Daily Kos polled Johnny Isakson and produced pretty similarly mediocre numbers to what we found on him way back in November: a favorability/approval rating barely in positive territory and single digit leads against some opponents who have not shown any interest in running.
I actually think the situation for Isakson is probably worse even than they show. While they have only 12% of Georgians holding no opinion about him one way or the other, we found 45% with no opinion about him. For whatever reason I think the Kos polls tend to overestimate folks' name recognition. For instance they showed 93% of North Carolinians with an opinion of Richard Burr when we find only 65-70% with one and Civitas shows it even lower, around 50%. So I imagine Isakson is a blank slate to many Georgians in addition to having only slightly positive ratings from the ones who do know him.
By the time Democrats realized how vulnerable Saxby Chambliss was last year it was too late to get a real strong candidate- you really have to wonder how someone with a little more charisma than Jim Martin might have fared at the polls in November. Hopefully someone will see this strong opportunity and go for it.
Where should we poll next week?
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Madigan in rare company
On our Illinois poll 52% of Republicans said they view Lisa Madigan favorably.
That puts her in company only with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Delaware Governor Jack Markell, Delaware Congressman Mike Castle, and Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe as politicians who we've found are more popular than not with voters of the opposite political party over the last year.
Madigan and Cuomo may well end up having something else in common next year as politicans who were successfully able to primary incumbent Governors of their own party who took office due to scandals.
That puts her in company only with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Delaware Governor Jack Markell, Delaware Congressman Mike Castle, and Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe as politicians who we've found are more popular than not with voters of the opposite political party over the last year.
Madigan and Cuomo may well end up having something else in common next year as politicans who were successfully able to primary incumbent Governors of their own party who took office due to scandals.
Our Governor approval ratings
Here's the ratings on all the Governors we've looked at so far in 2009:
| Governor | Approval |
| Mike Beebe (D-AR) | 68/20 |
| Jack Markell (D-DE) | 62/17 |
| Pat Quinn (D-IL) | 49/25 |
| Ted Strickland (D-OH) | 48/35 |
| Steve Beshear (D-KY) | 47/37 |
| Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) | 46/40 |
| Bev Perdue (D-NC) | 41/40 |
| Rick Perry (R-TX) | 41/48 |
| Bill Ritter (D-CO) | 41/49 |
Our updated Senator approval ratings
Our chart, updated to include our Illinois and Colorado polls from the last couple weeks, is pasted below:
| Senator | Approval |
| Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) | 62/25 |
| Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) | 58/31 |
| Tom Carper (D-DE) | 57/26 |
| Kit Bond (R-MO) | 57/27 |
| Mark Pryor (D-AR) | 54/30 |
| John McCain (R-AZ) | 53/31 |
| Dick Durbin (D-IL) | 47/34 |
| Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) | 45/40 |
| Jim Webb (D-VA) | 44/33 |
| Mitch McConnell (R-KY) | 44/47 |
| Bill Nelson (D-FL) | 42/29 |
| Mark Udall (D-CO) | 41/46 |
| Ted Kaufman (D-DE) | 35/24 |
| Richard Burr (R-NC) | 35/31 |
| Michael Bennet (D-CO) | 34/41 |
| Kay Hagan (D-NC) | 33/33 |
| Michael Bennet (D-CO) | 33/21 |
| Johnny Isakson (R-GA) | 30/25 |
| George Voinovich (R-OH) | 30/38 |
| Jim Bunning (R-KY) | 28/54 |
| Mel Martinez (R-FL) | 23/37 |
| Roland Burris (D-IL) | 17/62 |
Illinois Senate: General Election
If by some chance Roland Burris was able to win the Democratic nomination for a full Senate term next year, the seat would likely go Republican. Mark Kirk leads him 53-19 in a hypothetical contest.
Burris' approval rating is just 17%, easily the lowest PPP has ever registered for any politician. In the contest against Kirk he gets just 34% even of the Democratic vote and trails 62-8 among independents.
It looks like Kirk has some potential to be competitive even if Burris is not the nominee though. He is tied 35-35 with Alexi Giannoulias in a hypothetical contest and leads Jan Schakowsky 37-33.
Those numbers are a little optimistic for Republicans because in each of those contests more than 30% of Democrats but fewer than 20% of GOP voters are undecided. That is likely a function of the uncertainly about what will happen with this seat next year from the Democrats' end and as that gap closes both Giannoulias and Schakowsky would lead Kirk. He would still be in striking distance though thanks to a double digit lead among independents in both of those contests.
If Lisa Madigan made a surprise decision to run for this seat it would be no contest, as she leads Kirk 49-33.
Full results here.
Burris' approval rating is just 17%, easily the lowest PPP has ever registered for any politician. In the contest against Kirk he gets just 34% even of the Democratic vote and trails 62-8 among independents.
It looks like Kirk has some potential to be competitive even if Burris is not the nominee though. He is tied 35-35 with Alexi Giannoulias in a hypothetical contest and leads Jan Schakowsky 37-33.
Those numbers are a little optimistic for Republicans because in each of those contests more than 30% of Democrats but fewer than 20% of GOP voters are undecided. That is likely a function of the uncertainly about what will happen with this seat next year from the Democrats' end and as that gap closes both Giannoulias and Schakowsky would lead Kirk. He would still be in striking distance though thanks to a double digit lead among independents in both of those contests.
If Lisa Madigan made a surprise decision to run for this seat it would be no contest, as she leads Kirk 49-33.
Full results here.
Illinois Governor: General Election
Lisa Madigan would start out with a strong lead against Republican Gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady, while the contest would be closer if current Governor Pat Quinn was nominated for a full term.
Madigan leads Brady 46-27, with Quinn holding a 39-32 advantage.
Madigan does better than Quinn largely because she is more popular among independents (getting 43% of the vote compared to 34% for Quinn) and Democrats (earning 67% compared to 58%.)
Brady is a blank slate to 61% of voters in the state with 23% holding a favorable opinion of him and 17% having an unfavorable one.
Quinn's overall approval rating is 49% with 27% holding no opinion about him and 25% disapproving of his work so far.
These numbers are artificially close because Quinn and Madigan are both under performing with black voters right now, as Madigan gets 51% and Quinn only 34% of the African American vote at this early point. They probably do each have some work to do to shore up their support with that important Democratic demographic, but those figures are likely to be upwards of at least 80% when election time does come around.
Full results here.
Madigan leads Brady 46-27, with Quinn holding a 39-32 advantage.
Madigan does better than Quinn largely because she is more popular among independents (getting 43% of the vote compared to 34% for Quinn) and Democrats (earning 67% compared to 58%.)
Brady is a blank slate to 61% of voters in the state with 23% holding a favorable opinion of him and 17% having an unfavorable one.
Quinn's overall approval rating is 49% with 27% holding no opinion about him and 25% disapproving of his work so far.
These numbers are artificially close because Quinn and Madigan are both under performing with black voters right now, as Madigan gets 51% and Quinn only 34% of the African American vote at this early point. They probably do each have some work to do to shore up their support with that important Democratic demographic, but those figures are likely to be upwards of at least 80% when election time does come around.
Full results here.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Republican ID
Taegan Goddard points to a couple recent national polls showing the percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Republicans down around 20%.
I don't think there's much doubt the GOP is a big old mess right now, but I don't think it's that bad either.
We've polled in eight states over the last two months and all of them had at least 28% of voters describe themselves as Republicans. Here's the breakdown:
Illinois, Delaware, and Minnesota are all pretty darn blue so if they're averaging 29% of voters identifying as Republicans the true number still has to be somewhere in the 30s.
Maybe this is some sort of twisted Bradley Effect where Republicans are more willing to share that allegiance in an IVR poll than a live interviewer one.
I don't think there's much doubt the GOP is a big old mess right now, but I don't think it's that bad either.
We've polled in eight states over the last two months and all of them had at least 28% of voters describe themselves as Republicans. Here's the breakdown:
| State | Republican Identification |
| | 44% |
| | 39% |
| | 38% |
| National | 33% |
| | 33% |
| | 31% |
| | 30% |
| | 29% |
| | 28% |
Illinois, Delaware, and Minnesota are all pretty darn blue so if they're averaging 29% of voters identifying as Republicans the true number still has to be somewhere in the 30s.
Maybe this is some sort of twisted Bradley Effect where Republicans are more willing to share that allegiance in an IVR poll than a live interviewer one.
Learning the Lessons of Dole
I was really glad to see about this event Kay Hagan is having on the stimulus in Durham next week.
On two fronts it's showing she hasn't forgotten who helped her get elected:
-She got a larger percentage of the vote in Durham County than anywhere else in the state and also had her second largest margin of victory there at over 68,500 votes (only considerably more populous Mecklenburg was bigger.)
-By focusing on how minority-owned businesses can benefit from the stimulus package (at the request of the NAACP) she's showing black leaders that she's not going to be a politician who only pays attention to their concerns at election time.
And it gives her an opportunity to show folks what she's doing on the economy, still by far and away the biggest issue for voters in the state.
These are the sorts of things Elizabeth Dole didn't do enough of. Hagan knows better than most people what flaws Dole had in the way she conducted herself as a Senator- those are the things that helped her get elected- and if she continues to learn from those lessons she might just be the rare North Carolina Senator who actually gets a second term.
On two fronts it's showing she hasn't forgotten who helped her get elected:
-She got a larger percentage of the vote in Durham County than anywhere else in the state and also had her second largest margin of victory there at over 68,500 votes (only considerably more populous Mecklenburg was bigger.)
-By focusing on how minority-owned businesses can benefit from the stimulus package (at the request of the NAACP) she's showing black leaders that she's not going to be a politician who only pays attention to their concerns at election time.
And it gives her an opportunity to show folks what she's doing on the economy, still by far and away the biggest issue for voters in the state.
These are the sorts of things Elizabeth Dole didn't do enough of. Hagan knows better than most people what flaws Dole had in the way she conducted herself as a Senator- those are the things that helped her get elected- and if she continues to learn from those lessons she might just be the rare North Carolina Senator who actually gets a second term.
Illinois Senate: Dreadful Numbers for Burris
PPP has never found an elected official getting more negative than positive reviews from voters within their own party. Until today.
Only 27% of folks who say they're likely to vote in the Democratic primary next year in Illinois approve of Roland Burris' job performance. 49% disapprove and 24% aren't sure.
Alexi Giannoulias appears to be the strongest candidate at this point unless Lisa Madigan changes her mind and decides to make the race.
Giannoulias leads Burris 49-20 in a head to head contest. When you put Jan Schakowsky into the mix Giannoulias gets 38%, followed by Schakowsky at 26%, and Burris at 16%.
One particularly interesting thing to note here is the black vote. A majority of black Democrats still say they approve of Burris' performance by a margin of 53/28. But they're not necessarily that committed to voting for him. While Burris does lead Giannoulias 48-30 in the two way contest among black voters, when Schakowsky is included Giannoulias actually leads among them with 39% to Burris' 36% and 14% for Schakowsky. Obivously if Burris decided to seek a full term getting near univeral black support would be critical to pretty much any hope of his winning, and right now that would not happen.
Giannoulias is a little better known statewide than Schakowsky, with 53% of likely primary voters holding a positive opinion of him and 37% with no opinion. For Schakowsky 42% have a favorable view of her and 50% don't have a stance one way or the other at this point.
The wild card in this race is whether Lisa Madigan changes her mind about whether she's interested in it. If she does, it appears to be hers for the taking. In a four way contest including Madigan she leads with 44% to 19% for Giannoulias, 13% for Burris, and 11% for Schakowsky. Our early poll numbers indicate she can probably get elected Governor too, but she would start out with a greater advantage for the Senate contest.
We'll release numbers tomorrow looking at how all of these folks match up with possible Republican contender Mark Kirk...in some of the contests it's a little closer than you might expect.
Full results here.
Only 27% of folks who say they're likely to vote in the Democratic primary next year in Illinois approve of Roland Burris' job performance. 49% disapprove and 24% aren't sure.
Alexi Giannoulias appears to be the strongest candidate at this point unless Lisa Madigan changes her mind and decides to make the race.
Giannoulias leads Burris 49-20 in a head to head contest. When you put Jan Schakowsky into the mix Giannoulias gets 38%, followed by Schakowsky at 26%, and Burris at 16%.
One particularly interesting thing to note here is the black vote. A majority of black Democrats still say they approve of Burris' performance by a margin of 53/28. But they're not necessarily that committed to voting for him. While Burris does lead Giannoulias 48-30 in the two way contest among black voters, when Schakowsky is included Giannoulias actually leads among them with 39% to Burris' 36% and 14% for Schakowsky. Obivously if Burris decided to seek a full term getting near univeral black support would be critical to pretty much any hope of his winning, and right now that would not happen.
Giannoulias is a little better known statewide than Schakowsky, with 53% of likely primary voters holding a positive opinion of him and 37% with no opinion. For Schakowsky 42% have a favorable view of her and 50% don't have a stance one way or the other at this point.
The wild card in this race is whether Lisa Madigan changes her mind about whether she's interested in it. If she does, it appears to be hers for the taking. In a four way contest including Madigan she leads with 44% to 19% for Giannoulias, 13% for Burris, and 11% for Schakowsky. Our early poll numbers indicate she can probably get elected Governor too, but she would start out with a greater advantage for the Senate contest.
We'll release numbers tomorrow looking at how all of these folks match up with possible Republican contender Mark Kirk...in some of the contests it's a little closer than you might expect.
Full results here.
Illinois Governor: Quinn popular but Madigan favored
Pat Quinn has a 56% approval rating among Illinois voters who say they would likely vote in a Democratic primary next year, with only 14% disapproving. But that level of support still may not be enough to hold off the immense popularity of Lisa Madigan if she decides to challenge him in the primary.
Madigan is viewed favorably by 74% of likely primary voters, and holds a 45-29 lead over Quinn in a possible contest.
Quinn has two basic problems. One is that even among voters who like him, a significant chunk of them like Madigan even more. He leads her just 44-38 with the folks who approve of his job performance. The second is that he's simply not as well known as Madigan. Among the 30% of respondents who don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion, 69% of them have one about Madigan one way or the other and she has a 48-11 lead with those.
This is not to say things are impossible for Quinn. He does get very strong numbers from those who do have an opinion about him and nine more months as Governor before the primary should certainly increase his visibility. But Madigan would still be pretty tough to beat if she decides to make the race.
Madigan leads Quinn across the ideological spectrum of the Democratic Party, but has a particularly strong 52-26 lead among voters describing themselves as liberals. Her lead is much better- 21 points- among women than it is among men- 9 points. Women can account for as high as 60% of the electorate in a primary. Quinn keeps the race to ten points with white voters but Madigan does particularly well with minorities- a 37 point lead among Hispanics and a 21 point one with African Americans.
We'll release the figures for general election match ups with Republican state senator Bill Brady tomorrow.
Full results here.
Madigan is viewed favorably by 74% of likely primary voters, and holds a 45-29 lead over Quinn in a possible contest.
Quinn has two basic problems. One is that even among voters who like him, a significant chunk of them like Madigan even more. He leads her just 44-38 with the folks who approve of his job performance. The second is that he's simply not as well known as Madigan. Among the 30% of respondents who don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion, 69% of them have one about Madigan one way or the other and she has a 48-11 lead with those.
This is not to say things are impossible for Quinn. He does get very strong numbers from those who do have an opinion about him and nine more months as Governor before the primary should certainly increase his visibility. But Madigan would still be pretty tough to beat if she decides to make the race.
Madigan leads Quinn across the ideological spectrum of the Democratic Party, but has a particularly strong 52-26 lead among voters describing themselves as liberals. Her lead is much better- 21 points- among women than it is among men- 9 points. Women can account for as high as 60% of the electorate in a primary. Quinn keeps the race to ten points with white voters but Madigan does particularly well with minorities- a 37 point lead among Hispanics and a 21 point one with African Americans.
We'll release the figures for general election match ups with Republican state senator Bill Brady tomorrow.
Full results here.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Political Impact of Furloughs
It will be interesting to see what impact Bev Perdue's executive order allowing furloughs for teachers and state employees has on her approval rating.
She has already seen a pretty significant drop in her approval from our poll in mid-March, before she announced her budget, to the one we did in mid-April. She went from a +9 spread at 44/35 to just a +1 at 41/40.
