likely to be quite competitive at the Presidential level moving forward while California is solidly Democratic.
-He changed from Oklahoma State to Tennessee, another red to red shift.
Do I actually think Obama's bracket was motivated by politics? No. As a good basketball fan he knows that FSU made the ACC final last weekend while Xavier couldn't make the A-10 final. I picked that upset too. And this Tar Heel alum certainly agrees that we're going to be cutting down the nets on Monday night in Detroit. But the relationship is interesting.
Burr vs. the Generic Democrat
For the first time on our North Carolina tracking poll this month we tested Richard Burr against a generic Democrat in addition to an actual prospective opponent. Burr leads 42-38.
That's actually pretty good news for Democrats because 22% of Democrats report being undecided on the generic ballot question while only 12% of Republicans are. Some folks in the party reasonably want to see who the party's actual candidate is before committing to support them but it seems likely most Democratic voters would end up voting for whoever their nominee is.
Only 11% of Democrats say they're committed to voting for Burr against their party's candidate, and with the large Democratic registration and identification advantage in North Carolina most Republicans are going to need to earn around 20% of the Democratic vote to win statewide.
So far we have tested five prospective candidates against Burr for 2010 and only Roy Cooper has outperformed the generic Democratic ballot. Here's how the folks we've tested stack up:
That's actually pretty good news for Democrats because 22% of Democrats report being undecided on the generic ballot question while only 12% of Republicans are. Some folks in the party reasonably want to see who the party's actual candidate is before committing to support them but it seems likely most Democratic voters would end up voting for whoever their nominee is.
Only 11% of Democrats say they're committed to voting for Burr against their party's candidate, and with the large Democratic registration and identification advantage in North Carolina most Republicans are going to need to earn around 20% of the Democratic vote to win statewide.
So far we have tested five prospective candidates against Burr for 2010 and only Roy Cooper has outperformed the generic Democratic ballot. Here's how the folks we've tested stack up:
| Candidate | Margin Relative to Burr |
| Roy Cooper | +5 |
| Generic Democrat | -4 |
| Elaine Marshall | -8 |
| Heath Shuler | -11 |
| Jim Neal | -14 |
| Cal Cunningham | -19 |
Burr leads Marshall, approval still mediocre
PPP's monthly look at Richard Burr's approval rating finds it at 35/32, down from his peak of 41/34 four weeks ago. Burr has not been as visible in the last month as he was during February as a vocal opponent of the economic stimulus package.
Burr's numbers compare unfavorably to Elizabeth Dole's at the same point in the election cycle two years ago. She stood at 43/31.
In a hypothetical contest with Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Burr leads 43-35. Despite running for the Senate in 2002 and serving in statewide office for over ten years, a majority of North Carolina voters don't know enough about her to hold a positive or negative opinion. Among those who do, 28% say they view her favorably with 19% holding an unfavorable view of her.
PPP also tested Marshall against Dole two years ago and found her trailing 46-35.
One of Burr's key points of vulnerability moving toward 2010 is his lack of popularity with the moderate voters who often decide elections in North Carolina. He has just a 26% approval rating with voters who describe themselves that way ideologically, with 37% disapproving.
Full results here
Burr's numbers compare unfavorably to Elizabeth Dole's at the same point in the election cycle two years ago. She stood at 43/31.
In a hypothetical contest with Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Burr leads 43-35. Despite running for the Senate in 2002 and serving in statewide office for over ten years, a majority of North Carolina voters don't know enough about her to hold a positive or negative opinion. Among those who do, 28% say they view her favorably with 19% holding an unfavorable view of her.
PPP also tested Marshall against Dole two years ago and found her trailing 46-35.
One of Burr's key points of vulnerability moving toward 2010 is his lack of popularity with the moderate voters who often decide elections in North Carolina. He has just a 26% approval rating with voters who describe themselves that way ideologically, with 37% disapproving.
Full results here
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
NC voters support bullying bill
69% of North Carolina voters support a proposal in the legislature that would deal with school bullying.
That finding is consistent with a PPP survey from last summer that found 72% of folks in the state supported a controversial clause of the bill specifically dealing with protecting children from bullying based on sexual orientation.
The right wing noise machine killed the proposal last year, but PPP finds that even 55% of voters describing themselves as conservatives and 51% of Republicans support the proposal. This is a case where the loud voices of a small minority drowned out overall public opinion.
Support for the bill is overwhelming from liberals (91%) and moderates (73%) with every gender, age, race, and region group supporting it as well.
Full results here.
That finding is consistent with a PPP survey from last summer that found 72% of folks in the state supported a controversial clause of the bill specifically dealing with protecting children from bullying based on sexual orientation.
The right wing noise machine killed the proposal last year, but PPP finds that even 55% of voters describing themselves as conservatives and 51% of Republicans support the proposal. This is a case where the loud voices of a small minority drowned out overall public opinion.
Support for the bill is overwhelming from liberals (91%) and moderates (73%) with every gender, age, race, and region group supporting it as well.
Full results here.
NC voters oppose sick leave bill
Only 35% of North Carolinians support a proposal in the General Assembly to mandate employers give workers a certain amount of paid sick leave, PPP's newest survey finds.
Republicans (84%) and independents (71%) are particularly opposed to the bill, with Democrats supporting it by a narrow margin (51%).
African Americans and voters who identify themselves as liberals support the measure but beyond that every demographic group PPP tracks by gender, race, age, region, and ideology is opposed.
It appears most North Carolinians think that employee benefits should be determined by employers and employees on a case by case basis and not mandated from Raleigh.
Full results here
Republicans (84%) and independents (71%) are particularly opposed to the bill, with Democrats supporting it by a narrow margin (51%).
African Americans and voters who identify themselves as liberals support the measure but beyond that every demographic group PPP tracks by gender, race, age, region, and ideology is opposed.
It appears most North Carolinians think that employee benefits should be determined by employers and employees on a case by case basis and not mandated from Raleigh.
Full results here
How many electoral votes would Obama get against Palin?
Our new national survey pitting Barack Obama against Sarah Palin in a possible 2012 contest finds Obama leading Palin by 20 points. Obama beat John McCain by just 7 last fall, so it appears he would do 13 points better against Palin.
Palin's poor performance relative to McCain might not necessarily be uniformly spread across the 50 states, but just to get some idea of how many electoral votes Obama would get in a contest against Palin, let's look at the states McCain won by fewer than 13 points last fall:
-Missouri (McCain + .1) 11 EV's
-Montana (McCain + 2.3) 3 EV's
-Georgia (McCain +5.2) 15 EV's
-South Dakota (McCain +8.4) 3 EV's
-Arizona (McCain +8.5) 10 EV's
-North Dakota (McCain +8.6) 3 EV's
-South Carolina (McCain +9.0) 8 EV's
-Nebraska-1 (McCain +9.8) 1 EV
-Texas (McCain +11.8) 34 EV's
So Obama would win approximately 88 more electoral votes in a contest against Sarah Palin than he received against John McCain last fall. That would give him a 453-85 victory in the electoral college.
It's a long way until 2012, but it appears the Republicans nominating Palin would lead to the biggest landslide in a generation.
Full results here.
Palin's poor performance relative to McCain might not necessarily be uniformly spread across the 50 states, but just to get some idea of how many electoral votes Obama would get in a contest against Palin, let's look at the states McCain won by fewer than 13 points last fall:
-Missouri (McCain + .1) 11 EV's
-Montana (McCain + 2.3) 3 EV's
-Georgia (McCain +5.2) 15 EV's
-South Dakota (McCain +8.4) 3 EV's
-Arizona (McCain +8.5) 10 EV's
-North Dakota (McCain +8.6) 3 EV's
-South Carolina (McCain +9.0) 8 EV's
-Nebraska-1 (McCain +9.8) 1 EV
-Texas (McCain +11.8) 34 EV's
So Obama would win approximately 88 more electoral votes in a contest against Sarah Palin than he received against John McCain last fall. That would give him a 453-85 victory in the electoral college.
It's a long way until 2012, but it appears the Republicans nominating Palin would lead to the biggest landslide in a generation.
Full results here.
Obama would crush Palin
Several national polls of Republican voters since the election last fall have shown Sarah Palin as the top choice of the party faithful to be the GOP's nominee for President in 2012. But a new national PPP poll finds that nominating Palin could be a death wish for the party, with Barack Obama leading Palin 55-35 in a hypothetical contest.
The key reason Palin would lose to Obama by so much is that even though she might be the top choice for a certain segment of voters within her party, there's also a number of Republicans who say they would vote for Obama if their party nominated Palin. The Alaska Governor leads Obama just 66-17 among GOP voters. By comparison, John McCain beat Obama 90-9 with the party faithful. So Palin would be losing a lot of ground even with the base if she was the nominee.
Obama leads 89-7 with Democrats and has a more narrow 46-42 advantage with independents.
Despite his strong overall victory last year Obama actually lost the white vote 55-43. But it appears he would shore up his standing with that demographic in a Palin contest, holding a 46-43 lead at this stage. He would dominate the black and Hispanic voters in such a contest, 88-9 and 74-21 respectively.
Obama's overall national approval rating is 55/37. 93% of Democrats but only 14% of Republicans express support for the job he's doing. PPP also finds slightly negative approval for Obama among independents, 41/50. This is a finding at odds with many national surveys but not inconsistent with PPP's state by state polls, which have found Obama's approval in the 40s among unaffiliated voters in states ranging from blue Delaware to purple North Carolina to red Texas.
Palin is viewed negatively by 50% of voters in the country with just 39% holding a positive opinion of her. 69% of Republicans have a favorable view of her, while only 11% of Democrats do.
Full results here.
The key reason Palin would lose to Obama by so much is that even though she might be the top choice for a certain segment of voters within her party, there's also a number of Republicans who say they would vote for Obama if their party nominated Palin. The Alaska Governor leads Obama just 66-17 among GOP voters. By comparison, John McCain beat Obama 90-9 with the party faithful. So Palin would be losing a lot of ground even with the base if she was the nominee.
Obama leads 89-7 with Democrats and has a more narrow 46-42 advantage with independents.
Despite his strong overall victory last year Obama actually lost the white vote 55-43. But it appears he would shore up his standing with that demographic in a Palin contest, holding a 46-43 lead at this stage. He would dominate the black and Hispanic voters in such a contest, 88-9 and 74-21 respectively.
Obama's overall national approval rating is 55/37. 93% of Democrats but only 14% of Republicans express support for the job he's doing. PPP also finds slightly negative approval for Obama among independents, 41/50. This is a finding at odds with many national surveys but not inconsistent with PPP's state by state polls, which have found Obama's approval in the 40s among unaffiliated voters in states ranging from blue Delaware to purple North Carolina to red Texas.
Palin is viewed negatively by 50% of voters in the country with just 39% holding a positive opinion of her. 69% of Republicans have a favorable view of her, while only 11% of Democrats do.
Full results here.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
What you've all been wanting to know
How many electoral votes would Barack Obama get if the GOP nominated Sarah Palin in 2012?
We'll have a new national poll to help answer that question tomorrow.
We'll have a new national poll to help answer that question tomorrow.
People lie to pollsters pt. 2
I argued last fall that while I don't think people lie to pollsters about who they plan to support in an election or what they think about a hot button issue, I do think they sometimes fib about their level of informedness, wanting to make it seem like they follow politics more closely than they actually do.
That's definitely the case with a question we asked on our poll last weekend about whether or not respondents watched Governor Perdue's State of the State Address last week. 32% of the state's voters claimed they did. I would be surprised if actual viewership was more than a tenth of that- perhaps 3% of the state's voters- but I bet even that's on the high end.
The ratings weren't even close to that high for the Carolina-Duke game last weekend.
Either way there are indications within the numbers that the speech might have been a success for the Governor. Her approval rating among those who claimed to watch the speech (51/38) was a good deal better than among those who admitted they didn't (40/34).
If anyone has any hard numbers on tv viewership for the State of the State address, please share!
Full results here.
That's definitely the case with a question we asked on our poll last weekend about whether or not respondents watched Governor Perdue's State of the State Address last week. 32% of the state's voters claimed they did. I would be surprised if actual viewership was more than a tenth of that- perhaps 3% of the state's voters- but I bet even that's on the high end.
The ratings weren't even close to that high for the Carolina-Duke game last weekend.
Either way there are indications within the numbers that the speech might have been a success for the Governor. Her approval rating among those who claimed to watch the speech (51/38) was a good deal better than among those who admitted they didn't (40/34).
If anyone has any hard numbers on tv viewership for the State of the State address, please share!
Full results here.
Perdue Approval Unaffected by Lottery Reallocation
A strong majority of North Carolina voters are opposed to Bev Perdue's proposal to help balance the budget using lottery money, but it's not having any impact on her overall approval, which remains in positive territory.
63% of respondents think that lottery proceeds should continue to be spent solely on education. That sentiment is particularly strong with Republicans (77%) and independents (72%). Democrats are evenly split on the proposal.
Perdue's approval rating is 44/35, pretty much the same as her 43/32 spread a month ago. For the second month in a row her numbers in greater Charlotte (44/31) are better than her overall statewide figures, an indication that her efforts to reach out to the region where she fared the poorest at the polls in November are working. She's also doing particularly well in the Triangle (56/29) and in her home base of eastern North Carolina (52/35).
And perhaps most important with the budget coming out today, she has particularly strong numbers among voters most concerned with the economy (50/29). It's the top issue for 55% of the state, and Perdue gets stronger numbers on it than anything else besides health care.
The Governor does have some work to do with independents, where her standing has slipped into slightly negative territory (37/39).
Full results here
63% of respondents think that lottery proceeds should continue to be spent solely on education. That sentiment is particularly strong with Republicans (77%) and independents (72%). Democrats are evenly split on the proposal.
Perdue's approval rating is 44/35, pretty much the same as her 43/32 spread a month ago. For the second month in a row her numbers in greater Charlotte (44/31) are better than her overall statewide figures, an indication that her efforts to reach out to the region where she fared the poorest at the polls in November are working. She's also doing particularly well in the Triangle (56/29) and in her home base of eastern North Carolina (52/35).
And perhaps most important with the budget coming out today, she has particularly strong numbers among voters most concerned with the economy (50/29). It's the top issue for 55% of the state, and Perdue gets stronger numbers on it than anything else besides health care.
The Governor does have some work to do with independents, where her standing has slipped into slightly negative territory (37/39).
Full results here
Monday, March 16, 2009
GOP race going to get nasty
I get the sense the race for NCGOP chair has already been kind of nasty in the low rumblings sense but I was a little surprised by a google search from an IP address in Charlotte that came in to the blog today:
"Tom Fetzer political dirt"
Folks are clearly digging, and it will be interesting to see if that kind of unpleasantness goes public.
After David Young announced he was going to run for NCDP chair the rest of the party pretty much got on board. Will Rogers may have said he didn't belong to an organized political party because he was a Democrat, but in North Carolina that statement applies a whole lot more to the Republicans right now.
"Tom Fetzer political dirt"
Folks are clearly digging, and it will be interesting to see if that kind of unpleasantness goes public.
After David Young announced he was going to run for NCDP chair the rest of the party pretty much got on board. Will Rogers may have said he didn't belong to an organized political party because he was a Democrat, but in North Carolina that statement applies a whole lot more to the Republicans right now.
High Correlation between Swing States, Obama Travel Schedule
Barack Obama has gotten out of Washington a fair amount since taking office eight weeks ago, and there's a pretty clear pattern to where he's going: states that were highly competitive last fall or may be in 2012.
Out of state public appearances since the inauguration include:
-Springfield, Virginia
-Ft. Myers, Florida
-Elkhart, Indiana
-Denver, Colorado
-Phoenix, Arizona
-Columbus, Ohio
-Jacksonville, North Carolina
North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado are the six states where President Obama had his smallest margins of victory and he's visited all of them since assuming office, an indication that even in the opening weeks of his Presidency he is setting up his public appearance schedule with an eye toward 2012.
Arizona was not a swing state in 2008, but a PPP analysis in December found that Obama likely would have won the state if the GOP nominee last year had been any one other than John McCain. Along with Missouri and Montana it seems like one of the three red states from last year most likely to shift when the President runs for reelection.
A great deal of the Obama political operation's success last year could be tied back to intelligent planning ahead, and that's continued on with the way the President has been deployed across the country in these first weeks.
Out of state public appearances since the inauguration include:
-Springfield, Virginia
-Ft. Myers, Florida
-Elkhart, Indiana
-Denver, Colorado
-Phoenix, Arizona
-Columbus, Ohio
-Jacksonville, North Carolina
North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado are the six states where President Obama had his smallest margins of victory and he's visited all of them since assuming office, an indication that even in the opening weeks of his Presidency he is setting up his public appearance schedule with an eye toward 2012.
Arizona was not a swing state in 2008, but a PPP analysis in December found that Obama likely would have won the state if the GOP nominee last year had been any one other than John McCain. Along with Missouri and Montana it seems like one of the three red states from last year most likely to shift when the President runs for reelection.
A great deal of the Obama political operation's success last year could be tied back to intelligent planning ahead, and that's continued on with the way the President has been deployed across the country in these first weeks.
Sleeper Senate Races
I don't think anyone six months ago really expected the Senate contests in Connecticut and Delaware for 2010 to look competitive at this point in the game, but our poll last week showed Mike Castle might start out as a small favorite if he got in the race and it appears Rob Simmons is in in Connecticut following a Quinnipiac survey last week showing him with a narrow advantage.
There are races in every cycle that end up being a lot more competitive than anyone might have initially expected, like North Carolina and Alaska last year and Virginia in 2006.
I've already argued based on our polling in the late fall that Johnny Isakson could be vulnerable to a strong challenger, but here's my question: what other Senate seats up next year that haven't received any polling or attention might be competitive that people aren't talking about? We'll try to poll some of those places in the next few months and figure out if there's anything there or not.
There are races in every cycle that end up being a lot more competitive than anyone might have initially expected, like North Carolina and Alaska last year and Virginia in 2006.
I've already argued based on our polling in the late fall that Johnny Isakson could be vulnerable to a strong challenger, but here's my question: what other Senate seats up next year that haven't received any polling or attention might be competitive that people aren't talking about? We'll try to poll some of those places in the next few months and figure out if there's anything there or not.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Sports Polling
I am a huge Atlanta Braves fan and have been pretty much my whole life. Last weekend I bought tickets to their entire series in Los Angeles the minute single games for the Dodgers went on sale.
So I was pretty interested to see that Survey USA recently did some polling in metro Atlanta about the Braves and their ownership. They found that while only 26% of respondents reported having a favorable opinion of Ted Turner more than double that number, 55%, wish Ted would own the team again.
So do I. Also think they should bring Leo Mazzone back but I am optimistic for the season, even in a tough division.
They also did a Kentucky poll about UK coach Billy Gillispie and found that 54% of Wildcat fans think that he is the wrong coach for the school with only 33% thinking he's the right one.
I wouldn't write Gillispie off yet but I don't think folks should be shocked if he does end up being a failure- he was hired on an awfully thin resume. I don't think two years at UTEP and three at Texas A&M used to qualify you for the Kentucky job, and it's also pretty clear he didn't build anything lasting at either of those programs based on their success after he left.
UNC learned the lesson the hard way with Matt Doherty about hiring someone who didn't have a long track record of success as a head coach. Looks like UK is learning the same thing.
So I was pretty interested to see that Survey USA recently did some polling in metro Atlanta about the Braves and their ownership. They found that while only 26% of respondents reported having a favorable opinion of Ted Turner more than double that number, 55%, wish Ted would own the team again.
So do I. Also think they should bring Leo Mazzone back but I am optimistic for the season, even in a tough division.
They also did a Kentucky poll about UK coach Billy Gillispie and found that 54% of Wildcat fans think that he is the wrong coach for the school with only 33% thinking he's the right one.
I wouldn't write Gillispie off yet but I don't think folks should be shocked if he does end up being a failure- he was hired on an awfully thin resume. I don't think two years at UTEP and three at Texas A&M used to qualify you for the Kentucky job, and it's also pretty clear he didn't build anything lasting at either of those programs based on their success after he left.