That drop did not come among Republicans, but with her political base. With Democrats her numbers dropped from 66/17 to 61/22 and the drop was particularly large among voters describing themselves as liberals who went from 70/14 approval to 63/22.
Today's move is likely to further antagonize these groups that were so key to her Gubernatorial bid, particularly in the primary, and who were already dropping some in their support of the Governor.
Of course the reality is that being Governor right now is inevitably going to involve some tough decisions, and it would be virtually impossible for her to both keep the state solvent and all of her allies happy. But unless Republicans and independents start to show a higher level of approval for her this move could push her approval rating into negative territory next month.
She has already seen a pretty significant drop in her approval from our poll in mid-March, before she announced her budget, to the one we did in mid-April. She went from a +9 spread at 44/35 to just a +1 at 41/40.
That drop did not come among Republicans, but with her political base. With Democrats her numbers dropped from 66/17 to 61/22 and the drop was particularly large among voters describing themselves as liberals who went from 70/14 approval to 63/22.
Today's move is likely to further antagonize these groups that were so key to her Gubernatorial bid, particularly in the primary, and who were already dropping some in their support of the Governor.
Of course the reality is that being Governor right now is inevitably going to involve some tough decisions, and it would be virtually impossible for her to both keep the state solvent and all of her allies happy. But unless Republicans and independents start to show a higher level of approval for her this move could push her approval rating into negative territory next month.
Another thought on Specter
Arlen Specter’s move today to the Democratic Party is pretty reflective of where moderates are finding a party home on a national basis. PPP’s national survey last week found that 45% of voters describing themselves as moderates were Democrats, 37% were independents, and just 18% were Republicans. 72% of Republicans now describe themselves as conservatives and given that it is not surprising that Specter would likely have lost in a primary to Pat Toomey next year and it’s not surprising that moderates increasingly feel like they don’t have a voice in the party.
Few Permanent Truths in Politics
Six weeks ago we were planning to do a poll on what Pennsylvanians would think about Arlen Specter switching parties and how he would fare as a Democrat at the polls.
Then he pretty unequivocally said he wasn't going to change parties so we didn't do it.
Sure wish we had that data today!
Right now almost all of the polling we're doing is speculative since there are very few things we definitely know about how the races will stack up in 2010. This particular 'flip flop' though is perhaps a reminder that sometimes we should just poll to see how things stack up regardless of what the principals involved have said about their plans.
We actually did sort of take that attitude with the Illinois poll we're releasing tomorrow, testing Lisa Madigan as a Senate candidate even though she hasn't shown any interest in the seat.
The only polling we have on Specter does speak pretty positively of his prospects though. We tested him against Chris Matthews back in November and found him trailing only 35-30 in the Democratic vote, a pretty exceptional showing. I know he says he's still going to oppose card check but I really haven't seen a ton of indication that issue resonates strongly with the Democratic rank and file- it's more of an inside the Beltway thing- so I don't think Specter should have too much trouble getting the party behind him.
Then he pretty unequivocally said he wasn't going to change parties so we didn't do it.
Sure wish we had that data today!
Right now almost all of the polling we're doing is speculative since there are very few things we definitely know about how the races will stack up in 2010. This particular 'flip flop' though is perhaps a reminder that sometimes we should just poll to see how things stack up regardless of what the principals involved have said about their plans.
We actually did sort of take that attitude with the Illinois poll we're releasing tomorrow, testing Lisa Madigan as a Senate candidate even though she hasn't shown any interest in the seat.
The only polling we have on Specter does speak pretty positively of his prospects though. We tested him against Chris Matthews back in November and found him trailing only 35-30 in the Democratic vote, a pretty exceptional showing. I know he says he's still going to oppose card check but I really haven't seen a ton of indication that issue resonates strongly with the Democratic rank and file- it's more of an inside the Beltway thing- so I don't think Specter should have too much trouble getting the party behind him.
Obama's standing with Republicans
It was interesting to note on our Illinois poll this week that even in his home state Barack Obama's approval rating is extremely polarized along party lines, with just 22% of GOP voters in the state giving him good marks.
That's actually not the best Obama has fared with Republicans in any of our polling over the last two months. Here's the breakdown:
There are some interesting implications in these numbers, particularly in Texas. Some Democrats point to the demographic shifts occurring in the state as possibly making it more hospitable for their candidates in the future, and while that may occur to some extent it's hard to make too much progress when it has some of the most partisan Republicans in the country.
It also points to the importance of Mike Castle in Delaware taking a moderate course, as much as it may sometimes frustrate some folks within his party. Not only is he representing an extremely Democratic state, but even the Republicans there are unusually supportive of the President.
That's actually not the best Obama has fared with Republicans in any of our polling over the last two months. Here's the breakdown:
| State | Obama Approval with Republicans |
| | 25% |
| | 23% |
| | 22% |
| National | 18% |
| | 18% |
| | 16% |
| | 15% |
| | 13% |
| | 8% |
There are some interesting implications in these numbers, particularly in Texas. Some Democrats point to the demographic shifts occurring in the state as possibly making it more hospitable for their candidates in the future, and while that may occur to some extent it's hard to make too much progress when it has some of the most partisan Republicans in the country.
It also points to the importance of Mike Castle in Delaware taking a moderate course, as much as it may sometimes frustrate some folks within his party. Not only is he representing an extremely Democratic state, but even the Republicans there are unusually supportive of the President.
Obama, Durbin Popular in Illinois
Barack Obama is putting up good approval numbers in his home state of Illinois, but they're about as polarized along party lines there as they are everywhere else, our newest numbers find.
He gets good marks from 61% of voters in the state, with 31% saying they disapprove of his performance. 91% of Democrats but only 22% of Republicans give him their approval. He's also earning strong marks from independents, with 55% of them saying he's doing a good job to only 32% who express the opposite opinion.
Obama's 22% rating from Republicans is slightly better than the 18% we recently found for him on a national basis but indicates that even in the state he spent four years representing in the Senate he's not getting a ton of crossover support for his work so far.
Obama is not surprisingly getting some of his best overall reviews from two of the groups that give him his highest levels of support last year. 88% of African Americans and 73% of voters under 30 are happy with the job he's done so far.
Dick Durbin's approval rating is 47% with 34% disapproving and 19% having no opinion. That ranks him 7th for home state popularity of 22 Senators PPP has done approval ratings for in the last year. It's interesting to note that while Obama's approval is a net +23 among independents, Durbin's is split right down the middle, perhaps an indication of voter unhappiness with Congress.
Full results here.
He gets good marks from 61% of voters in the state, with 31% saying they disapprove of his performance. 91% of Democrats but only 22% of Republicans give him their approval. He's also earning strong marks from independents, with 55% of them saying he's doing a good job to only 32% who express the opposite opinion.
Obama's 22% rating from Republicans is slightly better than the 18% we recently found for him on a national basis but indicates that even in the state he spent four years representing in the Senate he's not getting a ton of crossover support for his work so far.
Obama is not surprisingly getting some of his best overall reviews from two of the groups that give him his highest levels of support last year. 88% of African Americans and 73% of voters under 30 are happy with the job he's done so far.
Dick Durbin's approval rating is 47% with 34% disapproving and 19% having no opinion. That ranks him 7th for home state popularity of 22 Senators PPP has done approval ratings for in the last year. It's interesting to note that while Obama's approval is a net +23 among independents, Durbin's is split right down the middle, perhaps an indication of voter unhappiness with Congress.
Full results here.
Monday, April 27, 2009
More on Race and Ideology
A couple weeks ago I commented on the interesting fact that contrary to conventional wisdom, more black voters in North Carolina describe themselves as conservatives than liberals.
I've been tracking this on some of our other polls too and the trend continues:
-In Illinois, where we'll be releasing poll results from Tuesday to Thursday, 54% of African Americans identify as moderates, 25% as conservatives, and 21% as liberals.
-On our national poll last week the breakdown was 55% moderates, 30% conservatives, and 15% liberals.
I think the biggest implication of this is for Democratic primaries: running as the 'left' candidate is not necessarily a good path to winning the black vote, so important in many states.
It also makes you wonder how much better Republicans could do if they were able to shed the racist image they've built up over the years with many black voters.
I've been tracking this on some of our other polls too and the trend continues:
-In Illinois, where we'll be releasing poll results from Tuesday to Thursday, 54% of African Americans identify as moderates, 25% as conservatives, and 21% as liberals.
-On our national poll last week the breakdown was 55% moderates, 30% conservatives, and 15% liberals.
I think the biggest implication of this is for Democratic primaries: running as the 'left' candidate is not necessarily a good path to winning the black vote, so important in many states.
It also makes you wonder how much better Republicans could do if they were able to shed the racist image they've built up over the years with many black voters.
What the conservative Republicans think
Last week we looked at what moderate Republicans think about some of their most likely 2012 Presidential candidates, so today we'll look at the conservatives:
The most popular is easily Sarah Palin. 85% have a positive opinion of her compared to only 10% who have a negative one.
In the middle with nearly identical numbers are Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee. Both are viewed favorably by 71% with 13% holding an unfavorable opinion of Gingrich and 14% doing the same for Huckabee.
By far the least popular among conservative Republicans is Mitt Romney, with a 65% favorability rating and 17% dissenting.
When it comes to the horse race against Obama though there's a curious disconnect with the favorability numbers. Huckabee does the best, getting 86% against the President, followed by Gingrich at 85% and Romney at 80%. Palin actually does the worst on that count, getting 78%.
What does that mean? That there are a decent number of Republicans who really like Palin, but don't necessarily consider her to be Presidential timber. That could make a possible candidacy very difficult for her.
The most popular is easily Sarah Palin. 85% have a positive opinion of her compared to only 10% who have a negative one.
In the middle with nearly identical numbers are Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee. Both are viewed favorably by 71% with 13% holding an unfavorable opinion of Gingrich and 14% doing the same for Huckabee.
By far the least popular among conservative Republicans is Mitt Romney, with a 65% favorability rating and 17% dissenting.
When it comes to the horse race against Obama though there's a curious disconnect with the favorability numbers. Huckabee does the best, getting 86% against the President, followed by Gingrich at 85% and Romney at 80%. Palin actually does the worst on that count, getting 78%.
What does that mean? That there are a decent number of Republicans who really like Palin, but don't necessarily consider her to be Presidential timber. That could make a possible candidacy very difficult for her.
Notes on Elon's Latest
A few things caught my attention in today's release from Elon:
-The first is that by a slight margin more North Carolinians think the federal government regulates business too little (35.1%) than regulates it too much (34.8%). I would not necessarily have expected that in this business friendly state.
-It's a different story when it comes to business and labor though. 51% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of labor unions compared to 31% who have a favorable one. When respondents were asked generally whether they think unions or business are in the right when there's a dispute 47% say business and 26% say unions. And by a 50-36 margin they think unions have a negative impact rather than a positive one on the economy.
I don't always put a ton of stock in Elon polls, more than anything else because they don't release full demographic breakdowns on who they interview, but these numbers generally back up similar private polling we've conducted.
Just another reminder that recent voting patterns notwithstanding we are still a pretty conservative state.
-63% of South Carolinians say they would have told Mark Sanford to take the state's share of the stimulus money, which is not surprising, and shows even in that conservative state some of his decisions are increasingly being seen as goofball. A quixotic Sanford Presidential bid would be entertaining to watch though.
-The first is that by a slight margin more North Carolinians think the federal government regulates business too little (35.1%) than regulates it too much (34.8%). I would not necessarily have expected that in this business friendly state.
-It's a different story when it comes to business and labor though. 51% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of labor unions compared to 31% who have a favorable one. When respondents were asked generally whether they think unions or business are in the right when there's a dispute 47% say business and 26% say unions. And by a 50-36 margin they think unions have a negative impact rather than a positive one on the economy.
I don't always put a ton of stock in Elon polls, more than anything else because they don't release full demographic breakdowns on who they interview, but these numbers generally back up similar private polling we've conducted.
Just another reminder that recent voting patterns notwithstanding we are still a pretty conservative state.
-63% of South Carolinians say they would have told Mark Sanford to take the state's share of the stimulus money, which is not surprising, and shows even in that conservative state some of his decisions are increasingly being seen as goofball. A quixotic Sanford Presidential bid would be entertaining to watch though.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Perdue in Charlotte
Ancedotally Bev Perdue has been getting good reviews in Charlotte since she took office. But the statistics back it up too.
Perdue's approval rating in the region has been better than it is overall statewide on our last three polls. In February she was at +11 statewide but +17 in Charlotte. In March it was +9 throughout the state and +13 in Charlotte. Our most recent survey showed a +1 for everyone and a +4 in Charlotte. On average that means she's doing four points better in the region than she is in North Carolina as a whole.
That's somewhat surprising. Our analysis in February showed that Perdue won every tv market in the state last fall except Charlotte where she lost 57-41.
Her strong standing there speaks to her outreach efforts since the election, but it may speak to something else as well: the results in greater Charlotte last year probably had a lot more to do with people liking Pat McCrory than they did with them disliking Bev Perdue. There may have been some 95th percentile followers of politics who really gave thought to the possibility of eastern North Carolina benefiting at the expense of Charlotte if Perdue was elected, but I think for the most part folks just knew McCrory and liked him rather than the region's vote really being an indictment of the Governor.
Perdue's approval rating in the region has been better than it is overall statewide on our last three polls. In February she was at +11 statewide but +17 in Charlotte. In March it was +9 throughout the state and +13 in Charlotte. Our most recent survey showed a +1 for everyone and a +4 in Charlotte. On average that means she's doing four points better in the region than she is in North Carolina as a whole.
That's somewhat surprising. Our analysis in February showed that Perdue won every tv market in the state last fall except Charlotte where she lost 57-41.
Her strong standing there speaks to her outreach efforts since the election, but it may speak to something else as well: the results in greater Charlotte last year probably had a lot more to do with people liking Pat McCrory than they did with them disliking Bev Perdue. There may have been some 95th percentile followers of politics who really gave thought to the possibility of eastern North Carolina benefiting at the expense of Charlotte if Perdue was elected, but I think for the most part folks just knew McCrory and liked him rather than the region's vote really being an indictment of the Governor.
Moderate Republicans want more choices
Our national poll yesterday found that moderate Republicans weren't all that fond of any of the folks currently mentioned as top GOP candidates for 2012.
Mike Huckabee did the best of the bunch, with 54% viewing him favorably. For Sarah Palin it was 53%, then 46% for Mitt Romney, and 42% for Newt Gingrich.
When it came to matching them up with Obama Huckabee led 56-32, Romney was up 53-29, Palin had a 55-35 advantage, and Gingrich was up 49-36.
Suffice it to say there's no way Barack Obama is going to lose reelection if he can pull a third of the vote from moderate Republicans. In a country with a significant Democratic identification advantage it's going to be very hard for any GOP candidate who can't pull at least 90% of the party's vote to be successful.
That doesn't mean the moderate wing of the Republican Party is necessarily going to have any luck getting a candidate it finds more acceptable as the party's nominee in 2012. Our survey showed only 25% of Republicans identified themselves as moderates. 72% of the party faithful are conservatives, and 3% are liberals still holding on.
Mike Huckabee did the best of the bunch, with 54% viewing him favorably. For Sarah Palin it was 53%, then 46% for Mitt Romney, and 42% for Newt Gingrich.
When it came to matching them up with Obama Huckabee led 56-32, Romney was up 53-29, Palin had a 55-35 advantage, and Gingrich was up 49-36.
Suffice it to say there's no way Barack Obama is going to lose reelection if he can pull a third of the vote from moderate Republicans. In a country with a significant Democratic identification advantage it's going to be very hard for any GOP candidate who can't pull at least 90% of the party's vote to be successful.
That doesn't mean the moderate wing of the Republican Party is necessarily going to have any luck getting a candidate it finds more acceptable as the party's nominee in 2012. Our survey showed only 25% of Republicans identified themselves as moderates. 72% of the party faithful are conservatives, and 3% are liberals still holding on.
Closing the book on Colorado
My final thoughts on Colorado this week:
-I am pretty sure Michael Bennet will get elected to a full term. His numbers aren't that great right now but he's done a good job of fundraising and when he gets to go on tv next year he should be able to convince the voters in the state, most of whom do not know a ton about him, that he deserves to stay. That's particularly helped by the very weak GOP candidate field. If a Bill Owens got into the race it would be a different story but it doesn't look like he's going to.
-That said, I'm not sure why folks were so shocked that Bennet's numbers this week weren't setting the world on fire. Just because Colorado went well for the Democrats the last few election cycles doesn't mean it's all the sudden a deep blue state. Last summer we showed Ken Salazar's approval rating around 38 or 39 percent. Why would Bennet's be better when he's never run for office before? It's not at all unreasonable to think that a political neophyte would not just coast to election in a state that five or six years ago we might have thought of as 'red.'
-I think Bill Ritter is probably more in trouble than Bennet. His numbers have not been very good for a while- last summer Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli wrote a column about how Rasmussen showed his approval at 45%. Voter opinions about him are likely to be more entrenched than those of Bennet because Governors have more visibility and because Ritter has been prominent on the Colorado political scene longer. That said, I remember seeing some pretty bad approval ratings in 2005 for Governors who ended up doing fine at the polls in 2006 so it's too early to make any real definite conclusions.
We'll poll Colorado again probably in July and see what the trends are.
-I am pretty sure Michael Bennet will get elected to a full term. His numbers aren't that great right now but he's done a good job of fundraising and when he gets to go on tv next year he should be able to convince the voters in the state, most of whom do not know a ton about him, that he deserves to stay. That's particularly helped by the very weak GOP candidate field. If a Bill Owens got into the race it would be a different story but it doesn't look like he's going to.
-That said, I'm not sure why folks were so shocked that Bennet's numbers this week weren't setting the world on fire. Just because Colorado went well for the Democrats the last few election cycles doesn't mean it's all the sudden a deep blue state. Last summer we showed Ken Salazar's approval rating around 38 or 39 percent. Why would Bennet's be better when he's never run for office before? It's not at all unreasonable to think that a political neophyte would not just coast to election in a state that five or six years ago we might have thought of as 'red.'
-I think Bill Ritter is probably more in trouble than Bennet. His numbers have not been very good for a while- last summer Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli wrote a column about how Rasmussen showed his approval at 45%. Voter opinions about him are likely to be more entrenched than those of Bennet because Governors have more visibility and because Ritter has been prominent on the Colorado political scene longer. That said, I remember seeing some pretty bad approval ratings in 2005 for Governors who ended up doing fine at the polls in 2006 so it's too early to make any real definite conclusions.
We'll poll Colorado again probably in July and see what the trends are.
Our liberal 'bias'
In recent days we've been criticized by the chair of the Colorado Democratic Party, Michael Bennet's campaign manager, Blanche Lincoln, and the North Carolina Republican Party sent out a press release touting our results.
The truth is it's been happening because we're doing just what we've always done- releasing numbers on key things around the country whether they're good for Democrats or not. It just happened that last year almost all of the news was good for Democrats. Most of it has been so far in 2009 as well, but there has been some bad news and now we're getting it from our own side just like we always have from the Republicans.
That's just part of the business. There are very few folks out there who truly judge polls and pollsters on their merit or track record- whether a poll 'sucks' or not pretty much depends on whether you like the results. It gets a little annoying some times but if you can't deal with it, polling probably isn't the right profession for you.
The truth is it's been happening because we're doing just what we've always done- releasing numbers on key things around the country whether they're good for Democrats or not. It just happened that last year almost all of the news was good for Democrats. Most of it has been so far in 2009 as well, but there has been some bad news and now we're getting it from our own side just like we always have from the Republicans.
That's just part of the business. There are very few folks out there who truly judge polls and pollsters on their merit or track record- whether a poll 'sucks' or not pretty much depends on whether you like the results. It gets a little annoying some times but if you can't deal with it, polling probably isn't the right profession for you.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Ritter in trouble
Bill Ritter's approval numbers have gone into negative territory in Colorado, with 49% of voters in the state saying they disapprove of his job performance compared to 41% who say they like what he's doing.
Ritter's standing has seen a gradual drop over our last three polls of the state, from a 49/36 spread in mid-December to a 47/40 one in late January to today's numbers.
There isn't really any one place you can point to explain the drop in his popularity. He's seen a drop among Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
He trails former Congressman Scott McInnis 48-41 in a possible contest. McInnis is viewed favorably by 32% of voters in the state, the same number we found when we polled on him as a possible Senate candidate back in January.
McInnis leads the hypothetical match largely because he has his party more unified around him than Ritter does. While 81% of Republicans say they would vote for McInnis just 73% of Democrats commit to Ritter. Independents are basically a wash.
Ritter does lead another potential GOP candidate, Josh Penry, 42-40.
It's a long way until November 2010, but for Bill Ritter reelection is no guarantee.
Full results here.
Ritter's standing has seen a gradual drop over our last three polls of the state, from a 49/36 spread in mid-December to a 47/40 one in late January to today's numbers.
There isn't really any one place you can point to explain the drop in his popularity. He's seen a drop among Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
He trails former Congressman Scott McInnis 48-41 in a possible contest. McInnis is viewed favorably by 32% of voters in the state, the same number we found when we polled on him as a possible Senate candidate back in January.
McInnis leads the hypothetical match largely because he has his party more unified around him than Ritter does. While 81% of Republicans say they would vote for McInnis just 73% of Democrats commit to Ritter. Independents are basically a wash.
Ritter does lead another potential GOP candidate, Josh Penry, 42-40.
It's a long way until November 2010, but for Bill Ritter reelection is no guarantee.
Full results here.
More on Party and Ideology
In our national survey:
78% of liberals identified as Democrats, 6% as Republicans, and 16% as independents.
21% of conservatives identified as Democrats, 58% as Republicans, and 21% as independents.
As previously noted, 45% of moderates identified as Democrats, 18% as Republicans, and 37% as independents.
78% of liberals identified as Democrats, 6% as Republicans, and 16% as independents.
21% of conservatives identified as Democrats, 58% as Republicans, and 21% as independents.
As previously noted, 45% of moderates identified as Democrats, 18% as Republicans, and 37% as independents.
2012 President Survey
Is it too early to poll Barack Obama against potential opponents in 2012? Sure. But that doesn't mean people don't find it interesting, and it gives us something to track against moving forward so here goes:
On our newest national survey we looked at Obama against Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney.
Huckabee fares the best of the top Republican contenders at this point in time, trailing Obama 49-42. That margin is basically the same as what Obama won by against John McCain in November. Huckabee also has the best favorability numbers of the Republican quartet at 42/34. Even after running for President last year a quarter of the country doesn't have an opinion about him one way or the other.
Sarah Palin's numbers are an interesting conundrum. She easily has the best favorability among Republicans voters, with 76% saying they have a positive opinion of her. The other three range from 60-67 with the party base. But she also has the largest percentage of GOP voters- 21%- who say they would vote for Obama if she ended up being the party nominee. So for the folks in the party who don't like her that feeling is strong enough they'd rather vote for a Democrat. It adds up to a 12 point deficit for her, 53-41. Overall the electorate has a negative opinion of Palin, 42/49.
The low 60% favorability rating among GOP voters belongs to Mitt Romney, certainly an indication that securing the nomination is likely to once again be a struggle for him. He is viewed favorably by the largest numbers of Democrats for any of the Republican candidates in the survey, at 27%. He trails Obama 50-39.
The weakest of the potential Republicans at this very early stage is Newt Gingrich, who despite being out of the national spotlight for ten years still appears to have a lot of people who don't think much of him. 36% of voters in the country have a favorable opinion of him with 44% saying it's unfavorable. It's interesting that more voters have a take one way or the other on Gingrich than on Huckabee and Romney who ran for President just last year. Gingrich earned his fame as a partisan warrior and perhaps as a result of that he gets the lowest level of crossover popularity from Democrats, as only 15% of them say they view him positively.
Obama's approval is at 53% with 41% disapproving. Those might not be as good as some of his numbers earlier in the year but he's certainly in solid shape politically overall.
Full results here.
On our newest national survey we looked at Obama against Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney.
Huckabee fares the best of the top Republican contenders at this point in time, trailing Obama 49-42. That margin is basically the same as what Obama won by against John McCain in November. Huckabee also has the best favorability numbers of the Republican quartet at 42/34. Even after running for President last year a quarter of the country doesn't have an opinion about him one way or the other.
Sarah Palin's numbers are an interesting conundrum. She easily has the best favorability among Republicans voters, with 76% saying they have a positive opinion of her. The other three range from 60-67 with the party base. But she also has the largest percentage of GOP voters- 21%- who say they would vote for Obama if she ended up being the party nominee. So for the folks in the party who don't like her that feeling is strong enough they'd rather vote for a Democrat. It adds up to a 12 point deficit for her, 53-41. Overall the electorate has a negative opinion of Palin, 42/49.
The low 60% favorability rating among GOP voters belongs to Mitt Romney, certainly an indication that securing the nomination is likely to once again be a struggle for him. He is viewed favorably by the largest numbers of Democrats for any of the Republican candidates in the survey, at 27%. He trails Obama 50-39.
The weakest of the potential Republicans at this very early stage is Newt Gingrich, who despite being out of the national spotlight for ten years still appears to have a lot of people who don't think much of him. 36% of voters in the country have a favorable opinion of him with 44% saying it's unfavorable. It's interesting that more voters have a take one way or the other on Gingrich than on Huckabee and Romney who ran for President just last year. Gingrich earned his fame as a partisan warrior and perhaps as a result of that he gets the lowest level of crossover popularity from Democrats, as only 15% of them say they view him positively.
Obama's approval is at 53% with 41% disapproving. Those might not be as good as some of his numbers earlier in the year but he's certainly in solid shape politically overall.
Full results here.
Senate Dems having trouble with independents?
There were two main reasons for the bad polling numbers we released on Michael Bennet yesterday. The first is that a lot of Hispanics are not happy about him. Overall 23% of the Democrats we polled were Hispanic. But among the Democrats who said they disapproved of Bennet's performance so far, 46% were Hispanic. What that mean was there were more Democrats (16%) who said they didn't like what Bennet was doing than there were Republicans (11%) who said they did like it.
That makes independents key to Bennet's standing in the closely divided state, and his numbers weren't very good with them (32/43).
We've done approval ratings on eight Democratic Senators over the last six weeks, and even though their average review with all voters is a net +12, the average with independents is just barely in positive territory at +.125:
This is a small sample but the fact that all eight of these folks are doing worse among independents than their overall approval numbers is a trend we will certainly continue to watch over the course of our polling this year, and it could have implications for 2010.
That makes independents key to Bennet's standing in the closely divided state, and his numbers weren't very good with them (32/43).
We've done approval ratings on eight Democratic Senators over the last six weeks, and even though their average review with all voters is a net +12, the average with independents is just barely in positive territory at +.125:
| Senator | Overall Approval | Approval w/ Indys | Difference |
| Michael Bennet | -7 | -11 | 4 |
| Mark Udall | -5 | -7 | 2 |
| Amy Klobuchar | +37 | +33 | 4 |
| Kay Hagan | Even | -11 | 11 |
| Blanche Lincoln | +5 | -19 | 24 |
| Mark Pryor | +24 | Even | 24 |
| Tom Carper | +31 | +20 | 11 |
| Ted Kaufman | +11 | -4 | 15 |
This is a small sample but the fact that all eight of these folks are doing worse among independents than their overall approval numbers is a trend we will certainly continue to watch over the course of our polling this year, and it could have implications for 2010.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Obama doing well with conservative Dems in NC
Barack Obama trailed in the polls in North Carolina for most of last year, until the financial crisis really heated up in September. If you had to point to a single reason for his difficulty it would probably be the fact that he was having trouble shoring up support within his own party.
In our last three polls before mid-September Obama was receiving 69, 73, and 76 percent of the Democratic vote, losing many of the conservative Democrats to John McCain that had precluded the party's Presidential candidate from taking the state since 1976.
When the economy started really going bad a good portion of Democrats who might have voted against Obama because of his stances on social issues or even his race ended up deciding to give him their support based on pocketbook issues. Our final three polls before the election showed him winning 79, 81, and 82% of the Democratic vote.
I've been interested since Obama took office to see if he's holding up that level of support within his own party, and more specifically from conservative Democrats. And the answer is a definite yes.
On our last three approval polls Obama has had 82, 84, and 85% levels of approval from Democrats. That's better than he did at the polls, so it means he's held on not only to the folks who were leaning against him until the financial crisis but is also earning approval from some people within his party who didn't vote for him last fall.
His approval rating among conservative Democrats is 60%, perhaps not great, but a better standing than most national Democratic politicians have had with that group over the years.
It all adds up to a 54% approval rating.
In our last three polls before mid-September Obama was receiving 69, 73, and 76 percent of the Democratic vote, losing many of the conservative Democrats to John McCain that had precluded the party's Presidential candidate from taking the state since 1976.
When the economy started really going bad a good portion of Democrats who might have voted against Obama because of his stances on social issues or even his race ended up deciding to give him their support based on pocketbook issues. Our final three polls before the election showed him winning 79, 81, and 82% of the Democratic vote.
I've been interested since Obama took office to see if he's holding up that level of support within his own party, and more specifically from conservative Democrats. And the answer is a definite yes.
On our last three approval polls Obama has had 82, 84, and 85% levels of approval from Democrats. That's better than he did at the polls, so it means he's held on not only to the folks who were leaning against him until the financial crisis but is also earning approval from some people within his party who didn't vote for him last fall.
His approval rating among conservative Democrats is 60%, perhaps not great, but a better standing than most national Democratic politicians have had with that group over the years.
It all adds up to a 54% approval rating.
Bennet's Numbers
Some blogger in Colorado whacks our poll today, saying there's no way 75% of voters in the state really have an opinion about Michael Bennet.
I think that's probably true, but it doesn't mean there's anything wrong with our poll. We choose to include party labels whenever we do approval or favorability ratings on pretty much any politician. That's because for a lot of voters party labels go a lot further toward their perceptions of elected officials than anything specific to the individuals themselves. So there were probably a lot of Republicans in this poll who don't know much about Bennet but disapprove of him because he's a Democrat and a lot of Democrats who don't know much about him but said they approved of his work for the same reason. If you don't include party label you probably get more than 50% with no opinion, but since voters making their decisions based solely on party labels and little else is a real fact in politics we give them when we're polling.
As for all the other nasty stuff this particular blogger says about us, the truth is we've released nine or ten public polls in Colorado over the last year and I don't remember them expressing all these concerns about us the other times so it's pretty clearly just complaining when you don't like the results rather than a true issue with PPP. Somebody in Colorado came into our site last night googling for negative information about us and I guess this was probably the culprit. Just goes with the business. Our final pre-election poll last year there showed Obama winning by ten points, pretty much right on the mark.
I think that's probably true, but it doesn't mean there's anything wrong with our poll. We choose to include party labels whenever we do approval or favorability ratings on pretty much any politician. That's because for a lot of voters party labels go a lot further toward their perceptions of elected officials than anything specific to the individuals themselves. So there were probably a lot of Republicans in this poll who don't know much about Bennet but disapprove of him because he's a Democrat and a lot of Democrats who don't know much about him but said they approved of his work for the same reason. If you don't include party label you probably get more than 50% with no opinion, but since voters making their decisions based solely on party labels and little else is a real fact in politics we give them when we're polling.
As for all the other nasty stuff this particular blogger says about us, the truth is we've released nine or ten public polls in Colorado over the last year and I don't remember them expressing all these concerns about us the other times so it's pretty clearly just complaining when you don't like the results rather than a true issue with PPP. Somebody in Colorado came into our site last night googling for negative information about us and I guess this was probably the culprit. Just goes with the business. Our final pre-election poll last year there showed Obama winning by ten points, pretty much right on the mark.
Bennet standing a little shaky
Almost four months after being appointed to replace Ken Salazar in the US Senate, Michael Bennet still has a lot of work to do to appeal to Colorado voters in advance of seeking reelection next year.
41% of voters say they disapprove of Bennet's performance so far, with just 34% saying they approve. He has more Democrats (16%) who disapprove than there are Republicans (11%) who express support for his work. He also has negative numbers (32/43) with independents.
It appears one of Bennet's problems may be residual unhappiness from Hispanic voters that he was appointed to replace Ken Salazar instead of another Latino. His approval with them is 36/45, compared to 58/36 for Barack Obama in the state. That's a 31 point disparity in the margin for the two politicians of the same party.
The good news for Bennet is that none of his most likely opponents are particularly well known or well liked either. Ryan Frazier, Ken Buck, and Josh Penry all have net negative favorability and are unknown to at least 50% of voters in the state. The only one with significant statewide name recognition is Bob Beauprez, and his favorability numbers are pretty dismal at 33/43.