UNC learned the lesson the hard way with Matt Doherty about hiring someone who didn't have a long track record of success as a head coach. Looks like UK is learning the same thing.
Next Week
Our poll in the field right now for release next week is our big monthly survey on North Carolina politicians and issues. We'll have approval ratings for Barack Obama, Bev Perdue, Kay Hagan, and Richard Burr, look at how Burr and Elaine Marshall would stack up for the Senate, look at how Burr does on the generic ballot, take the pulse of Rush Limbaugh's popularity in the state, and poll on several key issues in the General Assembly.
For next week I want to do a poll about what Pennsylvanians think about the possibility of Arlen Specter changing parties but I'm afraid we might get beaten to the punch on that so I'm open to other suggestions too...the key for us as usual is that we want to deliver something unique so fire away and we'll think about it.
For next week I want to do a poll about what Pennsylvanians think about the possibility of Arlen Specter changing parties but I'm afraid we might get beaten to the punch on that so I'm open to other suggestions too...the key for us as usual is that we want to deliver something unique so fire away and we'll think about it.
Small state voters less partisan?
Yesterday I was on the radio in Wilmington wrapping up our Delaware poll and the host asked me, 'so as a pollster who does surveys around the country, what's different about Delaware?'
Great question. What struck me was that voters in the state seemed to be less partisan than those in bigger places. We've done approval/favorability ratings on about 50 different politicians over the last three months. Only three of them had plurality support from voters in the opposite party. Andrew Cuomo was one of them but the other two were both in Delaware and represented each party- Democrats gave Mike Castle net positive reviews and Republicans gave Jack Markell the same.
I thought about it, and there are actually a number of deep blue or deep red states at the Presidential level who consistently give resounding reelections to certain statewide officials in the opposite party. North Dakota's Congressional delegation consists entirely of Democrats who have won at least 60% in their last two reelection contests. Vermont has a popular Republican Governor while Wyoming has a popular Democratic Governor. Maine has two unbeatable Republican Senators. South Dakota has a Democratic Senator and House member. Montana has a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators. All of these states vote the same way for President pretty much every time, and usually by a wide margin, but that hasn't kept opposite party politicians from enjoying widespread popularity.
I was talking to someone in Delaware about this earlier this week and he said that he thought it was a product of retail politics- that in a small state folks feel like they really know their politicians and that personal familiarity can trump party labels.
Great question. What struck me was that voters in the state seemed to be less partisan than those in bigger places. We've done approval/favorability ratings on about 50 different politicians over the last three months. Only three of them had plurality support from voters in the opposite party. Andrew Cuomo was one of them but the other two were both in Delaware and represented each party- Democrats gave Mike Castle net positive reviews and Republicans gave Jack Markell the same.
I thought about it, and there are actually a number of deep blue or deep red states at the Presidential level who consistently give resounding reelections to certain statewide officials in the opposite party. North Dakota's Congressional delegation consists entirely of Democrats who have won at least 60% in their last two reelection contests. Vermont has a popular Republican Governor while Wyoming has a popular Democratic Governor. Maine has two unbeatable Republican Senators. South Dakota has a Democratic Senator and House member. Montana has a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators. All of these states vote the same way for President pretty much every time, and usually by a wide margin, but that hasn't kept opposite party politicians from enjoying widespread popularity.
I was talking to someone in Delaware about this earlier this week and he said that he thought it was a product of retail politics- that in a small state folks feel like they really know their politicians and that personal familiarity can trump party labels.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
NC GOP: Yikes
Did folks see this 'video' the North Carolina Republican Party made as a response to Bev Perdue's State of the State address?
What an embarrassment. I didn't even pay attention to the content because the production values were so terrible. The blurry picture makes Linda Daves look like a ghost, which I'm sure she doesn't look like in real life but probably is a good symbol for where the GOP in the state is today.
I'm sure they were trying to be trendy by putting their response on the internet but it's worse to do modern technology badly than it is to not do it at all.
The news that Tom Fetzer is now running for NCGOP chair is interesting. I think he would have to be an upgrade. He understands public relations and perception enough that I'm sure he would never let something this bad go out under his watch. And as the former Mayor of Raleigh he has at least shown an ability for success at a high level of politics.
It will be interesting to see if the main campaigns Fetzer was involved with last year- disastrously unsuccessful ones for Bill Graham and Elizabeth Dole- become an issue in the chair race. Will folks wonder if Fetzer's leadership is the kind of change in direction the party needs to get back on the right track?
Fetzer's candidacy is also a little curious given his statement to the N&O last September that he was closing his consulting firm because:
As a Democrat I'm glad to be able to just sit back and watch this one unfold from the sidelines.
What an embarrassment. I didn't even pay attention to the content because the production values were so terrible. The blurry picture makes Linda Daves look like a ghost, which I'm sure she doesn't look like in real life but probably is a good symbol for where the GOP in the state is today.
I'm sure they were trying to be trendy by putting their response on the internet but it's worse to do modern technology badly than it is to not do it at all.
The news that Tom Fetzer is now running for NCGOP chair is interesting. I think he would have to be an upgrade. He understands public relations and perception enough that I'm sure he would never let something this bad go out under his watch. And as the former Mayor of Raleigh he has at least shown an ability for success at a high level of politics.
It will be interesting to see if the main campaigns Fetzer was involved with last year- disastrously unsuccessful ones for Bill Graham and Elizabeth Dole- become an issue in the chair race. Will folks wonder if Fetzer's leadership is the kind of change in direction the party needs to get back on the right track?
Fetzer's candidacy is also a little curious given his statement to the N&O last September that he was closing his consulting firm because:
"We don't want to do campaigns anymore," said Fetzer. "We're old men and this is a young man's game."I wouldn't think that serving as chair of Republican Party is much of a retirement gig, and you sure have to be involved with campaigns. The pay just isn't as good!
As a Democrat I'm glad to be able to just sit back and watch this one unfold from the sidelines.
Don't make too much of NY-20
Some folks seem to want to turn the race for Kirsten Gillibrand's vacated House seat into some grand referendum on President Obama or Michael Steele or whatever. There will doubtless be a lot of spin one way or the other in that vein when the race is over.
Don't buy into it.
I guess I sort of learned that lesson the hard way. In February 2004 Ben Chandler won Ernie Fletcher's Congressional District in Kentucky. Then in June Stephanie Herseth won Bill Janklow's seat in South Dakota. Those were both pretty Republican districts and I thought those victories boded really well for Democrats in the fall.
They ended up accounting for 40% of the Democratic House pickups for the entire 2004 election cycle. Only three other seats shifted in a Democratic direction come November.
Now there are examples to the contrary- Kay Bailey Hutchison's special election blowout in Texas in 1993 might have presaged the Republican triumphs of 1994 and Harris Wofford's 1991 surprise victory in Pennsylvania over Richard Thornburgh was a preview of Democratic success in 1992. And Democrats did win some House seats they had no business getting in special elections last year.
Still, special elections with exceedingly low turnout tend to have a lot more to do with who the candidates are, local conditions, etc. If James Tedisco wins it doesn't mean America hates Barack Obama. And if Scott Murphy wins it doesn't mean the Republican Party should just fold. It just means the 60,000 or so people who bother to turn out in an area of upstate New York that represents 1/435th of the American population liked one guy more than another. I wouldn't necessarily take a whole lot more from it than that.
Don't buy into it.
I guess I sort of learned that lesson the hard way. In February 2004 Ben Chandler won Ernie Fletcher's Congressional District in Kentucky. Then in June Stephanie Herseth won Bill Janklow's seat in South Dakota. Those were both pretty Republican districts and I thought those victories boded really well for Democrats in the fall.
They ended up accounting for 40% of the Democratic House pickups for the entire 2004 election cycle. Only three other seats shifted in a Democratic direction come November.
Now there are examples to the contrary- Kay Bailey Hutchison's special election blowout in Texas in 1993 might have presaged the Republican triumphs of 1994 and Harris Wofford's 1991 surprise victory in Pennsylvania over Richard Thornburgh was a preview of Democratic success in 1992. And Democrats did win some House seats they had no business getting in special elections last year.
Still, special elections with exceedingly low turnout tend to have a lot more to do with who the candidates are, local conditions, etc. If James Tedisco wins it doesn't mean America hates Barack Obama. And if Scott Murphy wins it doesn't mean the Republican Party should just fold. It just means the 60,000 or so people who bother to turn out in an area of upstate New York that represents 1/435th of the American population liked one guy more than another. I wouldn't necessarily take a whole lot more from it than that.
Castle leads Carney and Coons
Mike Castle has double digit leads over former Lieutenant Governor John Carney and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, two hypothetical 2010 opponents for his House seat.
It appears, however, that Carney would start out in decent position to give Castle the strongest challenge he's had in years. Castle is actually below the magic 50% considered safe territory for incumbents, with a 49-32 edge over Carney. It's a wider 56-21 edge over Coons.
Carney and Coons are each unknown quantities to a large swath of state voters, giving either a lot of room to move up if they decided to make the race next year. While all but 13% of Delaware voters have an opinion about Castle, 35% are ambivalent toward Carney and 45% have no feelings one way or the other about Coons.
Among those who do know them, Carney gets a positive 37/28 rating and Coons' is 30/25.
Carney, who seems the more likely of the two candidates, is under performing with Democrats and several key demographics that tend to support the party's candidates. For instance he has just a 48-34 advantage with voters in his own party, and also is at 48% with black voters and only 24% with those under 30. Those numbers would all likely improve a good deal if he made the race.
Certainly Castle's numbers are strong and he would be heavily favored against either of these challengers. But these numbers do not show invincibility- in fact Elizabeth Dole held a 17 point lead in our polling on the North Carolina Senate race last year as late as February even after challengers to her had been campaigning for several months. This could be a race to watch if Carney makes it.
Full results here.
It appears, however, that Carney would start out in decent position to give Castle the strongest challenge he's had in years. Castle is actually below the magic 50% considered safe territory for incumbents, with a 49-32 edge over Carney. It's a wider 56-21 edge over Coons.
Carney and Coons are each unknown quantities to a large swath of state voters, giving either a lot of room to move up if they decided to make the race next year. While all but 13% of Delaware voters have an opinion about Castle, 35% are ambivalent toward Carney and 45% have no feelings one way or the other about Coons.
Among those who do know them, Carney gets a positive 37/28 rating and Coons' is 30/25.
Carney, who seems the more likely of the two candidates, is under performing with Democrats and several key demographics that tend to support the party's candidates. For instance he has just a 48-34 advantage with voters in his own party, and also is at 48% with black voters and only 24% with those under 30. Those numbers would all likely improve a good deal if he made the race.
Certainly Castle's numbers are strong and he would be heavily favored against either of these challengers. But these numbers do not show invincibility- in fact Elizabeth Dole held a 17 point lead in our polling on the North Carolina Senate race last year as late as February even after challengers to her had been campaigning for several months. This could be a race to watch if Carney makes it.
Full results here.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Trends in Obama's Approval
Over the last month we've looked at Barack Obama's approval rating in a blue state (Delaware), a purple state (North Carolina), and a red state (Texas.)
Here are the trends among Democrats, Republicans, and independents:
-Democrats love Obama no matter where they are. Maybe that seems like a no brainer but remember all the noise last year about the PUMA's? Clearly that was overblown. It was one thing for disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters to vote for Obama last fall as the lesser of two evils, but at this point they don't have any obligation to say they like the job he's doing unless they really do. He gets 90% support from Dems in Texas, 89% in Delaware, and 82% in North Carolina. Clearly there is no widespread gnashing of teeth over Obama with the party faithful.
-Independents are pretty divided. In all three states we found both his approval and disapproval with them in the 40s. It was 49/43 in Delaware, 46/45 in North Carolina, and 42/46 in Texas. There's still a fair amount of work to do there.
-Not a lot of support from Republicans, and the redder a state is the less the GOP is supportive of Obama. He gets 8% approval from Texas Republicans, 12% in North Carolina, and a more respectable 25% in Delaware. Definitely not lighting the world on fire across party lines, but I'm not sure what he can really do about that.
Here are the trends among Democrats, Republicans, and independents:
-Democrats love Obama no matter where they are. Maybe that seems like a no brainer but remember all the noise last year about the PUMA's? Clearly that was overblown. It was one thing for disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters to vote for Obama last fall as the lesser of two evils, but at this point they don't have any obligation to say they like the job he's doing unless they really do. He gets 90% support from Dems in Texas, 89% in Delaware, and 82% in North Carolina. Clearly there is no widespread gnashing of teeth over Obama with the party faithful.
-Independents are pretty divided. In all three states we found both his approval and disapproval with them in the 40s. It was 49/43 in Delaware, 46/45 in North Carolina, and 42/46 in Texas. There's still a fair amount of work to do there.
-Not a lot of support from Republicans, and the redder a state is the less the GOP is supportive of Obama. He gets 8% approval from Texas Republicans, 12% in North Carolina, and a more respectable 25% in Delaware. Definitely not lighting the world on fire across party lines, but I'm not sure what he can really do about that.
Delaware loves its politicians
Over the last year and a half PPP has done approval ratings on Senators and Governors in states across the country but never has it ever found a Governor with as high an approval rating as Delaware's Jack Markell or a Senator with numbers as good as Tom Carper.
Markell is enjoying approval from 62% of the state's voters, with only 17% disapproving. It's no surprise he gets support from 76% of Democrats, but his performance also gets positive reviews from a plurality of Republicans (42/32), and a majority of independents (52/15).
Carper's numbers are 57/26, just slightly better than the 57/27 PPP registered for Missouri Senator Kit Bond shortly after he announced he would not run for reelection in mid-January. Carper doesn't have the crossover appeal of Markell, with 50% of Republican disapproving of his job performance, but he does have great numbers within his own party (73/13) and among independents (48/28).
Markell and Carper both have greater than 50% approval with every demographic group PPP tracks by race, gender, and age.
President Obama is off to a pretty good start with Delaware voters as well, with 63% approving of his work so far compared to 31% who disapprove. Obama is extremely strong with the Democratic base, with 89% expressing support for his work, but has considerably weaker numbers than Carper and Markell with Republicans and independents. 64% of Republican disapprove of Obama's performance with only 25% in approval, and independents are just narrowly giving him positive marks, 49/43.
Appointed Senator Ted Kaufman is a blank slate to a plurality of voters in the state, with 41% saying they have no opinion of him one way or the other. Among those who do he has 35% approval and 24% disapproval.
Full results here.
Markell is enjoying approval from 62% of the state's voters, with only 17% disapproving. It's no surprise he gets support from 76% of Democrats, but his performance also gets positive reviews from a plurality of Republicans (42/32), and a majority of independents (52/15).
Carper's numbers are 57/26, just slightly better than the 57/27 PPP registered for Missouri Senator Kit Bond shortly after he announced he would not run for reelection in mid-January. Carper doesn't have the crossover appeal of Markell, with 50% of Republican disapproving of his job performance, but he does have great numbers within his own party (73/13) and among independents (48/28).
Markell and Carper both have greater than 50% approval with every demographic group PPP tracks by race, gender, and age.
President Obama is off to a pretty good start with Delaware voters as well, with 63% approving of his work so far compared to 31% who disapprove. Obama is extremely strong with the Democratic base, with 89% expressing support for his work, but has considerably weaker numbers than Carper and Markell with Republicans and independents. 64% of Republican disapprove of Obama's performance with only 25% in approval, and independents are just narrowly giving him positive marks, 49/43.
Appointed Senator Ted Kaufman is a blank slate to a plurality of voters in the state, with 41% saying they have no opinion of him one way or the other. Among those who do he has 35% approval and 24% disapproval.
Full results here.
GOP hasn't learned any lessons
So when we put out the poll on the sex ed bill two weeks ago I made this observation:
Samuelson also dismissed our poll on the issue, saying that we didn't give enough information about what the programs would actually teach.
Well I'll go right ahead and tell you that if we asked a Civitas style poll question asking North Carolinians if they think their children should be taught that polygamy is ok we'd get a very different answer. But as pollsters we were asking about what the bill would actually do, not asking about some extreme right wing paranoia fantasy about what the bill would do.
And the truth of the matter is when you ask it straight up, even a majority of Republicans support the bill because it's putting the decision in the hands of parents about what their children are exposed to. That form of hyper local control is something that rank and file conservatives support.
So basically what you have going on here is that the Republican caucus in the legislature is more out there than the Republican voters in the state. You would have thought that Republicans learned a lesson after being destroyed last year in this usually red state, but it looks like they're sticking to the same recipe of spewing lies, hate, and fear. That may be effective enough to kill some bills this year but it's not a good plan for getting themselves away from being a minority party.
Any time you combine politics, sex, and education you're likely to get a lot of emotional and overheated rhetoric and that's certainly bound to happen again as this bill makes it way through the legislature.It didn't take long for the overheated rhetoric to come, with Laura Leslie reporting yesterday that Rep. Ruth Samuelson believes the bill will result in students being taught that polygamy is ok.
Samuelson also dismissed our poll on the issue, saying that we didn't give enough information about what the programs would actually teach.
Well I'll go right ahead and tell you that if we asked a Civitas style poll question asking North Carolinians if they think their children should be taught that polygamy is ok we'd get a very different answer. But as pollsters we were asking about what the bill would actually do, not asking about some extreme right wing paranoia fantasy about what the bill would do.
And the truth of the matter is when you ask it straight up, even a majority of Republicans support the bill because it's putting the decision in the hands of parents about what their children are exposed to. That form of hyper local control is something that rank and file conservatives support.
So basically what you have going on here is that the Republican caucus in the legislature is more out there than the Republican voters in the state. You would have thought that Republicans learned a lesson after being destroyed last year in this usually red state, but it looks like they're sticking to the same recipe of spewing lies, hate, and fear. That may be effective enough to kill some bills this year but it's not a good plan for getting themselves away from being a minority party.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Senate Incumbents who have trailed
With today's Quinnipiac poll showing Rob Simmons leading Chris Dodd 43-42 in Connecticut, I believe that makes Dodd the fifth incumbent Senator up for reelection next year who has not announced his retirement to trail in a head to head poll.
Two of the others were ours:
-We showed Roy Cooper leading Richard Burr 39-34 in North Carolina.
-We had Bill Owens leading Michael Bennet 44-41 in Colorado. An Owens campaign seems very unlikely.
And the other two were Kos'
-Janet Napolitano led John McCain 53-45 in an October poll, although it seems pretty clear now this contest won't happen.
-Sarah Palin led Lisa Murkowski 55-31 in an Alaska primary match.
Am I forgetting another poll that showed an incumbent losing? I know there's been some less than encouraging ones for Arlen Specter but don't remember one where he was actually down in a head to head contest, although I'm sure if you polled it today he'd trail Pat Toomey in the GOP primary.
Two of the others were ours:
-We showed Roy Cooper leading Richard Burr 39-34 in North Carolina.
-We had Bill Owens leading Michael Bennet 44-41 in Colorado. An Owens campaign seems very unlikely.
And the other two were Kos'
-Janet Napolitano led John McCain 53-45 in an October poll, although it seems pretty clear now this contest won't happen.
-Sarah Palin led Lisa Murkowski 55-31 in an Alaska primary match.
Am I forgetting another poll that showed an incumbent losing? I know there's been some less than encouraging ones for Arlen Specter but don't remember one where he was actually down in a head to head contest, although I'm sure if you polled it today he'd trail Pat Toomey in the GOP primary.
Shuler news good for Democrats
The news that Heath Shuler will not run for the Senate is good news for Democrats, assuming they still get a strong challenger:
-The biggest reason is that it will ensure his House seat remains in Democratic hands. Although there actually is a good bench of candidates in western North Carolina who have shown the ability to win in Republican areas, you're still always safer with an incumbent. And don't forget that this is still a pretty strong GOP district- even as Obama won statewide last year he lost the 11th 52-47.
-Shuler's candidacy could have been extremely divisive within the party. If Shuler had run as the establishment candidate in the same way that Kay Hagan did last year, there would have almost certainly been a revolt from the left because of some of his recent actions in the House. That could have had the effect of either Shuler still getting nominated but being badly damaged, or another candidate being nominated too far to the left to win in a general election. Contested primaries can be healthy- Hagan was the better for her contest with Jim Neal last year- but I'm not sure this one would have been in the best interests of beating Richard Burr.