Bennet leads three of the four in hypothetical contests, 39-35 over Frazier, 40-34 over Buck, and 41-34 over Penry. Beauprez leads him 43-42.
Bennet hasn't had the opportunity yet to define himself positively to the voters in a campaign the way most Senators have, and these numbers seem like they will inevitably improve. Nonetheless it is clear that his reelection is by no means a certainty, and given that it is somewhat surprising that no higher tier Republican candidates have entered the race. This has to be considered one of the better opportunities for a GOP pickup next year.
Full results here.
41% of voters say they disapprove of Bennet's performance so far, with just 34% saying they approve. He has more Democrats (16%) who disapprove than there are Republicans (11%) who express support for his work. He also has negative numbers (32/43) with independents.
It appears one of Bennet's problems may be residual unhappiness from Hispanic voters that he was appointed to replace Ken Salazar instead of another Latino. His approval with them is 36/45, compared to 58/36 for Barack Obama in the state. That's a 31 point disparity in the margin for the two politicians of the same party.
The good news for Bennet is that none of his most likely opponents are particularly well known or well liked either. Ryan Frazier, Ken Buck, and Josh Penry all have net negative favorability and are unknown to at least 50% of voters in the state. The only one with significant statewide name recognition is Bob Beauprez, and his favorability numbers are pretty dismal at 33/43.
Bennet leads three of the four in hypothetical contests, 39-35 over Frazier, 40-34 over Buck, and 41-34 over Penry. Beauprez leads him 43-42.
Bennet hasn't had the opportunity yet to define himself positively to the voters in a campaign the way most Senators have, and these numbers seem like they will inevitably improve. Nonetheless it is clear that his reelection is by no means a certainty, and given that it is somewhat surprising that no higher tier Republican candidates have entered the race. This has to be considered one of the better opportunities for a GOP pickup next year.
Full results here.
CQ: Burr Race 'Tossup'
Congressional Quarterly becomes, I believe, the first one of the race raters to put North Carolina's Senate race next year as a tossup.
I think you'll see others follow suit if Roy Cooper enters the race, and given where Richard Burr's approval numbers are I think this race is going to be a tossup even if Cooper doesn't run so long as someone steps up who the Democrats can mold into a good statewide candidate, ala Kay Hagan.
I think you'll see others follow suit if Roy Cooper enters the race, and given where Richard Burr's approval numbers are I think this race is going to be a tossup even if Cooper doesn't run so long as someone steps up who the Democrats can mold into a good statewide candidate, ala Kay Hagan.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
A simple problem for the GOP
You want to know why the GOP has done so badly at the polls of late? On the national survey we'll be releasing Thursday only 18% of voters who described their ideology as moderate are Republicans. 45% are Democrats and 37% are independents.
There are a heck of a lot more conservatives than liberals in this country so if the GOP inched enough to the center that even a third of the moderates felt an affinity for their party they'd probably be in much better shape. I know the concern is always there that you're going to then turn off the conservatives, but honestly, where are they going to go? There is no viable alternative right now for them.
The moderate class is larger than the far right, and Republicans will really have to think about what risks they're willing to take to become a majority party again, especially if next year's election turns out to be the third disaster in a row.
There are a heck of a lot more conservatives than liberals in this country so if the GOP inched enough to the center that even a third of the moderates felt an affinity for their party they'd probably be in much better shape. I know the concern is always there that you're going to then turn off the conservatives, but honestly, where are they going to go? There is no viable alternative right now for them.
The moderate class is larger than the far right, and Republicans will really have to think about what risks they're willing to take to become a majority party again, especially if next year's election turns out to be the third disaster in a row.
Different ideas about sins along generational lines
Our North Carolina poll last week showed majority support for Bev Perdue's proposals to raise the cigarette and alcohol taxes.
Digging into the crosstabs the most interesting thing about those numbers may have been that the age group most supportive of the alcohol tax was the least supportive of the cigarette tax, and the group most supportive of the cigarette tax was one of the least supportive of the alcohol tax.
Voters under 30 gave the cigarette tax hike its highest level of support at 57%. Those over 65 were the least supportive of it at 47%. Clearly the message has pretty much gotten across to the younger generation that smoking is bad, while older North Carolinians are both more likely to be smokers themselves and the most likely to remember the days when tobacco was so much more essential to the state's economy.
It's a different story when it comes to the alcohol tax though, with senior citizens giving that proposal its highest level of support at 65%. The youngest group of voters gives it only 56% support, the lowest of any group besides the 30-45 cohort.
Older voters are more accepting of smoking and less accepting of drinking, while younger voters are more accepting of drinking and less accepting of smoking. That surely says something about the transformation of North Carolina.
Digging into the crosstabs the most interesting thing about those numbers may have been that the age group most supportive of the alcohol tax was the least supportive of the cigarette tax, and the group most supportive of the cigarette tax was one of the least supportive of the alcohol tax.
Voters under 30 gave the cigarette tax hike its highest level of support at 57%. Those over 65 were the least supportive of it at 47%. Clearly the message has pretty much gotten across to the younger generation that smoking is bad, while older North Carolinians are both more likely to be smokers themselves and the most likely to remember the days when tobacco was so much more essential to the state's economy.
It's a different story when it comes to the alcohol tax though, with senior citizens giving that proposal its highest level of support at 65%. The youngest group of voters gives it only 56% support, the lowest of any group besides the 30-45 cohort.
Older voters are more accepting of smoking and less accepting of drinking, while younger voters are more accepting of drinking and less accepting of smoking. That surely says something about the transformation of North Carolina.
Colorado Poll: Obama and Udall not setting the world on fire
Barack Obama won 54% of the vote in Colorado last fall but our first look at his approval rating in the state finds only 49% of voters giving him good marks for his performance so far, with 45% dissenting.
Colorado still had a small Republican identification advantage even as Obama took the state by a solid margin in November, which meant that overwhelming support from independents was key to his success. Our final three pre-election polls showed him leading John McCain by an average of 24 points with that group. They don't seem to be as enthusiastic about Obama since his election though, as they split almost evenly in their assessment of the President. 48% say he's doing a good job but 47% disapprove. That comparative lack of support for Obama's work so far relative to how he did at the polls with independents goes a long way toward explaining his surprisingly low approval ratings.
His numbers are as polarized along party lines as you would expect them to be with 86% of Democrats but only 15% of Republicans approving of his work.
Obama has good numbers with women, African Americans, and Hispanics while he gets net negative reviews from men and whites.
A first look at Mark Udall's approval numbers also shows less than stellar results, with 41% of voters approving and 46% disapproving of the freshman Senator's work so far.
Full results here.
Colorado still had a small Republican identification advantage even as Obama took the state by a solid margin in November, which meant that overwhelming support from independents was key to his success. Our final three pre-election polls showed him leading John McCain by an average of 24 points with that group. They don't seem to be as enthusiastic about Obama since his election though, as they split almost evenly in their assessment of the President. 48% say he's doing a good job but 47% disapprove. That comparative lack of support for Obama's work so far relative to how he did at the polls with independents goes a long way toward explaining his surprisingly low approval ratings.
His numbers are as polarized along party lines as you would expect them to be with 86% of Democrats but only 15% of Republicans approving of his work.
Obama has good numbers with women, African Americans, and Hispanics while he gets net negative reviews from men and whites.
A first look at Mark Udall's approval numbers also shows less than stellar results, with 41% of voters approving and 46% disapproving of the freshman Senator's work so far.
Full results here.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Previewing Colorado
We'll start rolling out our Colorado poll tomorrow with a look at Barack Obama and Mark Udall's approval ratings, followed by Michael Bennet's standing Wednesday, and Bill Ritter's standing Thursday.
One thing folks might not know about Colorado, especially given how Democratic it has voted in the last couple elections, is that it is actually not a state with a large Democratic identification advantage. Its exit poll showed a GOP +1 party breakdown, as did our January survey of the state. The one we'll be releasing this week come out at GOP +2.
The reason Obama and Udall were able to win by such significant margins last fall was very strong performances with independent voters. Each of our last three polls showed both of them winning that group by more than 20 points, Obama by an average of 24 and Udall by an average of 27.
For Obama and Udall to keep up that strong standing...and for Democrats like Bennet and Ritter to keep winning, they have to keep up that solid performance with independent voters. Stay tuned this week to see how they're doing on that front at this point in time.
One thing folks might not know about Colorado, especially given how Democratic it has voted in the last couple elections, is that it is actually not a state with a large Democratic identification advantage. Its exit poll showed a GOP +1 party breakdown, as did our January survey of the state. The one we'll be releasing this week come out at GOP +2.
The reason Obama and Udall were able to win by such significant margins last fall was very strong performances with independent voters. Each of our last three polls showed both of them winning that group by more than 20 points, Obama by an average of 24 and Udall by an average of 27.
For Obama and Udall to keep up that strong standing...and for Democrats like Bennet and Ritter to keep winning, they have to keep up that solid performance with independent voters. Stay tuned this week to see how they're doing on that front at this point in time.
A couple notes on Cooper
Beyond the obvious good news for Roy Cooper that he was leading Richard Burr when we polled the two against each other last week there was some other good stuff for Cooper in the poll:
-The first is that he trailed Burr only 45-36 among white voters. Allocate the undecideds proportionately and you would have Burr winning that demographic just 56-44. For sake of comparison Barack Obama took the state with only 35% of the white vote, and Kay Hagan was able to win by nine points despite exit polls showing she got just 39% of that vote against Elizabeth Dole. Why is that so important? Black turnout is pretty inevitably going to be down next year without Obama at the top of the ticket, and that means for Democrats to win this race they're probably going to have to do better with white voters than they often do...at least 40% most likely. Cooper starts out in a strong position to get that level of support.
-There's also good news for Cooper on the potentially contested primary front. Some might think that the characteristics that make Cooper such a strong general election candidate- his moderate, tough, no nonsense image- might make him susceptible to a challenger from the left within a Democratic primary. But only 6% of voters who describe themselves as liberals say they have a negative opinion of him compared to 57% who view him favorably. That more than likely means a pretty safe route to the nomination. It's there for the taking, he just needs to make his decision.
-The first is that he trailed Burr only 45-36 among white voters. Allocate the undecideds proportionately and you would have Burr winning that demographic just 56-44. For sake of comparison Barack Obama took the state with only 35% of the white vote, and Kay Hagan was able to win by nine points despite exit polls showing she got just 39% of that vote against Elizabeth Dole. Why is that so important? Black turnout is pretty inevitably going to be down next year without Obama at the top of the ticket, and that means for Democrats to win this race they're probably going to have to do better with white voters than they often do...at least 40% most likely. Cooper starts out in a strong position to get that level of support.
-There's also good news for Cooper on the potentially contested primary front. Some might think that the characteristics that make Cooper such a strong general election candidate- his moderate, tough, no nonsense image- might make him susceptible to a challenger from the left within a Democratic primary. But only 6% of voters who describe themselves as liberals say they have a negative opinion of him compared to 57% who view him favorably. That more than likely means a pretty safe route to the nomination. It's there for the taking, he just needs to make his decision.
Where should we poll this week?
This week's choices are Georgia, Illinois, and Oklahoma.
I'm interested in Georgia because when we took Johnny Isakson's approval rating in November it was one of the worst of anyone in the country we've done over the last year. That may have been an anomaly but I'm interested in looking again to see if it really is that bad because if it is Democrats should be paying a lot more attention to this seat.
Illinois I'll just repeat what I said when we gave this option last week: Illinois, namely how Roland Burris and Alexi Giannoulias fare both against each other and Mark Kirk. I guess we could include Jan Schakowsky and William Daley as well although their candidacies seem like less of a sure thing. We'd also look at how Pat Quinn and Lisa Madigan do against each other and GOP hopeful Bill Brady.
Oklahoma it seems increasingly possible that Tom Coburn is not going to run for reelection so we could look at both how he does against some of the big name Democrats in the state and how this might shape up as an open seat contest.
The voting will be open until Wednesday at 10 AM.
I'm interested in Georgia because when we took Johnny Isakson's approval rating in November it was one of the worst of anyone in the country we've done over the last year. That may have been an anomaly but I'm interested in looking again to see if it really is that bad because if it is Democrats should be paying a lot more attention to this seat.
Illinois I'll just repeat what I said when we gave this option last week: Illinois, namely how Roland Burris and Alexi Giannoulias fare both against each other and Mark Kirk. I guess we could include Jan Schakowsky and William Daley as well although their candidacies seem like less of a sure thing. We'd also look at how Pat Quinn and Lisa Madigan do against each other and GOP hopeful Bill Brady.
Oklahoma it seems increasingly possible that Tom Coburn is not going to run for reelection so we could look at both how he does against some of the big name Democrats in the state and how this might shape up as an open seat contest.
The voting will be open until Wednesday at 10 AM.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Saturday Night Odds and Ends
As a scientific pollster it is perhaps a little unorthodox for me to encourage people to go stack an unscientific poll, but go here and vote UNC pitcher Adam Warren for the Lowe's Senior Class Award. I go to almost every Carolina baseball game and Adam has been both a tremendous pitcher and an outstanding student and representative of the program over the last four years. Tyler Hansbrough won this award for basketball and we have someone who deserves to win it for baseball too. You can vote once a day.
Speaking of the stacking of unscientific polls, Colorado was the surprise winner for the 'where should we poll this weekend?' question this week. Illinois and Connecticut both seemed like they had more compelling stuff for us to look at but someone sent around an e-mail telling folks to vote for Colorado so that put it over the top. We'll have approval ratings for Barack Obama and Mark Udall, as well as the same for Michael Bennet and Bill Ritter and looks at how they do against some hypothetical opponents.
I think we'll have a new 'where should we poll' on Monday, perhaps with an Oklahoma option as Tom Coburn wavers over his political future.
We'll also have our monthly national poll this week, looking at Barack Obama's approval rating and some other stuff you'll just have to stay tuned to see.
Have a great rest of the weekend!
Speaking of the stacking of unscientific polls, Colorado was the surprise winner for the 'where should we poll this weekend?' question this week. Illinois and Connecticut both seemed like they had more compelling stuff for us to look at but someone sent around an e-mail telling folks to vote for Colorado so that put it over the top. We'll have approval ratings for Barack Obama and Mark Udall, as well as the same for Michael Bennet and Bill Ritter and looks at how they do against some hypothetical opponents.
I think we'll have a new 'where should we poll' on Monday, perhaps with an Oklahoma option as Tom Coburn wavers over his political future.
We'll also have our monthly national poll this week, looking at Barack Obama's approval rating and some other stuff you'll just have to stay tuned to see.
Have a great rest of the weekend!
Friday, April 17, 2009
Issues in Minnesota Sports
NBA fans in Minnesota are ready for a change. 54% of self described sports fans in our most recent poll said they would not like to see Kevin McHale return next season as coach of the Timberwolves.
The team hasn't been to the playoffs in five years and it appears fans think that McHale, who put together the team's roster while working in the front office before assuming coaching duties this season, is a big part of the problem.
Jacques Lemaire is already out as the coach for the Wild, but a majority in the state wish that he would have stayed. Despite the team missing the playoffs this year 52% think the only leader the franchise has ever known should have stayed for another year.
With the Twins off to a slow start their fans don't think the team will emerge victorious in the AL Central this year. Only 46% think they will make the playoffs with 54% saying another club in the division will move on.
The most interesting thing digging into the crosstabs of this poll is how significant the gender gap is on some of these issues. Women tend to have a much more positive view of the current state of these franchises than men. For instance 57% of females think McHale should stay on as coach, but only 37% of men do. Similarly, 53% of women think that the Twins will take the division but only 40% of men feel that way.
Full results here
The team hasn't been to the playoffs in five years and it appears fans think that McHale, who put together the team's roster while working in the front office before assuming coaching duties this season, is a big part of the problem.
Jacques Lemaire is already out as the coach for the Wild, but a majority in the state wish that he would have stayed. Despite the team missing the playoffs this year 52% think the only leader the franchise has ever known should have stayed for another year.
With the Twins off to a slow start their fans don't think the team will emerge victorious in the AL Central this year. Only 46% think they will make the playoffs with 54% saying another club in the division will move on.