-It probably increases the chance that Roy Cooper, clearly the Democrats' strongest possible candidate, will throw his hat in the ring. Word is he didn't want a seriously contested primary and this takes the most viable other mentioned candidate out of the picture.
That's the electoral analysis, and there's also the matter that any other Democratic candidate would probably be more likely than Shuler to support the President's agenda in the Senate. I think Shuler would have been a formidable candidate but that if elected there would have been times where Democratic activists had to wonder what the point of getting him in there in the first place was.
-The biggest reason is that it will ensure his House seat remains in Democratic hands. Although there actually is a good bench of candidates in western North Carolina who have shown the ability to win in Republican areas, you're still always safer with an incumbent. And don't forget that this is still a pretty strong GOP district- even as Obama won statewide last year he lost the 11th 52-47.
-Shuler's candidacy could have been extremely divisive within the party. If Shuler had run as the establishment candidate in the same way that Kay Hagan did last year, there would have almost certainly been a revolt from the left because of some of his recent actions in the House. That could have had the effect of either Shuler still getting nominated but being badly damaged, or another candidate being nominated too far to the left to win in a general election. Contested primaries can be healthy- Hagan was the better for her contest with Jim Neal last year- but I'm not sure this one would have been in the best interests of beating Richard Burr.
-It probably increases the chance that Roy Cooper, clearly the Democrats' strongest possible candidate, will throw his hat in the ring. Word is he didn't want a seriously contested primary and this takes the most viable other mentioned candidate out of the picture.
That's the electoral analysis, and there's also the matter that any other Democratic candidate would probably be more likely than Shuler to support the President's agenda in the Senate. I think Shuler would have been a formidable candidate but that if elected there would have been times where Democratic activists had to wonder what the point of getting him in there in the first place was.
Castle leads Biden in possible match
PPP's new Delaware survey finds that longtime Republican Congressman Mike Castle would lead Attorney General Beau Biden 44-36 in a possible 2010 Senate contest.
Each candidate is very popular. Castle has a 54% approval rating from state voters with 33% disapproving of his work. Even a 45% plurality of Democrats approve with 39% disapproving, the first time PPP has ever found a member of Congress getting more positive than negative reviews from voters in the opposite party. Castle's overall approval rating isn't better because 24% of Republicans disapprove of his performance, probably due to his moderate stands on many issues that may not fly with the conservative Republican base.
Biden actually has a slightly better net approval rating than Castle, although more voters are ambivalent toward his job performance. 49% approve of the work he's doing with only 27% expressing disapproval.
Castle is winning the head to head match up because of a 53-20 advantage with independents and because he pulls 22% of the Democratic vote. Biden's core problem at this point is that even though 67% of the voters who have a positive opinion of both him and Castle are Democrats, he has only a 42-40 lead with that group. That's likely a function of voters knowing Castle better after nearly 30 years in statewide office.
The particularly good news for Democrats? There's been no indication from Castle that he's interested in running and given Biden's overall strong marks from Delaware voters there's probably not any other Republican who could be competitive with him.
Full results here.
Each candidate is very popular. Castle has a 54% approval rating from state voters with 33% disapproving of his work. Even a 45% plurality of Democrats approve with 39% disapproving, the first time PPP has ever found a member of Congress getting more positive than negative reviews from voters in the opposite party. Castle's overall approval rating isn't better because 24% of Republicans disapprove of his performance, probably due to his moderate stands on many issues that may not fly with the conservative Republican base.
Biden actually has a slightly better net approval rating than Castle, although more voters are ambivalent toward his job performance. 49% approve of the work he's doing with only 27% expressing disapproval.
Castle is winning the head to head match up because of a 53-20 advantage with independents and because he pulls 22% of the Democratic vote. Biden's core problem at this point is that even though 67% of the voters who have a positive opinion of both him and Castle are Democrats, he has only a 42-40 lead with that group. That's likely a function of voters knowing Castle better after nearly 30 years in statewide office.
The particularly good news for Democrats? There's been no indication from Castle that he's interested in running and given Biden's overall strong marks from Delaware voters there's probably not any other Republican who could be competitive with him.
Full results here.
Monday, March 9, 2009
How Perdue's approval breaks down on the issues
As Bev Perdue gives her State of the State address tonight it is no surprise that our last tracking poll found the economy as the top issue for 51% of North Carolina voters.
Perdue's performance is pretty strong with that group, with 53% of folks listing the economy as their biggest concern approving of her job performance compared to 25% who disapprove. Her speech tonight gives her an opportunity to reach out to that 21% who are ambivalent.
She doesn't figure to give a lot of airtime this evening to the issue the second largest group of voters in the state lists as their biggest one, which is moral and family values at 16%. Only 20% of those folks approve of the Governor's performance with 52% disapproving, and they're the kind of people it would be hard for a Democratic Governor to ever win over.
The other three state issues polling above 5% are education and taxes at 7% and health care at 6%. Perdue repeatedly said during the campaign that she wanted to make North Carolina the 'healthiest and most well educated' state in the country and given that commitment it is not a surprise that she gets relatively strong marks from voters who list those issues as their main ones.
Perdue does not get such good reviews from people who say taxes are their biggest concern, with 15% approving and 59% disapproving of her job performance. Given the likelihood that she will be discussing some deep budget cuts this evening it may be an opportunity for her to show that segment of the electorate that she's committed to getting through the recession without major tax hikes.
Overall this poll found Perdue's approval rating at 43% with 32% disapproving and 25% undecided. PPP will have a fresh look at her reviews next week to incorporate any reaction to her speech.
Perdue's performance is pretty strong with that group, with 53% of folks listing the economy as their biggest concern approving of her job performance compared to 25% who disapprove. Her speech tonight gives her an opportunity to reach out to that 21% who are ambivalent.
She doesn't figure to give a lot of airtime this evening to the issue the second largest group of voters in the state lists as their biggest one, which is moral and family values at 16%. Only 20% of those folks approve of the Governor's performance with 52% disapproving, and they're the kind of people it would be hard for a Democratic Governor to ever win over.
The other three state issues polling above 5% are education and taxes at 7% and health care at 6%. Perdue repeatedly said during the campaign that she wanted to make North Carolina the 'healthiest and most well educated' state in the country and given that commitment it is not a surprise that she gets relatively strong marks from voters who list those issues as their main ones.
Perdue does not get such good reviews from people who say taxes are their biggest concern, with 15% approving and 59% disapproving of her job performance. Given the likelihood that she will be discussing some deep budget cuts this evening it may be an opportunity for her to show that segment of the electorate that she's committed to getting through the recession without major tax hikes.
Overall this poll found Perdue's approval rating at 43% with 32% disapproving and 25% undecided. PPP will have a fresh look at her reviews next week to incorporate any reaction to her speech.
Notes on Delaware
Our Delaware poll will start coming out tomorrow. A few notes:
-Delaware loves its politicians. Pretty much across the board the highest approval ratings we've found for folks anywhere in the country over the last year. I'm guessing that's a function of longevity- Jack Markell, Mike Castle, and Tom Carper have all been in statewide office for more than ten years- and being a small state- folks are better known.
-The Castle/Beau Biden results were a little surprising to me so I looked up Biden's Attorney General election from 2006 and thought it was interesting that despite the name, he won by just five points. He may not yet benefit from the same level of popularity as his father.
-Delawareans are comparatively eager to be polled. The hang up rate on this survey- the number of people disconnecting within five seconds of answering the phone- was less than 5%. For most states we poll that's closer to 20%.
Tomorrow we'll release the Castle/Biden stuff, Wednesday we'll have approval ratings for President Obama and other statewide officials, and Thursday we'll look at how some possible Democratic challengers would do against Castle for his House seat. Stay tuned...
-Delaware loves its politicians. Pretty much across the board the highest approval ratings we've found for folks anywhere in the country over the last year. I'm guessing that's a function of longevity- Jack Markell, Mike Castle, and Tom Carper have all been in statewide office for more than ten years- and being a small state- folks are better known.
-The Castle/Beau Biden results were a little surprising to me so I looked up Biden's Attorney General election from 2006 and thought it was interesting that despite the name, he won by just five points. He may not yet benefit from the same level of popularity as his father.
-Delawareans are comparatively eager to be polled. The hang up rate on this survey- the number of people disconnecting within five seconds of answering the phone- was less than 5%. For most states we poll that's closer to 20%.
Tomorrow we'll release the Castle/Biden stuff, Wednesday we'll have approval ratings for President Obama and other statewide officials, and Thursday we'll look at how some possible Democratic challengers would do against Castle for his House seat. Stay tuned...
Quiet on the NC Senate Front
Robin Carnahan is in in Missouri. Kendrick Meek and Dan Gelber are in Florida. Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher are in Ohio. And the list could go on...
Most of the Senate seats Democrats are viewed as having a good chance of taking next year, folks are already lining up to run. But things have been awfully quiet in North Carolina, with no announcements from leading potential candidates Roy Cooper and Heath Shuler.
Mind you, I don't think this is a sign for concern at all. Kay Hagan ran an all star campaign after not jumping in until October.
I do think if any second tier candidates wanted to run now would be the time to announce and build up early support and start showing fundraising capability. After what happened last year it seems very likely that an 'A' list candidate will eventually get into the race, and if anyone who doesn't fit that description wants to have a chance it would probably behoove them to get a head start.
The point of all this musing being that with no candidates announced we'll keep testing hypothetical ones against Richard Burr, and we're going to plan on Elaine Marshall for this weekend since we haven't looked at any women yet and she does have statewide name recognition.
We have room for a couple more questions in general on our monthly tracking/issue poll for North Carolina. Any ideas? My preference is questions that can yield interesting crosstabs- like the native/non-native stuff- or ones that help us understand how North Carolina is changing, like the Jesse Helms/Jim Hunt question last month. But we're open to anything, leave your ideas in the comments.
Most of the Senate seats Democrats are viewed as having a good chance of taking next year, folks are already lining up to run. But things have been awfully quiet in North Carolina, with no announcements from leading potential candidates Roy Cooper and Heath Shuler.