The most interesting thing digging into the crosstabs of this poll is how significant the gender gap is on some of these issues. Women tend to have a much more positive view of the current state of these franchises than men. For instance 57% of females think McHale should stay on as coach, but only 37% of men do. Similarly, 53% of women think that the Twins will take the division but only 40% of men feel that way.
Full results here
Race and Ideology in North Carolina
Here's one to challenge your conventional wisdom: more African Americans in North Carolina describe themselves as conservatives than liberals.
On each of our last three North Carolina polls about 50% of black voters in the state have identified as moderates with the rest relatively split between calling themselves liberals and conservatives but with the advantage to conservative each time.
Averaging the numbers 22% of African Americans in North Carolina are liberals, 50% are moderates, and 28% are conservatives.
That has meaningful implications for North Carolina politics at several levels, but perhaps most relevantly to how candidates try to reach out to the black community in Democratic primaries. Painting yourself as the furthest left candidate is not necessarily the winning strategy.
Looking at our issue polling, African Americans do tend to take the 'liberal' stance on most things. But they tend much more toward the conservative side on things like gay marriage and that appears to have a significant impact on how they portray themselves overall.
There's been a lot of talk and study over the years about conservative white Democrats in North Carolina but looking just within the numbers for voters who identify themselves as Democrats in the state whites are more likely to describe themselves as liberals and less likely to describe themselves as conservatives than African Americans. Among white Democrats 34% say they're liberal, 47% moderate, and 19% conservative. Among black Democrats 24% are liberal, 50% moderate, and 26% conservative.
Probably not what you would expect.
On each of our last three North Carolina polls about 50% of black voters in the state have identified as moderates with the rest relatively split between calling themselves liberals and conservatives but with the advantage to conservative each time.
Averaging the numbers 22% of African Americans in North Carolina are liberals, 50% are moderates, and 28% are conservatives.
That has meaningful implications for North Carolina politics at several levels, but perhaps most relevantly to how candidates try to reach out to the black community in Democratic primaries. Painting yourself as the furthest left candidate is not necessarily the winning strategy.
Looking at our issue polling, African Americans do tend to take the 'liberal' stance on most things. But they tend much more toward the conservative side on things like gay marriage and that appears to have a significant impact on how they portray themselves overall.
There's been a lot of talk and study over the years about conservative white Democrats in North Carolina but looking just within the numbers for voters who identify themselves as Democrats in the state whites are more likely to describe themselves as liberals and less likely to describe themselves as conservatives than African Americans. Among white Democrats 34% say they're liberal, 47% moderate, and 19% conservative. Among black Democrats 24% are liberal, 50% moderate, and 26% conservative.
Probably not what you would expect.
Big State, Low Recognition?
One of the things I'm interested in when looking at our approval ratings for Senators is the level of ambiguity voters in each state have toward their representatives in Washington. It ranges from 46% not having any opinion about Michael Bennet in Colorado when we first polled on him in January shortly after his appointment to only 9% having no opinion about Mitch McConnell in Kentucky probably because he's been in office forever and is on tv all the time:
There is a pretty strong relationship here between the size of the state and the level of ambiguity toward their Senators. Seven of the nine Senators with the greatest percentage of voters having no opinion about them come from states with at least 13 electoral votes. The only exceptions are appointed Senators- Bennet and Kaufman- who have never had to stand before the voters. Out of the nine Senators whose constituents have the highest level of familiarity with them, only one comes from a state that has more than 11 electoral voters. That's Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas, and that fact certainly helps to explain why the Governor's office is probably going to be hers for the taking barring some major shift in perceptions about her in the next year.
So it does seem that it's a lot easier for Senators from smaller states to keep up higher levels of visbility and name recognition. And looking at the folks near the top of the list who are up for reelection in 2010 you can see the price of that- Voinovich and Martinez are retiring at least in part because there was a very good chance they were going to lose and Burr is extremely vulnerable as well.
Richard Burr and Elizabeth Dole certainly have themselves to blame more than anything else for the difficulty they've had maintaining the level of visibility necessary to earn a smooth reelection, but these numbers do indicate that as the state's population continues to grow it makes it harder for officials to stay connected with their constituents. Certainly a lesson to Kay Hagan to start worrying about that now rather than 2013.
| Senator | % of voters with no opinion | State’s Electoral Votes |
| Michael Bennet ( | 46 | 9 |
| Johnny Isakson ( | 45 | 15 |
| Ted Kaufman ( | 41 | 3 |
| Mel Martinez ( | 40 | 27 |
| Richard Burr ( | 34 | 15 |
| Kay Hagan ( | 34 | 15 |
| George Voinovich ( | 32 | 20 |
| Bill Nelson ( | 29 | 27 |
| Jim Webb ( | 23 | 13 |
| Jim Bunning ( | 18 | 8 |
| Tom Carper ( | 17 | 3 |
| Kit Bond ( | 16 | 11 |
| Mark Pryor ( | 16 | 6 |
| John McCain ( | 16 | 10 |
| Blanche Lincoln ( | 15 | 6 |
| Amy Klobuchar ( | 13 | 10 |
| Kay Bailey Hutchison ( | 11 | 34 |
| Mitch McConnell ( | 9 | 8 |
There is a pretty strong relationship here between the size of the state and the level of ambiguity toward their Senators. Seven of the nine Senators with the greatest percentage of voters having no opinion about them come from states with at least 13 electoral votes. The only exceptions are appointed Senators- Bennet and Kaufman- who have never had to stand before the voters. Out of the nine Senators whose constituents have the highest level of familiarity with them, only one comes from a state that has more than 11 electoral voters. That's Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas, and that fact certainly helps to explain why the Governor's office is probably going to be hers for the taking barring some major shift in perceptions about her in the next year.
So it does seem that it's a lot easier for Senators from smaller states to keep up higher levels of visbility and name recognition. And looking at the folks near the top of the list who are up for reelection in 2010 you can see the price of that- Voinovich and Martinez are retiring at least in part because there was a very good chance they were going to lose and Burr is extremely vulnerable as well.
Richard Burr and Elizabeth Dole certainly have themselves to blame more than anything else for the difficulty they've had maintaining the level of visibility necessary to earn a smooth reelection, but these numbers do indicate that as the state's population continues to grow it makes it harder for officials to stay connected with their constituents. Certainly a lesson to Kay Hagan to start worrying about that now rather than 2013.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Minnesota Politician Approvals
Amy Klobuchar has the highest approval rating of any US Senator PPP has tested in the last year. 62% of Minnesota voters like the job she's doing with just 25% dissenting.
Not surprisingly 87% of her own party's voters are behind her. But she also gets a 30% approval rating from Republicans, a higher level of crossover support than we find for most Senators. And she's very popular with independents as well, earning a 59/26 spread from them.
Another key to her popularity is that we don't see some of the gaps along demographic lines with her approval numbers that Democrats tend to have. For instance she has a 62% rating with both men and women, not exhibiting the usual gender gap that finds the party's politicians faring more poorly with men. Older voters are another demographic that tend to lean more toward the conservative side, but Klobuchar has a 71% approval with senior citizens, actually her best numbers among any age group.
For the last three months Klobuchar has been doing double duty while the state's other Senate seat is resolved, and voters seem to appreciate her for it.
Tim Pawlenty's numbers, although not terrible, tell a different story. 47% of voters approve of his work with 40% disapproving. He gets strong support from Republicans but only 19% of Democrats give him good marks, a much smaller level of bipartisan support than what Klobuchar is enjoying. He is over 50% with independents, leading his overall numbers into positive territory.
Full results here.
Not surprisingly 87% of her own party's voters are behind her. But she also gets a 30% approval rating from Republicans, a higher level of crossover support than we find for most Senators. And she's very popular with independents as well, earning a 59/26 spread from them.
Another key to her popularity is that we don't see some of the gaps along demographic lines with her approval numbers that Democrats tend to have. For instance she has a 62% rating with both men and women, not exhibiting the usual gender gap that finds the party's politicians faring more poorly with men. Older voters are another demographic that tend to lean more toward the conservative side, but Klobuchar has a 71% approval with senior citizens, actually her best numbers among any age group.
For the last three months Klobuchar has been doing double duty while the state's other Senate seat is resolved, and voters seem to appreciate her for it.
Tim Pawlenty's numbers, although not terrible, tell a different story. 47% of voters approve of his work with 40% disapproving. He gets strong support from Republicans but only 19% of Democrats give him good marks, a much smaller level of bipartisan support than what Klobuchar is enjoying. He is over 50% with independents, leading his overall numbers into positive territory.
Full results here.
Our Senate Approval Ratings
We have done approval ratings on 18 Senators since last summer. Here's how their most recent numbers stack up:
| Senator | Approval |
| Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) | 62/25 |
| Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) | 58/31 |
| Tom Carper (D-DE) | 57/26 |
| Kit Bond (R-MO) | 57/27 |
| Mark Pryor (D-AR) | 54/30 |
| John McCain (R-AZ) | 53/31 |
| Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) | 45/40 |
| Jim Webb (D-VA) | 44/33 |
| Mitch McConnell (R-KY) | 44/47 |
| Bill Nelson (D-FL) | 42/29 |
| Ted Kaufman (D-DE) | 35/24 |
| Richard Burr (R-NC) | 35/31 |
| Kay Hagan (D-NC) | 33/33 |
| Michael Bennet (D-CO) | 33/21 |
| Johnny Isakson (R-GA) | 30/25 |
| George Voinovich (R-OH) | 30/38 |
| Jim Bunning (R-KY) | 28/54 |
| Mel Martinez (R-FL) | 23/37 |
Obama improves NC approval figures
Barack Obama's approval numbers in North Carolina continue to be solid, with 54% of voters in the state expressing support for the job he's doing this month compared to 38% who disapprove. Those numbers are up a tick from March, when the breakdown was 53/40.
Among both Democrats and Republicans Obama's numbers are nearly identical to where they were a month ago, with 85% of Democrats but only 13% of GOP identifiers giving him good marks. The overall improvement his numbers comes from a better standing with independents. They were evenly split in their appraisals of Obama previously but now approve of what he's doing by a 50/46 margin.
There is a signficant gender gap in voter perceptions about how Obama is faring, with 60% of women but only 48% of men approving of his work. Not surprisingly he is getting very good reviews from two demographics groups that put him over the top last year at the polls, with 92% of African Americans and 63% of voters under 30 saying he's doing a good job.
His approval is above 50% in every region of the state, showing that his job approval is more well distributed across the state than his votes were, when he only won the Triangle. The Triangle and greater Charlotte give him his best numbers, the Mountains and northeastern North Carolina his weakest.
New Senator Kay Hagan's job approval splits evenly at 33/33 this month.
Full results here.
Among both Democrats and Republicans Obama's numbers are nearly identical to where they were a month ago, with 85% of Democrats but only 13% of GOP identifiers giving him good marks. The overall improvement his numbers comes from a better standing with independents. They were evenly split in their appraisals of Obama previously but now approve of what he's doing by a 50/46 margin.
There is a signficant gender gap in voter perceptions about how Obama is faring, with 60% of women but only 48% of men approving of his work. Not surprisingly he is getting very good reviews from two demographics groups that put him over the top last year at the polls, with 92% of African Americans and 63% of voters under 30 saying he's doing a good job.
His approval is above 50% in every region of the state, showing that his job approval is more well distributed across the state than his votes were, when he only won the Triangle. The Triangle and greater Charlotte give him his best numbers, the Mountains and northeastern North Carolina his weakest.
New Senator Kay Hagan's job approval splits evenly at 33/33 this month.
Full results here.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Minnesota ready for it to be over
Most Minnesota voters are ready for the state's Senate election to be resolved:
-63% think that Norm Coleman should concede.
-59% think Tim Pawlenty should certify Al Franken as the winner of the election.
-59% also think that Franken should be seated in the Senate immediately.
We broke the poll down based on who folks voted for in the fall. Not surprisingly 91% of Franken voters think that Coleman should give up. So do 81% of those who voted for Dean Barkley, and even 31% who supported Coleman.
92% of Franken supporters think that Pawlenty should certify the results and that he should be seated immediately. 73% of Barkley's voters think the outcome should be certified and 67% are in favor of Franken's being sworn in now. 23-24% of Coleman's backers support those moves.
Public opinion on these issues probably has a lot to do with most voters feeling that due process has been followed after the judicial ruling on Monday that Franken won the election, but voters in the state may also want an extra vote in the Senate to support the President's agenda. Barack Obama has an impressive 60/30 approval rating in Minnesota.
Full results here
-63% think that Norm Coleman should concede.
-59% think Tim Pawlenty should certify Al Franken as the winner of the election.
-59% also think that Franken should be seated in the Senate immediately.
We broke the poll down based on who folks voted for in the fall. Not surprisingly 91% of Franken voters think that Coleman should give up. So do 81% of those who voted for Dean Barkley, and even 31% who supported Coleman.
92% of Franken supporters think that Pawlenty should certify the results and that he should be seated immediately. 73% of Barkley's voters think the outcome should be certified and 67% are in favor of Franken's being sworn in now. 23-24% of Coleman's backers support those moves.
Public opinion on these issues probably has a lot to do with most voters feeling that due process has been followed after the judicial ruling on Monday that Franken won the election, but voters in the state may also want an extra vote in the Senate to support the President's agenda. Barack Obama has an impressive 60/30 approval rating in Minnesota.
Full results here
Breaking Down Carney and Castle
Former Lieutenant Governor John Carney is in as a Democratic challenger to Mike Castle for Delaware's House seat next year.
When we polled that then hypothetical contest last month we found Castle leading 49-32 but there were a couple pretty strong indications within the numbers that Carney could make a race of it:
-The 19% of respondents who said then that they were undecided was a very Democratic leaning lot. 50% were Democrats and 35% were independents with just 15% Republicans. More than two thirds of them expressed approval for Barack Obama's job performance at that time, a rate higher than his overall 63% in the state. Carney has an inherent edge with those voters if he can get across a message that he needs to be elected to help enact the Obama agenda.
-Castle's strong performance in the poll was predicated on receiving 34% of the Democratic vote. Certainly he does have an unusual level of crossover support for a politician, but part of the reason he polls so well across party lines is that Democrats have put forth such weak challengers to him for the most part that many in the rank and file have just become accustomed to voting for Castle. That could well change with an energetic and well funded Democratic opponent. A full third of the Democrats who said they would vote for Castle don't have an opinion about Carney one way or the other so as he becomes more familiar to voters in the state he may get back some of that support from within his party.
Castle, with nearly 30 years in statewide office, certainly starts out as a strong favorite. But Carney has a chance.
When we polled that then hypothetical contest last month we found Castle leading 49-32 but there were a couple pretty strong indications within the numbers that Carney could make a race of it:
-The 19% of respondents who said then that they were undecided was a very Democratic leaning lot. 50% were Democrats and 35% were independents with just 15% Republicans. More than two thirds of them expressed approval for Barack Obama's job performance at that time, a rate higher than his overall 63% in the state. Carney has an inherent edge with those voters if he can get across a message that he needs to be elected to help enact the Obama agenda.
-Castle's strong performance in the poll was predicated on receiving 34% of the Democratic vote. Certainly he does have an unusual level of crossover support for a politician, but part of the reason he polls so well across party lines is that Democrats have put forth such weak challengers to him for the most part that many in the rank and file have just become accustomed to voting for Castle. That could well change with an energetic and well funded Democratic opponent. A full third of the Democrats who said they would vote for Castle don't have an opinion about Carney one way or the other so as he becomes more familiar to voters in the state he may get back some of that support from within his party.
Castle, with nearly 30 years in statewide office, certainly starts out as a strong favorite. But Carney has a chance.
Cooper still leads Burr
When we polled a potential Roy Cooper-Richard Burr Senate contest in December we found the Democratic Attorney General leading the Republican incumbent 39-34. Fast forward four months and we find the same basic result, with Cooper now holding a 41-37 edge. There's no doubt who the Democrats' strongest potential contender for this seat is and there's no doubt that if Cooper entered the race it would become a tossup at the least, if not even a slight Democratic advantage. Burr's name would go up there with Chris Dodd and Jim Bunning's as the most vulnerable incumbents in the country.
Burr's approval rating continues its usual position in the mid-30s, with 35% of voters in the state expressing approval for his job performance this month and 31% dissenting. By comparison Elizabeth Dole was at a much better, although still mediocre, 43% at this point in the cycle two years ago.