Mind you, I don't think this is a sign for concern at all. Kay Hagan ran an all star campaign after not jumping in until October.
I do think if any second tier candidates wanted to run now would be the time to announce and build up early support and start showing fundraising capability. After what happened last year it seems very likely that an 'A' list candidate will eventually get into the race, and if anyone who doesn't fit that description wants to have a chance it would probably behoove them to get a head start.
The point of all this musing being that with no candidates announced we'll keep testing hypothetical ones against Richard Burr, and we're going to plan on Elaine Marshall for this weekend since we haven't looked at any women yet and she does have statewide name recognition.
We have room for a couple more questions in general on our monthly tracking/issue poll for North Carolina. Any ideas? My preference is questions that can yield interesting crosstabs- like the native/non-native stuff- or ones that help us understand how North Carolina is changing, like the Jesse Helms/Jim Hunt question last month. But we're open to anything, leave your ideas in the comments.
Friday, March 6, 2009
VA LG Numbers
I never posted our Virginia Lieutenant Governor numbers on the blog this week. Here they are:
Jody Wagner 9
Pat Edmonson 6
Michael Signer 5
Rich Savage 4
Jon Bowerbank 3
I've seen some efforts around the blogosphere to read too much into these numbers. Don't. Any time there's 70% plus undecideds in a race polls don't tell you much of anything other than that...there are a lot of undecideds.
Here's a matter of comparison. Last February we polled the NC Lieutenant Governor primary at a similar distance out from the election as Virginia is right now. We found Pat Smathers at 11%, Dan Besse at 10%, Walter Dalton at 9%, and Hampton Dellinger at 6%. The results ended up being Dalton with 46%, Dellinger with 34%, Smathers with 14%, and Besse with 7%.
What happened? Well two of the candidates had the money to broadly define themselves to the electorate in the month leading up to the election and the other two didn't. The best indication of where the LG primary in Virginia stands right now is probably the cash on hand rather than this poll- the latter won't move too much until the former starts getting spent on mass media. That measure is probably the best indicator at this point of who the true contenders are and who the also rans will be.
Jody Wagner 9
Pat Edmonson 6
Michael Signer 5
Rich Savage 4
Jon Bowerbank 3
I've seen some efforts around the blogosphere to read too much into these numbers. Don't. Any time there's 70% plus undecideds in a race polls don't tell you much of anything other than that...there are a lot of undecideds.
Here's a matter of comparison. Last February we polled the NC Lieutenant Governor primary at a similar distance out from the election as Virginia is right now. We found Pat Smathers at 11%, Dan Besse at 10%, Walter Dalton at 9%, and Hampton Dellinger at 6%. The results ended up being Dalton with 46%, Dellinger with 34%, Smathers with 14%, and Besse with 7%.
What happened? Well two of the candidates had the money to broadly define themselves to the electorate in the month leading up to the election and the other two didn't. The best indication of where the LG primary in Virginia stands right now is probably the cash on hand rather than this poll- the latter won't move too much until the former starts getting spent on mass media. That measure is probably the best indicator at this point of who the true contenders are and who the also rans will be.
North Carolina's Expanding Hispanic Vote
On January 1st, 2004 there were 8,136 Hispanics registered to vote in North Carolina. Now a little more than five years later that number is up to 68,835. That's a more than eightfold increase over that period of time.
Still, those 68,835 Hispanic voters represent only a little more than 1% of the registered voters in the state. That's considerably less than their 7% share of the population in the latest census estimates for North Carolina. But it's safe to say their slice of the electorate is going to move that way with their representation on the voter rolls increasing at a rapid pace.
What impact will that have on North Carolina politics? There still aren't enough Hispanic voters for the exit polls to have statistically significant data on how their votes break down, but in Virginia they went for Obama 65-34.
Obama was able to win North Carolina because black voters turned out at a rate higher than white voters, a remarkable occurrence not likely to be repeated without him at the top of the ballot. But the emergence of another strongly Democratic leaning demographic within the electorate may ensure the state's competitiveness last year becomes more the rule than the outlier.
It's also interesting to note that there are eight counties in the state with more than 2,000 Hispanic voters: Cumberland, Durham, Forsyth, Guilford, Mecklenburg, Onslow, Union, and Wake. Those also happen to be seven of the eight counties where Barack Obama made the greatest percentage gains relative to John Kerry in 2004, and the only one that doesn't fit that category, Union, came pretty close.
The emergence of Hispanics as a powerful voting bloc may prove to be the most important change in North Carolina politics over the next 20 years.
Still, those 68,835 Hispanic voters represent only a little more than 1% of the registered voters in the state. That's considerably less than their 7% share of the population in the latest census estimates for North Carolina. But it's safe to say their slice of the electorate is going to move that way with their representation on the voter rolls increasing at a rapid pace.
What impact will that have on North Carolina politics? There still aren't enough Hispanic voters for the exit polls to have statistically significant data on how their votes break down, but in Virginia they went for Obama 65-34.
Obama was able to win North Carolina because black voters turned out at a rate higher than white voters, a remarkable occurrence not likely to be repeated without him at the top of the ballot. But the emergence of another strongly Democratic leaning demographic within the electorate may ensure the state's competitiveness last year becomes more the rule than the outlier.
It's also interesting to note that there are eight counties in the state with more than 2,000 Hispanic voters: Cumberland, Durham, Forsyth, Guilford, Mecklenburg, Onslow, Union, and Wake. Those also happen to be seven of the eight counties where Barack Obama made the greatest percentage gains relative to John Kerry in 2004, and the only one that doesn't fit that category, Union, came pretty close.
The emergence of Hispanics as a powerful voting bloc may prove to be the most important change in North Carolina politics over the next 20 years.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Kissell's Seat
Dome reports today that the NRCC has spent a lot of energy lately trying to criticize Larry Kissell.
Good luck with that. Kissell showed he was a remarkable candidate in 2006 by nearly pulling off the upset of Robin Hayes with very little money. And it's not like he squeaked by when he got the resources he needed to run a strong campaign...he won by ten points.
It should also be noted that Kissell's district is more Democratic at the federal level than Heath Shuler, Bob Etheridge, and Mike McIntyre's. All three of those guys appear to be unbeatable in their districts, in Shuler's case despite the fact that the seat was Republican for 16 years before he won and that John McCain won in his district.
It would take a major tide shift toward the Republicans to get this district back next year, and there are a lot of other Congressional districts across the country being represented by Democrats that would flip before this one does. I think Mr. Kissell will be in Washington for a while.
Good luck with that. Kissell showed he was a remarkable candidate in 2006 by nearly pulling off the upset of Robin Hayes with very little money. And it's not like he squeaked by when he got the resources he needed to run a strong campaign...he won by ten points.
It should also be noted that Kissell's district is more Democratic at the federal level than Heath Shuler, Bob Etheridge, and Mike McIntyre's. All three of those guys appear to be unbeatable in their districts, in Shuler's case despite the fact that the seat was Republican for 16 years before he won and that John McCain won in his district.
It would take a major tide shift toward the Republicans to get this district back next year, and there are a lot of other Congressional districts across the country being represented by Democrats that would flip before this one does. I think Mr. Kissell will be in Washington for a while.
Deeds' Difficulty
In the parts of the state outside Hampton Roads, metro Richmond, and the suburban part of northern Virginia- the 276, 434, and 540 area codes- Creigh Deeds is dominating the Democratic race for Governor. He's getting 27% compared to 14% for Terry McAuliffe and only 5% for Brian Moran.
Geographically that's most of the state. But the problem for Deeds is that it's only 30% of the votes in the Democratic primary. And in the more urbanized and blue leaning sections of the state that are likely to include 70% of the electorate in June he's only at 8%, trailing McAuliffe at 25% and Moran at 24% by a significant amount.
It's not necessarily an issue for Deeds that voters in the most populated parts of the state don't like him so much as it is that they don't know him. While McAuliffe has 58% name recognition and Moran has 50% name recognition in the urban areas, Deeds' is only 32%. His ability to change that in the next few months will be vital to keep him from ending up with 'also ran' status while McAuliffe and Moran duke it out for the nomination.
Geographically that's most of the state. But the problem for Deeds is that it's only 30% of the votes in the Democratic primary. And in the more urbanized and blue leaning sections of the state that are likely to include 70% of the electorate in June he's only at 8%, trailing McAuliffe at 25% and Moran at 24% by a significant amount.
It's not necessarily an issue for Deeds that voters in the most populated parts of the state don't like him so much as it is that they don't know him. While McAuliffe has 58% name recognition and Moran has 50% name recognition in the urban areas, Deeds' is only 32%. His ability to change that in the next few months will be vital to keep him from ending up with 'also ran' status while McAuliffe and Moran duke it out for the nomination.
Obama's non-gains and low voter turnout
As we posted in November, there were six counties in North Carolina where Barack Obama did more than a point worse than John Kerry's performance in 2004. Other than the fact that they were all border states there was no clear unifying theme to explain why he did worse in those places when he did better than Kerry most everywhere else.
Democracy North Carolina's excellent new county by county analysis of voter turnout and engagement may help to provide another clue. All six of the counties were among the worst in the state for voter turnout. Cherokee County ranked 96th, Columbus County 90th, Richmond County 87th, Graham County 85th, Clay County 79th, and Camden County 65th.
One of Obama's strengths was how much excitement his campaign generated, but if it wasn't enough to get people out to vote in those counties it's perhaps not surprising that they were his weakest compared to Democratic performance in 2004.
Democracy North Carolina's excellent new county by county analysis of voter turnout and engagement may help to provide another clue. All six of the counties were among the worst in the state for voter turnout. Cherokee County ranked 96th, Columbus County 90th, Richmond County 87th, Graham County 85th, Clay County 79th, and Camden County 65th.
One of Obama's strengths was how much excitement his campaign generated, but if it wasn't enough to get people out to vote in those counties it's perhaps not surprising that they were his weakest compared to Democratic performance in 2004.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
The Rush Mailbag
I was surprised to hear from a friend I hadn't talked to in a long time on Friday: 'are you the Tom Jensen Rush Limbaugh was just talking about on his show?'
And that's how I found out he had gotten a third day of material out of our poll last week. Transcript here.
We've received a lot of phone calls and e-mails from fans of Rush over the last week. Here are some of the themes:
-A lot of Rush's listeners don't seem to get scientific polling. Lots of folks 'signing up' to be polled or asking what website they can visit to vote. Also a lot of folks saying the poll wasn't valid because we didn't call them personally. I guess the next time we do a poll about Rush we'll have to interview 100 million people or something to make sure we get everyone!
-Polling on Rush is unamerican. One example:
And that's how I found out he had gotten a third day of material out of our poll last week. Transcript here.
We've received a lot of phone calls and e-mails from fans of Rush over the last week. Here are some of the themes:
-A lot of Rush's listeners don't seem to get scientific polling. Lots of folks 'signing up' to be polled or asking what website they can visit to vote. Also a lot of folks saying the poll wasn't valid because we didn't call them personally. I guess the next time we do a poll about Rush we'll have to interview 100 million people or something to make sure we get everyone!
-Polling on Rush is unamerican. One example:
Who Cares????? So What????? Just Leave Rush Limbaugh Alone!!!He's a Great American, and he's awesome!!!!! I'll defend his Constitutional and God---Given Right to speak his mind, all I want to, for the rest of my natural life. He hasn't done anything to you, so just leave him be. Thank You. I am a Great American also!!! (but, I'm not so sure that you are)
All of us at PPP will just have to try harder to be 'Great Americans.'
We also heard from some of Rush's detractors:
We also heard from some of Rush's detractors:
Regarding the fact that more women than men have a negative view of flush er rush limbaugh. I have the answer as to why. Women are smarter. MikeFinally, some of our correspondents seemed just plain confused:
-and-
For Rush Slimeball to win friends and influence people is to keep his big, fat, pie hole shut. Who wants to hear an old drug addict spew hatred and lies?
Dear Rush -
I really enjoyed your speech to the RNC--you did a great job!!!Thank you for saying what we all needed to hear-I have been listening since the middle 80's & I listen every day & by the way I am a 69 year old WOMAN--Keep on talking!!!!
thank you
-and-TOday's Rush Limbaugh program as to Summit and women's disparity in polls, not once did you give a phone number on air to call in, and could not find it on line. I wanted to call in, but could not find phone number anywhere on his web-pages - did I miss it somewhere?
Well it has certainly been amusing if nothing else. Except maybe for the Rush lover who called my cell phone at 3:20 AM Friday night.
Women key in Virginia primary
Women are always a key demographic in a Democratic primary. Last year for the Presidential one in Virginia exit polls showed them making up 57% of the vote.
How Creigh Deeds, Terry McAuliffe, and Brian Moran are able to appeal to them over the next three months is likely to be critical in determining who ends up winning the Democratic nomination for Governor not just because they comprise such a large portion of the electorate but also because women have made a lot fewer firm conclusions than men about the candidates so far.
69% of women have no opinion of Deeds compared to 58% of men. 50% have no opinion of McAuliffe compared to 39% for men. The gap is smaller for Moran, with 56% of women and 55% of men not holding an opinion of him yet. Looking at the horse race, 49% of women are undecided compared to 42% of men.
The race is a gridlock among women just as it is overall, with McAuliffe leading Moran 20-19. If any of the candidates is able to get a leg up with this key Democratic constituency it would go a long way toward victory in June.
How Creigh Deeds, Terry McAuliffe, and Brian Moran are able to appeal to them over the next three months is likely to be critical in determining who ends up winning the Democratic nomination for Governor not just because they comprise such a large portion of the electorate but also because women have made a lot fewer firm conclusions than men about the candidates so far.
69% of women have no opinion of Deeds compared to 58% of men. 50% have no opinion of McAuliffe compared to 39% for men. The gap is smaller for Moran, with 56% of women and 55% of men not holding an opinion of him yet. Looking at the horse race, 49% of women are undecided compared to 42% of men.
The race is a gridlock among women just as it is overall, with McAuliffe leading Moran 20-19. If any of the candidates is able to get a leg up with this key Democratic constituency it would go a long way toward victory in June.
Crossover Appeal in North Carolina
Since December PPP has done approval or favorability ratings on seven different politicians. What we've found is that most folks receive highly partisan reviews: folks within their own party generally have a positive opinion of them and ones in the opposite party do not.
Here's how those folks stack up in terms of their favorability ratings across party lines:
A PPP analysis of our national polling conducted last week found that Cooper's 31% favorability rating with Republicans put him in the 90th percentile of the 40 politicians we've tested in states around the country so far in 2009. That's an unusually high level of crossover appeal. It's not a surprise that Cooper is the top choice of most Democrats to challenge Burr next year.
Burr comes in next at 21%. North Carolina is a strongly Democratic state, at least in terms of party identification, and any Republican who is successful statewide needs to be able to peel off a number of voters from the other party. He was able to do that against Erskine Bowles in 2004 but may have a harder time doing so again if he's challenged by the highly popular Cooper.
Other than those two, most of these politicians do not seem to have a high level of bipartisan appeal.
Here's how those folks stack up in terms of their favorability ratings across party lines:
| Roy Cooper | 31% |
| Richard Burr | 21% |
| Bev Perdue | 15% |
| Barack Obama | 12% |
| Heath Shuler | 11% |
| Jim Neal | 4% |
| Cal Cunningham | 2% |
A PPP analysis of our national polling conducted last week found that Cooper's 31% favorability rating with Republicans put him in the 90th percentile of the 40 politicians we've tested in states around the country so far in 2009. That's an unusually high level of crossover appeal. It's not a surprise that Cooper is the top choice of most Democrats to challenge Burr next year.
Burr comes in next at 21%. North Carolina is a strongly Democratic state, at least in terms of party identification, and any Republican who is successful statewide needs to be able to peel off a number of voters from the other party. He was able to do that against Erskine Bowles in 2004 but may have a harder time doing so again if he's challenged by the highly popular Cooper.
Other than those two, most of these politicians do not seem to have a high level of bipartisan appeal.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Ryall on Dole
Politics Magazine, via Dome, has a must read from Elizabeth Dole campaign manager Marty Ryall about the 'Godless Americans' ad and the campaign in general.
Mr. Ryall, may we remind you, somehow parlayed managing Bill '9%' Graham's hapless gubernatorial campaign in the primary into a job running Dole's campaign in the general.
Here are some of the highlights and my thoughts:
-He acknowledges the decision to do a huge early summer media buy to prop up Dole's numbers was a bad one. I've made that point for months. The thought that the DSCC would have just given up because Dole got a bump in June when it had already gone to so much effort to recruit Kay Hagan to challenge Dole and made an investment to help ensure she won the primary is ridiculous. Ryall also notes that the ads were very good, and I completely agree with him. Dole was at her best on the rare occasions when the campaign actually tried to portray her in a positive light rather than wasting all its energy with spurious attacks on Hagan. If they'd done more of that she might have had a chance.
-Excuses, excuses. More of the Republican whining about Obama hurting them so much down ballot in North Carolina. Five Republican Senators lost reelection last year. None of them lost by as much as Dole. In three of those states- New Hampshire, Oregon, and Minnesota- Obama won by at least nine points. In North Carolina he won by less than a point. Yet Dole lost by more than any of her colleagues. That has a lot more to do with what a good campaign the DSCC ran and what a bad campaign Dole ran than it does with Obama. (The other GOP Senate loser was Ted Stevens, no explanation necessary.)
-He makes the point again that they had to run the 'Godless' ad as a last resort because they were down by so much in the polls. I've made this point before, but both us and Hagan's pollster had her down by only 3-4 points before she ran that ad. We were in the field as late as the Tuesday and Wednesday before the election and found her down by just three points. By Saturday, after people had time to react to that ad, she was down by seven and she ended up losing by nine.
Ironically, Dole had actually been gaining in our polls the last few weeks before the election as she ran more positive ads about herself and reminded NC voters why they had originally liked her. If they'd done that a lot earlier maybe they could have won. But it looks like they were being informed by bad poll numbers. At least now I understand why they never attacked PPP the last two months of the campaign- what we were putting out was actually better than their assessment of the race!
I guess this piece is a nice CYA but the truth is that although Hagan would have won the election either way, the 'Godless' ad significantly increased her winning margin and destroyed Dole's legacy. If it makes the Dole operation feel better to claim it didn't matter, that's their perogative- it's just the culmination of many other things they were wrong about in relation to last year's campaign.
One other thing: Ryall refers to the folks running Dole's campaign as an 'all-star team.' That's an interesting take on a group that managed to drop 26 points in less than nine months with one of the most well known politicians in the country. Can anyone else think of a political race in the country last year where anything comparable to Dole's losing by nine points in November after leading by 17 in Feburary happened? I can't off hand. Even Obama only gained a little more than five points in North Carolina from his February standing despite spending a boatload of money and time here.
Mr. Ryall, may we remind you, somehow parlayed managing Bill '9%' Graham's hapless gubernatorial campaign in the primary into a job running Dole's campaign in the general.
Here are some of the highlights and my thoughts:
-He acknowledges the decision to do a huge early summer media buy to prop up Dole's numbers was a bad one. I've made that point for months. The thought that the DSCC would have just given up because Dole got a bump in June when it had already gone to so much effort to recruit Kay Hagan to challenge Dole and made an investment to help ensure she won the primary is ridiculous. Ryall also notes that the ads were very good, and I completely agree with him. Dole was at her best on the rare occasions when the campaign actually tried to portray her in a positive light rather than wasting all its energy with spurious attacks on Hagan. If they'd done more of that she might have had a chance.
-Excuses, excuses. More of the Republican whining about Obama hurting them so much down ballot in North Carolina. Five Republican Senators lost reelection last year. None of them lost by as much as Dole. In three of those states- New Hampshire, Oregon, and Minnesota- Obama won by at least nine points. In North Carolina he won by less than a point. Yet Dole lost by more than any of her colleagues. That has a lot more to do with what a good campaign the DSCC ran and what a bad campaign Dole ran than it does with Obama. (The other GOP Senate loser was Ted Stevens, no explanation necessary.)