Cooper has a better than 2:1 favorability ratio among those respondents who had an opinion about him one way or the other, with 41% saying they have a favorable opinion of him to 20% who express an unfavorable one.
Cooper shells Burr among moderate voters in the hypothetical contest, leading 56-21.
PPP also tested Congressman Mike McIntyre in the poll as a possible Burr opponent, and found him trailing just 39-34. That's the second best performance PPP has found for any of the Democrats it has tested against Burr. McIntyre is not particularly well known statewide, with 56% of voters having no opinion about him, but he polls well because of an exceptionally strong performance in southeastern North Carolina where his district is.
His 49% favorability rating in that region is better than Burr's in any corner of the state and better than Cooper's in every part but the Triangle. He leads Burr 48-33 in the horse race there, even as Cooper and Burr are knotted. There's no indication McIntyre is interested in running for statewide office but these numbers certainly go a long way toward explaining how he's been so successful in his Republican leaning district over the years.
Full results here
Burr's approval rating continues its usual position in the mid-30s, with 35% of voters in the state expressing approval for his job performance this month and 31% dissenting. By comparison Elizabeth Dole was at a much better, although still mediocre, 43% at this point in the cycle two years ago.
Cooper has a better than 2:1 favorability ratio among those respondents who had an opinion about him one way or the other, with 41% saying they have a favorable opinion of him to 20% who express an unfavorable one.
Cooper shells Burr among moderate voters in the hypothetical contest, leading 56-21.
PPP also tested Congressman Mike McIntyre in the poll as a possible Burr opponent, and found him trailing just 39-34. That's the second best performance PPP has found for any of the Democrats it has tested against Burr. McIntyre is not particularly well known statewide, with 56% of voters having no opinion about him, but he polls well because of an exceptionally strong performance in southeastern North Carolina where his district is.
His 49% favorability rating in that region is better than Burr's in any corner of the state and better than Cooper's in every part but the Triangle. He leads Burr 48-33 in the horse race there, even as Cooper and Burr are knotted. There's no indication McIntyre is interested in running for statewide office but these numbers certainly go a long way toward explaining how he's been so successful in his Republican leaning district over the years.
Full results here
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Iraq done as a top issue in NC
As recently as December 2007 more North Carolinians named the War in Iraq as their top issue than anything else, with 30% saying it was their main concern followed by the economy at 28%. By January 2008 the economy had eclipsed it.
Still, the war remained near the top of the heap for much of 2008, still polling at 20% in a poll we released on July 1st. It was down to 15% by September 10th, then all the way to 11% by September 20th after the economy started really going bad, hit single digits for the first time on October 13th, and with our poll this month has now hit a new low at 4%.
It may be time to remove that as a response option and swap out something more generic about foreign policy or terrorism because Iraq clearly just is not at the top of very many voters' minds anymore.
Still, the war remained near the top of the heap for much of 2008, still polling at 20% in a poll we released on July 1st. It was down to 15% by September 10th, then all the way to 11% by September 20th after the economy started really going bad, hit single digits for the first time on October 13th, and with our poll this month has now hit a new low at 4%.
It may be time to remove that as a response option and swap out something more generic about foreign policy or terrorism because Iraq clearly just is not at the top of very many voters' minds anymore.
Tomorrow...
We'll have our release on the North Carolina Senate 2010 picture and also look at what Minnesotans think about the Senate race now that a court in the state has declared Al Franken the winner.
As long as we were polling Minnesota we took an approval rating on its one current Senator, and it looks like Amy Klobuchar has a very good shot at finding herself on the top of this chart. Very popular.
Stay tuned for that stuff tomorrow.
As long as we were polling Minnesota we took an approval rating on its one current Senator, and it looks like Amy Klobuchar has a very good shot at finding herself on the top of this chart. Very popular.
Stay tuned for that stuff tomorrow.
Voters support Perdue sin tax hikes
The economy may be bad but North Carolina voters are willing to accept some tax increases- at least the ones on cigarettes and alcohol that Bev Perdue has proposed.
60% support her surcharge on alcohol purchases and 53% say they're fine with a one dollar per pack hike on cigarettes.
Although Democrats are more supportive than Republicans of the increases, public opinion is actually not that polarized along party lines on these issues. A lot of Republicans support the increases and a lot of Democrats oppose them, a different story from polling we did on the stimulus package a few months ago that found around 80% of Democrats supportive and around 80% of Republicans opposed.
The cigarette increase finds 59% of Democrats, 55% of independents, and 43% of Republicans in support. For the alcohol increase it's 71% of Democrats, 54% of independents, and 49% of Republicans.
The state's pivotal group of self described moderate voters is highly supportive of both proposals- 67% on alcohol and 62% on cigarettes.
There is a significant urban/rural divide on the question of the cigarette tax increase with 60% of suburbanites, 54% of urban dwellers, but only 41% of rural voters who are more likely to be reliant on the tobacco economy in support.
Full results here
60% support her surcharge on alcohol purchases and 53% say they're fine with a one dollar per pack hike on cigarettes.
Although Democrats are more supportive than Republicans of the increases, public opinion is actually not that polarized along party lines on these issues. A lot of Republicans support the increases and a lot of Democrats oppose them, a different story from polling we did on the stimulus package a few months ago that found around 80% of Democrats supportive and around 80% of Republicans opposed.
The cigarette increase finds 59% of Democrats, 55% of independents, and 43% of Republicans in support. For the alcohol increase it's 71% of Democrats, 54% of independents, and 49% of Republicans.
The state's pivotal group of self described moderate voters is highly supportive of both proposals- 67% on alcohol and 62% on cigarettes.
There is a significant urban/rural divide on the question of the cigarette tax increase with 60% of suburbanites, 54% of urban dwellers, but only 41% of rural voters who are more likely to be reliant on the tobacco economy in support.
Full results here
Perdue approval falls
Bev Perdue's approval rating has fallen over the last month from 44/35 to 41/40 following the unveiling of her budget proposal.
The drop is relatively steady across party lines with a ten point drop among Democrats (from +49 to +39), a seven point one with Republicans (from -39 to -46), and a seven point one with independents (from -2 to -9).
Digging deeper into the numbers though it appears that the more left leaning a voter is the more likely their opinion of Perdue is to have suffered since mid-March. Among respondents describing themselves as liberals she's gone from +56 to +41, among moderates she's gone from +31 to +20, and among conservatives her numbers are actually slightly improved from -34 to -33. Some liberals have complained about Perdue's budget, wishing that she would be more willing to generate additional revenue to keep programs they value at their current levels of funding or greater.
Some clear trends are beginning to emerge in Perdue's numbers now that she's been in office for a little more than three months. Her numbers have been their weakest in the Triad and in the Mountains on each of our approval polls. This time around she's at 38/48 in the former and at 35/38 in the latter.
There's some good news for her as well though. For the third time in a row this month her numbers in the greater Charlotte region outshine her overall statewide performance, an indication that outreach efforts where she fared poorest against Pat McCrory last fall are paying some dividends. Her strongest numbers are generally coming in the Triangle, where her work gets the most attention in the media. It's a good sign for her that where voters are most familiar with what she's doing she receives her highest marks and it may mean she just needs to do more to boost her visibility in other parts of the state.
Full results here
The drop is relatively steady across party lines with a ten point drop among Democrats (from +49 to +39), a seven point one with Republicans (from -39 to -46), and a seven point one with independents (from -2 to -9).
Digging deeper into the numbers though it appears that the more left leaning a voter is the more likely their opinion of Perdue is to have suffered since mid-March. Among respondents describing themselves as liberals she's gone from +56 to +41, among moderates she's gone from +31 to +20, and among conservatives her numbers are actually slightly improved from -34 to -33. Some liberals have complained about Perdue's budget, wishing that she would be more willing to generate additional revenue to keep programs they value at their current levels of funding or greater.
Some clear trends are beginning to emerge in Perdue's numbers now that she's been in office for a little more than three months. Her numbers have been their weakest in the Triad and in the Mountains on each of our approval polls. This time around she's at 38/48 in the former and at 35/38 in the latter.
There's some good news for her as well though. For the third time in a row this month her numbers in the greater Charlotte region outshine her overall statewide performance, an indication that outreach efforts where she fared poorest against Pat McCrory last fall are paying some dividends. Her strongest numbers are generally coming in the Triangle, where her work gets the most attention in the media. It's a good sign for her that where voters are most familiar with what she's doing she receives her highest marks and it may mean she just needs to do more to boost her visibility in other parts of the state.
Full results here
Monday, April 13, 2009
Issues in NC
The North Carolina poll we'll start releasing tomorrow shows moral and family values as the biggest issue for 17% of voters in the state. I think that's the highest we've ever found it. Any theories as to why that would be? The only thing I can think of is the recent moves toward gay marriage in Iowa and Vermont may have that more on voters' radar screens.
The trend is mostly just occurring among Republicans. Whereas a month ago 49% of them named the economy as their top concern with moral and family values second at 23% that gap has now narrowed to 38-29. I guess it's also possible that with the economy improving ever so slightly folks might feel like they have the 'luxury' to be concerned about something else.
The trend is mostly just occurring among Republicans. Whereas a month ago 49% of them named the economy as their top concern with moral and family values second at 23% that gap has now narrowed to 38-29. I guess it's also possible that with the economy improving ever so slightly folks might feel like they have the 'luxury' to be concerned about something else.
The PVI's and North Carolina
Charlie Cook has his newest round of Partisan Voting Index (PVI) figures for Congressional districts around the country out based on the 2008 election results, and they're a tribute to the good job North Carolina Democrats have done with the state's redistricting.
4 of the 50 most Republican districts in the country are in North Carolina with Howard Coble's 25th, Patrick McHenry's 34th, Walter Jones' 39th, and Virginia Foxx's 48th.
To put in perspective how remarkable that is you can add up all of the other Congressional districts from states that went for Barack Obama and there are only five of them among the 50 most Republican in the country, barely more than North Carolina alone.
Why is that a good thing for Democrats? Bunching the Republicans so heavily into a few districts has created five districts that lie in the median of competitiveness- 146th to 290th- and there are Democrats representing all five of them in Congress. For the most part Democrats just run better campaigns in North Carolina than Republicans do and that means holding a disproportionate share of the seats in the state's delegation- so long as the districts are competitive enough to be winnable in the first place.
It also means though that it will be hard to carve out a 9th Democratic Congressional district with the 2010 redistricting if the state gets a 14th seat.
Anyway, interesting stuff.
4 of the 50 most Republican districts in the country are in North Carolina with Howard Coble's 25th, Patrick McHenry's 34th, Walter Jones' 39th, and Virginia Foxx's 48th.
To put in perspective how remarkable that is you can add up all of the other Congressional districts from states that went for Barack Obama and there are only five of them among the 50 most Republican in the country, barely more than North Carolina alone.
Why is that a good thing for Democrats? Bunching the Republicans so heavily into a few districts has created five districts that lie in the median of competitiveness- 146th to 290th- and there are Democrats representing all five of them in Congress. For the most part Democrats just run better campaigns in North Carolina than Republicans do and that means holding a disproportionate share of the seats in the state's delegation- so long as the districts are competitive enough to be winnable in the first place.
It also means though that it will be hard to carve out a 9th Democratic Congressional district with the 2010 redistricting if the state gets a 14th seat.
Anyway, interesting stuff.
Vote on where we poll
Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois are the choices this week:
We haven't polled Colorado since January so it would be interesting to see how Michael Bennet's doing after three months in office and how he might stack up to some of the Republicans currently being mentioned as possible candidates for next year. Bill Ritter also looked surprisingly vulnerable the last time we polled so we can see if that was an outlier or a trend.
We've seen two sharply divergent polls from Connecticut over the last few weeks with Research 2000 showing Chris Dodd with mediocre but not dire numbers and Quinnipiac showing him very much on the edge of political death. We could see where our numbers fall on that spectrum, and also get an idea of how much better off Democrats would be with Richard Blumenthal as their nominee instead of Dodd.
Finally, we could look at Illinois, namely how Roland Burris and Alexi Giannoulias fare both against each other and Mark Kirk. I guess we could include Jan Schakowsky and William Daley as well although their candidacies seem like less of a sure thing. We'd also look at how Pat Quinn and Lisa Madigan do against each other and GOP hopeful Bill Brady.
Vote at the top of the page, it'll be open until Wednesday at 10 AM.
We haven't polled Colorado since January so it would be interesting to see how Michael Bennet's doing after three months in office and how he might stack up to some of the Republicans currently being mentioned as possible candidates for next year. Bill Ritter also looked surprisingly vulnerable the last time we polled so we can see if that was an outlier or a trend.
We've seen two sharply divergent polls from Connecticut over the last few weeks with Research 2000 showing Chris Dodd with mediocre but not dire numbers and Quinnipiac showing him very much on the edge of political death. We could see where our numbers fall on that spectrum, and also get an idea of how much better off Democrats would be with Richard Blumenthal as their nominee instead of Dodd.
Finally, we could look at Illinois, namely how Roland Burris and Alexi Giannoulias fare both against each other and Mark Kirk. I guess we could include Jan Schakowsky and William Daley as well although their candidacies seem like less of a sure thing. We'd also look at how Pat Quinn and Lisa Madigan do against each other and GOP hopeful Bill Brady.
Vote at the top of the page, it'll be open until Wednesday at 10 AM.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Next week...
We'll have our big monthly North Carolina poll.
Our look at Richard Burr's standing will also include a refresh on how Roy Cooper does against him, as well as Congressman Mike McIntyre. There's no indication McIntyre is interested but he could make a strong statewide candidate some day and we've never done any polling on him.
We'll also look at Bev Perdue's approval and how her proposals for cigarette and alcohol tax increases fare in the court of public opinion.
And of course we'll see if Barack Obama is maintaining his relatively strong standing with North Carolina voters.
We'll start rolling it out Tuesday. Have a good holiday weekend!
Our look at Richard Burr's standing will also include a refresh on how Roy Cooper does against him, as well as Congressman Mike McIntyre. There's no indication McIntyre is interested but he could make a strong statewide candidate some day and we've never done any polling on him.
We'll also look at Bev Perdue's approval and how her proposals for cigarette and alcohol tax increases fare in the court of public opinion.
And of course we'll see if Barack Obama is maintaining his relatively strong standing with North Carolina voters.
We'll start rolling it out Tuesday. Have a good holiday weekend!
Independents in Kentucky
Independents in Kentucky are apparently a discontented lot.
On our recent poll they had a negative opinion of almost every politician in the state across party lines- Barack Obama, Steve Beshear, Mitch McConnell, Jim Bunning, Ben Chandler, Dan Mongiardo, and David Williams all had more independents say they disapproved of their job performance or had an unfavorable opinion about them than had anything positive to say.
They were split equally on Crit Luallen and had a favorable opinion just of Trey Grayson and Jack Conway. 46% said they viewed Grayson positively with 20% holding a negative perception and for Conway the spread was 35/28.
One thing I found interesting about the poll though is that Kentucky actually seems to have fewer independent voters to begin with than other states. Just 11% of our respondents didn't self identify with either the Democratic or Republican Party and when I crosschecked that with the exit poll from last year it was just 15%, barely half of the 29% of voters nationally last year who described themselves as independents.
I guess it's not a surprise that in a state where the vast majority of voters do have a party, the ones who don't are a little skeptical of politicians in general.
On our recent poll they had a negative opinion of almost every politician in the state across party lines- Barack Obama, Steve Beshear, Mitch McConnell, Jim Bunning, Ben Chandler, Dan Mongiardo, and David Williams all had more independents say they disapproved of their job performance or had an unfavorable opinion about them than had anything positive to say.
They were split equally on Crit Luallen and had a favorable opinion just of Trey Grayson and Jack Conway. 46% said they viewed Grayson positively with 20% holding a negative perception and for Conway the spread was 35/28.
One thing I found interesting about the poll though is that Kentucky actually seems to have fewer independent voters to begin with than other states. Just 11% of our respondents didn't self identify with either the Democratic or Republican Party and when I crosschecked that with the exit poll from last year it was just 15%, barely half of the 29% of voters nationally last year who described themselves as independents.
I guess it's not a surprise that in a state where the vast majority of voters do have a party, the ones who don't are a little skeptical of politicians in general.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
NC is still a conservative state
As Katherine mentioned yesterday, when we asked folks last week whether they were more concerned that government deal with the environment or illegal immigration, they chose the latter 56-34.
Even among Democrats the environment won out by just a narrow margin, 47-43. Among Republicans (74-18) and independents (57-30) it was no contest.
If you wondered why Bev Perdue ran ads at the end of the campaign last year suggesting that Pat McCrory was running for 'Governor of Tijuana' there's your answer. At this point in North Carolina candidates speaking out on the environment just isn't going to be the vote getter that making yourself out to be the tough candidate on illegal immigration is.
One lesson in the poll is that the environmental movement still needs to do more to attract African Americans to the cause. Even though Democrats overall said that the environment was a bigger issue for them, blacks said it was illegal immigration by a 49-38 margin. It will take building more support across the entire Democratic coalition for environmental activists to make their issues a bigger deal for elected officials.
There is hope that change is on the way though. While 57-60% of the other three age groups all said they were more concerned about illegal immigration, voters under 30 said the environment by a 49-40 margin. Generational change may make a big difference in the issue priorities of North Carolinians.
Even among Democrats the environment won out by just a narrow margin, 47-43. Among Republicans (74-18) and independents (57-30) it was no contest.
If you wondered why Bev Perdue ran ads at the end of the campaign last year suggesting that Pat McCrory was running for 'Governor of Tijuana' there's your answer. At this point in North Carolina candidates speaking out on the environment just isn't going to be the vote getter that making yourself out to be the tough candidate on illegal immigration is.
One lesson in the poll is that the environmental movement still needs to do more to attract African Americans to the cause. Even though Democrats overall said that the environment was a bigger issue for them, blacks said it was illegal immigration by a 49-38 margin. It will take building more support across the entire Democratic coalition for environmental activists to make their issues a bigger deal for elected officials.
There is hope that change is on the way though. While 57-60% of the other three age groups all said they were more concerned about illegal immigration, voters under 30 said the environment by a 49-40 margin. Generational change may make a big difference in the issue priorities of North Carolinians.
4th District Growing and Voting
Swing State Project continues its excellent review of the 2008 election results by Congressional district and finds that North Carolina's 4th District, represented by David Price, cast the third largest number of votes of any district in the country last year.
That's not a huge surprise. Raleigh/Cary was the fastest growing metro area nationwide between 2007 and 2008 and that's a huge chunk of Price's district. It's also a pretty engaged segment of the population so high turnout has a lot to do with the numbers in addition to the population growth.
It's a trend that goes a long way toward explaining Barack Obama's surprise victory in the state last year. He took the 4th by 116,000 votes. The only district that gave the President a larger margin of victory in terms of raw votes was Mel Watt's.
It also has pretty clear implications for redistricting- some of Price's territory is going to have to be reallocated whether North Carolina gets a 14th Congressional seat or not. That may be an opportunity to help shore up Bob Etheridge's district, which is safe for Democrats as long as he's in it but could be competitive in an open seat situation.
That's not a huge surprise. Raleigh/Cary was the fastest growing metro area nationwide between 2007 and 2008 and that's a huge chunk of Price's district. It's also a pretty engaged segment of the population so high turnout has a lot to do with the numbers in addition to the population growth.
It's a trend that goes a long way toward explaining Barack Obama's surprise victory in the state last year. He took the 4th by 116,000 votes. The only district that gave the President a larger margin of victory in terms of raw votes was Mel Watt's.
It also has pretty clear implications for redistricting- some of Price's territory is going to have to be reallocated whether North Carolina gets a 14th Congressional seat or not. That may be an opportunity to help shore up Bob Etheridge's district, which is safe for Democrats as long as he's in it but could be competitive in an open seat situation.
Bunning and Grayson
Trey Grayson has said he won't challenge Jim Bunning. But nothing is permanent in politics so it's interesting to delve into the numbers to see how Republican voters in Kentucky feel about the two.
The largest group of GOP voters has a positive opinion of both of them, at 29%. The next biggest group has a favorable opinion of Grayson and disapproves of Bunning's job performance. They make up 18% of Republicans in the state. 15% have not mind their minds up about either of the men. 12% dislike Bunning but have no opinion of Grayson yet. 10% like Bunning and have no opinion of Grayson yet. 6% like Grayson and are ambivalent toward Bunning, and the same percentage say they dislike both officials. Only 3% say they approve of how Bunning's doing and have an unfavorable opinion of Grayson. That's not much of a base to start from in a contested primary. There is basically no one who has not formed an opinion about Bunning and has a negative view of Grayson.
Combine the folks who like Grayson but not Bunning, the folks who like Grayson and have no opinion about Bunning, and the folks who don't know enough about Grayson to have an opinion but have a poor opinion of Bunning and you're at 36%. Combine the folks who like Bunning but not Grayson and the ones who like Bunning and haven't formed an opinion about Grayson and you're at 13%.
That would leave half the electorate either liking both men, holding no opinion about both, or disliking both and Grayson needing to pull only about 30% of those remaining voters to get to 50%+1.
Grayson likely won't challenge Bunning. But he'd probably win if he did.
The largest group of GOP voters has a positive opinion of both of them, at 29%. The next biggest group has a favorable opinion of Grayson and disapproves of Bunning's job performance. They make up 18% of Republicans in the state. 15% have not mind their minds up about either of the men. 12% dislike Bunning but have no opinion of Grayson yet. 10% like Bunning and have no opinion of Grayson yet. 6% like Grayson and are ambivalent toward Bunning, and the same percentage say they dislike both officials. Only 3% say they approve of how Bunning's doing and have an unfavorable opinion of Grayson. That's not much of a base to start from in a contested primary. There is basically no one who has not formed an opinion about Bunning and has a negative view of Grayson.
Combine the folks who like Grayson but not Bunning, the folks who like Grayson and have no opinion about Bunning, and the folks who don't know enough about Grayson to have an opinion but have a poor opinion of Bunning and you're at 36%. Combine the folks who like Bunning but not Grayson and the ones who like Bunning and haven't formed an opinion about Grayson and you're at 13%.
That would leave half the electorate either liking both men, holding no opinion about both, or disliking both and Grayson needing to pull only about 30% of those remaining voters to get to 50%+1.
Grayson likely won't challenge Bunning. But he'd probably win if he did.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Bunning popularity hits new low
Only 28% of Kentucky voters approve of Jim Bunning's job performance, our newest survey finds. 18% have no opinion and 54% say they disapprove of his work. That's the highest level of disapproval for any of the 18 Senators across the country PPP has gauged approval for since last summer. The previous worst before this Kentucky survey was 40% for Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.
Bunning trails all four of the most mentioned possible Democratic candidates in hypothetical contests. The strongest potential contender at this point appears to be Congressman Ben Chandler, who has a 14 point edge. Attorney General Jack Conway, Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo lead by 9, 8, and 7 points respectively.
There does not appear to be much doubt that Republicans would be better off with Secretary of State Trey Grayson as their nominee. 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, with just 19% holding a negative one. He also fares better than Bunning against all of the possible Democratic contenders, trailing Chandler by 6 and Conway by 4 but leading Luallen by 2 and Mongiardo by 4.
It's no surprise that Grayson's favorability among Democrats and independents is superior to Bunning's but he's actually doing much better with Republicans too. While only 42% approve of the job the incumbent is doing with 36% giving him poor marks, 54% of GOP voters have a positive opinion of Grayson with just 9% dissenting. Grayson has said he won't run unless Bunning retires but it appears he would have a very decent shot of winning in a primary if he changed his mind.
Another mentioned Republican alternative, State Senate President David Williams, does not fare particularly well. Only 28% of voters view him favorably and he trails all the potential Democratic contenders by larger margins than Bunning.
November 2010 is far in the distance and Kentucky has shown itself to be a pretty conservative state at the federal level in recent elections. But at this point it appears the chances of Jim Bunning being reelected are very slim.
Full results here
Bunning trails all four of the most mentioned possible Democratic candidates in hypothetical contests. The strongest potential contender at this point appears to be Congressman Ben Chandler, who has a 14 point edge. Attorney General Jack Conway, Auditor Crit Luallen, and Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo lead by 9, 8, and 7 points respectively.
There does not appear to be much doubt that Republicans would be better off with Secretary of State Trey Grayson as their nominee. 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, with just 19% holding a negative one. He also fares better than Bunning against all of the possible Democratic contenders, trailing Chandler by 6 and Conway by 4 but leading Luallen by 2 and Mongiardo by 4.
It's no surprise that Grayson's favorability among Democrats and independents is superior to Bunning's but he's actually doing much better with Republicans too. While only 42% approve of the job the incumbent is doing with 36% giving him poor marks, 54% of GOP voters have a positive opinion of Grayson with just 9% dissenting. Grayson has said he won't run unless Bunning retires but it appears he would have a very decent shot of winning in a primary if he changed his mind.
Another mentioned Republican alternative, State Senate President David Williams, does not fare particularly well. Only 28% of voters view him favorably and he trails all the potential Democratic contenders by larger margins than Bunning.
November 2010 is far in the distance and Kentucky has shown itself to be a pretty conservative state at the federal level in recent elections. But at this point it appears the chances of Jim Bunning being reelected are very slim.
Full results here
Voters' Support for Progressive Issues
By Katherine Rumbaugh, PPP Spring Fellow
Last week, we tested people's opinions on some environmental issues, specifically the proposed ban on using non-recyclable plastic bags and the use of stimulus funds to make low-income houses more energy efficient.
For the ban on plastic bags at major retail stores:
Support: 47%
Oppose: 31%
Not Sure: 22%
For the allocation of stimulus funds for making low-income housing energy efficient:
Support: 48%
Oppose: 35%
Not Sure: 17%
It would appear that North Carolinians actually care about some environmental issues. But when we asked about which was more important, environmental issues or illegal immigration, illegal immigration won out, 56% to 34%. So even though the state went blue in the election last November, North Carolina isn't becoming super-liberal just yet.
That being said, the way we phrased the question might make some difference. We asked "Which do you think is more important for the government to deal with...?" rather than "Which do you care more about" or "Which is a more important problem to solve," either of which might elicit a different response.
We also tested voters' opinions on stem cell research, which also, surprisingly, yielded relatively high support; 54% support and 30% oppose it. Those numbers are highly differentiated along party lines, with 68% of Democrats but only 33% of Republicans in favor of it.
Stem cell research and environmental issues don't rank highest among issues that North Carolinians care about, but considering these specific issues have fairly high support, maybe the state is gradually becoming more progressive.
Full results here
Last week, we tested people's opinions on some environmental issues, specifically the proposed ban on using non-recyclable plastic bags and the use of stimulus funds to make low-income houses more energy efficient.
For the ban on plastic bags at major retail stores:
Support: 47%
Oppose: 31%
Not Sure: 22%
For the allocation of stimulus funds for making low-income housing energy efficient:
Support: 48%
Oppose: 35%
Not Sure: 17%
It would appear that North Carolinians actually care about some environmental issues. But when we asked about which was more important, environmental issues or illegal immigration, illegal immigration won out, 56% to 34%. So even though the state went blue in the election last November, North Carolina isn't becoming super-liberal just yet.
That being said, the way we phrased the question might make some difference. We asked "Which do you think is more important for the government to deal with...?" rather than "Which do you care more about" or "Which is a more important problem to solve," either of which might elicit a different response.
We also tested voters' opinions on stem cell research, which also, surprisingly, yielded relatively high support; 54% support and 30% oppose it. Those numbers are highly differentiated along party lines, with 68% of Democrats but only 33% of Republicans in favor of it.
Stem cell research and environmental issues don't rank highest among issues that North Carolinians care about, but considering these specific issues have fairly high support, maybe the state is gradually becoming more progressive.
Full results here
Monday, April 6, 2009
Kentucky split on Obama
When it comes to their early opinions on Barack Obama's job performance Kentucky voters are showing similar trends to the rest of the country: good numbers from Democrats, very little support from Republicans, and increasingly poor reviews from independents. In the Bluegrass State what that all adds up to is 46% approving and 45% disapproving of Obama's work so far.
71% of Democrats but only 16% of Republicans give the President positive marks. Among independents there is a 57% level of disapproval compared to just 35% who approve. PPP recently found negative numbers for Obama among independents on both a national poll and an Arkansas poll.
PPP measured approval for the state's Governor and two Senators as well. Steve Beshear has the best numbers with 47% of voters expressing support for his work and 37% disapproving. His reviews are a little more bipartisan than Obama, with fewer Democrats (66%) but more Republicans (27%) approving of his performance.
Mitch McConnell, after a surprisingly weak performance at the polls last fall, continues to have mediocre numbers with more voters disapproving than approving of his work by a margin of 47-44.
Jim Bunning has by far the worst rating of any of the state's major politicians. PPP took a wide look at the Senator's current standing and those findings will be released Wednesday.
Independent voters in Kentucky seem to just dislike their politicians across the board. In addition to Obama Beshear, McConnell, and Bunning all get net negative ratings from them as well.
Full results here.
71% of Democrats but only 16% of Republicans give the President positive marks. Among independents there is a 57% level of disapproval compared to just 35% who approve. PPP recently found negative numbers for Obama among independents on both a national poll and an Arkansas poll.
PPP measured approval for the state's Governor and two Senators as well. Steve Beshear has the best numbers with 47% of voters expressing support for his work and 37% disapproving. His reviews are a little more bipartisan than Obama, with fewer Democrats (66%) but more Republicans (27%) approving of his performance.
Mitch McConnell, after a surprisingly weak performance at the polls last fall, continues to have mediocre numbers with more voters disapproving than approving of his work by a margin of 47-44.
Jim Bunning has by far the worst rating of any of the state's major politicians. PPP took a wide look at the Senator's current standing and those findings will be released Wednesday.
Independent voters in Kentucky seem to just dislike their politicians across the board. In addition to Obama Beshear, McConnell, and Bunning all get net negative ratings from them as well.
Full results here.
Let's see some data...
Very few things drive me much more crazy than the media picking up some far fetched narrative and beating it to death whether there's any evidence it's really true or not. That's what's happening with this whole 'Michigan State is playing for the whole state of Michigan' bunk this week.
If I had known it was going to be played up this much I would have run a poll on it last week to see just how important MSU winning the national championship is to average citizens of the state, and how much they thought a victory would enhance their lives in these troubled times for the whole state. I bet the answers are a) a majority of the state either doesn't care or hopes MSU loses because they're Michigan fans and b) for most of those who do care, beyond the folks who are hard core Sparties, it won't be on their mind much past Wednesday.
I'm not just saying this because I went to UNC, because I grew up in Michigan, and everyone I've heard from who still lives in the state I've heard from since Saturday night has said they're rooting for UNC because they hate MSU. Since the whole 'MSU is bearing the burden of Michigan's wounds' is completely made up and based on anecdotal evidence, I could just as easily push a story line that the UNC basketball team is bearing the burden of the suffering city of Ann Arbor because the hated MSU winning the national championship would just be more salt in the wound of a struggling city that just lost its daily newspaper and largest private employer. That would be a crock, but so is the narrative that is getting pushed.
As far as MSU playing for the city of Detroit itself, I remember seeing some data the Free Press published ten years ago showing that Democrats in the state were much more likely to be Michigan fans than Republicans, and since Detroit is overwhelmingly Democratic I kind of doubt residents of the city who have fallen on hard times are avidly pulling for the Spartans to bring them happiness.
I guess if the Detroit papers can't afford seven day delivery they can't afford to do any survey research to see if the story they're pushing has any actual basis in fact but I think it's a bunch of bunk to keep journalists amused when they know the national championship game may not be all that competitive.
If I had known it was going to be played up this much I would have run a poll on it last week to see just how important MSU winning the national championship is to average citizens of the state, and how much they thought a victory would enhance their lives in these troubled times for the whole state. I bet the answers are a) a majority of the state either doesn't care or hopes MSU loses because they're Michigan fans and b) for most of those who do care, beyond the folks who are hard core Sparties, it won't be on their mind much past Wednesday.
I'm not just saying this because I went to UNC, because I grew up in Michigan, and everyone I've heard from who still lives in the state I've heard from since Saturday night has said they're rooting for UNC because they hate MSU. Since the whole 'MSU is bearing the burden of Michigan's wounds' is completely made up and based on anecdotal evidence, I could just as easily push a story line that the UNC basketball team is bearing the burden of the suffering city of Ann Arbor because the hated MSU winning the national championship would just be more salt in the wound of a struggling city that just lost its daily newspaper and largest private employer. That would be a crock, but so is the narrative that is getting pushed.