-He makes the point again that they had to run the 'Godless' ad as a last resort because they were down by so much in the polls. I've made this point before, but both us and Hagan's pollster had her down by only 3-4 points before she ran that ad. We were in the field as late as the Tuesday and Wednesday before the election and found her down by just three points. By Saturday, after people had time to react to that ad, she was down by seven and she ended up losing by nine.
Ironically, Dole had actually been gaining in our polls the last few weeks before the election as she ran more positive ads about herself and reminded NC voters why they had originally liked her. If they'd done that a lot earlier maybe they could have won. But it looks like they were being informed by bad poll numbers. At least now I understand why they never attacked PPP the last two months of the campaign- what we were putting out was actually better than their assessment of the race!
I guess this piece is a nice CYA but the truth is that although Hagan would have won the election either way, the 'Godless' ad significantly increased her winning margin and destroyed Dole's legacy. If it makes the Dole operation feel better to claim it didn't matter, that's their perogative- it's just the culmination of many other things they were wrong about in relation to last year's campaign.
One other thing: Ryall refers to the folks running Dole's campaign as an 'all-star team.' That's an interesting take on a group that managed to drop 26 points in less than nine months with one of the most well known politicians in the country. Can anyone else think of a political race in the country last year where anything comparable to Dole's losing by nine points in November after leading by 17 in Feburary happened? I can't off hand. Even Obama only gained a little more than five points in North Carolina from his February standing despite spending a boatload of money and time here.
Same day registration gave Obama NC
Bob Hall and Democracy North Carolina have an excellent new analysis out today about county by county voting trends in the 2008 election that I'll delve into later, but one of the key facts in there is that 253,000 voters utilized same day registration.
Overall Obama won early voters 57-43, and since folks who used same day registration were 36% black it seems safe to say he won those ones by an even wider margin. But let's conservatively say he won the same day registrants by an identical 14 points to early voters in general. That would mean he picked up 35,000 votes on McCain with that group, a number much greater than Obama's overall 14,000 vote margin of victory in the state.
Now perhaps some of the folks who used same day registration would have registered during the standard period if that hadn't been an option- but I bet most of them would not have. One of the key moments for Obama's victory in the state may have come while he was still lagging Hillary in the polls during the summer of 2007, when the General Assembly passed same day registration.
Overall Obama won early voters 57-43, and since folks who used same day registration were 36% black it seems safe to say he won those ones by an even wider margin. But let's conservatively say he won the same day registrants by an identical 14 points to early voters in general. That would mean he picked up 35,000 votes on McCain with that group, a number much greater than Obama's overall 14,000 vote margin of victory in the state.
Now perhaps some of the folks who used same day registration would have registered during the standard period if that hadn't been an option- but I bet most of them would not have. One of the key moments for Obama's victory in the state may have come while he was still lagging Hillary in the polls during the summer of 2007, when the General Assembly passed same day registration.
Not much movement in Virginia
Terry McAuliffe 21
Brian Moran 19
Creigh Deeds 14
The big winner in the Virginia Democratic primary for Governor continues to be 'undecided.' 46% of voters have not made their minds up, down slightly from 53% in PPP's first monthly tracking poll of the race.
Last month McAuliffe and Moran were tied at 18% with Deeds further back at 11%. The basic contour of the race has not changed much over the last four weeks with McAuliffe and Deeds each picking up an additional three points and Moran gaining by one.
Helping McAuliffe to his small lead is holding the advantage among black voters, 26-16 over Moran. He has led with that demographic in both of our polls. He is particularly weak though with independent voters, carrying 11%, well behind both Deeds and Moran. He was similarly week in that demographic a month ago, carrying only 9%.
Moran and Deeds have the best net favorability ratings of the trio, each at +16. Moran is the more well known at 30/14 and Deeds' numbers are 26/10. McAuliffe has both the highest positives and negatives of the field, at 31/24. He's the only candidate that more than half of the likely primary electorate has developed an opinion of.
There's not going to be a lot of movement in this contest until the candidates start really ratcheting up their ad buys.
Full results here.
Brian Moran 19
Creigh Deeds 14
The big winner in the Virginia Democratic primary for Governor continues to be 'undecided.' 46% of voters have not made their minds up, down slightly from 53% in PPP's first monthly tracking poll of the race.
Last month McAuliffe and Moran were tied at 18% with Deeds further back at 11%. The basic contour of the race has not changed much over the last four weeks with McAuliffe and Deeds each picking up an additional three points and Moran gaining by one.
Helping McAuliffe to his small lead is holding the advantage among black voters, 26-16 over Moran. He has led with that demographic in both of our polls. He is particularly weak though with independent voters, carrying 11%, well behind both Deeds and Moran. He was similarly week in that demographic a month ago, carrying only 9%.
Moran and Deeds have the best net favorability ratings of the trio, each at +16. Moran is the more well known at 30/14 and Deeds' numbers are 26/10. McAuliffe has both the highest positives and negatives of the field, at 31/24. He's the only candidate that more than half of the likely primary electorate has developed an opinion of.
There's not going to be a lot of movement in this contest until the candidates start really ratcheting up their ad buys.
Full results here.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Virginia undecideds unusual?
We'll release the full poll tomorrow but one of the most striking things about our monthly look at the Democratic race for Governor in Virginia this time around is that 46% of likely primary voters continue to be undecided, a little more than three months before the election.
It got me to wondering how that level of indecision meshed with what we were finding in North Carolina at a similar point in the election cycle last year.
Three months before the Democratic primary for Governor last year only 20% remained undecided. Of course Richard Moore and Bev Perdue had each served in statewide office for eight years, in sharp contrast to Creigh Deeds, Brian Moran, and Terry McAuliffe this year in Virginia.
The Republican field for Governor last year may have been more comparable, with a field of candidates well known to political insiders but not necessarily the electorate at large. Even with that group though only 34% were undecided at a similar stage in the race.
I don't know if it's political fatigue from the Presidential election last year or what, but this primary doesn't seem to be grabbing people's attention much yet.
It got me to wondering how that level of indecision meshed with what we were finding in North Carolina at a similar point in the election cycle last year.
Three months before the Democratic primary for Governor last year only 20% remained undecided. Of course Richard Moore and Bev Perdue had each served in statewide office for eight years, in sharp contrast to Creigh Deeds, Brian Moran, and Terry McAuliffe this year in Virginia.
The Republican field for Governor last year may have been more comparable, with a field of candidates well known to political insiders but not necessarily the electorate at large. Even with that group though only 34% were undecided at a similar stage in the race.
I don't know if it's political fatigue from the Presidential election last year or what, but this primary doesn't seem to be grabbing people's attention much yet.
More from Elon
Elon has more of its newest numbers out today. The stuff that caught my attention:
-66% support for off shore drilling. That seems pretty steady with where it was last summer when gas prices were at their peak. We've been meaning to poll this and I had expected support to decrease with prices back at a more reasonable level but it doesn't look like it. We'll probably look at this on our next NC issues poll.
-Folks are actually pretty willing to spend some money for public transportation. 77% said they would support making commuter rail available in urban areas and 69% said they'd like a regional rail system in their own areas. It's generally a given that folks like that stuff if you don't talk about how to pay for it, but there's also 57-35 support for letting local governments use a half cent sales tax to pay for such projects. Charlotte voters have already made that choice, and it looks like if the legislature gives residents of the Triangle the same opportunity there could be a similar outcome.
-A slight plurality (47%) of respondents said they agreed with the moratorium on the death penalty, compared to 45% opposed. I am a little surprised about that given overall support for capital punishment in the state.
-50% support universal health care compared to 37% who prefer the current system.
-66% support for off shore drilling. That seems pretty steady with where it was last summer when gas prices were at their peak. We've been meaning to poll this and I had expected support to decrease with prices back at a more reasonable level but it doesn't look like it. We'll probably look at this on our next NC issues poll.
-Folks are actually pretty willing to spend some money for public transportation. 77% said they would support making commuter rail available in urban areas and 69% said they'd like a regional rail system in their own areas. It's generally a given that folks like that stuff if you don't talk about how to pay for it, but there's also 57-35 support for letting local governments use a half cent sales tax to pay for such projects. Charlotte voters have already made that choice, and it looks like if the legislature gives residents of the Triangle the same opportunity there could be a similar outcome.
-A slight plurality (47%) of respondents said they agreed with the moratorium on the death penalty, compared to 45% opposed. I am a little surprised about that given overall support for capital punishment in the state.
-50% support universal health care compared to 37% who prefer the current system.
Vote in the Poll
Ok folks, we're going to let you vote for where we poll this weekend again at the top of the page.
The choices are:
-Connecticut. We would poll Chris Dodd against Rob Simmons to see if Dodd's apparent new unpopularity actually could make him vulnerable against a Republican and also look at Richard Blumenthal against Simmons to see if Democrats might be better off with a retirement.
-Delaware. We would see how Beau Biden fares against Mike Castle to see if there's any chance Democrats don't keep this seat in 2010, and also see how John Carney might do against Castle in a contest for the state's House seat.
-Kentucky. We would look at how Dan Mongiardo, Jack Conway, and Crit Luallen would do against Jim Bunning and Trey Grayson. I know the NRSC said it would support Bunning last week but if he doesn't believe them, why should we? Hence the inclusion of Grayson.
Anyway, you can vote until Wednesday at 10 AM. Also, if there's anything else we should poll in any of these states leave a comment and we'll consider it.
The choices are:
-Connecticut. We would poll Chris Dodd against Rob Simmons to see if Dodd's apparent new unpopularity actually could make him vulnerable against a Republican and also look at Richard Blumenthal against Simmons to see if Democrats might be better off with a retirement.
-Delaware. We would see how Beau Biden fares against Mike Castle to see if there's any chance Democrats don't keep this seat in 2010, and also see how John Carney might do against Castle in a contest for the state's House seat.
-Kentucky. We would look at how Dan Mongiardo, Jack Conway, and Crit Luallen would do against Jim Bunning and Trey Grayson. I know the NRSC said it would support Bunning last week but if he doesn't believe them, why should we? Hence the inclusion of Grayson.
Anyway, you can vote until Wednesday at 10 AM. Also, if there's anything else we should poll in any of these states leave a comment and we'll consider it.
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