As far as MSU playing for the city of Detroit itself, I remember seeing some data the Free Press published ten years ago showing that Democrats in the state were much more likely to be Michigan fans than Republicans, and since Detroit is overwhelmingly Democratic I kind of doubt residents of the city who have fallen on hard times are avidly pulling for the Spartans to bring them happiness.
I guess if the Detroit papers can't afford seven day delivery they can't afford to do any survey research to see if the story they're pushing has any actual basis in fact but I think it's a bunch of bunk to keep journalists amused when they know the national championship game may not be all that competitive.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Next Week...
We're in the field in Kentucky right now. Jim Bunning has had lots more drama since Kos polled the race in February so we were interested to see the state of it now. One thing I can tell you unequivocally based on the numbers I've seen so far- there's no doubt the GOP would be better off with Trey Grayson as its nominee and that's not because of what will happen to Bunning's numbers after the Democrats spend millions attacking him, that's because of how poor his numbers already are.
We're going in the field in North Carolina next week. I'm happy to entertain suggestions for who we should poll hypothetically against Richard Burr. We'll keep on testing make believe candidates until we have some real ones. We'll probably also take another look at Roy Cooper vs. Burr since we haven't done it since December. It would just be interesting to see if there are any new storylines within those numbers.
Any other ideas for NC poll questions are welcome as well.
I'm off to the Final Four after work today. I grew up in metro Detroit so the prospect of sleeping in my own bed to see the Tar Heels win the national championship is a pretty good one. When I was home in December I saw UNC crush MSU at Ford Field and then saw Michigan beat Dook in Ann Arbor three days later so I have good karma for basketball games I've gone to in the state so far this year...blogging may be light at the start of the week...Go Heels!
We're going in the field in North Carolina next week. I'm happy to entertain suggestions for who we should poll hypothetically against Richard Burr. We'll keep on testing make believe candidates until we have some real ones. We'll probably also take another look at Roy Cooper vs. Burr since we haven't done it since December. It would just be interesting to see if there are any new storylines within those numbers.
Any other ideas for NC poll questions are welcome as well.
I'm off to the Final Four after work today. I grew up in metro Detroit so the prospect of sleeping in my own bed to see the Tar Heels win the national championship is a pretty good one. When I was home in December I saw UNC crush MSU at Ford Field and then saw Michigan beat Dook in Ann Arbor three days later so I have good karma for basketball games I've gone to in the state so far this year...blogging may be light at the start of the week...Go Heels!
Independents could hurt McAuliffe
Some of the most powerful voters this year in the Democratic primary for Governor of Virginia might not be Democrats.
With no contest for Governor on the Republican side, it seems likely that a high percentage of independents who bother to vote in the primary will choose the Democratic ballot. Voters who don't identify with either party have accounted for 16% of the likely electorate in each of our last two polls.
That's bad news for Terry McAuliffe because he is not popular at this point with that swath of the electorate. He has had a net negative favorability rating with independents on each of our last two polls. The one this week showed 34% viewing him negatively and only 21% positively, and four weeks before that the numbers were 31% unfavorable and just 21% favorable.
Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran both have strong ratings among the independents who have formed an opinion of them.
McAuliffe is also in the basement when it comes to the horse race with that group. In the most recent poll Deeds led with 21% compared to 19% for Moran and 12% for McAuliffe. Prior to that it was Deeds with 20%, Moran with 18%, and McAuliffe with 11%.
In a race that appears close enough right now that anything could tip the scales, McAuliffe's lack of popularity with independents could be a liability for him come election day.
With no contest for Governor on the Republican side, it seems likely that a high percentage of independents who bother to vote in the primary will choose the Democratic ballot. Voters who don't identify with either party have accounted for 16% of the likely electorate in each of our last two polls.
That's bad news for Terry McAuliffe because he is not popular at this point with that swath of the electorate. He has had a net negative favorability rating with independents on each of our last two polls. The one this week showed 34% viewing him negatively and only 21% positively, and four weeks before that the numbers were 31% unfavorable and just 21% favorable.
Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran both have strong ratings among the independents who have formed an opinion of them.
McAuliffe is also in the basement when it comes to the horse race with that group. In the most recent poll Deeds led with 21% compared to 19% for Moran and 12% for McAuliffe. Prior to that it was Deeds with 20%, Moran with 18%, and McAuliffe with 11%.
In a race that appears close enough right now that anything could tip the scales, McAuliffe's lack of popularity with independents could be a liability for him come election day.
The importance of the Triangle to Obama's victory
How important is the Triangle to continued Democratic gains in federal elections in North Carolina?
It was the only media market made up mostly of North Carolina counties to vote for Barack Obama last fall.
Obama took the region 56-43, racking up a plurality of 186,000 votes.
His next best performances were in the Triad and greater Charlotte, each of which he lost 52-47. In the Triad his deficit was 43,000 votes and in Charlotte it was 66,000.
He lost 53-46 in Asheville, Greenville, and Wilmington. In Asheville it was a deficit of 22k votes, in Greenville 25, and in Wilmington 16k.
Add up those losses in all of the other state's media markets and it comes to 172k, allowing that 186k margin in the Triangle to make up for losing everywhere else.
There's not much doubt what region's growth is contributing the most to North Carolina's increased competitiveness in Presidential politics.
It was the only media market made up mostly of North Carolina counties to vote for Barack Obama last fall.
Obama took the region 56-43, racking up a plurality of 186,000 votes.
His next best performances were in the Triad and greater Charlotte, each of which he lost 52-47. In the Triad his deficit was 43,000 votes and in Charlotte it was 66,000.
He lost 53-46 in Asheville, Greenville, and Wilmington. In Asheville it was a deficit of 22k votes, in Greenville 25, and in Wilmington 16k.
Add up those losses in all of the other state's media markets and it comes to 172k, allowing that 186k margin in the Triangle to make up for losing everywhere else.
There's not much doubt what region's growth is contributing the most to North Carolina's increased competitiveness in Presidential politics.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
The Smoking Ban and Public Opinion
A couple interesting notes on today's smoking ban vote in the NC House:
-Although it was largely a party line vote with Democrats in favor and Republicans opposed, almost a quarter of the votes did not fit that trend with 18 Republicans voting in favor of the bill and 11 Democrats voting against it. That unusual level of non-party unity may be a reflection of the fact that public opinion about the smoking ban is actually not particularly polarized along party lines. When we polled it in February 68% of Democratic voters and 62% of Republicans expressed support for it, not a particularly large disparity. This was not an issue where GOP representatives needed to vote against it to keep the base happy.
-Most of the Democrats voting against the bill represent districts in the tobacco growing country of eastern North Carolina, but our survey actually found a level of support for the smoking ban in that region equal to the statewide support of the bill. 64% of North Carolinians overall expressed approval for the proposal and so did 64% in the east. The place where we found voters much less supportive than overall was the Triad where it earned just 52% favorability.
-Although it was largely a party line vote with Democrats in favor and Republicans opposed, almost a quarter of the votes did not fit that trend with 18 Republicans voting in favor of the bill and 11 Democrats voting against it. That unusual level of non-party unity may be a reflection of the fact that public opinion about the smoking ban is actually not particularly polarized along party lines. When we polled it in February 68% of Democratic voters and 62% of Republicans expressed support for it, not a particularly large disparity. This was not an issue where GOP representatives needed to vote against it to keep the base happy.
-Most of the Democrats voting against the bill represent districts in the tobacco growing country of eastern North Carolina, but our survey actually found a level of support for the smoking ban in that region equal to the statewide support of the bill. 64% of North Carolinians overall expressed approval for the proposal and so did 64% in the east. The place where we found voters much less supportive than overall was the Triad where it earned just 52% favorability.
VA: could high undecideds portend low turnout?
With only a little more than two months left to go until the Democratic primary for Governor in Virginia our latest poll found 45% of voters still undecided.
By comparison, two months before the Democratic primary for Governor in North Carolina last year only 19% had yet to make up their mind.
We're using a pretty tight likely voter screen for our Virginia polls, calling only those folks who voted in at least one Democratic primary between 2005 and 2008. Even still I wonder if a lot of those 45% undecided are going to end up staying at home.
People vote when they have a dog in the fight, and right now almost half of the likely primary electorate in Virginia does not. There just doesn't seem to be much voter interest in this election, and even though the campaigns will certainly intensify in the coming weeks, I would expect the primary to see pretty low turnout based on the high level of ambivalence we're finding in our polls.
By comparison, two months before the Democratic primary for Governor in North Carolina last year only 19% had yet to make up their mind.
We're using a pretty tight likely voter screen for our Virginia polls, calling only those folks who voted in at least one Democratic primary between 2005 and 2008. Even still I wonder if a lot of those 45% undecided are going to end up staying at home.
People vote when they have a dog in the fight, and right now almost half of the likely primary electorate in Virginia does not. There just doesn't seem to be much voter interest in this election, and even though the campaigns will certainly intensify in the coming weeks, I would expect the primary to see pretty low turnout based on the high level of ambivalence we're finding in our polls.
Going both ways on IVR
Republican pollster David Hill pointed out yesterday in The Hill that one of the findings of the AAPOR report on the polling in the early primaries last year was that there was no difference in accuracy between the surveys conducted by live operators and those done with IVR.
Most folks willing to take a dispassionate look at the actual track records of the two types of polls in terms of their accuracy at calling elections have already come to that conclusion, but Hill points out that it's particularly surprising to see AAPOR, many of the members of which have been quite critical of automated polling, grant that fact.
Some folks are apparently stuck in the 90s though. I guess Blanche Lincoln didn't like our poll results last week because in an interview with Politico, she 'dismissed the survey’s automated format of questioning likely voters.'
I think someone's giving Senator Lincoln bad advice because the much better way to spin the poll numbers, which weren't that bad for her, would have been to say that the poll showed no one has ever heard of any of the Republicans thinking about running and she's in solid position to be reelected.
Instead she decided to criticize us with a tired and increasingly obsolete line of attack. By doing so she essentially acknowledged the numbers were bad for her when there was plenty of positive data within the poll she could have used to emphasize instead.
My overall take on Lincoln is that most voters in that small state already know what they think of her one way or the other, and that while she's not as popular as a Mike Beebe or Mark Pryor, the balance of favorability is enough that she should get reelected with something in the 55% range she received in both 1998 or 2004 unless either Mike Huckabee runs or the Republicans end up not even trying.
Most folks willing to take a dispassionate look at the actual track records of the two types of polls in terms of their accuracy at calling elections have already come to that conclusion, but Hill points out that it's particularly surprising to see AAPOR, many of the members of which have been quite critical of automated polling, grant that fact.
Some folks are apparently stuck in the 90s though. I guess Blanche Lincoln didn't like our poll results last week because in an interview with Politico, she 'dismissed the survey’s automated format of questioning likely voters.'
I think someone's giving Senator Lincoln bad advice because the much better way to spin the poll numbers, which weren't that bad for her, would have been to say that the poll showed no one has ever heard of any of the Republicans thinking about running and she's in solid position to be reelected.
Instead she decided to criticize us with a tired and increasingly obsolete line of attack. By doing so she essentially acknowledged the numbers were bad for her when there was plenty of positive data within the poll she could have used to emphasize instead.
My overall take on Lincoln is that most voters in that small state already know what they think of her one way or the other, and that while she's not as popular as a Mike Beebe or Mark Pryor, the balance of favorability is enough that she should get reelected with something in the 55% range she received in both 1998 or 2004 unless either Mike Huckabee runs or the Republicans end up not even trying.
Weak ABC crowd in North Carolina
We've known for years that there are basketball fans across North Carolina who wear the 'ABC' label proudly- 'Anyone But Carolina.' This week, for what we believe to be the first time, Public Policy Polling has conducted a scientific statewide poll to figure out just how many of those folks there are and the answer is that it's not a very significant segment of the population. 13% of residents in the state say they are explicitly rooting against UNC to win the national championship this weekend in Detroit, while 67% say they hope the Tar Heels pull it through and 21% don't care.
That would seem to be an indication that while the more vociferously anti-Carolina supporters of Duke, State, Wake, and other programs in the state may make the most noise a decent segment of their fans are happy to jump on the bandwagon and root for UNC out of state pride. Of course this was just a poll of North Carolinians so we don't know what the Dook fans in Jersey think.
Support for the Tar Heels is pretty steady across race, gender, and regional lines throughout the state but there is actually a relatively strong division along party lines. 75% of Democrats but only 58% of Republicans say they're cheering for UNC. I guess conservative distrust of those liberals up at Chapel Hill may bleed over even to sports.
North Carolinians are also pretty confident that UNC will be bringing home the trophy next Tuesday. 61% think the Heels will win the national championship, while 14% think someone else will win and 25% aren't sure.
Full results here
That would seem to be an indication that while the more vociferously anti-Carolina supporters of Duke, State, Wake, and other programs in the state may make the most noise a decent segment of their fans are happy to jump on the bandwagon and root for UNC out of state pride. Of course this was just a poll of North Carolinians so we don't know what the Dook fans in Jersey think.
Support for the Tar Heels is pretty steady across race, gender, and regional lines throughout the state but there is actually a relatively strong division along party lines. 75% of Democrats but only 58% of Republicans say they're cheering for UNC. I guess conservative distrust of those liberals up at Chapel Hill may bleed over even to sports.
North Carolinians are also pretty confident that UNC will be bringing home the trophy next Tuesday. 61% think the Heels will win the national championship, while 14% think someone else will win and 25% aren't sure.
Full results here
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Top issues across party lines in NC
Not surprisingly it doesn't matter whether you're a Democrat, Republican, or independent in North Carolina- your top issue right now is the economy.
That's true for 60% of Democrats, 55% of independents, and 49% of Republicans in the state on our latest poll.
When it comes to the second or third biggest issues for individual voters though you find a fair amount of variety. For Democrats education is the second biggest thing at 13%, followed by health care at 8%. For Republicans moral and family values take the runner up slot at 23% with taxes in third at 9%. Independents split a traditionally progressive issue and a conservative one in the second and third spots- moral and family values are second while education is third.
It's interesting to note that even among GOP voters only 4% name immigration as their top concern. While our polling certainly still shows North Carolinians are pretty conservative when it comes to issues involving immigration, the intensity about those feelings does not appear to be what it was two years ago.
That's true for 60% of Democrats, 55% of independents, and 49% of Republicans in the state on our latest poll.
When it comes to the second or third biggest issues for individual voters though you find a fair amount of variety. For Democrats education is the second biggest thing at 13%, followed by health care at 8%. For Republicans moral and family values take the runner up slot at 23% with taxes in third at 9%. Independents split a traditionally progressive issue and a conservative one in the second and third spots- moral and family values are second while education is third.
It's interesting to note that even among GOP voters only 4% name immigration as their top concern. While our polling certainly still shows North Carolinians are pretty conservative when it comes to issues involving immigration, the intensity about those feelings does not appear to be what it was two years ago.
Moran/Deeds split could help McAuliffe
Our latest look at the Virginia Democratic contest for Governor yesterday found that there were more voters with a negative opinion of Terry McAuliffe than Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds combined.
The good news for McAuliffe? Those voters are very much divided in their support between his two opponents. 41% of respondents who view the former DNC head unfavorably support Moran and 31% support Deeds.
Because of that phenomenon it is entirely possible that McAuliffe could continue to be the most unpopular candidate with the primary electorate all the way through election day...and still win the Democratic nomination with 35-40% of the vote if the anti vote is split too evenly.
If that's the case it will be interesting to see if Democrats come together as well behind McAuliffe as Clinton supporters eventually did behind Barack Obama last fall, or if McAuliffe's unpopularity with a third of the Democratic electorate bleeds through to the general election, resulting in an easy victory for Bob McDonnell.
The good news for McAuliffe? Those voters are very much divided in their support between his two opponents. 41% of respondents who view the former DNC head unfavorably support Moran and 31% support Deeds.
Because of that phenomenon it is entirely possible that McAuliffe could continue to be the most unpopular candidate with the primary electorate all the way through election day...and still win the Democratic nomination with 35-40% of the vote if the anti vote is split too evenly.
If that's the case it will be interesting to see if Democrats come together as well behind McAuliffe as Clinton supporters eventually did behind Barack Obama last fall, or if McAuliffe's unpopularity with a third of the Democratic electorate bleeds through to the general election, resulting in an easy victory for Bob McDonnell.
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